THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 15

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To continue last week’s discussion of The Power Rank’s predicted playoff picture, I’d like to start with the games that were predicted incorrectly.

Misses by the Power Rank include Philadelphia over New York, Kansas City over St. Louis, and Detroit over Tampa Bay.  These are unfortunate errors, but the fault may not lie with The Power Rank, but rather with its interpreter…  me.

Last week I mentioned that The Power Rank accounts for games played in neutral sites, which isn’t the case for NFL football games other than the Super Bowl.  I gave each of the home teams an added three points to their rating, and in each of those games, there was an upset.  Had I stuck purely to The Power Rank’s ratings the predictions would have been 100% accurate.  Apparently my arbitrary adjustment was a little too much.

As it is, two of those three games were very close finishes.  Detroit beat Tampa Bay with a field goal in overtime, and New York lost to Philadelphia when their rookie punter made the mistake of letting DeSean Jackson get a chance to return a punt on the last play of the game…  which he returned for the winning touchdown.  The Kansas City win over St. Louis was far more convincing.

In all of the games where the three point adjustment didn’t affect the outcome the Power Rank was spot on.  Let’s see if it can keep up its streak in week 16!

The only game in the remainder of the season that was affected by the three point adjustment is this week’s match between the Bears and Jets in Chicago.  In light of last week’s revelation, I will take away the three points earlier spotted to the Bears and predict that the Jets will be victorious in spite of Rex Ryan’s alleged foot fetish fiasco.  The Jets will also be helped by the most unpalatable of late season NFL traditions, clinched teams sitting stars to get them rest before the playoffs.  The Bears have clinched the NFC North division and may rest some of their key personnel for a good portion of the game.

Speaking of clinched teams, Atlanta has also secured a spot in the playoffs, although they still have to fight for homefield advantage, and with division rival and playoff bound New Orleans visiting Atlanta this week they will have their work cut out for them.

The NFC playoff prediction has been significantly altered by last week’s errors.  With their loss to the Eagles, the Giants are predicted to lose their playoff spot to the highest Power Ranked NFC team, the Green Bay Packers.  The Rams loss to the Chiefs opened up the NFC West, with San Francisco staying alive and Pete Carrol’s Seahawks pulling into the lead.

In the AFC, the Patriots clinched a playoff berth with the help of an improbable 71 yard kick return by their guard Dan Connolly.  The Steelers have also clinched a spot, although neither team has clinched their division or locked up home field advantage.

The only change to the AFC prediction from last week is that Kansas City’s record improves although they would lose out to the Chargers based on the third NFL divisional tiebreaker, record in common games.

Games to watch this week:

Giants(#15) at Packers (#2) – The two playoff contenders meet in Lambeau in a must-win game for both franchises.  Prediction:  Packers win.

Seattle (#29) at Tampa Bay (#21) – Seattle can lose in Tampa Bay and still get into the playoffs with a win over St. Louis in week 17, but Tampa must win to keep hope alive.  Expect both teams to come hungry with a win by the Bucs.

San Francisco (#28) at St. Louis (#27) – Two division rivals in a win-or-go-home scenario, directly next to each other with less than one point of rankings separating them?  It may be the Toilet Bowl, but it should be an exciting game.

1. New England, 12-2, 9.35
2. Green Bay, 8-6, 6.19
3. Pittsburgh, 10-4, 5.15
4. Baltimore, 10-4, 5.15
5. Atlanta, 12-2, 4.78
6. Philadelphia, 10-4, 4.67
7. San Diego, 8-6, 4.60
8. Indianapolis, 8-6, 3.16
9. New York Jets, 10-4, 2.84
10. New Orleans, 10-4, 2.44
11. Chicago, 10-4, 2.43
12. Tennessee, 6-8, 1.79
13. Cleveland, 5-9, 1.28
14. Miami, 7-7, 0.88
15. New York Giants, 9-5, 0.83
16. Kansas City, 9-5, -0.43
17. Oakland, 7-7, -0.50
18. Detroit, 4-10, -0.59
19. Houston, 5-9, -0.98
20. Dallas, 5-9, -1.19
21. Jacksonville, 8-6, -1.83
22. Buffalo, 4-10, -1.83
23. Tampa Bay, 8-6, -2.04
24. Washington, 5-9, -2.81
25. Cincinnati, 3-11, -2.89
26. Minnesota, 5-9, -3.29
27. St. Louis, 6-8, -3.54
28. San Francisco, 5-9, -4.48
29. Seattle, 6-8, -4.96
30. Denver, 3-11, -5.09
31. Arizona, 4-10, -7.80
32. Carolina, 2-12, -11.30

