THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 12

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Those fans that read last week’s post must know how crushed I felt when I saw the #1 ranked Green Bay Packers go to Atlanta and lose.  Not only did I fear that they would lose their #1 spot, but I also trembled at the thought of the Packers having to visit Atlanta again in the playoffs.

At least one of those things didn’t come true.  Since the Falcons are a highly rated team (#6 this week) the three point loss didn’t cripple the Packers’ position in the Power Rank.  In fact, this three point loss was the Packer’s fourth three point loss this season, and it’s the only way they’ve lost in 2010.

Moving past my own NFC interests, the rest of the league is continuing the trends of the season: the top continues to flatten out, the middle continues to see lots of movement but few breakouts, and the bottom continues to be dominated by the NFC West.  It’s really sad that three of the bottom four teams are all from that division, but it’s true.

For this week I’ve brought back the checkup graph that I did for week seven that charted how each team had changed in the last few weeks.

The most notable items on the graph are the teams at the top.  With the exception of newcomer Green Bay, they have all maintained their places of dominance for the last five weeks with little ranking change.  Their ratings, especially those of the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers, have plummeted.  I think this is more a function of their schedules getting tougher and these teams having to play each other than it is an indication that they are getting weaker.  If there isn’t parity in league there certainly is near the top this year.

The last thing I want to mention this week in Monday night’s game.  After this past week’s Arizona (#31) and San Francisco (#29) showdown that couldn’t have held much less interest for the league, this week’s match between New England (#3) and New York (#2) should be one for the ages.

These two division rivals are both playing at the top of their games and will be treating this one like a playoff game.  Expect things to get just as heated as the Cortland Finnegan/Andre Johnson brawl.  The Power Rank predicts a 0.22 difference in favor of the Jets in a neutral field.  I think home field advantage will tip the scales enough for the Pats to come away victors in this one.

The only thing that is fairly certain is that it will be fun to watch in spite of Gruden and Jaws.

1. Green Bay, 7-4, 6.82
2. New York Jets, 9-2, 5.93
3. New England, 9-2, 5.71
4. Baltimore, 8-3, 5.27
5. Pittsburgh, 8-3, 4.52
6. Atlanta, 9-2, 4.32
7. Philadelphia, 7-4, 4.07
8. San Diego, 6-5, 3.88
9. Indianapolis, 6-5, 3.18
10. Chicago, 8-3, 2.74
11. Kansas City, 7-4, 1.90
12. New Orleans, 8-3, 1.76
13. Tennessee, 5-6, 1.33
14. Miami, 6-5, 1.04
15. Cleveland, 4-7, 0.42
16. Houston, 5-6, 0.15
17. New York Giants, 7-4, 0.05
18. Detroit, 2-9, -1.16
19. Washington, 5-6, -1.79
20. Tampa Bay, 7-4, -1.92
21. Dallas, 3-8, -2.36
22. St. Louis, 5-6, -2.37
23. Jacksonville, 6-5, -2.52
24. Buffalo, 2-9, -2.67
25. Minnesota, 4-7, -2.74
26. Oakland, 5-6, -2.80
27. Denver, 3-8, -2.94
28. Cincinnati, 2-9, -3.01
29. San Francisco, 4-7, -3.81
30. Seattle, 5-6, -4.03
31. Arizona, 3-8, -7.88
32. Carolina, 1-10, -11.10

NFL Rankings, Week 11

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Happy Thanksgiving Power Rank fans!

Whenever I read any kind of article, especially of an editorial nature, I always wonder about what kind of bias the author might have.  As a lifelong Packer fan living in America’s Dairyland it’s hard to not feel a swelling in my heart when I see that the unbiased rating of The Power Rank has put my beloved green and gold in first place, making them the first NFC team to earn that rank since the Saints held it in the 2009 season.

That heart swelling may also be related to my Wisconsin diet of beer, fried cheese, and bratwurst but I’m waiting on a second opinion on that.

What may surprise some fans is why the Packers have made the ascension to the #1 spot.

In the preseason rankings the Packers were expected to be an offensive powerhouse, but with key injuries to Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley the offense has only been 8th overall in points scored.  Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and the Packers defense have carried them by tying the Bears for the least points allowed this season.

