THE POWER RANK

Why neither Florida State nor Notre Dame will make the 2014 college football playoff

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The Power Rank's top 10 as of Oct 16th, which doesn't include Florida State or Notre Dame.

The Power Rank’s top 10 as of Oct 16th, which doesn’t include Florida State or Notre Dame.

You expect the winner of the Notre Dame and Florida State to make the first college football playoff. It might be the easiest prediction of the season given their unblemished records and the recent track record of these programs.

Florida State won the national title last season and returns Heisman winning QB Jameis Winston. Only an incredible run of wins by Mississippi State has knocked them from first in the AP poll.

Notre Dame played in the national championship game two years ago. Now Everett Golson, the quarterback that led the Fighting Irish during their championship run, has returned after getting removed from school for year. Notre Dame seems like an elite team again.

The past few season has brought a return to former greatness for both programs. This visual shows a 30 year history of Florida State.

Florida State

The bottom panel shows a rating, or an expected margin of victory against an average team from The Power Rank’s algorithm.

Former Florida State Bobby Bowden took the program to incredible heights before regressing in the new millennium. Current coach Jimbo Fisher had the Seminoles on an upward trajectory before making a huge leap last season.

Notre Dame has also enjoyed some terrific seasons over the last 30 years.

Notre Dame

Former coach Lou Holtz capture the national championship in 1988 and had amazing teams in 1989 and 1993. The program went in decline after his departure in 1996 except for a one year blip in 2005 (Charlie Weis’s first year with Tyrone Willingham’s players). Current coach Brian Kelly had the Fighting Irish on the rise until a slight drop last season.

Despite this return to greatness for these programs, neither Notre Dame nor Florida State will make the college football playoff this season. Let me explain.

Florida State

No, my pessimism towards Florida State isn’t based on the high likelihood Jameis Winston gets kicked off the team. The news cycle has brought us constant stories about his problems over a rape case and whether he took money for signing autographs.

Florida State’s offense has been good this season. The Power Rank takes yards per play and adjusts for strength of schedule through a proprietary algorithm to rank offense and defense. These rankings put the Seminole offense at 6th in the nation. They might even be better, as this calculation includes the Clemson game in which Winston didn’t play.

Florida State’s problems are on defense. In the past two season, this unit has ranked in the top 5 by my adjusted yards per play. However, they have dropped to 35th this season.

There are many possible reasons for this decline. Florida State lost tackle Tim Jernigan and cornerback LaMarcus Joyner to the NFL draft. Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt left for Georgia, who pitched a shutout at Missouri this past weekend.

The numbers single out the pass defense, which ranks 51st by yards per pass attempt adjusted for schedule. Florida State can’t generate a pass rush as they have sacked the quarterback on 4.2% of pass attempts compared to a 6% FBS average.

To confirm these numbers, I watched the first half of Florida State’s game against Syracuse. The Seminoles only pressured the quarterback three times on 18 pass attempts. None of these pressures led to a sack, although one did result in an interception.

With this struggling defense, Florida State becomes vulnerable to a few of their conference foes. (Well, they were also vulnerable 2 seasons ago when they lost at North Carolina State.) My best predictions at The Power Rank come from aggregating a number of predictions based on stats such as margin of victory and yards per play.

These ensemble predictions make Florida State an underdog at Louisville (44% win probability) and Miami (38%). Louisville has the 2nd best defense in the nation, while Miami looks strong on both sides of the ball despite 3 losses already.

Notre Dame

The Everett Golson story has been heart warming. The kid makes a mistake and cheats on a test. Notre Dame finds out and kicks him out of school, causing him to miss the 2013 season. Then Golson comes back and has led the Fighting Irish to a 6-0 record this season.

However, the numbers suggest that Notre Dame’s offense is not any better than last season. With Tommy Rees at quarterback last season, Notre Dame ranked 23rd in yards per pass attempt adjusted for schedule. This season, Notre Dame ranks 22nd.

On both offense and defense, Notre Dame looks the same as last season if not slightly worse. In my numbers, their offense is ranked 35th after ending last season 28th. Their defense is ranked 31st after ending last season 28th. For comparison, one loss Alabama has the 11th and 7th ranked offense and defense respectively this season.

In addition, Notre Dame hasn’t played any quality teams except Stanford. They beat Stanford when converted a 4th and 11 for a go ahead touchdown when Stanford coach David Shaw inexplicably rushed 3 guys (no, this Stanford alum is not bitter. Not at all.). Notre Dame also won a strange 31-0 game against Michigan in which they had fewer total yards than Michigan.

