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NFL Predictions, Week 15, December 18, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

Sorry about getting these predictions up so late. However, we can now rank this weekend’s NFL games (not including the Thursday night Jacksonville at Atlanta game) by the algorithm we applied to the college football bowl games. It considers both the strength of the teams as well as the competitiveness of the game. Check out this article for the details. This is a work in progress, so please suggest any improvements to it.

1. Pittsburgh versus San Francisco. (0.59)
San Francisco (6) will beat Pittsburgh (7) by 2.2 at home. Pittsburgh has a 43% chance of beating San Francisco.

2. New York Jets versus Philadelphia. (0.48)
Philadelphia (18) will beat New York Jets (13) by 0.4 at home. New York Jets has a 49% chance of beating Philadelphia.

3. Detroit versus Oakland. (0.47)
Detroit (12) will beat Oakland (21) by 0.5 on the road. Oakland has a 48% chance of beating Detroit.

4. New England versus Denver. (0.43)
New England (4) will beat Denver (19) by 4.8 on the road. Denver has a 35% chance of beating New England.

5. Baltimore versus San Diego. (0.43)
Baltimore (2) will beat San Diego (16) by 6.2 on the road. San Diego has a 31% chance of beating Baltimore.

6. Dallas versus Tampa Bay. (0.39)
Dallas (15) will beat Tampa Bay (26) by 1.9 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 44% chance of beating Dallas.

7. Miami versus Buffalo. (0.38)
Buffalo (25) will beat Miami (22) by 1.2 at home. Miami has a 46% chance of beating Buffalo.

8. Seattle versus Chicago. (0.36)
Chicago (9) will beat Seattle (17) by 5.3 at home. Seattle has a 34% chance of beating Chicago.

9. Carolina versus Houston. (0.26)
Houston (5) will beat Carolina (23) by 10.2 at home. Carolina has a 22% chance of beating Houston.

10. Washington versus New York Giants. (0.24)
New York Giants (14) will beat Washington (27) by 6.9 at home. Washington has a 30% chance of beating New York Giants.

11. New Orleans versus Minnesota. (0.23)
New Orleans (3) will beat Minnesota (29) by 10.4 on the road. Minnesota has a 21% chance of beating New Orleans.

12. Green Bay versus Kansas City. (0.23)
Green Bay (1) will beat Kansas City (28) by 15.5 on the road. Kansas City has a 12% chance of beating Green Bay.

13. Cincinnati versus St. Louis. (0.21)
Cincinnati (11) will beat St. Louis (31) by 6.2 on the road. St. Louis has a 31% chance of beating Cincinnati.

14. Cleveland versus Arizona. (0.20)
Arizona (20) will beat Cleveland (30) by 6.3 at home. Cleveland has a 31% chance of beating Arizona.

15. Tennessee versus Indianapolis. (0.13)
Tennessee (10) will beat Indianapolis (32) by 8.4 on the road. Indianapolis has a 26% chance of beating Tennessee.

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Related Posts:
—About The Power Rank.
—Ranking college football bowl games: a viewer’s guide.
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, National Football League, NFL 2011, NFL Predictions

NFL Predictions, Week 11, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Green Bay (1) will beat Tampa Bay (25) by 18.6 at home. Tampa Bay has a 9% chance of beating Green Bay.

San Francisco (2) will beat Arizona (20) by 10.6 at home. Arizona has a 21% chance of beating San Francisco.

Baltimore (3) will beat Cincinnati (10) by 5.8 at home. Cincinnati has a 32% chance of beating Baltimore.

New England (5) will beat Kansas City (31) by 14.2 at home. Kansas City has a 14% chance of beating New England.

Chicago (6) will beat San Diego (19) by 9.0 at home. San Diego has a 24% chance of beating Chicago.

Dallas (9) will beat Washington (26) by 4.3 on the road. Washington has a 37% chance of beating Dallas.

Detroit (11) will beat Carolina (21) by 6.2 at home. Carolina has a 31% chance of beating Detroit.

Atlanta (12) will beat Tennessee (15) by 3.0 at home. Tennessee has a 41% chance of beating Atlanta.

New York Giants (13) will beat Philadelphia (14) by 2.5 at home. Philadelphia has a 42% chance of beating New York Giants.

Buffalo (16) will beat Miami (27) by 3.2 on the road. Miami has a 40% chance of beating Buffalo.

Oakland (18) will beat Minnesota (28) by 1.7 on the road. Minnesota has a 45% chance of beating Oakland.

Seattle (22) will beat St. Louis (29) by 1.8 on the road. St. Louis has a 44% chance of beating Seattle.

Jacksonville (23) will beat Cleveland (30) by 2.3 on the road. Cleveland has a 43% chance of beating Jacksonville.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, National Football League, NFL Predictions, Sports Wagering

NFL Predictions, Week 8, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

New England (2) will beat Pittsburgh (11) by 5.1 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 0.34 chance of beating New England.

Baltimore (3) will beat Arizona (29) by 16.5 at home. Arizona has a 0.11 chance of beating Baltimore.

