THE POWER RANK

Can a defense force turnovers? A Oklahoma State, Stanford preview.

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Oklahoma State forced 5 turnovers in 44-10 rout over Oklahoma in this year’s Bedlam rivalry game. The turnovers had such an impact that Oklahoma didn’t score a touchdown until late in the 4th quarter despite racking up 358 yards. Oklahoma State preaches creating turnovers in practice, as players are required to repeat plays or run afterwards if they do not force enough turnovers. Defensive coordinator Bill Young’s units have forced 42, 34 and 30 turnovers in his 3 year tenure, well above the 22 turnovers that an average bowl subdivision defense gets a year.

But can a team really force turnovers?

An analytic approach to turnovers

Bill Barnwell at Grantland has done the most complete study of forcing turnovers. After the Pittsburgh Steelers only forced 2 turnovers in their first 5 games this year, Barnwell asked whether turnovers in the first 5 games can predict turnovers in the remaining 11 games. To answer this question, he looked at all NFL teams from 1990 through 2010 and calculated the correlation coefficient between early and late season turnovers. This coefficient is related to a scatter plot in which each point represents a team’s turnovers in the first 5 games and last 11 games in its horizontal and vertical coordinate respectively. The correlation coefficient, which ranges from -1 to 1, describes the scatter of this plot. See Wikipedia for pictures corresponding to values of the coefficient. A correlation coefficient of 0 implies high scatter with no trend between the two variables.

For his NFL study, which included over 600 data points, Barnwell found a correlation coefficient of 0.14, a very weak correlation between turnovers in the first 5 games and last 11 games. To think about this a different way, the square of the correlation coefficient is a measure of how much of the variation in the turnovers the last 11 games is explained by the turnovers in the first 5 games. Only 2% of this variation is predicted by early season results. For example, after getting only 2 turnovers in their first 5 games, Pittsburgh has forced 12 turnovers in their last 10 games.

Barnwell’s study suggests that Oklahoma State’s high turnover total will not correlate with their Fiesta Bowl performance. Turnovers are not that useful in predicting future performance. While Oklahoma State’s defense is 9th in our defense rankings, which is scoring defense that accounts for strength of schedule, this might be too high because of their good fortune in turnovers.

Offense and Defense rankings for Stanford and Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl

How Oklahoma State’s defense will match up with Stanford

To better understand how Oklahoma State’s defense will match up with Stanford’s 5th ranked offense, let’s break down rushing and passing separately. According to cfbstats.com, Oklahoma State’s defense gives up 4.34 rush yards per carry, 72nd worst in the country. This softness was apparent on a cold night in Ames. In overtime, Oklahoma State needed to prevent Iowa State from scoring to force another overtime. Instead, they gave up a touchdown on 3 straight running plays. Of course, this poor defense might have been caused by an urgency to force a fumble. But this just shows that a defense can’t necessarily force a turnover when it needs it most. Stanford has a run first offense that gains 5.33 yards per play. Quarterback Andrew Luck barely threw a pass when the running game racked up 10.1 yards per carry against Washington. If Stanford can get an early lead, Oklahoma State’s defense will see a steady diet of running plays.

Through the air, Oklahoma State’s gives up 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 15th best in the nation according to cfbstats.com. They give up fewer yards per attempt than Oregon, a defensive unit that gave Stanford fits in the passing game. After that game, Bay area media would not stop talking about how Cardinal receivers couldn’t get separation from Oregon’s secondary. Life might be difficult for Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense if they fall behind and have to throw on the majority of plays.

The most recent team rankings predict Oklahoma State by 6.6 over Stanford. We’ll see how turnovers affect the actual outcome of the game.