Even if they beat Florida State, Notre Dame will find their remaining schedule difficult. My numbers have them as underdog at USC and Arizona State, two teams that have struggled this season. They also have a slim 51% win probability against Louisville at home.

Prediction

Notre Dame at Florida State should be a fantastic game. The environment will be electric, the offenses will score points.

The best predictions at The Power Rank come from aggregating a number of different predictions. In collaboration with Mike Craig, we use my numbers as well as data from the betting markets and other trusted rankings. This ensemble method predicts a 9 point win for Florida State, which implies a 25% win probability for Notre Dame.

However, these are not two of the best five teams in the nation. Florida State might sneak back into the top 5 if their defense returns their level of play over the last two seasons. The numbers suggest Notre Dame is a solid top 25 team but nothing more.

Expect neither Florida State nor Notre Dame to end up in college football’s first playoff.

3 predictions from a new college football ranking system, week 6, 2013.

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Rankings based on a regression model designed for early in the season.

Rankings based on a regression model designed for early in the season.

After 5 weeks of the college football season, we’re still in the dark about most college football teams. The only certainty is that Lane Kiffin no longer coaches USC.

I always try to improve the preseason and early season college football rankings at The Power Rank. The primary rankings on the site still use last season’s games, with this season’s games counted twice. I think they do a good job, but this method reacts slowly to teams that have struggled, such as Texas (31st).

So I developed new model this week. It’s based on the regression model that I used for my preseason predictions, which consider a team’s rating the last 4 years, turnovers and returning starters. Now, the model includes a rating calculated from only games this year.

The visuals shows the top 10 teams in this regression model. While Baylor is mostly likely overrated at 2nd since they have not played anyone, I do like that Alabama has dropped to 3rd and Washington has cracked the top 10.

Let’s look at the predictions this model makes.

How low should Texas be ranked?

Texas checks in at 51st in this regression model. Their moderate success over the past 4 seasons (moderate by Texas standards) and a host of returning starters keep the Longhorns above the average FBS team (125 teams total).

For last night’s game at Iowa State, the regression model predicted a 2.3 win for Iowa State. The rankings that use last year’s games had Texas by 2.8. The regression model has reacted faster to the Longhorn’s struggles, who have lost badly to Mississippi and BYU.

Texas squeaked out a win last night over Iowa State. They needed a hail mary touchdown at the end of the 1st half as well as a no call on a fumble that would have ended Texas’s game winning drive. Further more, Iowa State gained 6.0 yards per play compared to 4.9 for Texas.

Mack Brown is dating Lady Luck.

How good are the predictions of the new model?

I went back and tested how accurately each ranking system predicted game winners. This test considered all games after week 5 from the 2007 to 2012 seasons.

The regression model predicted 69.2% of game winners, while The Power Rank using last year’s games got 68.9% correct. With an error of about 0.8%, both rankings system have the same predictive power.

However, both methods perform better than The Power Rank with only this year’s games. Those rankings predicted 67.5% of game winners, quite a bit less.

Let’s look at the predictions these two models make.

Notre Dame and Arizona State

Notre Dame has disappointed this season. They have already lost twice, and that 7 point win over Purdue looks worse as the Boilermakers continue to lose badly each week.

The rankings with last year’s games predict a 1.3 point loss against Arizona State at a neutral site in Dallas. However, the regression model predicts a 5.5 point loss, the same as the line.

I still don’t know what to think about Notre Dame. Their defense doesn’t tackle well in the secondary. But Oklahoma scored 14 points off of 2 tipped passes against the Fighting Irish last week. Moreover, QB Tommy Rees had a terrible game.

I’d stay away from this game.

Illinois at Nebraska

Illinois has been a pleasant surprise, a rarity in the Big Ten this season. Behind the 9th best offense, the Fighting Illini are 53rd in the regression model, a miracle for a team that finished 115th last season.

They travel to Lincoln to face a Nebraska team that has struggled on defense. The regression model has reacted more quickly to the opposite fortunes of these two teams, picking a 6 point win for Nebraska (the line favors Nebraska by 9).

The rankings with last year’s games have Nebraska by 13.6 points. With the two teams that do not resemble their preseason expectations, it’s safe to ignore this prediction.

This is my upset special for the week. Nebraska’s offense has not lived up to expectations, and QB Taylor Martinez will not play again this week. Illinois gets the win in Lincoln. Next week’s headlines give Mack Brown a week of reprieve and focus on the job security of Bo Pellini.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State

Kansas State lost a host of starters from last season’s stellar team. In addition, the Wildcats had an unsustainable turnover margin in 2012. Hence, my preseason ranking had them at 37th.

