In the coolest page at The Power Rank, an interactive visual provides access to my round by round probabilities for teams to advance in the NCAA tournament.
However, there have been a ton of questions about the predictions in 2021. Did you switch Arkansas and Colgate? Why does Colgate have the 3rd highest win probability behind Gonzaga and Baylor?
The Colgate prediction is way off due to small sample size. In my college basketball team rankings that drive these predictions, I only use data from the current season.
Colgate played a 12 game Patriot League schedule against 3 opponents. They lost to Army by 2, and then they have won their other 14 games by at least 7 points. With a limited sample size, Colgate is 3rd in my team rankings that only use data from this season.
The NET rankings used by the tournament selection committee also only uses data from the current season, and Colgate ranks an unrealistic 9th.
Data and analytics must be used with care. My public numbers are off on Colgate. My member numbers get it right.
Members of The Power Rank also have access to my best predictions and full bracket advice. To learn more, click here.