THE POWER RANK

Don’t believe the numbers on Villanova vs North Carolina

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unc_logoI’m all about numbers for making predictions at The Power Rank. Head over to the predictions page on any given day of the year outside the MLB All-Star break to get a good idea of how a game should turn out.

With the NCAA Tournament title game tonight, the numbers give Villanova a 1.2 point edge over North Carolina.

And why not? Villanova has been on a tear, capped by a 44 point annihilation of Oklahoma in the Final Four.

However, these numbers are on the wrong side of this game. Let me explain.

My algorithm tends to weight games against good teams more, and Villanova had some good fortune from behind the arc against quality competition. Their 50% from three over the last 4 games (35-70) is significantly better than their 33% entering the tournament.

I also calculate market rankings based on the closing point spreads in the markets, a predictor not as affected by the noise of game results. These numbers rate Villanova about 1.2 points worse than North Carolina.

The markets have held steady at North Carolina by 2.5 points. That might be a bit high, but I do think the talented Tar Heels should have a better than 50% chance to beat Villanova.

Can anyone beat North Carolina? A 2016 Final Four preview

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FinalFour_2016_winprobWhich team will win the Final Four? A talented North Carolina is the clear favorite, as my numbers give them a 47% chance to win.

However, three other hungry teams will attempt to knock off the Tar Heels in Houston. In a year of college basketball parity and complete March insanity, can one of these teams do it?

Let’s break down the four teams.

North Carolina

Before the tournament, I wrote this about the Tar Heels.

However, there’s something not quite right about this team. They don’t feel like the top team in the nation when you watch them play.

Dumbass.

North Carolina has looked every bit the championship contender. There were plenty of pre-tourney signs that said they would arrive at the Final Four as the front runner.

  • North Carolina was first in my college basketball rankings entering the tournament (still are, check out rankings here)
  • North Carolina began the season first in the preseason AP poll, a surprising predictor of post season performance.
  • Roy Williams elevates his team the most in the tournament according a one of my studies.

Of course, North Carolina has had their share of good fortune as well. They didn’t have to play Kentucky, West Virginia or Xavier, the other top teams in the East Region by my numbers.

Prior to the start of the tourney, North Carolina didn’t have the best odds to win partially due to this tough region. The numbers like Kansas out of a weaker Midwest region.

Now, North Carolina is a clear Final Four favorite, and my numbers give them a 47% win probability.

Villanova

Before the tourney, I warned people about picking Nova as champion. The Wildcats took 44% of their shots from three, and these high volume three point shooting teams tend to not win the tournament.

However, Villanova has shifted their offensive strategy over the last three games. Against Iowa, Miami and Kansas, the Wildcats have taken 33% of their shots from three. They no longer live by the three, die by the three.

Over these three games, the Wildcats have shared the ball. No one player has taken more than 11 shots except for Jason Hart (18) against Kansas. With their typical stellar defense, Villanova made the Final Four.

Villanova has also had their good fortune. They shot a blistering 59% (20-34) from three against Iowa and Miami in comfortable double digit wins, much better than their 34% average for the season.

Against Kansas, Villanova didn’t shoot that well. However, Kansas had a miserable shooting game from three (4-18). It got painful watching Wayne Selden miss shot after shot from behind the arc. The pain reminded me of watching Mike repeatedly call a girl in Swingers.

Villanova is 2nd in my team rankings with a rating a hair below top ranked North Carolina. These rankings would predict a toss up between these two teams in the title game.

However, my team rankings probably overestimate Villanova. My algorithm tends to weight games against good teams more, and Nova had some good fortune from behind the arc against their last 3 quality opponents.

I also calculate market rankings based on the closing point spreads in the markets, a predictor not as affected by the noise of game results. These numbers rate Villanova about 1.5 points worse than North Carolina, and I expect that to be the line should these two teams meet in the final.

Oklahoma

The Sooners are on a roll, as they blew threw the West region to secure a Final Four berth. Buddy Hield earned almost mythical status with 37 points against top seeded Oregon in the regional final.

Oklahoma came through on their 38.5% chance to make the Final Four by my numbers, highest of any team in the West Region. However, I still see flaws with this team.

Oklahoma takes a high rate of three point shots (41% of their field goal attempts). In addition, they have hit on 43% of these three pointers, a rate destined to regress against better defenses in the Final Four.