NFL Rankings, Week 14

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In the immortal words of Leonard Nimoy:  I am about to boldly go where The Power Rank’s predictive capability has never gone before.

OK.  So that might be a slight misquote, but I’m sure if the NFL were popular on Vulcan he very well might have said it.  After all, how could Spock resist the logic of The Power Rank algorithm?

A few weeks ago, I discussed playoff predictions and how The Power Rank’s best teams didn’t quite match up with the current playoff scenario at the time, in a very incomplete season.  This week I’ve used The Power Rank’s week 14 ratings to project the victors of all games in the final three weeks of the season and calculated who will make the playoffs based on those projections.

One important modification had to be made, however, as The Power Rank’s ratings only account for a game in a neutral location.  A common practice for football bettors is to give an automatic three points to the home team to compensate for the home field advantage.  I used that convenient number to do the same with The Power Rank’s ratings when projecting the outcome of the remaining games in the season.

This three point home field bonus was surprisingly not a factor in most of the games.  Instances where it did change the outcome of a game were generally very good match ups that will certainly be big games in the upcoming weeks.

Home Field Upset Number One – Bears (#12) over Jets (#10) in week 16.  A battle between two of the NFL’s nastiest defenses fighting for a playoff spot in late December…  it could be the tag line for a movie.

Home Field Upset Number Two – Rams (#25) over Chiefs (#16) in week 15.  The Rams make a huge jump through that tightly packed middle to beat cross-state rivals.  If this prediction is correct it locks up the Ram’s playoff spot and shuts Kansas City out.

Home Field Upset Number Three – Giants (#14) over Eagles (#6) in week 15.  This one is huge.  With the three point bonus, New York edges out Philly by a mere .08 points.  If this tiniest of margins helps sway the game in favor of the Giants it will not only edge Green Bay (#3) out of the playoffs but also make a tie for division winner between the Eagles and Giants in overall record, head-to-head record, and division record.  Even though both teams make the playoffs either way, a Giants win could bring the seeding into question.

Home Field Upset Number Four – Buccaneers (#21) over Lions (#19) in week 15.  This…  is not an exciting game.  The Lions proved last week against the Packers that they could be potent playoff spoilers, but The Power Rank suggests that the Lions won’t thaw in time to win when visiting sunny Tampa Bay.  This win helps Tampa eventually climb to 10-6, but they still fall short of the playoffs unless…

Non-Upset Big Game Number One – Buccaneers (#21) at New Orleans (#8) in week 17.  The Power Rank predicts a solid victory for the Saints, but consider this a March Madness style play-in game.  The Power Rank predicts both NFC South teams will enter this game at 10-5, meaning the winner will move on and the losers will go home.  If both teams do show up tied expect a battle.

Check out the predictions for Week 15 here.

On to the winners…

The AFC doesn’t have many surprises as the top ranked teams finish strong and secure their playoff spots.

The NFC is a bit more jumbled.  #3 ranked Green Bay feels the sting of five losses by a total of 16 points and doesn’t make it.  Making Packer and Buccaneer fans especially angry is St. Louis limping in with the NFC West title and an 8-8 record.

So, 10  of the Power Rank’s top 12 are expected to make the cut.  The exceptions are Green Bay (#3) and Cleveland (#11), with the Giants (#14) and St. Louis (#25) taking their place instead.