The rankings with last season’s games predict a tight game (0.8 points) in favor of Oklahoma State. Again, it’s safe to ignore that given the changes to this Kansas State team.

The regression model predicts a 9 point win for Oklahoma State. This margin is probably to big. Kansas State fumbled the ball 3 times in gifting a win to Texas last week.

The line favors Oklahoma State by 14. This is too much for a team whose offense hasn’t performed at the elite level it did last season.

What do you think?

I’ve copied the rankings from the regression model below. Would you like to see them as the primary rankings?

Let me know in the comments. Thanks for reading.

1. Oregon (4-0), 28.80
2. Baylor (3-0), 26.81
3. Alabama (4-0), 23.22
4. Stanford (4-0), 17.67
5. Georgia (3-1), 15.98
6. Texas A&M (4-1), 15.55
7. LSU (4-1), 15.49
8. Washington (4-0), 14.31
9. Florida State (4-0), 14.14
10. Florida (3-1), 14.07
11. Ohio State (5-0), 13.87
12. Clemson (4-0), 13.46
13. Louisville (4-0), 12.92
14. UCLA (4-0), 12.58
15. Wisconsin (3-2), 11.93
16. South Carolina (3-1), 11.47
17. Miami (FL) (4-0), 10.73
18. TCU (2-2), 10.14
19. Oklahoma (4-0), 10.14
20. Arizona State (3-1), 9.84
21. Texas Tech (4-0), 9.74
22. Arizona (3-1), 9.59
23. Missouri (4-0), 9.01
24. Utah State (3-2), 8.32
25. Mississippi (3-1), 8.17
26. USC (3-2), 7.75
27. Northwestern (4-0), 7.42
28. Oklahoma State (3-1), 7.41
29. Oregon State (4-1), 7.23
30. Northern Illinois (4-0), 5.76
31. Virginia Tech (4-1), 5.24
32. Tennessee (3-2), 4.79
33. Maryland (4-0), 4.72
34. Auburn (3-1), 4.67
35. UCF (3-1), 4.53
36. Penn State (3-1), 4.43
37. Notre Dame (3-2), 4.37
38. Boise State (3-2), 4.28
39. Nebraska (3-1), 4.11
40. Iowa (4-1), 3.92
41. Michigan State (3-1), 3.67
42. Utah (3-2), 3.45
43. Brigham Young (2-2), 3.41
44. Vanderbilt (3-2), 3.05
45. Georgia Tech (3-1), 3.01
46. Michigan (4-0), 2.60
47. Fresno State (4-0), 2.24
48. West Virginia (3-2), 1.88
49. Arkansas (3-2), 1.76
50. Syracuse (2-2), 1.50
51. Texas (3-2), 1.40
52. Kansas State (2-2), 1.21
53. Illinois (3-1), 1.02
54. East Carolina (3-1), 0.94
55. Mississippi State (2-2), 0.80
56. North Carolina State (3-1), 0.73
57. Iowa State (1-3), 0.72
58. Washington State (3-2), 0.50
59. Rutgers (3-1), -0.15
60. Toledo (2-3), -0.17
61. Ball State (4-1), -0.23
62. Cincinnati (3-1), -0.33
63. San Jose State (1-3), -0.38
64. Pittsburgh (3-1), -0.44
65. Houston (4-0), -0.58
66. California (1-3), -0.62
67. North Carolina (1-3), -0.66
68. Kentucky (1-3), -0.75
69. Minnesota (4-1), -1.11
70. Bowling Green (4-1), -1.49
71. Marshall (2-2), -1.65
72. North Texas (2-2), -1.87
73. Indiana (2-2), -1.90
74. Boston College (2-2), -1.92
75. Western Kentucky (4-2), -2.02
76. Buffalo (2-2), -2.33
77. Ohio (3-1), -2.50
78. Rice (2-2), -2.77
79. Navy (2-1), -3.03
80. San Diego State (1-3), -3.31
81. Connecticut (0-4), -3.37
82. Colorado State (2-3), -4.02
83. Virginia (2-2), -4.74
84. Wyoming (3-2), -5.16
85. SMU (1-3), -5.28
86. Arkansas State (2-3), -5.78
87. Louisiana Lafayette (2-2), -6.11
88. Tulsa (1-3), -6.14
89. Nevada (3-2), -6.31
90. Duke (3-2), -6.34
91. Louisiana Monroe (2-4), -6.46
92. Colorado (2-1), -6.49
93. Army (2-3), -7.09
94. Wake Forest (2-3), -8.01
95. Temple (0-4), -8.05
96. Kent State (2-3), -8.11
97. Louisiana Tech (1-4), -8.17
98. Florida Atlantic (1-4), -8.54
99. Middle Tennessee State (3-2), -8.61
100. Purdue (1-4), -9.07
101. Kansas (2-1), -9.54
102. South Florida (0-4), -9.68
103. Tulane (3-2), -10.27
104. Western Michigan (0-5), -10.40
105. Troy (2-3), -11.14
106. UAB (1-3), -11.34
107. Hawaii (0-4), -11.75
108. Air Force (1-4), -11.80
109. UNLV (3-2), -12.39
110. Southern Miss (0-4), -13.19
111. Memphis (1-2), -13.20
112. Akron (1-4), -13.27
113. UTEP (1-3), -14.38
114. Idaho (1-4), -14.94
115. Miami (OH) (0-4), -15.71
116. Florida International (0-4), -15.86
117. Central Michigan (1-4), -16.30
118. Eastern Michigan (1-3), -17.36
119. New Mexico (1-3), -18.10
120. New Mexico State (0-5), -19.98