For more content, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Ranking college football bowl games: a viewer’s guide.
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—3 types of college football coaches that got fired.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff

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BCS is bad
Voters are really biased
Time for a playoff

Image for College Football Rankings, Week 14, 2011

With the close of the regular season, college football left its fans with another mess. The BCS, or Brash, Conceited and Smug, picked Alabama over Oklahoma State to play in the national championship game against LSU. In a system that only allows 2 teams to settle the title on the field, the Cowboys got left in the dark despite a 44-10 thumping of rival Oklahoma this Saturday. Moreover, there is no Rose Bowl consolation for Oklahoma State. Last year, undefeated TCU forgot about the inequities of the system after their Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin. The Fiesta Bowl won’t have the same charm for the Cowboys.

But Oklahoma State only has its own conference to blame. In 2008, SEC commissioner Mike Silve proposed a plus one plan, a four team playoff that would have given Oklahoma State a chance to play for the national title this year. Then Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe opposed the idea. Every college football fan in America would love to see Oklahoma State face Alabama while Stanford takes on LSU. The Power Rank gives the following odds for winning this playoff.

LSU: 49.4%
Alabama: 28.8%
Oklahoma State: 14.6%
Stanford: 7.1%

LSU’s odds of winning the national title do not decrease much from its 59.2% chance of beating Alabama, but the system also allows for two additional and deserving teams to crash the party. A four team playoff doesn’t solve all of college football’s problems, as the discussion would shift from the merits of the 3rd to the 5th best team in the country. Oregon, Boise State, and Wisconsin have legitimate arguments for their inclusion in this system.

Hence, a sixteen team playoff, such as the system proposed by the authors of Death to the BCS, would be even better. The bracket would include all eleven conference champions as well as five at large bids and offer potential first round upsets by teams like Boise State and TCU. It also gives the SEC the chance to show true dominance by placing 3 or more teams in the final 4. Since football is America’s sport, the excitement over this playoff would dwarf that of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The prospect of cinderella upsets would make even the NFL playoffs seems boring.

There are many reasons we won’t see this true playoff any time soon. We speculated last year that a sixteen team playoff would funnel a huge fraction of revenue to the SEC because of their recent dominance, an unpalatable result for Big 10 commissioner Jim Delany. But another reason surfaced from watching ESPN’s documentary SEC Storied: The Play That Changed College Football. When SEC commissioner Roy Kramer introduced the first conference championship game in 1992, everyone thought it was a terrible idea. Primarily, it put up one last roadblock to an undefeated Alabama team that could eliminate them from the national title hunt. As the championship game between Florida and Alabama unfolded, the Crimson Tide’s worst nightmares were coming true, as the underdog Gators tied the game at 21 in the 4th quarter. Only an interception returned for an Alabama touchdown broke the tension. ABC immediately called to schedule another championship game for the next year, and the rest is history.

Now, everyone universally accepts the conference championship game as a good thing. Even the Big 10 and Pac 12, the two conferences most seeped in tradition because of their affiliation with the Rose Bowl, have now expanded to 12 teams to stage a championship game. It only took almost 20 years to follow the SEC. Change comes at a glacial pace in college football. There is no hope for a sixteen team playoff after current BCS agreement concludes at the end of the 2013 season. But, we can get a little excited over the whispers about a plus one system in the next cycle.

Thanks to long time follower Fred Vint for this week’s haiku. He moonlights as a mind reader.

For more content, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

– About The Power Rank.
– College football playoff.
– The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.
– Wisconsin as a 68% chance of beating Michigan State.

LSU, Alabama have a 70% of a rematch in the National Championship game

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LSU, Bama
BCS tranquility
Seventy percent

College Football Rankings, Week 12, November 19, 2011

The insanity started Friday night. Oklahoma State, ranked 2nd in the BCS, traveled to Iowa State, and the game turned into a much closer affair than anyone imagined. Iowa State cornerback Leonard Johnson harassed Justin Blackmon all night, holding the Oklahoma State receiver to 99 yards on 10 catches. The road team Cowboys let the underdog Cyclones stay in the game with a soft defense and 5 turnovers. The last turnover, a Brandon Weedon interception in double overtime, led to an epic 37-31 Iowa State victory.

