THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 5

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Okay New England, we get it.  You’re good at football.  And St. Louis, it is likely that you’re already thinking more about the race to acquire Andrew Luck than the race to make the playoffs.  But today I’m not interested in the highs and lows of The Power Rank, I’m taking a shot at it’s sweet, juicy center.

To get a look at what truly constitutes the center of the Power Rank grouping, I used a mathematical formula for Standard Deviation, something that defines the variation from the mean (or average) in a data set.  If you’re enough of a nerd to not stick your tongue out at that definition and want to know more, you can look at Wikipedia’s explanation.

If you’re like me and most math classes made you go crossed-eyed and start drooling on yourself, all you really have to understand is that the bulk of a group (about 68%) falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean on either side, and that the bulk of the remainder (about 27%, for a total of 95% of the whole) falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

In other words, teams whose rating falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean (always 0.0 for the Power Rank) are all horribly mediocre.  Ok, that’s my inner pessimist coming out.  A more optimistic view for Eagles and Falcons fans might be to say that they are “on the bubble” when it comes to elite NFL teams (or horrible NFL teams, but we won’t dwell on that).  On the other hand, teams that exceed 2 standard deviations of distance from the mean are truly in a class of their own, either high class or low class depending on which side of the curve they are on.

That’s about as much explaining as I can do, although further questions about the mechanics of this process can be emailed to Ed, who will no doubt be able to give you a thorough explanation of the math that goes into this process.  For my part, I just plug numbers into a free online calculation program and analyze the output.  Ah… sweet, sweet technology.

On to football.

The standard deviation in this week’s power rank is 5.49.  That means that the bulk of teams will fall between 5.49 and -5.49, almost all teams will fall between 10.98 and -10.98, and teams beyond those ratings are truly special.

Congratulations to the Patriots (#1, 15.79) and the Packers (#2, 11.31) for pushing the limits and existing beyond the norm.  Perhaps even more congratulations are deserved by St. Louis (#32, -9.89) for not exceeding the norm…

Very few teams fall between the first and second standard deviations.  On the high side only Baltimore, Detroit, and New Orleans (by a hair) make the grade as especially good teams, whereas on the low end Denver, Arizona, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, and St. Louis all currently qualify as truly not very good teams.

That leaves the other 21 teams in the true statistical middle of the road.  Being in the middle isn’t all that bad, as you are supposedly as close to the top as you are to the bottom.  This is great news for 2010’s weekly bottom dweller Carolina, who finds themselves just within the boundaries of that first standard deviation, but not great news for teams hoping to return strong and make another playoff run like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, or Philadelphia.  Most importantly for these middling teams, their current ratings are not a death warrant for the season, they have no cause for alarm and no need whatsoever to join in the chase for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

A few things to consider for these middle teams:

1.  The current standard deviation is almost 1 point bigger than it was at the end of last year when it ended up at 4.59.

2.  At the end of last season The Power Rank was a little more balanced with one team above 2 standard deviations (New England) and one team below (Carolina).  Currently the two teams exceeding 2 standard deviations from the mean are both on the high side. Most likely, either New England or Green Bay will fall back into the sweet center during the season.

3.  When one (or both) of the juggernauts fall they will bring that standard deviation down with them.  This will cut some teams out of of the running for average status (look out Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Carolina!) but on the upside a few teams may be thrust into greatness without needing to earn it (it may finally be the year for Houston or San Diego to go all the way).

4.  When the standard deviation shrinks a couple struggling teams may also become hopeless.  But come on, we are only one quarter of the way through the season!  Now is the time for Vikings fans to Ponder over whether or not they can finish out 12-4, Miami fans to Marshall their courage, and Colts fans to…  oh, who am I kidding?  Without Manning they have lost their identity…  they should focus on battling St. Louis and Kansas City in the race for the #1 draft pick in 2012.