3 predictions for week 2 of college football, 2013

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I live in Ann Arbor, and the talk all summer has been Notre Dame, not Ohio State.

The Fighting Irish make their last scheduled visit to the Big House to play Michigan. This city will be electric on Saturday night. The game should not disappoint.

Notre Dame at Michigan

My preseason rankings predict a 2 point Notre Dame win on the road over Michigan.

However, we’ve had a week of games to watch. Since numbers will never tell you everything about football, it would be crazy to ignore those insights.

Michigan easily defeated Central Michigan 59-9 last week. While the score reflected the dominance that Michigan showed in the game, they still had some flaws.

QB Devin Gardner threw two interceptions and came out tentative on his early throws. The safety position became an issue when Thomas Gordon got suspended for the game and his back up blew a few coverages.

However, the biggest question is Michigan’s pass rush. Can they pressure Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees by only rushing 4 defensive linemen? Michigan registered 4 sacks against Central Michigan but only one by a lineman (although the stats are missing another sack by lineman).

Notre Dame beat Temple 28-6 last weekend. The defense looked lethargic, allowing Temple QB Connor Reilly to move the ball in his first start. You expect dominance from the front seven that only lost two starters. However, Notre Dame even called a few blitzes early in the second half to try to slow down Temple.

Notre Dame’s defense should play much better against Michigan. The Fighting Irish have loads of talent on both sides of the ball. Look for WR TJ Jones and RB Amir Carlisle to make big plays.

Even though the line favors Michigan by 4, I expect a close, 50-50 game. A field goal attempt will decide the outcome.

South Carolina at Georgia

“Clowney sluggish but Gamecocks win 27-10.”

Sports writers have to find a story. This one picked on one of the most recognizable names in college football when he had a lackluster game. In reality, South Carolina’s defense held North Carolina to 3.8 yards per play, significantly better than the 5.7 FBS average.

South Carolina has an elite defense, now ranked 3rd by yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule (this ranking considers data from last season). They face a Georgia offense ranked 2nd. The clash of these two elite units will be the most interesting match up of this game.

Georgia’s loss to Clemson by 3 last weekend doesn’t change my opinion of them. While they were a slight favorite on the road, the Bulldogs bobbled a snap on a field goal attempt. Had they converted, Georgia probably forces overtime at Clemson and potentially wins the game.

Both my preseason numbers and the Vegas line predict a 3 or 4 point win for the home team Georgia.

Central Arkansas at Colorado

Last weekend, Southern Illinois, my 13th ranked FCS school from last season, traveled to Illinois. The Salukis had a chance to tie the game in the final minutes, eventually losing by 8. My prediction gave Southern Illinois a 53% chance to win, while the line favored Illinois by 17.

This week, another top FCS team travels to meet one of the worst BCS teams. Central Arkansas, 14th in my FCS rankings last year, goes to Boulder to play Colorado. Central Arkansas won 9 games last season, beating a Sam Houston State team that made the championship game. Colorado won, well, 1 game last season.

Central Arkansas as a 43% chance to pull of the upset (line has Colorado by 13).

Thanks for reading.