The markets have Oklahoma as a two point underdog against Villanova, and all of my calculations agree with this point spread.

But wait. Didn’t Oklahoma beat Villanova by 23 points this season? Yes, but the Sooners got blessed with good fortune from three point range. They shot a blistering 14 of 26 from three, while Villanova struggled in going 4 of 32.

My calculations do consider this game, but it’s one of 30 some games that contribute to my team rankings. Looking over a more complete body of work, Villanova is the better team.

Oklahoma can certainly beat Villanova, as a just a bit of jump shot luck can easily make up 2 points. However, Villanova defense ranks 5th in the nation by my points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule. Good looks from three will not come easy.

The odds should favor Villanova to beat Oklahoma.

Syracuse

Many pundits thought Syracuse shouldn’t have made the tournament at all.

The Orange lost to a woeful St. John’s team this season and couldn’t even win their first game in the ACC tournament. And perhaps this wasn’t surprising, as Syracuse didn’t get a single vote in the preseason AP poll.

However, the committee did select Syracuse. And in a year of college basketball parity, Syracuse made the Final Four as a 10 seed.

Syracuse wins with defense. Jim Boeheim recruits tall and long players to execute his zone defense, and this defense ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency numbers.

To make the Final Four, Syracuse beat Virginia when they Malachi Richardson hit a series of contest three point shots. Can this continue against North Carolina? Probably not, as my numbers give them only a 15% chance to pull the upset.

The top 10 college basketball teams in 2015 by Sweet 16 appearances

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tom_izzoWhich school has the best college basketball program?

It’s an easy question to answer with only analytics. We could take an average rating from computer rankings over the past 10 years to find the best programs.

However, college basketball is a sport that almost entirely relies on the postseason for its popularity. Any legitimate ranking must consider success in the NCAA tournament.

To balance analytics with post season success, I propose ranking programs by Sweet 16 appearances over the past 10 years. With such a long time period, it’s difficult for a non-elite team by the numbers to have enough tournament success to make this list. The top 10 below includes all the traditional college basketball powers.

In addition, the Sweet 16 seems like an appropriate balance between making the tournament and winning the entire contest. It’s not enough to just make the field every year, but there’s too much randomness in winning the tourney. In the past 10 years, only two programs have won more than one tournament (Florida and Connecticut), and neither made the tournament in 2015.

To break ties among programs with the same number of Sweet 16 appearances over the last 10 years, I looked at appearances in the past 9 seasons. If this didn’t break the tie, I looked at successively shorter time periods until one program came out ahead.

The rankings below show the top 10 college basketball programs by Sweet 16 appearances. Only one program had 7 appearances over 10 years, which shows the parity in college basketball. Even the best programs have years in which they lose before the second weekend of the tournament.

Teams that missed the cut

Gonzaga has made the tournament each of the past 10 years but did not make this list. While they have become a brand name program in college basketball, Gonzaga has struggled in the tournament with only 3 Sweet 16 appearances.

Ohio State and UCLA have 5 Sweet 16 appearances each but lost out to the teams below based on the tie breaker method. Ohio State hasn’t make the second weekend of the tournament the last two years, while UCLA had 3 straight appearances early in the 10 year window.

10. Xavier

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Xavier is the only program in the top 10 not from a power conference. Sean Miller led the Musketeers to the first two Sweet 16 appearances, while Chris Mack has reached the Sweet 16 in half of his 6 seasons.

9. Wisconsin

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2008

Bo Ryan has made the NCAA tournament in each of his 14 years as Wisconsin’s coach. They have made the Sweet 16 in half of the past 10 years, and the 2015 team led by Frank Kaminsky might be the best of all these teams.

8. Arizona

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2009

Sean Miller coached Arizona for the last 4 Sweet 16 appearances. However, Arizona only had 1 appearance between 2006 and 2010 as the program transitioned from long time coach Lute Olsen to Miller.

Arizona has a great team in 2015, and I think they have the best chance of beating Kentucky should they play in the Final Four.

7. Kentucky

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010

With their undefeated season so far in 2014-2015, one might expect Kentucky to be higher on this list. However, the Wildcats struggled in the early years of this 10 year period as they transitioned from Tubby Smith to Billy Gillispie (whoa, remember him?) to John Calipari.

Even within the last 5 years, Kentucky had a down year in 2013 when they lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Even the best programs can’t escape the vagaries of luck in this era of one and done players.