A key for the super-aggressive Packer defense has been staying away from penalties.  When refs let them play, the violence of Matthews and Woodson create turnovers and terrorize ball carriers.  When the game is called tightly, the Packers end up with many crippling penalties like the 18 they had against the Bears.  Look for this to continue to be a decisive factor in Packer games this year.

Ok, ok…  I’m done gushing over my team.

I want to talk more generally about the continued polarization of teams in this year of parity.  In week six I wrote about the middle of the pack and the mass of teams near the zero rating point.  In that week there were 16 teams between +2.00 and -2.00 in the ratings, now we are down to nine.

What’s more interesting as the playoffs draw closer is that there is only a 0.79 difference between the #2 Jets (5.60)and the #7 Steelers (4.81).  That’s a smaller gap than that between the Steelers and the #8 Falcons (3.77).  Since five of these six teams are in the AFC it’s apparent that homefield advantage is going to be more important than ever for the AFC playoffs, and that those playoffs should be very well matched and among the most exciting to watch in years.

Finally, I want to address the Parity Wheel that was released this week.  It’s a graphic designed to show how every team in the NFL can be linked to each other through wins.  On the original wheel (top) each team beat the team clockwise from them by the score indicated.

I thought this was especially interesting because The Power Rank takes this kind of information into account, and I wrote about the lack of parity in the NFL a couple weeks ago.  So I decided to clear out the scores and replace them with each team’s current rank, at least for the top and bottom ten teams in the bottom graphic.

Not surprisingly both the top and bottom ten teams are grouped together on this graphic, just as they were on the graphs posted in this blog in previous weeks.

The Packers are starting to break away from the pack as a dominant top team, and the Panthers remain the most decisively bad team but within the top, middle, and bottom packs the competition remains tight.

1. Green Bay, 7-3, 7.43
2. New York Jets, 8-2, 5.60
3. Baltimore, 7-3, 5.33
4. Philadelphia, 7-3, 5.11
5. New England, 8-2, 5.06
6. Indianapolis, 6-4, 4.91
7. Pittsburgh, 7-3, 4.81
8. Atlanta, 8-2, 3.77
9. Tennessee, 5-5, 3.08
10. Chicago, 7-3, 2.42
11. San Diego, 5-5, 2.24
12. New Orleans, 7-3, 1.27
13. Kansas City, 6-4, 1.04
14. Miami, 5-5, 0.87
15. Cleveland, 3-7, 0.61
16. New York Giants, 6-4, 0.25
17. Detroit, 2-8, 0.14
18. Washington, 5-5, -0.58
19. Houston, 4-6, -0.75
20. Dallas, 3-7, -1.93
21. Oakland, 5-5, -2.24
22. Jacksonville, 6-4, -2.27
23. Denver, 3-7, -2.34
24. Cincinnati, 2-8, -2.51
25. Tampa Bay, 7-3, -2.83
26. Buffalo, 2-8, -2.90
27. St. Louis, 4-6, -3.10
28. Minnesota, 3-7, -3.19
29. Seattle, 5-5, -3.62
30. San Francisco, 3-7, -4.46
31. Arizona, 3-7, -7.42
32. Carolina, 1-9, -13.78

NFL Rankings, Week 3

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With only 3 weeks of data in the books, I’m going to call this week’s update premature infatuation.

As Ed’s well crafted haiku suggests, the dominant Pittsburgh Steelers start at the top of our rankings this season. They helped cement their position by beating Atlanta (currently ranked #2) and Tennessee (currently ranked #6) in their first 3 weeks, in addition to absolutely crushing a weak Tampa Bay team.

Pittsburgh’s wins over both Tennessee and Atlanta were not completely dominating victories. They beat Tennessee by 8 and Atlanta by 6 in overtime. So why would The Power Rank suggest that Pittsburgh with a rating of 18.25 would beat a 2-1 Indianapolis team, ranked surprisingly low at #19 with a rating of -1.23, by a margin of 19.5 points at a neutral site?

For new fans of the The Power Rank, this is a great example of how the system works. Pittsburgh’s wins over Tennessee and Atlanta were not dominant but these teams have crushed their competitors. Other than the loss to Pittsburgh, Tennessee has crushed both the Raiders and the Giants by a combined margin of 44 points. In Atlanta’s other two games, they crushed a 2-1 Arizona by 34 points and edged out reigning Super Bowl champs New Orleans on their home turf.