The Top 25 College Football Teams of 2013 by Recruiting Rankings

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Nick_Saban_StatueRecruiting rankings do matter.

Each year, Rivals assigns a rating or points value to each school that describes the talent of the players who signed a letter of intent. For Sports Illustrated, we developed a model that takes the Rivals ratings and predicts future team performance. To compare the rankings from this model with the preseason AP poll, we looked at which rankings better predicted the final AP poll.

The Rivals model did as good or better than the preseason AP poll on 46 out of 100 teams over the last 4 years. This is remarkable given the limited information the recruiting model has compared with the writers that vote in the AP poll.

To get the full story on SI.com, click here.

Before we count down the top 25 teams for 2013, we note the following about this regression model.

  • The regression model has learned from the past by relating recruiting ratings to the team ratings from The Power Rank algorithm. For example, recruiting data from 2009 to 2012 were fit to The Power Rank’s results for the 2012 season. Our team ratings from the regular season have picked the winner in 62.8% of bowl games over the last 11 years, a better percentage than the Vegas line (62.2%). Part of the accuracy of the recruiting model depends on our team ratings.
  • We used the final AP poll as the measuring stick for the accuracy of the Rivals model and the preseason AP poll. This poll has problems, as it strongly considers wins but almost ignores margin of victory. However, it was the most relevant measurement of team strength for a general college football audience.
  • The 100 teams we looked at were the top 25 teams in the preseason AP poll over the last 4 years. This puts the recruiting model in a better light, since this set of teams didn’t include teams highly ranked by the recruiting model but outside the AP top 25. For example, the recruiting model had Auburn 7th heading into the 2012 season. The preseason AP poll had Auburn 28th, which more accurately predicted their disasterous season.

With the passing of National Signing Day 2013, we now have the Rivals ratings to predict the 2013 college football season. The predictions are based the past 8 years of team performance.

25. Stanford. The Cardinal only had 12 scholarships to offer incoming freshmen. Since the number of recruits directly affects the Rivals team rating, Stanford only had the 61st ranked class this year, a far cry from their 5th ranked class a season ago.

24. Miami (FL). Miami coach Al Golden can’t walk off campus without tripping over a highly touted high school player. However, impending NCAA sanctions made recruiting difficult this year, as they had the 44th best class, much worse than their 9th ranking a year ago.

23. Virginia Tech. Despite two down years, coach Frank Beamer still recruited the 22nd ranked class. The Hokies need QB Logan Thomas’s passing to improve or groom a better passer.

22. California. The Bears continue to recruit well despite the coaching change from Jeff Tedford to Sonny Dykes. However, this ranking is probably too high. The Cal offense will be learning a new spread system under Dykes, while the defense lost coordinator Clancy Pendergast to USC.

21. Washington. The Huskies have continually improved their recruiting rank over the last 4 year, rising from 28th in 2010 to 18th in 2013. Hopefully, some of the linemen recruiting during this time will give QB Keith Price better protection next season.

20. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers pulled in the 17th best class, by far the 3rd best class in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, Michigan and Ohio State were way ahead, and Nebraska has to travel to Ann Arbor this season.

19. South Carolina. With all the media chatter about the talent in Columbus and the draw dropping hits from Jadeveon Clowney, you might think South Carolina is a top 10 recruiting team. In reality, their 16th ranking in 2013 was their best over the last 4 seasons.

18. Tennessee. The Rivals model had the Vols 13th in the nation last season, which was way too high. With new coach Butch Jones taking over, this year’s 18th ranking is also probably too high.

17. Oregon. Over the last 4 years, the Rivals model has consistently underrated the Ducks. The preseason AP poll was more accurate each year. Will this continue after head coach Chip Kelly handed the program over to Mark Helfrich?

16. UCLA. In talent rich Southern California, the Bruins always recruit well. They finally lived up to that talent last season under first year head coach Jim Mora. Their 11th ranked class this year should continue this trajectory.

15. Texas A&M. New coach Kevin Sumlin is getting tons of credit for recruiting the 10th best class this year. Of course, it helps that Johnny Manziel (a 3 star recruit) led the Aggies to their best season in more than a decade.

14. Mississippi. The Rebels and coach Hugh Freeze had a magical signing day, landing two top 10 recruits on the offensive and defensive line. Their 7th ranking is by far their best since 2002. However, three of their rivals in the SEC west are ranked higher in these rankings.

13. Clemson. With their dramatic, come from behind win against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, the Tigers will surely be an overrated top 10 team in the preseason AP poll. This ranking in the teens seems more appropriate.