6. Florida

6 Sweet 16’s: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006

Billy Donovan has had tremendous success at Florida, winning back to back championships in 2006 and 2007. However, it doesn’t always run smoothly in Gainesville. Florida didn’t make the tournament in 2008 and 2009 when the stars from the championship teams left. They also didn’t make the tournament this year.

5. Duke

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006

Back in the Christian Laettner years, Duke made four straight Final Four appearances and won two championships. Even Mike Krzyzewski can’t duplicate that success in this era of parity and one and done players.

Duke has fallen victim to two of the biggest Round of 64 upsets recently, as they lost to 15 seed Lehigh in 2012 and 14 seed Mercer in 2014.

4. Kansas

6 Sweet 16’s: 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

Bill Self has an incredible streak of 11 straight Big 12 regular season championships. He also hasn’t made the Sweet 16 the past two seasons. In 2015, Kansas lost Wichita State, a program in their own state they refuse to schedule during the regular season.

3. North Carolina

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

I thought North Carolina would be lower on this list, as Roy Williams has had some subpar teams in recent memory. North Carolina didn’t make the tournament in 2010, and they didn’t make the Sweet 16 in 2013 and 2014. However, they still have 6 appearances over the last 10 years and squeak ahead of Kansas with their Sweet 16 appearance in 2015.

2. Louisville

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2009, 2008

Rick Pitino has the Louisville program in great shape, as they almost always feature a top 10 defense by adjusted points per possession. However, their offense has been the problem in 2015. If they can find enough offense in the soft East Region this year, they could make another Final Four appearance.

1. Michigan State

7 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Tom Izzo’s teams continue to perform well in March. In 2015, Michigan State beat Virginia to make the Sweet 16 for the 7th time over the last 10 years, tops in the country. I doubt Michigan State would have the highest rating averaged over the past 10 seasons, but they continue to have success in the tournament.

Can any team challenge Clemson and Florida State? A 2013 ACC college football preview

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ACC_Odds_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is another guest post from Chad Peltier, who penned an awesome SEC preview previously. While the conference win probabilities have changed after week 1, I decided to keep the preseason odds.

The ACC will attempt to fight off a “Big 2, Little 12” reputation with Clemson and Florida State at the top. Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, and North Carolina all have the skill to make the division races interesting, even if Clemson and Florida State far out-recruit the others.

The Coastal Division is highly unbalanced with both Clemson and FSU at the top. The Atlantic Division has a wider distribution of power between Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UNC, and Pitt.

The division races are far from certain this season, especially with upstarts in Maryland, Syracuse, and UNC.

Atlantic Division

FLORIDA STATE.

It’s unfortunate that the two best teams in the conference, Florida State and Clemson, are both in the Atlantic Division. One very good team will not make the ACC title game. Florida State has a strong case to be that top team and Atlantic Division representative even with starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Jameis Winston. Seminole fans have to be excited after glimpsing Winston’s first game and his 93% completion percentage.

With a deep defense buoyed by successive top recruiting classes (particularly in the secondary), Jimbo Fisher will likely be most concerned with his offense in 2013. Winston, a former five-star recruit, is as close to a sure thing as possible. However, the offensive line and receiving core are two possible areas of weakness. The Seminoles are talented in the secondary, at running back, and at linebacker, but match-ups with Clemson and Florida might be tough for this developing team in 2013.

With these match-ups in mind, Florida State is the second-most likely team to win the conference at 23.6%, as well as to win the Atlantic Division, at 36.8%.

CLEMSON.

Once again, Clemson looks to be the class of the conference in 2013. Senior QB Tajh Boyd leads a formidable pass oriented offense that unfortunately lost its top WR DeAndre Hopkins and top RB Andre Ellington.

Many Clemson fans feel comfortable with a receiving core of Sammy Watkins and Charone Peake, and Boyd showed in the Georgia game that he feels comfortable spreading the ball to the large group of receivers. One revelation was senior RB Roderick McDowell, who ran for 132 yards against Georgia’s defense. Offensive coordinator Chad Morris is hoping to run as many plays as possible – hitting 100 during the bowl game with LSU – so what the Tigers may lack in efficiency they can more than make up for in sheer volume of plays.

The greater concern for Clemson may be their defense, especially the back seven. While effective against the run, the Tigers had a penchant for giving up big plays in both the passing game and after running backs hit the second level. This was evident against Georgia, as even an injured Todd Gurley was able to break long runs throughout the night.

