THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 15

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To continue last week’s discussion of The Power Rank’s predicted playoff picture, I’d like to start with the games that were predicted incorrectly.

Misses by the Power Rank include Philadelphia over New York, Kansas City over St. Louis, and Detroit over Tampa Bay.  These are unfortunate errors, but the fault may not lie with The Power Rank, but rather with its interpreter…  me.

Last week I mentioned that The Power Rank accounts for games played in neutral sites, which isn’t the case for NFL football games other than the Super Bowl.  I gave each of the home teams an added three points to their rating, and in each of those games, there was an upset.  Had I stuck purely to The Power Rank’s ratings the predictions would have been 100% accurate.  Apparently my arbitrary adjustment was a little too much.

As it is, two of those three games were very close finishes.  Detroit beat Tampa Bay with a field goal in overtime, and New York lost to Philadelphia when their rookie punter made the mistake of letting DeSean Jackson get a chance to return a punt on the last play of the game…  which he returned for the winning touchdown.  The Kansas City win over St. Louis was far more convincing.

In all of the games where the three point adjustment didn’t affect the outcome the Power Rank was spot on.  Let’s see if it can keep up its streak in week 16!

The only game in the remainder of the season that was affected by the three point adjustment is this week’s match between the Bears and Jets in Chicago.  In light of last week’s revelation, I will take away the three points earlier spotted to the Bears and predict that the Jets will be victorious in spite of Rex Ryan’s alleged foot fetish fiasco.  The Jets will also be helped by the most unpalatable of late season NFL traditions, clinched teams sitting stars to get them rest before the playoffs.  The Bears have clinched the NFC North division and may rest some of their key personnel for a good portion of the game.

Speaking of clinched teams, Atlanta has also secured a spot in the playoffs, although they still have to fight for homefield advantage, and with division rival and playoff bound New Orleans visiting Atlanta this week they will have their work cut out for them.

The NFC playoff prediction has been significantly altered by last week’s errors.  With their loss to the Eagles, the Giants are predicted to lose their playoff spot to the highest Power Ranked NFC team, the Green Bay Packers.  The Rams loss to the Chiefs opened up the NFC West, with San Francisco staying alive and Pete Carrol’s Seahawks pulling into the lead.

In the AFC, the Patriots clinched a playoff berth with the help of an improbable 71 yard kick return by their guard Dan Connolly.  The Steelers have also clinched a spot, although neither team has clinched their division or locked up home field advantage.

The only change to the AFC prediction from last week is that Kansas City’s record improves although they would lose out to the Chargers based on the third NFL divisional tiebreaker, record in common games.

Games to watch this week:

Giants(#15) at Packers (#2) – The two playoff contenders meet in Lambeau in a must-win game for both franchises.  Prediction:  Packers win.

Seattle (#29) at Tampa Bay (#21) – Seattle can lose in Tampa Bay and still get into the playoffs with a win over St. Louis in week 17, but Tampa must win to keep hope alive.  Expect both teams to come hungry with a win by the Bucs.

San Francisco (#28) at St. Louis (#27) – Two division rivals in a win-or-go-home scenario, directly next to each other with less than one point of rankings separating them?  It may be the Toilet Bowl, but it should be an exciting game.

1. New England, 12-2, 9.35
2. Green Bay, 8-6, 6.19
3. Pittsburgh, 10-4, 5.15
4. Baltimore, 10-4, 5.15
5. Atlanta, 12-2, 4.78
6. Philadelphia, 10-4, 4.67
7. San Diego, 8-6, 4.60
8. Indianapolis, 8-6, 3.16
9. New York Jets, 10-4, 2.84
10. New Orleans, 10-4, 2.44
11. Chicago, 10-4, 2.43
12. Tennessee, 6-8, 1.79
13. Cleveland, 5-9, 1.28
14. Miami, 7-7, 0.88
15. New York Giants, 9-5, 0.83
16. Kansas City, 9-5, -0.43
17. Oakland, 7-7, -0.50
18. Detroit, 4-10, -0.59
19. Houston, 5-9, -0.98
20. Dallas, 5-9, -1.19
21. Jacksonville, 8-6, -1.83
22. Buffalo, 4-10, -1.83
23. Tampa Bay, 8-6, -2.04
24. Washington, 5-9, -2.81
25. Cincinnati, 3-11, -2.89
26. Minnesota, 5-9, -3.29
27. St. Louis, 6-8, -3.54
28. San Francisco, 5-9, -4.48
29. Seattle, 6-8, -4.96
30. Denver, 3-11, -5.09
31. Arizona, 4-10, -7.80
32. Carolina, 2-12, -11.30

NFL Rankings, Week 14

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In the immortal words of Leonard Nimoy:  I am about to boldly go where The Power Rank’s predictive capability has never gone before.