The insanity continued on Saturday night. Oklahoma, the 5th ranked team in the BCS, tied the game with Baylor at 38 with less than a minute remaining in the game. After the ensuing kickoff, Baylor played for overtime with a running play on 1st and 10. Oklahoma quickly called timeout in hopes of getting the ball back in regulation. This aggressive call backfired when Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin, an Olympic caliber 400 meter hurdler, ripped of two long runs to move the ball up the field. Finally, at the Oklahoma 34, Griffin scrambled left, stopped in the face of the Oklahoma defense, and fired a pass deep into the right corner of the end zone. The beauty of the pass was its location in which only his receiver could catch it. Oklahoma’s national championship dreams evaporated into the Texas night.

The insanity next surfaced in Oregon coach Chip Kelly’s head. Down 3 to USC with 2:54 minutes remaining, Oregon, 4th in the BCS, had 3 timeouts but 86 yards in front of them. Inexplicably, coach Kelly used only one timeout before the drive stalled in USC territory. No matter how well an uptempo offense works for the Ducks, two extra plays (3 if they didn’t take a knee in the middle of the field to set up the field goal) might have resulted in a touchdown or better field position. The field goal attempt sailed wide left, giving USC a 38-35 win. Oregon won’t play in the national championship game again this year.

The losses to 3 of the top 5 teams has prompted media outlets to apply the term “chaos” to this incarnation of the BCS. But chaos doesn’t apply when a region of the county just smiles at the sight of LSU, Alabama and Arkansas at the top of the BCS rankings. It’s BCS tranquility down south. With LSU and Alabama in the first and second position respectively, these two teams only need to win their remaining games to play in the national championship game. The Power Rank gives LSU a 77% chance to beat both Arkansas at home and Georgia in the SEC championship game while Alabama has a 90% chance to beat rival Auburn. This implies a 70% chance for a LSU versus Alabama rematch in New Orleans this January. While a fresh matchup might feel more satisfying, LSU (1) and Alabama (2) are both 5 points above any other team in The Power Rank.

Two other scenarios merit some attention. What if Arkansas makes good on the 13% chance they have of upsetting LSU in Baton Rouge? Assuming Alabama beats Auburn, this leaves 3 one loss teams in the SEC West. To break this stalemate, the SEC picks the top team in the BCS, expect if the 2nd place team is within 5 places, because then it selects the head to head winner between the top two teams. Make sense? Good, because then you can explain it to us. We won’t attempt to predict how the BCS will reshuffle these 3 teams in this situation.

Last, we consider an Alabama loss to Auburn, an event with 10% likelihood, coupled with an LSU win over Arkansas (87%). The second losses for Alabama and Arkansas would open a spot in the national championship game for a non-SEC West team. To calculate the likelihood that any team ranked 4th or lower in the BCS makes the game, we will assume each team must win their remaining games while the teams above them (except LSU) must lose at least once. The Power Rank gives the following chance for these teams.

Oklahoma State: 5.2%
Virginia Tech: 0.9%
Stanford: 1.7%
Boise State: 0.6%

Stanford has a higher chance than Virginia Tech because The Power Rank puts the latter at 28th, much lower than their BCS rank of 5th. Despite only one loss, Virginia Tech has squeaked by bad teams (Duke, North Carolina) in their wins. Needless to say, these teams have very slim hopes of playing in the national championship game. However, up to two of them could end up in the top 4, which guarantees a BCS bowl game and its hefty payout.

Have any scenarios that we’re missing? Please leave a comment. Here are some situations we considered but didn’t use above.

LSU loses to Arkansas, makes the SEC championship game through BCS magic, but then loses to Georgia in Atlanta: 1.4%.

LSU loses two games by the above scenario and Alabama loses to Auburn (This is the true BCS chaos scenario, since LSU, Alabama and Arkansas would each have 2 losses but SEC fans would still demand one of them play in the national championship game): 0.14%.