Regardless, Clemson faithful have plenty of reasons to be optimistic following their win over Georgia. As it stands now, Clemson remains the most likely conference champion at 32.1% and a 48.1% chance of winning the Atlantic Division.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE.

NC State had a perfectly mediocre 7-6 campaign in 2012, thank-you-very-much. The Wolfpack are without possible Buccaneer starter Mike Glennon at quarterback, but will rely on an experienced (if not overly talented) defensive front seven to keep them in games in 2013.

While the front seven should at least be solid, the inexperienced secondary will likely give up explosive plays to the better quarterbacks in the conference, including Stephen Morris, Logan Thomas, and Bryn Retter.

As a result of the inexperienced secondary and the questions on offense – especially quarterback – the Wolfpack are just the fourth best in the Atlantic Division (behind Syracuse) with a 4% chance to win the division and just a 1.4% shot at the conference title.

SYRACUSE.

Syracuse enters in to a new era with Coach Scott Shafer and new QB (and Oklahoma transfer) Drew Allen. Allen was only decent in a close loss to Penn State, completing less than 50% of his passes for 189 yards.

The secondary limited the defense’s effectiveness in 2012, but intercepted blue chip Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg twice. Orange faithful can be pleased with the front seven’s performance against a fairly formidable Nittany Lion run game, which was held to just 57 yards and a 1.5 yard per carry average.

Syracuse certainly won’t be irrelevant in the Atlantic Division and is projected to finish third with a 9.7% chance of winning the division (but just a 4.6% shot at the ACC title).

THE REST.

Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest all make up the cellar of the stratified Atlantic Division. Combining for just a .2% shot at the ACC and 1.2% chance to represent the Atlantic Division, things are still fairly grim for these three ACC teams. While all three won their opening day games, they came against the likes of Presbyterian, Villanova, and Florida International.

Maryland might have found a winning combination with Deon Long and Stefon Diggs, a wide receiver tandem that could star at almost any school in the country. QB C.J. Brown had a fantastic start after tearing his ACL last season, completing 20 of 23 passes and not throwing an interception on the day.

Wake will move towards a more running-based team this season, with QB Tanner Price tasked with more rushes and option football than in his previous years with the program.

Boston College was unable to rush the ball with any success in 2012 and is hoping senior QB Chase Rettig will have more help from his running backs this season.

Of the three, look for Maryland to make the most noise this season, with the potential to upset better teams due to its group of skill players.

Coastal Division

VIRGINIA TECH.

Virginia Tech has been on a slide since its excellent 2009 and 2010 campaigns, resulting in an underwhelming 7-6 2012 season. A large part of the problem was that the 2012 offense failed to find an identity under hyped junior quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas has elite size for a quarterback (as a former tight end), but struggled with accuracy (16 interceptions), sacks, and interceptions. New offensive coordinator and QB guru Scott Loeffler comes to Blacksburg after an extremely disappointing year at Auburn, but many question whether the passing game will improve in 2013.

Despite the offensive woes, it’s certainly not all bad news for Hokie fans. The defense might become an elite unit with a senior-laden line and a young, athletic secondary. Though the Hokies lost to Alabama in the opener, the defense managed to hold the Tide to two offensive scores and A.J. McCarron to a 43% completion percentage.

Led by the defense, the Hokies are a distant fourth to win the conference at 6.9% and second in the Coastal Division at 20%.

NORTH CAROLINA.

Larry Fedora has done an admirable job bringing some measure of respect to the basketball-first school, though the Tarheels will be without their do-everything running back Giovani Bernard. Bernard averaged 6.7 yards per carry for over 1200 yards and almost 500 receiving yards, making him a step better than any other back on the Tarheel’s roster.

QB Bryn Renner was remarkably efficient last season, throwing for 3,300 yards on just seven interceptions, and should carry the fast-paced offense with a deep group of receivers. The concern might be in how well Fedora’s 4-2-5 defense holds up against the spread offenses in the ACC.

With early tough matchups with Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, the Tarheels have a 17% chance of winning the Coastal Division and a 6% shot at the ACC crown.

GEORGIA TECH.

