NBA series win probability for the 2017 conference finals

These numbers are based on team rankings that consider game results and markets.

San Antonio vs Golden State

Golden State has a 70.4 percent chance of winning the series.

While I’m posting this with the Warriors up 2-0, this win probability comes from numbers before the start of the series.

Cleveland vs Boston

Boston has a 45.1 percent chance of winning the series.

Boston has home court but is not favored to win the series. My rankings put them 1.3 points worse than Cleveland on a neutral court. Note that this still implies Boston as a favorite on their home court.

Fantastic read on Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors

ESPN had a great feature that dug into the 2016-17 season of the Golden State Warriors. Highlights include:

  • How Draymond Green was the lead in recruiting Kevin Durant as a free agent, not Steph Curry.
  • How the shoe companies affect the dynamic of the Warriors.
  • How owner Joe Lacob is an unappreciative prick about Curry’s astonishing development.

To check out Ethan Sherwood Strauss’s profile, click here. I can even forgive how he misrepresent Alexander Hamilton, the first Treasury Secretary of the United States and broadway inspiration.

Unfortunately, Strauss was among those employees laid off by ESPN recently. Hopefully, this doesn’t imply fewer profiles like this.

NBA playoffs series probabilities for 2017, first two rounds

These predictions combine my team rankings based on margin of victory in games with data from the markets.

These are series win probabilities for the second round of the 2017 NBA playoffs. The Boston prediction contains data from Game 1 against Washington on Sunday, April 30th, although it doesn’t consider that Boston won that game.

Utah vs Golden State.
Golden State has a 85.0 percent chance of winning the series.

Houston vs San Antonio.
San Antonio has a 66.9 percent chance of winning the series.

Washington vs Boston.
Boston has a 62.3 percent chance of winning the series.

Toronto vs Cleveland.
Cleveland has a 60.6 percent chance of winning the series.

These series probabilities for the first round of the 2017 playoffs were posted prior to the start of the playoffs.

Portland vs Golden State.
Golden State has a 95.7 percent chance of winning the series.

Utah vs Los Angeles Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers has a 55.3 percent chance of winning the series.

Oklahoma City vs Houston.
Houston has a 77.6 percent chance of winning the series.

Memphis vs San Antonio.
San Antonio has a 83.6 percent chance of winning the series.

Indiana vs Cleveland.
Cleveland has a 70.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Milwaukee vs Toronto.
Toronto has a 65.8 percent chance of winning the series.

Atlanta vs Washington.
Washington has a 66.0 percent chance of winning the series.

Chicago vs Boston.
Boston has a 79.9 percent chance of winning the series.

2016 NBA Finals series win probability

nba_champ_trophyFor the NBA playoffs, I developed rankings that use both data from games and the markets. These numbers give the following win probability for the finals.

Golden State has a 75.3 percent chance of winning the series.

This number has changed since the start of the playoffs.

Back on April 16th, the Warriors had just won a record 73 games during the regular season. My numbers said the Warriors were 4.5 points better than the Cavs on a neutral court, which implies a 83.4% series win probability.

Since then, Steph Curry got hurt, and perhaps hasn’t played up to his MVP form since his return. The Warriors struggled in a seven game series against Oklahoma City, getting outscored by 7 points during the series.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has played exceptional during the playoffs, as they have lost only two games (both in Toronto). Shooting 43.4% from three compared with 36.3% during the regular season has helped.

Now, the numbers imply Golden State is three points better on a neutral court than Cleveland, which gives the 75.3% win probability.

As of Tuesday morning (May 31st), the markets imply a 65.5% win probability for Golden State.

2016 NBA playoff series win probabilities for the first round

These numbers come from rankings that use data from games and the markets. To see my numbers for the entire playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

Western Conference

Houston (8) vs Golden State (1).
Golden State has a 96.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Portland (5) vs Los Angeles Clippers (4).
Los Angeles Clippers have a 64.8 percent chance of winning the series.

Dallas (6) vs Oklahoma City (3).
Oklahoma City has a 90.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Memphis (7) vs San Antonio (2).
San Antonio has a 98.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Eastern Conference

Detroit (8) vs Cleveland (1).
Cleveland has a 84.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Boston (5) vs Atlanta (4).
Atlanta has a 60.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Charlotte (6) vs Miami (3).
Miami has a 50.8 percent chance of winning the series.

Indiana (7) vs Toronto (2).
Toronto has a 63.5 percent chance of winning the series.

To see update numbers on these series probabilities, check out the predictions page.