Alabama, LSU have a 34% chance of a rematch in the National Championship game

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Bama, LSU
So close, needed overtime
Thirty-four percent

With 11 minutes left in the Game of the Century, Alabama had a 1st and 10 at the LSU 28 yard line with the game tied at 6. Receiver Marquis Maze lined up in the shotgun, with the usual quarterback AJ McCarron split wide left. Upon taking the snap, Maze lofts the ball towards an open tight end Michael Williams. However, the pass is under thrown, allowing safety Eric Reid to close on Williams. The big tight end catches the ball, but Reid comes away with it after both players land on the ground at the 2 yard line. While the referees ruled a 1st down for LSU, the call easily could have gone the other way, with replay helpless to overturn the call (see 1:07 of this clip for the best angle). It was a turning point, as neither team would score again in regulation. That’s the slim margin that separates Alabama and LSU, the top two teams in The Power Rank.

While LSU won the first meeting between the two teams in overtime, the conversation about a rematch in the National Championship game gets louder every week. With losses to Stanford and Boise State over the weekend, Alabama moved up to 3rd in the BCS standings behind only LSU and Oklahoma State. With only a few weeks left in the season, The Power Rank gives the following probabilities for top teams in the BCS to remain undefeated.

LSU: 77%
Oklahoma State: 49%

The LSU number includes an SEC championship game against Georgia, while Oklahoma State’s likelihood is much lower due to the 56% chance of winning their Bedlam rivalry game against Oklahoma. Alabama has two games remaining against Georgia Southern, a cupcake who’s actually our 2nd ranked championship subdivision team, and Auburn, which implies

Alabama: 82%

to win their remaining games. If LSU and Alabama must win out while Oklahoma State loses at least once for a rematch, The Power Rank gives this a 34% chance. Taking a look back, we gave the rematch a 15% chance two weeks ago before the LSU Alabama game and a 25% chance last week. As other undefeated teams continue to lose as their schedule get more difficult, the likelihood of LSU and Alabama in the big game keeps increasing. Others might argue that Oregon (3) and Oklahoma (5) also deserve a shot. The Power Rank gives

Oregon: 57%
Oklahoma: 34%

for these teams to win their remaining games.

Finally, what if that late game call in the LSU Alabama game had gone the other way? Despite the beastly strength of LSU’s defensive line, it’s likely that Alabama running back Trent Richardson would have punched it in from the two yard line. If the game ended 13-6 in favor Alabama, The Power Rank puts the Tide in the top spot over LSU.

1. Alabama: 32.99
2. LSU: 30.54
3. Oregon: 25.76
4. Oklahoma State: 24.74
5. Oklahoma: 23.67

For the top teams, the algorithm puts more weight in games against other top teams. As long as the outcome of their first game was close, LSU and Alabama would be the top teams in our rankings.

Related post: LSU and Oklahoma State have a 38% chance to play in the National Championship game.

LSU and Oklahoma State have a 38% chance to play in National Championship game

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One need not worry
Ten unbeatens down to three
Thirty eight percent

Four weeks ago, there were 10 undefeated teams in college football, and everyone speculated how the slew of unbeaten teams might impact the BCS. Andy Staples of SI.com predicted that Wisconsin and Stanford as well as an SEC and Big 12 school would all go undefeated, wreaking havoc on the system. After this weekend, Wisconsin, Stanford and host of others have all lost, leaving only three unbeaten teams. The Power Rank gives these teams the following chance to remain undefeated.

LSU: 77%
Oklahoma State: 49%
Houston: 31%

In the national championship picture, Houston doesn’t matter, as their schedule is softer than my 6 month old son’s tummy. (Happy month day, Miles.) Then the BCS boils down to LSU and Oklahoma State, and The Power Rank gives a 38% chance that both these teams win the remainder of their games and meet in the national championship game. Brash, Conceited and Smug, the BCS would work for the second year in a row in the sense that the national championship game would feature two undefeated teams from elite conferences. For those who hate the system, The Power Rank forecasts a 11% chance that LSU and Oklahoma State both lose, leaving a mess of one loss teams to argue about who should play. The talking heads on ESPN might explode.