NFL Rankings, Week 4

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Upper middle class
The Eagles, Falcons, Steelers
Room for improvement

This week, we see the rankings compress a little bit more, a trend that should continue over the next few weeks as this year’s games stabilize.  The Patriots remain #1 with a 14.73 rating after losing in a shootout with red-hot Buffalo (#13, 1.20).  The Chiefs helped their fans get off the ledge by keeping the game with San Diego (#12, 2.02) to within a field goal, so despite their loss they climb out of the cellar to #30 with a rating of -8.26.  The Rams now occupy the not-so-coveted #32 spot with a rating of -10.96  after a humiliating loss to #3 Baltimore (7.75).

What this means is that last week the range of ratings between #1 New England and then #32 Kansas City was 35.63, whereas this week the difference between #1 New England and new #32 St. Louis is 25.69.  That’s not encouraging news for Rams fans, or for the entire state of Missouri.  What is does indicate is what the scoreboards have shown this year:  no team is utterly dominant (sorry, Mr. Brady) and no team is completely pathetic.  Bad, maybe…  but not insanely horrible as Kansas City’s -19.52 rating last week indicated.

The news is best for fans of the “upper-middle class” of the football teams.  Not the dominant upper crust teams like New England (#1, 14.73, Green Bay (#2, 11.37), and Baltimore (#3, 7.75) with giant stretches of blue glory next to their names.  No, this news is for the fans of teams between rank 4 and 16.  The fans of teams that were supposed to come out with guns blazing, but have somehow tripped over the starting line.  What happened to the free-agent force of the Eagles (#15, 0.82) that was so highly touted by the offseason hype machine?  Wasn’t the return of Matty-Ice with Julio “the missing piece” Jones supposed to take the Falcons (#16, 0.62) from a playoff team to a Super Bowl favorite?  Did the mighty Super Bowl runner-up Steelers really fall to #6 with a good but uninspiring rating of 3.97?

It is these teams who should take note of this week’s movement.  Success in climbing The Power Rank ladder isn’t going to be as much about raising their rating from the 0-4 range up to the heights of Patriots in the teens.  That just won’t happen.  Because the outliers like the Patriots and Packers have little to gain (mathematically speaking) by crushing teams that The Power Rank expects them to crush.  But they can lose a lot by falling to teams who are beneath them.  Even close wins to inferior teams will lower their prestige.  So Big Ben and the Steelers don’t have to worry about trying to hang 70 on the the Brown and the Bengals to catch up.  The Eagles don’t need DeSean Jackson to return 2 punts for touchdowns every game to become elite.  If they can just continue to win for a few more weeks, the over-inflated Patriots and Packers will fall to more reasonable and reachable positions.

*Interesting note:  Running numbers from this year alone, the Bills would be The Power Rank’s chosen team with a rating of 14.28, with the Raiders not far behind with a 13.97 rating.  St. Louis would still be in the cellar, but at an astounding -23.50 instead of their current rating of -10.96.  While the Bills are definitely the hottest team in the NFL and a quickly growing fan-favorite, their official position of #13 suits them quite a bit better.  The Bills have proven that they have the talent, but they still have yet to prove to the league and to the algorithm that they have the ability to be consistent.  Because after all, that is the mark of a true champion.  By considering last year’s data as well as this year’s, The Power Rank cuts through the knee-jerk reactions and keeps the Bills somewhat humble with objective mathematical analysis, while still allowing them room to continue climbing up the ladder if they continue their run of impressive wins.

NFL Rankings, Week 3

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Dear Chiefs Nation, I would like to dedicate this song to you.

No, it’s not just because I have extremely poor taste in cheesy 90’s pop music.  There really is cause to take a deep breath and repeat the mantra:  “It’s not that bad”.

Yes, the Power Rank is indicating that your team is ranked dead last with a whopping -19.52 rating.  Yes, the Power Rank is indicating that if the Chiefs played #1 ranked New England (rating 16.11) this week, they would probably lose by about 36 points.  And of course history has shown that if any NFL team would run up a score by 36 on a team that just lost their star running back (Jamaal Charles) to a season-ending injury, it would in fact be Bill Belichick’s Patriots.

Gloom and doom aside, there are things to be thankful for.  This week Kansas City only has to face the Power Rank’s #8 best San Diego, who with a ranking 3.58 and homefield advantage is likely to win.  But by a Power Rank predicted 23 points?  Not likely.