OK.  So that might be a slight misquote, but I’m sure if the NFL were popular on Vulcan he very well might have said it.  After all, how could Spock resist the logic of The Power Rank algorithm?

A few weeks ago, I discussed playoff predictions and how The Power Rank’s best teams didn’t quite match up with the current playoff scenario at the time, in a very incomplete season.  This week I’ve used The Power Rank’s week 14 ratings to project the victors of all games in the final three weeks of the season and calculated who will make the playoffs based on those projections.

One important modification had to be made, however, as The Power Rank’s ratings only account for a game in a neutral location.  A common practice for football bettors is to give an automatic three points to the home team to compensate for the home field advantage.  I used that convenient number to do the same with The Power Rank’s ratings when projecting the outcome of the remaining games in the season.

This three point home field bonus was surprisingly not a factor in most of the games.  Instances where it did change the outcome of a game were generally very good match ups that will certainly be big games in the upcoming weeks.

Home Field Upset Number One – Bears (#12) over Jets (#10) in week 16.  A battle between two of the NFL’s nastiest defenses fighting for a playoff spot in late December…  it could be the tag line for a movie.

Home Field Upset Number Two – Rams (#25) over Chiefs (#16) in week 15.  The Rams make a huge jump through that tightly packed middle to beat cross-state rivals.  If this prediction is correct it locks up the Ram’s playoff spot and shuts Kansas City out.

Home Field Upset Number Three – Giants (#14) over Eagles (#6) in week 15.  This one is huge.  With the three point bonus, New York edges out Philly by a mere .08 points.  If this tiniest of margins helps sway the game in favor of the Giants it will not only edge Green Bay (#3) out of the playoffs but also make a tie for division winner between the Eagles and Giants in overall record, head-to-head record, and division record.  Even though both teams make the playoffs either way, a Giants win could bring the seeding into question.

Home Field Upset Number Four – Buccaneers (#21) over Lions (#19) in week 15.  This…  is not an exciting game.  The Lions proved last week against the Packers that they could be potent playoff spoilers, but The Power Rank suggests that the Lions won’t thaw in time to win when visiting sunny Tampa Bay.  This win helps Tampa eventually climb to 10-6, but they still fall short of the playoffs unless…

Non-Upset Big Game Number One – Buccaneers (#21) at New Orleans (#8) in week 17.  The Power Rank predicts a solid victory for the Saints, but consider this a March Madness style play-in game.  The Power Rank predicts both NFC South teams will enter this game at 10-5, meaning the winner will move on and the losers will go home.  If both teams do show up tied expect a battle.

Check out the predictions for Week 15 here.

On to the winners…

The AFC doesn’t have many surprises as the top ranked teams finish strong and secure their playoff spots.

The NFC is a bit more jumbled.  #3 ranked Green Bay feels the sting of five losses by a total of 16 points and doesn’t make it.  Making Packer and Buccaneer fans especially angry is St. Louis limping in with the NFC West title and an 8-8 record.

So, 10  of the Power Rank’s top 12 are expected to make the cut.  The exceptions are Green Bay (#3) and Cleveland (#11), with the Giants (#14) and St. Louis (#25) taking their place instead.

1. New England, 11-2, 9.29
2. Pittsburgh, 10-3, 5.98
3. Green Bay, 8-5, 5.69
4. Baltimore, 9-4, 5.22
5. Atlanta, 11-2, 4.78
6. Philadelphia, 9-4, 4.12
7. San Diego, 7-6, 4.09
8. New Orleans, 10-3, 3.03
9. Indianapolis, 7-6, 2.87
10. New York Jets, 9-4, 1.83
11. Cleveland, 5-8, 1.53
12. Chicago, 9-4, 1.50
13. Tennessee, 5-8, 1.42
14. New York Giants, 9-4, 1.20
15. Miami, 7-6, 1.07
16. Kansas City, 8-5, -0.96
17. Houston, 5-8, -1.12
18. Oakland, 6-7, -1.15
19. Detroit, 3-10, -1.19
20. Dallas, 4-9, -1.22
21. Tampa Bay, 8-5, -1.52
22. Jacksonville, 8-5, -1.71
23. Buffalo, 3-10, -2.43
24. Minnesota, 5-8, -2.52
25. St. Louis, 6-7, -2.63
26. Cincinnati, 2-11, -3.03
27. Washington, 5-8, -3.23
28. San Francisco, 5-8, -3.59
29. Seattle, 6-7, -4.38
30. Denver, 3-10, -4.52
31. Arizona, 4-9, -7.01
32. Carolina, 1-12, -11.39

NFL Rankings, Week 7

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Since we are approaching the middle of the season I thought week 7 might be a nice time to reflect on how things have moved in the last few weeks of rating and ranking teams with the Power Rank algorithm.