12. Oklahoma. In the past 12 years, the Sooners have recruited a top 10 class 7 times. However, none of these top 10 classes have occurred during the last 3 seasons. Coach Bob Stoops needs more talent on the defensive line to start contending for national titles again.

11. Texas. Even Mack Brown can’t recruit after 3 subpar seasons. The Longhorns had the 23rd ranked class, their worst since 2002. Their usually excellent defense really needs help after last season.

10. Georgia. How would the Bulldogs recruiting class would have fared if the coaches had told QB Aaron Murray to spike the ball during the waning moments of the SEC championship game? A win over Alabama would have landed Georgia in the national title game against Notre Dame. Instead, they had the 12th best class, a fine rank but the second worst for coach Mark Richt over the last 12 years.

9. Michigan. After a disasterous 3 seasons under Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke has turned around this program both on the field and recruiting trail. The Wolverines notched the 5th ranked class after finishing 7th last year. These are their two best ranked classes over the last 8 years.

8. USC. While we kept hearing about the defections from the Trojan’s class, no one mentioned that coach Lane Kiffin still had five 5 star recruits coming to campus, more than any other school (yes, even Alabama). Lack of talent will not be a problem for USC.

7. Auburn. Yes, feel free to call BS on this one. The Tigers continue to recruit well. But unless the next Cam Newton and Nick Fairley show up on campus this fall, Auburn will not return to elite status this season under new coach Gus Malzahn.

6. Florida State. Call BS on this one at your own risk. Despite disappointing loses to NC State and Florida this year, expect the talent rich Seminoles to exceed expectations next season.

5. LSU. It’s a bit shocking that top recruit Robert Nkemdiche picked Ole Miss over LSU. There’s more certainly in winning games in Baton Rouge. Still, coach Les Miles landed the 6th best class in the nation.

4. Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish took full advantage of their undefeated regular season and landed the 3rd best class in the nation. While we should expect Notre Dame to be good next year, 4th is probably too high.

3. Ohio State. The Buckeyes will not surprise anyone this year. In coach Urban Meyer’s first season, Ohio State started the year 18th in the preseason AP poll. Now, with an undefeated season and a 2nd ranked recruiting class, anything but a national title will be a disappointment.

2. Florida. Last year, first year coach Will Muschamp landed the 3rd ranked class despite finishing 7-6. Somehow, a 11-2 season this year got the Gators the 4th ranked class (although they did top the rankings before National Signing Day). Talent is never a problem at Florida.

1. Alabama. Duh. What did you expect? After going 7-6 in his first year at Alabama, coach Nick Saban still recruited the top ranked class in 2008. This started a streak of top ranked classes for Alabama in 5 of the last 6 years. The rest of the SEC should resort to a voodoo consultant to bring bad turnover luck to Alabama next season.

Outlook

No one should take these rankings too seriously. With the short season and the youth of the players involved, college football is incredibly difficult to predict during the preseason. And these rankings have their problems. There’s an incredibly high likelihood that Boise State will be better than the 60th best team in the nation next year.

However, these rankings are still useful, and not only because they are six months ahead of the preseason AP poll. As with all predictive analytics, use these rankings has a guide to help navigate expectations for next season.

Moreover, this is only the beginning of our preseason college football predictions. To keep up to date, sign up for our free email newsletter below.

Thanks for reading.

Check Out The Power Rank on Paul Finebaum

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The Power Rank's article on the BCS title game made the cover down South.I had the honor of being on Paul Finebaum’s radio show yesterday. Paul talks college football all year long from Birmingham, Alabama, and the New Yorker recently titled their profile of him “King of the South”. In prepping for the show, I was blown away with the engagement he has with his callers. He lets them say almost anything, making people like Tammy and Legend the stars of the show. He even traveled to Iowa to visit Robert from Waterloo, a frequent caller with cerebral palsy.

On his show yesterday, we talked about my Sports Illustrated article on the BCS title game between Alabama and Notre Dame. The article is on the cover of the magazine in the south, although it couldn’t beat out Michael Phelps nationwide. For me, these were the three highlights of being on the show:

  • Not getting bashed by callers when I said that Alabama was 2nd in my rankings. (Oregon has the top spot.)
  • Talking about Stanford’s Rose Bowl win and how the team rankings predicted the 6 point win.
  • Saying “computer code” in an interview on college football.

And if a team is predicted to win by 1 point, they have a 52.4% chance of winning, not the 53% I mention on the show.

To listen to the show, click here.