The main reason is that in week 3 although the Power Rank is more stable early on than it has ever been with enhanced algorithmic considerations, it is still somewhat short on solid in-season data.  With only 2 crushing defeats under their belts this season, the Chiefs are skewing lower than reasonable expectable, whereas other teams like the Patriots and Packers (#2, 11.57) are skewing high.

That is not to say that the Chiefs aren’t going to be bad this year, or that the Patriots and Packers aren’t among the NFL elite in 2011.  All three predictions are more than likely based on qualitative and quantitative assessments.  But the degree to which these teams will be dominant, or in the case of the Chiefs, dominated, are exaggerated this early in the season.

So Chiefs fans, take comfort that your division rival is unlikely to beat your team by a margin of more than three touchdowns.  Take comfort that even though your team is struggling, they may not yet be as bad as the 0-16 Detroit Lions.  And if all else fails, take comfort that next year Andrew Luck will probably be throwing deep strikes to Dwayne Bowe and screens to Jamaal Charles at Arrowhead in 2012 and beyond.

Super Bowl XLV Post-game

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For the Super Bowl post-game analysis, let’s take a look at the key matchups that I had identified in the pre-game article:

BJ Raji vs Doug Legursky (Not Maurkice Pouncey)

Even though stat sheets aren’t going to show that BJ Raji dominated the line in Super Bowl XLV, he and the rest of the Packers defensive line unit did a terrific job.

Pittsburgh’s running backs Mendenhall and Moore were able to average more than four yards per carry and score a touchdown, but most of their rushing success was at the edge rather than up the middle.  When a rushing team like Pittsburgh can’t get holes opened between the tackles they are going to have problems as the Steelers did on Sunday.

Also, the Packer’s pass rush up the middle collapsed the pocket on Ben Roethlisberger a number of times.  This includes the play where Roethlisberger was forced to make a bad throw that ended up being intercepted by Nick Collins for a touchdown.

Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson vs Hines Ward and Mike Wallace

In spite of Charles Woodson’s collar bone break the Packers secondary held strong on Sunday.  Wallace was able to break free a couple of times, including once for a touchdown, but he and Hines Ward were too often stopped on critical third down play that ended Pittsburgh drives and put the ball back in the hands of the Packers.

The Packers defensive backs also created two of the Packers three takeaways that ultimately proved decisive in the game where their offense didn’t turn the ball over once.

Aaron Rodgers vs Troy Polamalu

Aaron Rodgers’ numbers say it all – 304 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.  One of his touchdowns was a pass to Greg Jennings into a coverage hole that has been left open by Polamalu who had been faked out by Rodgers’ looking away from Jennings until he turned to throw the ball.

Some analysts have been saying that Rodgers should have had more yards because of all of the perfect passes that were dropped by Green Bay’s receivers.  I think the important thing to note is that Green Bay’s receivers, especially Jordy Nelson, did such a fantastic job running routes and finding holes in the Steeler pass coverage that the drops just looked spectacular because they could have easily gone for touchdowns.

People expect there to be animosity between the quarterback and receiver when dramatic drops like that occur, but that’s rarely the case.  When the receivers get open as often as the Packers receivers were, the conversation in the huddle is almost always a discussion of how that route succeeded or how that matchup is clearly favorable, and how to best go right back to it.  Which is what Rodgers and Nelson did all night long.

Polamalu’s unit was simply unable to adjust to the Packers passing scheme and Rodgers’ execution, and this matchup went decisively for the Packers.

Pittsburgh Linebackers vs Green Bay Offensive Line

Fans will remember a game that was more or less dominated by Green Bay, but Green Bay didn’t dominate their own line of scrimmage. The Steelers pass rush was able to sack Rodgers three times on Sunday with two of those sacks coming from the linebackers.  Rodgers was hurried and hit even more throughout the night and never did have an ample amount of time in the pocket.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, winning this matchup wasn’t as significant as losing the matchup between Polamalu and Rodgers, and the Green Bay quarterback was more often than not able to find his open targets before the pass rush got to him, sometimes only just.