1. New England, 11-2, 9.29
2. Pittsburgh, 10-3, 5.98
3. Green Bay, 8-5, 5.69
4. Baltimore, 9-4, 5.22
5. Atlanta, 11-2, 4.78
6. Philadelphia, 9-4, 4.12
7. San Diego, 7-6, 4.09
8. New Orleans, 10-3, 3.03
9. Indianapolis, 7-6, 2.87
10. New York Jets, 9-4, 1.83
11. Cleveland, 5-8, 1.53
12. Chicago, 9-4, 1.50
13. Tennessee, 5-8, 1.42
14. New York Giants, 9-4, 1.20
15. Miami, 7-6, 1.07
16. Kansas City, 8-5, -0.96
17. Houston, 5-8, -1.12
18. Oakland, 6-7, -1.15
19. Detroit, 3-10, -1.19
20. Dallas, 4-9, -1.22
21. Tampa Bay, 8-5, -1.52
22. Jacksonville, 8-5, -1.71
23. Buffalo, 3-10, -2.43
24. Minnesota, 5-8, -2.52
25. St. Louis, 6-7, -2.63
26. Cincinnati, 2-11, -3.03
27. Washington, 5-8, -3.23
28. San Francisco, 5-8, -3.59
29. Seattle, 6-7, -4.38
30. Denver, 3-10, -4.52
31. Arizona, 4-9, -7.01
32. Carolina, 1-12, -11.39

NFL Rankings, Week 10

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…cue the Youtube videos of beer commercials featuring Jim Mora screaming about the playoffs, because we are going there today.

Ten weeks into the season the Power Rank seems to be stablizing quite well with few major jumps, as illustrated by last week’s article.  To build on that stable foundation I’d like to discuss something of importance that is looming on the horizon for many teams that aren’t from Carolina – the playoffs.

The playoff picture is especially interesting because of the field of teams that are competing for spots.  Both the AFC West and NFC West are so bad that teams low in both The Power Rank and NFL standings have a shot at glory in early 2011.

I decided to take a look into the crystal ball that is the Power Rank algorithm to get a peek at what the playoffs might look like this year.  I started by separating the conferences and placing them in The Power Rank order.  Then I highlighted who would be in the playoffs (if they started this week) based on Power Rank standings and on NFL standings. 

A few teams would be in regardless of whose standings are used, and their names should be no surprise to any follower of The Power Rank or of the NFL.  The Jets, Ravens, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers all seem to own five of the AFC playoff spots.  The Power Rank and the NFL standings agree on each of these selections, although The Power Rank does indicate that Tennessee still has a chance to make a solid bid for a wildcard spot.

In the NFC things are not so clear cut.  In both scenarios Philadelphia and Atlanta win their divisions, but these are the only two spots that appear in both playoff pictures.  Green Bay is also in both, although in the current NFL standings they would be a wildcard team and not a division winner.  It is not total agreement, but it is a solid indication that Green Bay is on the fast track to the playoffs.

The other three NFC playoff spots are taken by completely different teams in each list.  The Power Rank has New Orleans, Detroit, and St. Louis joining the top three teams of the NFC in the playoffs.  The NFL standings instead put Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Seattle in the hunt.  The difference between St. Louis and Seattle in the fight to win the NFC West is neglible, and both teams could easily find their way into the backdoor of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay has been finding ways to win games, but according to The Power Rank it’s all smoke and mirrors.  They are the lowest ranked team to be in the playoff hunt, and they’re doing it as a wildcard.  Do not be surprised to see this squad fall off the map in the next couple of weeks.

Chicago is making a solid bid for the NFC North title, and their early season win over the Packers has made the going rough for Green Bay fans who would like to see their team separate itself from the pack (no pun intended).  Chicago is ranked rather low but their classic defense and special teams oriented play is still making the big plays that produce results. 

The most interesting thing to come out of the NFC North is the Detroit Lions, of former 0-16 fame, showing up in The Power Rank playoff picture.  The polar opposite of the Bears (again, no pun intended) the Lions seem to have an explosive offense and terrible luck that prevents them from translating their big plays into wins.  Remember that controversial Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one?  Don’t count the Lions out just yet. If they go on a nice streak they could break into the playoffs with critical momentum, much like the 2007 Giants.