The first thing that pops out is that four teams have stayed in the top five through the last few weeks, including the number one Jets retaining their spot at the top throughout.  Baltimore has only dropped one spot in the rankings, but note that their rating has dropped nearly four points in that time, meaning that if they were expected to win by a touchdown in week four they are only favored by a field goal now.

One of the biggest moves was the Titans who started at #14 but have since worked their way up to #4.  During this time their rating has increased from 0.05 to 6.40, showing that solid wins can help a team move from the middle ground limbo discussed last week into the realm of the dominant.

The biggest move was that of the Giants who have climbed an amazing 18 spots from #27 to #9, and have increased their rating by nearly seven points.  They have even surpassed Green Bay who have stayed consistently around #10, and this means that the Giants are joining the ranks of the elite NFC teams that could qualify as mediocre AFC teams.

A couple of teams have endured major rating changes without moving much in the ranking.  Kansas City has dropped nearly 7 points in rating, but they are still a top team in the league having only dropped four spots in the Power Rank from #3 to #7.  On the other end of the spectrum the Raiders have gained almost 5 rating points but have only moved up four spots in the Power Rank from #29 to #25.  If you recall the graph from last week, this simply means that these teams have moved from the fringe into the middle of the Power Rank where a couple big wins or losses can make huge differences – expect more movement from both of these teams in the near future.

How much movement can one expect in the middle?  Take Seattle for example.  They only lost 0.72 rating points but have fallen six spots in the Power Rank from #18 to #24.  Chicago also slid 5 spots from #15 to #20 while only having lost 1.17 rating points.  When you’re in the middle of the pack every game counts that much more.

These are just some of the biggest changes that have occurred over the last few weeks, but you can check out how your favorite teams have changed since week four in the following chart:

1. New York Jets, 5-1, 9.81
2. Pittsburgh, 5-1, 8.24
3. Baltimore, 5-2, 7.39
4. Tennessee, 5-2, 6.40
5. New England, 5-1, 6.27
6. Indianapolis, 4-2, 5.56
7. Kansas City, 4-2, 2.50
8. Atlanta, 5-2, 2.14
9. New York Giants, 5-2, 1.79
10. Green Bay, 4-3, 1.48
11. Miami, 3-3, 1.24
12. Houston, 4-2, 1.16
13. Minnesota, 2-4, 0.39
14. Denver, 2-5, 0.16
15. Washington, 4-3, 0.05
16. Philadelphia, 4-3, 0.03
17. Cincinnati, 2-4, -0.16
18. San Diego, 2-5, -0.42
19. Dallas, 1-5, -1.27
20. Chicago, 4-3, -1.29
21. St. Louis, 3-4, -1.42
22. Detroit, 1-5, -1.66
23. Cleveland, 2-5, -1.72
24. Seattle, 4-2, -2.11
25. Oakland, 3-4, -2.21
26. New Orleans, 4-3, -3.59
27. Buffalo, 0-6, -4.49
28. Jacksonville, 3-4, -4.70
29. Tampa Bay, 4-2, -5.09
30. San Francisco, 1-6, -6.25
31. Arizona, 3-3, -7.06
32. Carolina, 1-5, -11.22

NFL Preview

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After months of drama, it’s time to forget Roethlisberger’s indiscretions, Favre’s indecision, and Al Davis’ incompetence and start the NFL season. Here is the Power Rank’s 2010 NFL preview.

AFC East.

If you’re like me you’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knocks and head coach Rex Ryan has intimidated you into believing that his Jets are going to repeat their playoff run. Darrelle Revis (CB, 24) has a contract, Ladanian Tomlinson (RB, 21) is in town, and Mark Sanchez (QB, 6) has a season of experience under his belt. Add this to an underrated receiving corps and you’ll be hearing lots of “J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!” cheers this winter.