So Pittsburgh gets credit for beating teams that have beat other teams that have in turn beat other teams. This actually goes on and on around the league to consider the relative strength of every team and then the value of each week’s victories.

A surprise in The Power Rank this week is my 2-1 Packers (#3) being ranked higher than the 3-0 Bears team (#5) that beat them on Monday night. The Packers come out on top in the rankings because of the strength of their victories against a tough Philadelphia team and their blowout of the Bills. Chicago on the other hand barely beat Detroit by a controversial call on Calvin Johnson’s non-TD catch in week 1, and then edged out a stalled Cowboys team by a score in week 2 before taking a win in week 3 from a Packers team that did everything in their power to lose the game.

Cleveland is another surprise, ranked at #15 with a positive rating of 0.63 in spite of their 0-3 schedule. With no wins yet they are ranked higher than twelve teams that have at least one win, including five teams that have two wins. Cleveland achieved this odd week 3 feat by losing all of their games by a combined margin of 12 points, and two of their close losses were against 3-0 Kansas City (#9) and 2-1 Baltimore (#7).

I hope these odd cases help illustrate the nature of the The Power Rank and how it functions beyond the actual records and total point differentials. Cases like these and the margin between the best and worst teams in the league will self correct as more data is entered every week and the ranking becomes a more reliable predictor of the true strength of each team.

Until then, avoid premature infatuation with both the early rankings here at The Power Rank as well as the current league standings. There’s a lot of football left to play and a lot of data to be processed.

NFL Preview

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After months of drama, it’s time to forget Roethlisberger’s indiscretions, Favre’s indecision, and Al Davis’ incompetence and start the NFL season. Here is the Power Rank’s 2010 NFL preview.

AFC East.

If you’re like me you’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knocks and head coach Rex Ryan has intimidated you into believing that his Jets are going to repeat their playoff run. Darrelle Revis (CB, 24) has a contract, Ladanian Tomlinson (RB, 21) is in town, and Mark Sanchez (QB, 6) has a season of experience under his belt. Add this to an underrated receiving corps and you’ll be hearing lots of “J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!” cheers this winter.

The division doesn’t stop in New York though. Randy Moss (WR, 81) and Tom Brady (QB, 12) are getting older but they’re still a major threat to any defense and head coach Bill Belichick can be expected to field a competitive team as he always does, even if they won’t be as dominant as they have been in the past.

The Miami Dolphins and their wildcat offensive scheme can be expected to make a splash again this year with the addition of receiving phenom (and headcase) Brandon Marshall (WR, 19). It will be interesting to see how Ronnie Brown (RB, 23) and Ricky Williams (RB, 34) will perform when teams can’t stack the box against them and their dominant offensive tackle Jake Long (T, 77).

The Bills have done little to improve, and their record will show it this year.

AFC North.

It’s the Raven’s year. Ray Rice (RB, 27) is looking to improve on a great season and Joe Flacco (QB, 5) is expected to break out with new targets like Anquan Boldin (WR, 81) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (WR). With a rock solid Greg Mattison coached defense led by Ray Lewis (MLB, 52) to keep opponents at bay, the Ravens are looking to play a game in February this year.

The Steelers and the Bengals will be looking to spoil the Raven’s Superbowl dreams with teams loaded with talent. The Bengals offense of Carson Palmer (QB, 5), Terrell Owens (WR, 81), and Chad Ochocinco (WR, 85), reads like an All-Star program… from the 2004 season. If they can collectively shake off the dust they will be a killer trio, but don’t expect this scenario to be likely. Pittsburgh enters the season without Big Ben (QB, 7) and in disarray offensively. But you can’t count out a Pittsburgh defense that’s 2 seasons removed from Superbowl glory. Expect some late season heroics that will see the men in black in the hunt for the postseason.

The Browns have been making moves to improve their team, but with Montario Hardesty (RB, 31) shredding his ACL they seem to be the wrong moves. At least they got rid of Brady Quinn though, right?

AFC South.

