THE POWER RANK

NFL Predictions, Week 4, 2011

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It’s still early in the season, and New England’s rating is still probably too high. St. Louis, as -10.96, might be too low as well. The 2008 Detroit Lions, the team that went 0-16, had a final rating of -9.87.

New England (1) will beat Oakland (17) by 12.0 on the road. Oakland has a 0.18 chance of beating New England.

Green Bay (2) will beat Denver (27) by 19.8 at home. Denver has a 0.08 chance of beating Green Bay.

Baltimore (3) will beat New York Jets (8) by 6.8 at home. New York Jets has a 0.30 chance of beating Baltimore.

New Orleans (4) will beat Jacksonville (25) by 7.6 on the road. Jacksonville has a 0.28 chance of beating New Orleans.

Detroit (5) will beat Dallas (11) by 0.1 on the road. Dallas has a 0.50 chance of beating Detroit.

Houston (7) will beat Pittsburgh (6) by 1.3 at home. Pittsburgh has a 0.46 chance of beating Houston.

Chicago (9) will beat Carolina (28) by 11.7 at home. Carolina has a 0.19 chance of beating Chicago.

Tampa Bay (10) will beat Indianapolis (20) by 5.7 at home. Indianapolis has a 0.33 chance of beating Tampa Bay.

San Diego (12) will beat Miami (24) by 7.9 at home. Miami has a 0.27 chance of beating San Diego.

Buffalo (13) will beat Cincinnati (23) by 1.6 on the road. Cincinnati has a 0.45 chance of beating Buffalo.

New York Giants (14) will beat Arizona (29) by 5.8 on the road. Arizona has a 0.33 chance of beating New York Giants.

Philadelphia (15) will beat San Francisco (22) by 5.3 at home. San Francisco has a 0.34 chance of beating Philadelphia.

Atlanta (16) will beat Seattle (31) by 7.3 on the road. Seattle has a 0.29 chance of beating Atlanta.

Tennessee (18) will beat Cleveland (26) by 2.7 on the road. Cleveland has a 0.42 chance of beating Tennessee.

Washington (19) will beat St. Louis (32) by 8.6 on the road. St. Louis has a 0.25 chance of beating Washington.

Minnesota (21) will beat Kansas City (30) by 4.4 on the road. Kansas City has a 0.36 chance of beating Minnesota.

NFL Predictions, Week 3, 2011

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Please keep in mind that these are based on early season rankings. These rankings include games from last year as well as two weeks of games this year, which are weighted twice as heavily. New England’s rating is probably too high, and no one should attempt to evaluate Indianapolis without Peyton Manning at this point.

New England will beat Buffalo by 13.0 on the road

Green Bay will beat Chicago by 8.0 on the road

New Orleans will beat Houston by 0.8 at home

New York Jets will beat Oakland by 6.4 on the road

Detroit will beat Minnesota by 8.8 on the road

Dallas will beat Washington by 8.4 at home

San Diego will beat Kansas City by 25.2 at home

Tennessee will beat Denver by 8.7 at home

Baltimore will beat St. Louis by 14.1 on the road

Tampa Bay will beat Atlanta by 6.7 at home

Cincinnati will beat San Francisco by 0.7 at home

Arizona will beat Seattle by 11.6 on the road

Philadelphia will beat New York Giants by 9.9 at home

Miami will beat Cleveland by 3.0 on the road

Carolina will beat Jacksonville by 4.0 at home

Pittsburgh will beat Indianapolis by 1.6 on the road

NFL Predictions, Divisional Playoffs

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Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore by 2.5 at home

Green Bay will beat Atlanta by 0.0 on the road

Chicago will beat Seattle by 9.9 at home

New England will beat New York Jets by 9.7 at home

The predictions were 4 of 4 against the line for Wild Card Weekend. The lines were taken from USA Today on Friday night.

NFL Predictions, Wild Card Weekend

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New Orleans will beat Seattle by 6.5 on the road

Indianapolis will beat New York Jets by 2.1 at home

Baltimore will beat Kansas City by 4.7 on the road

Green Bay will beat Philadelphia by 1.5 on the road

That’s right: 3 of the 4 road teams will win this weekend. While it’s not surprising that Seattle, with its 7-9 record (29 of 32 in The Power Rank), is predicted to fall to New Orleans, the weakness of Kansas City, 22nd in The Power Rank, may be slightly surprising. In fact, we would have fired Chiefs head coach Todd Haley and replaced him with Tom Cable, who led the Raiders to a 17th final ranking. (Cable recently became the most recent head coach fired by Raiders owner Al Davis.) Philadelphia has the unfortunate fate of facing Green Bay, the 2nd best team behind New England. Philadelphia’s home field edge is not predicted to overcome the superior Packers. Finally, Indianapolis takes care of business at home against the New York Jets.

The Power Rank predictions went 11 for 15 against the line last week, passing on one game. This includes a loss in the game in which Dallas visited Philadelphia, a game in which the Eagles rested almost all their starters.