THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

3 point defense in the NBA: skill or luck?

By Dr. Ed Feng 3 Comments

Have you ever wondered about how much control a defense has over an opponent’s 3 point shooting?

On the one hand, there is obvious skill in closing out a shooter. This comes from proper positioning on the floor and alertness in identifying shooters.

On the other hand, jump shots from distance introduce randomness into the game of basketball. Every fan knows that feeling when their shooter gets hot and carries the team on a run. Then at other times, the shooter can’t throw the ball in the ocean. Live by the 3, die by the 3.

Analytics on 10 years of NBA data

I’ve been wondering about this for years, so I dug into NBA team data over the last 10 years. Two facts emerged.

First, there is randomness in team’s 3 point defense. Let’s measure 3 point defense by the percentage that opponents shoot from behind the arc. Then 3 point defense one season explains 2.7% of the variance in 3 point defense the next season, a correlation coefficient of 0.17. This percentage regresses strongly to the mean.

However, that’s not the entire story. Teams that play better defense within the arc tend to have better 3 point defense. Measured by field goal percentage, a team’s 2 point defense explains 20% of the variance in 3 point defense, a correlation coefficient of 0.45. Ken Pomeroy has found similar results for college basketball.

While there isn’t a strong correlation between 2 and 3 point defense, you can’t ignore that strong defensive teams, like Indiana last season, tend to allow lower 3 point field goal percentages. Indiana led the NBA in both 2 and 3 point field goal defense last season.

Preseason predictions for 2013

Analytics suggests that teams with poor 2 point defense but strong 3 point defense last year will not get so lucky again.

What if we used this idea before the 2012-2013 (last season as of this writing) to predict a team’s 3 point defense? In 2011-2012, New Orleans and Houston finished 2nd and 4th respectively in 3 point defense. However, both teams finished in the bottom 10 for 2 point defense. The next season, New Orleans and Houston ranked 27th and 22nd in 3 point field goal defense respectively.

What does that mean for the 2013-2014 season (which starts tonight)? Here are teams ranked by 3 point defense last season. Their rank in 2 point defense and field goal percentage are in parentheses.

1. Indiana 32.7% (1. 44.4%).
2. Memphis 33.8% (3. 46.5%).
3. Portland 34.0% (29. 51.2%).
4. Boston 34.2% (8. 47.2%).
5. Chicago 34.6% (5. 46.7%).
6. Oklahoma City 34.6% (2. 45.2%).
7. Golden State 34.7% (11. 47.3%).
8. Milwaukee 34.8% (14. 48.3%).
9. Philadelphia 34.9% (19. 48.7%).
10. Washington 34.9% (7. 47.0%).
11. Miami 35.0% (10. 47.3%).
12. San Antonio 35.3% (4. 46.6%).
13. Sacramento 35.5% (30. 51.2%).
14. Los Angeles Lakers 35.7% (15. 48.3%).
15. New York 35.7% (23. 49.8%).
16. Orlando 35.9% (25. 49.8%).
17. Dallas 35.9% (13. 47.5%).
18. Detroit 36.0% (22. 49.2%).
19. Toronto 36.1% (18. 48.7%).
20. Denver 36.3% (12. 47.4%).
21. Brooklyn 36.6% (20. 49.0%).
22. Houston 36.8% (16. 48.4%).
23. Minnesota 36.9% (24. 49.8%).
24. Utah 37.0% (17. 48.5%).
25. Cleveland 37.2% (28. 51.1%).
26. Los Angeles Clippers 37.3% (6. 46.8%).
27. New Orleans 37.4% (27. 50.5%).
28. Atlanta 37.9% (9. 47.3%).
29. Charlotte 38.8% (26. 50.2%).
30. Phoenix 38.8% (21. 49.2%).

Over at bettingexpert, I wrote about the implications of 3 point defense for Atlanta, the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland.

Video of Los Angeles Clippers and their “poor” defense

The Los Angeles Clippers are team that should have better luck in 3 point defense. However, this NBA.com video disagrees. It talks about how poor they defended the 3 point line, putting the blame on Carron Butler and Willie Green. Moreover, they show 6 examples of opponents making 3 point baskets.

Personally, I thought the Clippers closed out 2 of those shooters quite well. They gave up a third wide open 3 pointer off an offensive rebound. While the 3 other shots were poor defense, you can find three open 3 pointers against any team. Since the Clippers usually play good defense (6th in 2 point defense), expect the 3 point defense of the Clippers to rebound this season.

Thanks for reading.

Filed Under: Basketball analytics, Los Angeles Clippers, NBA 2013-2014

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member