Detroit (4) will beat Denver (26) by 7.6 on the road. Denver has a 0.28 chance of beating Detroit.

San Francisco (5) will beat Cleveland (30) by 14.7 at home. Cleveland has a 0.14 chance of beating San Francisco.

New Orleans (6) will beat St. Louis (32) by 13.7 on the road. St. Louis has a 0.15 chance of beating New Orleans.

Dallas (8) will beat Philadelphia (18) by 2.7 on the road. Philadelphia has a 0.42 chance of beating Dallas.

Houston (10) will beat Jacksonville (25) by 8.7 at home. Jacksonville has a 0.25 chance of beating Houston.

Cincinnati (12) will beat Seattle (27) by 4.9 on the road. Seattle has a 0.35 chance of beating Cincinnati.

San Diego (13) will beat Kansas City (23) by 1.6 on the road. Kansas City has a 0.45 chance of beating San Diego.

Buffalo (16) will beat Washington (21) by 4.6 at home. Washington has a 0.36 chance of beating Buffalo.

Tennessee (19) will beat Indianapolis (28) by 6.8 at home. Indianapolis has a 0.30 chance of beating Tennessee.

Carolina (22) will beat Minnesota (20) by 1.9 at home. Minnesota has a 0.44 chance of beating Carolina.

New York Giants (24) will beat Miami (31) by 7.1 at home. Miami has a 0.29 chance of beating New York Giants.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, National Football League, NFL 2011, NFL Predictions, Sports Wagering

NFL Predictions, Week 7, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Green Bay (2) will beat Minnesota (22) by 11.5 on the road. Minnesota has a 0.19 chance of beating Green Bay.

Baltimore (3) will beat Jacksonville (28) by 13.1 on the road. Jacksonville has a 0.16 chance of beating Baltimore.

Detroit (4) will beat Atlanta (20) by 10.2 at home. Atlanta has a 0.22 chance of beating Detroit.

New York Jets (6) will beat San Diego (10) by 3.7 at home. San Diego has a 0.38 chance of beating New York Jets.

Dallas (7) will beat St. Louis (32) by 15.6 at home. St. Louis has a 0.12 chance of beating Dallas.

Pittsburgh (8) will beat Arizona (25) by 6.4 on the road. Arizona has a 0.31 chance of beating Pittsburgh.

New Orleans (9) will beat Indianapolis (23) by 9.2 at home. Indianapolis has a 0.24 chance of beating New Orleans.

Tennessee (11) will beat Houston (17) by 3.5 at home. Houston has a 0.39 chance of beating Tennessee.

Oakland (12) will beat Kansas City (31) by 10.7 at home. Kansas City has a 0.21 chance of beating Oakland.

Tampa Bay (16) will beat Chicago (14) by 1.7 at home. Chicago has a 0.45 chance of beating Tampa Bay.

Washington (19) will beat Carolina (26) by 3.3 on the road. Carolina has a 0.40 chance of beating Washington.

Miami (30) will beat Denver (24) by 0.2 at home. Denver has a 0.49 chance of beating Miami.

Cleveland (29) will beat Seattle (27) by 1.6 at home. Seattle has a 0.45 chance of beating Cleveland.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, National Football League, NFL 2011, NFL Predictions, Sports Wagering

NFL Predictions, Week 5, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

New England (1) will beat New York Jets (12) by 16.5 at home. New York Jets has a 0.11 chance of beating New England.

Green Bay (2) will beat Atlanta (17) by 9.2 on the road. Atlanta has a 0.24 chance of beating Green Bay.

Detroit (4) will beat Chicago (8) by 5.8 at home. Chicago has a 0.33 chance of beating Detroit.

New Orleans (5) will beat Carolina (26) by 8.6 on the road. Carolina has a 0.25 chance of beating New Orleans.

Houston (6) will beat Oakland (11) by 4.0 at home. Oakland has a 0.38 chance of beating Houston.

San Diego (7) will beat Denver (27) by 6.1 on the road. Denver has a 0.32 chance of beating San Diego.

Tampa Bay (9) will beat San Francisco (18) by 0.2 on the road. San Francisco has a 0.49 chance of beating Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh (10) will beat Tennessee (13) by 3.0 at home. Tennessee has a 0.41 chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Buffalo (14) will beat Philadelphia (19) by 3.8 at home. Philadelphia has a 0.38 chance of beating Buffalo.

New York Giants (15) will beat Seattle (31) by 10.8 at home. Seattle has a 0.20 chance of beating New York Giants.

Cincinnati (20) will beat Jacksonville (25) by 1.5 on the road. Jacksonville has a 0.45 chance of beating Cincinnati.

Minnesota (22) will beat Arizona (28) by 6.3 at home. Arizona has a 0.31 chance of beating Minnesota.

Indianapolis (24) will beat Kansas City (30) by 4.7 at home. Kansas City has a 0.36 chance of beating Indianapolis.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, National Football League, NFL 2011, NFL Predictions

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