The division doesn’t stop in New York though. Randy Moss (WR, 81) and Tom Brady (QB, 12) are getting older but they’re still a major threat to any defense and head coach Bill Belichick can be expected to field a competitive team as he always does, even if they won’t be as dominant as they have been in the past.

The Miami Dolphins and their wildcat offensive scheme can be expected to make a splash again this year with the addition of receiving phenom (and headcase) Brandon Marshall (WR, 19). It will be interesting to see how Ronnie Brown (RB, 23) and Ricky Williams (RB, 34) will perform when teams can’t stack the box against them and their dominant offensive tackle Jake Long (T, 77).

The Bills have done little to improve, and their record will show it this year.

AFC North.

It’s the Raven’s year. Ray Rice (RB, 27) is looking to improve on a great season and Joe Flacco (QB, 5) is expected to break out with new targets like Anquan Boldin (WR, 81) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (WR). With a rock solid Greg Mattison coached defense led by Ray Lewis (MLB, 52) to keep opponents at bay, the Ravens are looking to play a game in February this year.

The Steelers and the Bengals will be looking to spoil the Raven’s Superbowl dreams with teams loaded with talent. The Bengals offense of Carson Palmer (QB, 5), Terrell Owens (WR, 81), and Chad Ochocinco (WR, 85), reads like an All-Star program… from the 2004 season. If they can collectively shake off the dust they will be a killer trio, but don’t expect this scenario to be likely. Pittsburgh enters the season without Big Ben (QB, 7) and in disarray offensively. But you can’t count out a Pittsburgh defense that’s 2 seasons removed from Superbowl glory. Expect some late season heroics that will see the men in black in the hunt for the postseason.

The Browns have been making moves to improve their team, but with Montario Hardesty (RB, 31) shredding his ACL they seem to be the wrong moves. At least they got rid of Brady Quinn though, right?

AFC South.

The Colts haven’t gone anywhere. Peyton Manning (QB, 18) will continue to be the best in the NFL (and possibly history) and he’s got all of the same targets that he had last year, plus Anthony Gonzalez (WR, 11). The really bad news for Colts haters: Bob Sanders (SS, 21) is back and is looking good in the defensive backfield.

Don’t expect to see anyone else take this division, but don’t be surprised if there’s at least one and maybe even two wildcards coming from the South. The Texans are a lot of analyst’s breakout pick this year, but they have been for the last few years running. Matt Schaub (QB,8) has the tools on the outside led by Andre Johnson (WR, 80), but injuries and running back controversy may continue to plague this team.

The Titans return with Chris Johnson (RB, 28) hoping to repeat and improve on his 2000 yard season, but that may prove difficult with the loss of blocker Kevin Mawae (C). Vince Young (QB, 10) rounds out the offensive attack that will keep the Titans competitive with any team in the NFL.

The Jaguars’ explosive back Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, 32) is expected to start the season healthy, but preseason injuries leave doubts about his effectiveness this year. With little passing attack and a lackluster defense, expect the Jags to stay in limbo this year.

AFC West.

Yet again, it’s going to be all Chargers this year in the AFC West. Phillip Rivers (QB, 17) will continue to throw touchdowns with or without Vincent Jackson (WR, 83), and running back Ryan Matthews (RB, 24) from Fresno State seems to be everyone’s pick for Rookie of the Year. Don’t forget the explosive and versatile Darren Sproles (RB, 43) and the solid defense that will help the Chargers slide into what may be the easiest playoff slot in the NFL this season.

Let’s look at the other quarterbacks in this divison: Cassel (KC), Orton/Tebow/Quinn (DEN), and Jason Campbell (OAK). Some people are big on Jason Campbell (QB,8) to finally breakout, others think Matt Cassel (QB, 7) will regain his Patriot glory… don’t buy it. These guys are mediocre at best and the only target worth mentioning on all three teams is Dwayne Bowe (WR, 82) of Kansas City. Don’t expect to see any of these teams in January this year. If you’re like me, you’re just hoping that rookie Tim Tebow (QB, 15) will get a chance to skipper the Broncos and show what his athleticism and poor mechanics can do.

NFC East.

The best division in the NFL is just too close to call. The Cowboys bring back Tony Romo (QB, 9), a stacked backfield, a nasty defense, and a possible future star in Dez Bryant (WR, 88). The Eagles return with their signature defensive power and a very young but very talented offense led by Kevin Kolb (QB, 4), DeSean Jackson (WR, 10), Jeremy Maclin (WR, 18), and Brent Celek (TE, 87). The Giants didn’t get the better of the Manning brothers but Eli (QB, 10) is a solid performer with good targets in Steve Smith (WR, 12) and Hakeem Nicks (WR, 88), and the third strong defense in the division.