The last team to discuss in the NFC is the Saints.  Yes, they have undoubtedly experienced a massive Super Bowl hangover.  Still, they are not as bad as they appear – they just aren’t living up to the hype that the media has piled onto this team.  Remember, they were a surprise in 2009 that was taken for granted as a 2010 contender and that’s a recipe for falling short of expectations.  The Saints are still a solid team that knows how to win, and they will most likely live up to their rank and make a strong playoff push in the final few weeks of the season.

By this point some AFC West fans are wondering why I didn’t mention the discrepency between The Power Rank picking the Chargers and the NFL taking the Raiders as AFC West division champs.  This division is tough.  The Chargers have played below their potential and have lost by poor special teams play.  The Raiders are playing well above their potential but the young squad seems to coming together and building steam which makes them a solid dark horse candidate.  The Chiefs haven’t kept up the winning ways of their early season success but are still a presence in this division.  In other words, this one is too close to call.

There are still seven weeks left in the season though.  Seven wins would put just about any team firmly in the playoffs, and seven losses would deny almost every team from entry so it may be too early to be making calls, but with such agreement between standings and ranking I find it hard to not start looking forward.

1. New York Jets, 7-2, 6.71
2. Green Bay, 6-3, 5.78
3. Baltimore, 6-3, 5.72
4. New England, 7-2, 5.39
5. Indianapolis, 6-3, 4.42
6. Pittsburgh, 6-3, 4.39
7. Philadelphia, 6-3, 4.04
8. Tennessee, 5-4, 3.61
9. Atlanta, 7-2, 3.37
10. Miami, 5-4, 2.06
11. San Diego, 4-5, 1.49
12. Cleveland, 3-6, 1.15
13. New Orleans, 6-3, 0.90
14. Kansas City, 5-4, 0.60
15. Detroit, 2-7, 0.53
16. Chicago, 6-3, 0.48
17. New York Giants, 6-3, -0.15
18. Oakland, 5-4, -0.42
19. Minnesota, 3-6, -0.77
20. Denver, 3-6, -1.00
21. Cincinnati, 2-7, -1.31
22. St. Louis, 4-5, -1.99
23. Houston, 4-5, -2.11
24. Seattle, 5-4, -2.87
25. Washington, 4-5, -2.96
26. San Francisco, 3-6, -3.00
27. Tampa Bay, 6-3, -3.52
28. Jacksonville, 5-4, -3.54
29. Dallas, 2-7, -3.94 
30. Buffalo, 1-8, -4.05
31. Arizona, 3-6, -6.08
32. Carolina, 1-8, -12.92

Fine Line Mailbag

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From Temple: “Hi Tom, nice post on using home field advantage in enhancing a pass rush. How strong is this effect league-wide? Could my Rams pay efficiently for a higher-range end who plays outside and at least make folks at the Edward Jones dome happy?”

Thanks for the question Temple! The big question mark here is whether or not shelling out a 4-6 million a year for a speed rushers who makes headlines and casual fans happy is worth it, because that’s what it takes to keep talent like Allen and Freeney around.

That said, as a former St. Louis resident I have experienced the Edward Jones dome (both as a spectator and as a player) and the arena certainly qualifies as a place that gets loud enough to give defensive linemen the extra step they might need to go from good to dominant.

In fact the Rams organization seems to agree with both of us, since they drafted and signed defensive end Chris Long (yes, Howie’s son) and are paying him a salary that approaches that of Freeney and Allen. Long isn’t as speedy as Freeney or Allen though, and is more of an all-around style end like Strahan or Taylor. He has an almost 50/50 home/away split on his NFL career sacks although he has only recorded 9 sacks in his first two seasons with the Rams. That does not quite match his 2007 season with Virginia in which earned 14 sacks over 13 games or justify his 2nd overall draft position.

So I do think the Rams could efficiently pay for an electric sack machine like Dwight Freeney or Jared Allen to bring some excitement back to the franchise, but their recent effort to do just that has regrettably fallen short… so far.