Tech has been consistently great on offense and mediocre to poor on defense since Paul Johnson began his tenure. That trend looks like it will continue for another season. Tech returns a load of quality running backs to play in the flexbone offense, as well as a more experienced QB Vad Lee and offensive line. Lee was solid against Elon, going 7/11 for 189 yards in 70-0 rout.

After a terrible defensive season under Al Groh, the Jackets hired Ted Roof to install a 4-3 defense, which Tech’s personnel is far more suited for. Elon really never stood a chance, but the Tech defense should get a better test against Duke and North Carolina in the next two weeks.

Georgia Tech as a 17.1% chance to win the Coastal and a 6.8% chance to take home the ACC title.

PITTSBURGH.

The Coastal Division has a more rough balance of power than the Atlantic Division, and Pitt’s entrance into the ACC only underscores that parity. The offensive cast is completely new, with running backs Ray Graham and Rushel Shell are both no longer with the team, quarterback Tino Sunseri has graduated, and the second and third best receivers have graduated as well. There isn’t too much room for optimism over the offense in Paul Chryst’s second season, despite an excellent first quarter against Florida State.

Pitt currently is the fifth-most likely Coastal Division representative, but at 15.7%, isn’t far behind UNC or Georgia Tech. Pitt has just a 6% chance of winning the ACC overall.

MIAMI.

Despite the looming NCAA investigation, Miami generated a lot of hype behind the stellar late season play from QB Stephen Morris and freshman running back Duke Johnson. Johnson in particular lived up to his recruiting hype as an electric kick returner and pounding running back, despite being no taller than 5-9. The Miami offensive line is one of the most veteran units in the country and shouldn’t have too much trouble opening holes for Duke or protecting Morris.

However, the defense has an inexperienced secondary and might struggle with more dynamic offenses like UNC, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Nonetheless, Miami’s offense should put them at the front of the pack in the Coastal Division, with a 27.5% chance to take the Coastal Division and a 11.9% chance to win the ACC (which is third behind Atlantic Division probables Clemson and Florida State).

THE REST.

Duke and Virginia have just a .5% chance of winning the ACC (and a 2.7% shot at the Coastal title), but should both be better than the Atlantic cellar-dwellers Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest.

Duke returns a surprisingly deep cast of running backs, while also adding freshman four-star recruit Shaw Powell to run behind the veteran offensive line. The ground game won’t be the problem for the Blue Devils in their quest for bowl eligibility – that will likely be the passing game, which lost its quarterback and top wide receiver to graduation. Duke took the first step towards 6 wins in week one, beating NC Central 45-0.

Virginia’s 4-8 2012 campaign was disappointing after a promising series of recruiting classes and a decent 2011 season. This year’s offense will look much different after the graduation and transfer of the top two QBs. The Cavs managed to beat a decent BYU defense without many offensive fireworks, but should begin to work freshman five-star recruit Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell in at running back.

Predictions for 2nd Round of 2011 NCAA Tournament

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Here are the predicted outcomes for this weekend’s games. The only upset is Washington over North Carolina by a slim half point. Can the veteran Husky squad beat the young Tar Heels? Otherwise, Kansas and Pittsburgh look like the most likely 1 seed to go down this round, although they are predicted to win by 4.9 over Illinois and 6.5 over Butler respectively. Last year, Kansas looked sluggish in a first round win over Lehigh and then went down to Northern Iowa in the second round. This year, Boston University was only down 4 at the half to Kansas. As for Pittsburgh versus Butler, it won’t be a pretty game, as both teams are well known for grinding out wins defensively. Butler has not had the greatest season, and guard Shelvin Mack looks like he lost his jumper in the off season, but the Bulldogs still gutted out the win against Old Dominion on Thursday.

Richmond will beat Morehead State by 3.0

San Diego State will beat Temple by 5.5

Connecticut will beat Cincinnati by 1.9

Kentucky will beat West Virginia by 3.0

Florida will beat UCLA by 2.9

Pittsburgh will beat Butler by 6.5

Brigham Young will beat Gonzaga by 4.9

Wisconsin will beat Kansas State by 4.1

Purdue will beat VCU by 7.9

Kansas will beat Illinois by 4.9

Notre Dame will beat Florida State by 5.2

Texas will beat Arizona by 4.9

Duke will beat Michigan by 7.1

Syracuse will beat Marquette by 1.5

Ohio State will beat George Mason by 8.2

Washington will beat North Carolina by 0.5

Predictions were 16 of 29 against the line in the first round for a 55% winning percentage.