The only team the won’t be on top of this royal rumble is Washington. The Redskins’ strategy of overspending on aging stars will continue to haunt them as Donovan McNabb (QB, 5) and Clinton Portis (RB, 26) will not live up to their 2004 stat lines, which will only be a shock to the Washington front office.

NFC North.

As a Packer fan, it pains me to say the you can expect to see more purple this January. Brett Favre (QB, 4) is back for one reason, and that is to win a Superbowl. The hall of famer is backed by the single most dominant player in the game, Adrian Peterson (RB, 28), and pass rushing media darling Jared Allen (DE, 69) (for more on Allen, check out this week’s Fine Line).

The Packers will be one of the most dangerous teams on the gridiron this year. Aaron Rodgers (QB, 12) is enjoying a statistically unprecedented start to his career with a bevy of targets that can score almost at will. Veteran slant receiver Donald Driver (WR, 80) and burner Greg Jennings (WR, 85) are joined by the emerging talent of Jermichael Finley (TE, 88), James Jones (WR, 89), and Jordy Nelson (WR, 87). Charles Woodson (CB, 21) and Clay Matthews (OLB, 52) lead the defense with the most takeaways in the league, but the Green Bay defense also has some big holes that make them more porous than consistent, which will cost them over the season.

The Bears welcome new offensive coordinator Mike Martz who will have little to work with this year. Calling Jay Cutler (QB, 6) a gunslinger won’t make him Brett Favre (MIN), and even though Matt Forte (RB, 22) is poised for comeback year it won’t be enough to keep this offense from stalling on a weekly basis.

The Lions are likely to continue to be the worst team in the NFL, but at least they are rebuilding aggressively with Matthew Stafford (QB, 9), Calvin “Megatron” Johnson (WR, 81), and Jahvid Best (RB, 44). Look for this squad to make waves in my 2013 season preview.

NFC South.

The reigning Superbowl champs won’t have the magic of 2009, but the Saints will still be a force this year. Drew Brees (QB, 9) and his targets Marques Colston (WR, 12), Jeremy Shockey (TE, 88), and emerging Robert Meachem (WR, 17) will perform on a weekly basis in one of the most potent offenses in the league. The defense was a surprise last year and won’t perform quite as well as last year, but the noise of the awakened “Who dat” nation will support them at home as a solid 12th man.

The Falcons whole team hit a sophomore slump last year as Matt Ryan (QB, 2), Michael Turner (RB, 33), and Roddy White (WR, 84) all failed to live up to high expectations as the team was plagued with injuries and misfortune. Expect this year to go by more smoothly, for Turner to return to dominance, and the Falcons to become competitive again.

The Panthers and Buccaneers have always been known for solid defenses but their lackluster offensive traditions will hold them back again this year. Carolina wisely dumped Jake Delhomme, but haven’t filled the spot with experience, and that will cost them. Tampa Bay also has quarterback woes even though Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE, 82) is sure to be one of the best targets in the league.

NFC West.

Someone has to get into the playoffs by default from this division, and it’s a shame.

The 49ers will most likely win out in this division with a nasty defense led by Patrick Willis (MLB, 52) and under the tutelage of head coach Mike Singletary. Their offense will continue to pound the ball on with Frank Gore (RB, 21) and the new addition of veteran running back Brian Westbrook the ground attack may be even more potent that usual. Vernon Davis (TE, 85) will snag a few touchdowns from Alex Smith (QB, 11) but don’t expect the passing attack to be featured in San Francisco this year.

The Cardinals still have Larry Fitzgerald (WR, 11) and Steve Breaston (WR, 15), but they’ve lost Anquan Boldin (WR) and Kurt Warner (QB), and have recently cut Matt Leinart (QB). For a team that lives and dies with their air attack, you can expect this team to die many painful deaths on the field this year.

Pete Carroll seems to be cleaning house in Seattle this year, cutting TJ Houshmanzadeh (WR) and picking up 6 million dollars of his salary while the Ravens enjoy his talent. Veteran running back Julius Jones is also unemployed this fall. The message from Seattle: we’re rebuilding, don’t expect us to win this year.

St. Louis seems to have picked a gem in Sam Bradford (QB,8) who’s looked sharp leading the offense this preseason, but the Rams’ problems go beyond what one rookie quarterback can fix. Expect Bradford and Steven Jackson (RB, 39) to pull out a couple wins this year but not a whole lot more than that.