The Colts haven’t gone anywhere. Peyton Manning (QB, 18) will continue to be the best in the NFL (and possibly history) and he’s got all of the same targets that he had last year, plus Anthony Gonzalez (WR, 11). The really bad news for Colts haters: Bob Sanders (SS, 21) is back and is looking good in the defensive backfield.

Don’t expect to see anyone else take this division, but don’t be surprised if there’s at least one and maybe even two wildcards coming from the South. The Texans are a lot of analyst’s breakout pick this year, but they have been for the last few years running. Matt Schaub (QB,8) has the tools on the outside led by Andre Johnson (WR, 80), but injuries and running back controversy may continue to plague this team.

The Titans return with Chris Johnson (RB, 28) hoping to repeat and improve on his 2000 yard season, but that may prove difficult with the loss of blocker Kevin Mawae (C). Vince Young (QB, 10) rounds out the offensive attack that will keep the Titans competitive with any team in the NFL.

The Jaguars’ explosive back Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, 32) is expected to start the season healthy, but preseason injuries leave doubts about his effectiveness this year. With little passing attack and a lackluster defense, expect the Jags to stay in limbo this year.

AFC West.

Yet again, it’s going to be all Chargers this year in the AFC West. Phillip Rivers (QB, 17) will continue to throw touchdowns with or without Vincent Jackson (WR, 83), and running back Ryan Matthews (RB, 24) from Fresno State seems to be everyone’s pick for Rookie of the Year. Don’t forget the explosive and versatile Darren Sproles (RB, 43) and the solid defense that will help the Chargers slide into what may be the easiest playoff slot in the NFL this season.

Let’s look at the other quarterbacks in this divison: Cassel (KC), Orton/Tebow/Quinn (DEN), and Jason Campbell (OAK). Some people are big on Jason Campbell (QB,8) to finally breakout, others think Matt Cassel (QB, 7) will regain his Patriot glory… don’t buy it. These guys are mediocre at best and the only target worth mentioning on all three teams is Dwayne Bowe (WR, 82) of Kansas City. Don’t expect to see any of these teams in January this year. If you’re like me, you’re just hoping that rookie Tim Tebow (QB, 15) will get a chance to skipper the Broncos and show what his athleticism and poor mechanics can do.

NFC East.

The best division in the NFL is just too close to call. The Cowboys bring back Tony Romo (QB, 9), a stacked backfield, a nasty defense, and a possible future star in Dez Bryant (WR, 88). The Eagles return with their signature defensive power and a very young but very talented offense led by Kevin Kolb (QB, 4), DeSean Jackson (WR, 10), Jeremy Maclin (WR, 18), and Brent Celek (TE, 87). The Giants didn’t get the better of the Manning brothers but Eli (QB, 10) is a solid performer with good targets in Steve Smith (WR, 12) and Hakeem Nicks (WR, 88), and the third strong defense in the division.

The only team the won’t be on top of this royal rumble is Washington. The Redskins’ strategy of overspending on aging stars will continue to haunt them as Donovan McNabb (QB, 5) and Clinton Portis (RB, 26) will not live up to their 2004 stat lines, which will only be a shock to the Washington front office.

NFC North.

As a Packer fan, it pains me to say the you can expect to see more purple this January. Brett Favre (QB, 4) is back for one reason, and that is to win a Superbowl. The hall of famer is backed by the single most dominant player in the game, Adrian Peterson (RB, 28), and pass rushing media darling Jared Allen (DE, 69) (for more on Allen, check out this week’s Fine Line).

The Packers will be one of the most dangerous teams on the gridiron this year. Aaron Rodgers (QB, 12) is enjoying a statistically unprecedented start to his career with a bevy of targets that can score almost at will. Veteran slant receiver Donald Driver (WR, 80) and burner Greg Jennings (WR, 85) are joined by the emerging talent of Jermichael Finley (TE, 88), James Jones (WR, 89), and Jordy Nelson (WR, 87). Charles Woodson (CB, 21) and Clay Matthews (OLB, 52) lead the defense with the most takeaways in the league, but the Green Bay defense also has some big holes that make them more porous than consistent, which will cost them over the season.

The Bears welcome new offensive coordinator Mike Martz who will have little to work with this year. Calling Jay Cutler (QB, 6) a gunslinger won’t make him Brett Favre (MIN), and even though Matt Forte (RB, 22) is poised for comeback year it won’t be enough to keep this offense from stalling on a weekly basis.

The Lions are likely to continue to be the worst team in the NFL, but at least they are rebuilding aggressively with Matthew Stafford (QB, 9), Calvin “Megatron” Johnson (WR, 81), and Jahvid Best (RB, 44). Look for this squad to make waves in my 2013 season preview.

NFC South.

The reigning Superbowl champs won’t have the magic of 2009, but the Saints will still be a force this year. Drew Brees (QB, 9) and his targets Marques Colston (WR, 12), Jeremy Shockey (TE, 88), and emerging Robert Meachem (WR, 17) will perform on a weekly basis in one of the most potent offenses in the league. The defense was a surprise last year and won’t perform quite as well as last year, but the noise of the awakened “Who dat” nation will support them at home as a solid 12th man.

The Falcons whole team hit a sophomore slump last year as Matt Ryan (QB, 2), Michael Turner (RB, 33), and Roddy White (WR, 84) all failed to live up to high expectations as the team was plagued with injuries and misfortune. Expect this year to go by more smoothly, for Turner to return to dominance, and the Falcons to become competitive again.

The Panthers and Buccaneers have always been known for solid defenses but their lackluster offensive traditions will hold them back again this year. Carolina wisely dumped Jake Delhomme, but haven’t filled the spot with experience, and that will cost them. Tampa Bay also has quarterback woes even though Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE, 82) is sure to be one of the best targets in the league.

NFC West.

Someone has to get into the playoffs by default from this division, and it’s a shame.

The 49ers will most likely win out in this division with a nasty defense led by Patrick Willis (MLB, 52) and under the tutelage of head coach Mike Singletary. Their offense will continue to pound the ball on with Frank Gore (RB, 21) and the new addition of veteran running back Brian Westbrook the ground attack may be even more potent that usual. Vernon Davis (TE, 85) will snag a few touchdowns from Alex Smith (QB, 11) but don’t expect the passing attack to be featured in San Francisco this year.

The Cardinals still have Larry Fitzgerald (WR, 11) and Steve Breaston (WR, 15), but they’ve lost Anquan Boldin (WR) and Kurt Warner (QB), and have recently cut Matt Leinart (QB). For a team that lives and dies with their air attack, you can expect this team to die many painful deaths on the field this year.

Pete Carroll seems to be cleaning house in Seattle this year, cutting TJ Houshmanzadeh (WR) and picking up 6 million dollars of his salary while the Ravens enjoy his talent. Veteran running back Julius Jones is also unemployed this fall. The message from Seattle: we’re rebuilding, don’t expect us to win this year.

St. Louis seems to have picked a gem in Sam Bradford (QB,8) who’s looked sharp leading the offense this preseason, but the Rams’ problems go beyond what one rookie quarterback can fix. Expect Bradford and Steven Jackson (RB, 39) to pull out a couple wins this year but not a whole lot more than that.

Pittsburgh Fans

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I’ve only ever been to one NFL game.  In 2006, the Pittsburgh Steelers came to the Bay area to play the Oakland Raiders.  In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are a religion, and the disciples follow the team plane wherever it travels.  My friend Jeremy Jones got 8 of his friends from Pittsburgh, including his dad, to fly out for a few nights of drinking and the game.  It might be my last Steelers game though, as they lost to a Raiders teams that ended up winning two games that year.  A win at Oakland would have put the Steelers in the playoffs that year.

While everyone in Pittsburgh is a Steelers fan, it takes another level of dedication to follow the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This major league baseball franchise hasn’t won more than half their games since 1992.  With the lowest payroll in baseball, they spend about one sixth the money of the top spenders.  But Jeremy Jones follows every move the team makes.  Recently, he told me he thinks the Pirates will break 500 next year, a claim he’s made before.  But for now, he’s stuck following the worst team in the Power Rank.  A month ago, he sent me a haiku:

I hate powerrank
biggest gap equals Pirates
as true as it is

Not much as changed since; it takes awhile to scroll down to the Pirates.  Jeremy Jones, you’re a true fan.  When the Pirates win the World Series, you have the right to celebrate in whatever manner you see fit.