Ben Roethlisberger vs Clay Matthews

On paper, Ben Roethlisberger clearly won the sack matchup against Clay Matthews who recorded no sacks, and the Green Bay defense which as a whole only earned one against Pittsburgh’s sturdy quarterback.

Instead of lone blitzers like Matthews fighting free and trying to make solo tackles, the Packers’ pass rush was so completely dominant that Roethlisberger never got much of a chance to slip away from tacklers as he so often does.  Pockets collapsed on Big Ben all night forcing him to make bad throws including two interceptions.

When Roethlisberger did manage to escape it wasn’t backward or laterally – meaning he couldn’t throw.  The pass rush from the sides (where Clay Matthews rushes from) instead pinched off behind Roethlisberger, forcing him up past the line of scrimmage where he could only run for yards rather than pass for them.  Roethlisberger rushed four times for 31 yards in the game which seems like a solid rushing performance, but in reality those small victories prevented the Steelers from doing what they do best – letting Roethlisberger make time for receivers to get open for a big pass play as Santonio Holmes had done for a Super Bowl victory two years earlier.

Stay tuned for The Power Rank year-end wrap up!

Final NFL Rankings after Super Bowl, February 2011:
1. New England, 14-3, 10.65
2. Green Bay, 14-6, 9.49
3. Pittsburgh, 14-5, 6.41
4. Baltimore, 13-5, 5.83
5. New York Jets, 13-6, 5.10
6. Chicago, 12-6, 3.55
7. Philadelphia, 10-7, 3.07
8. San Diego, 9-7, 2.98
9. Indianapolis, 10-7, 2.91
10. Atlanta, 13-4, 2.55
11. New Orleans, 11-6, 2.53
12. Detroit, 6-10, 1.13
13. Miami, 7-9, 0.42
14. New York Giants, 10-6, 0.40
15. Tennessee, 6-10, 0.37
16. Cleveland, 5-11, 0.18
17. Dallas, 6-10, -0.71
18. Oakland, 8-8, -0.78
19. Houston, 6-10, -0.94
20. Minnesota, 6-10, -1.26
21. Cincinnati, 4-12, -1.36
22. Tampa Bay, 10-6, -1.40
23. Kansas City, 10-7, -2.15
24. Washington, 6-10, -2.36
25. Jacksonville, 8-8, -3.48
26. Buffalo, 4-12, -3.74
27. St. Louis, 7-9, -3.99
28. Seattle, 8-10, -4.80
29. San Francisco, 6-10, -4.80
30. Denver, 4-12, -5.70
31. Arizona, 5-11, -8.06
32. Carolina, 2-14, -12.06

Super Bowl Preview

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The Super Bowl features a matchup between two unique franchises. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been owned by the Rooney family since their inception in 1933. Since the 1969 season, they have had three head coaches and won six Super Bowls. The San Francisco 49ers have had three head coaches in the last four months. The Green Bay Packers are a non-profit franchise. That’s right, their founding documents do not allow them to make money. The Packers are owned by their passionate fan base, like Tom’s aunt who has a chunk of the old Lambeau field in her freezer.

On the field, the game will be intense, as the players won’t play another meaningful game for another 7 months. How will Pittsburgh’s center, who has never started an NFL game, matchup against Green Bay’s immovable man child BJ Raji? Can Troy Polamalu read the soul of Aaron Rodgers? Does Ben Rothelisberger or Clay Matthews weigh more? Tom breaks it all down in his preview.

Here, we’ll focus on a prediction. On page 157 of the book The Odds, Chad Millman has an excellent description of how Vegas sets the line for the Super Bowl. A big factor in their analysis is common opponents. This year, Pittsburgh and Green Bay both played the 4 teams in the AFC East and the Atlanta Falcons. Tom breaks down these regular season games in this table, in which a positive point differential indicates a win for the Steelers or Packers.

Common opponents of Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

Moreover, Green Bay beat down Atlanta in the playoffs by 27 points, giving an average point differential of +12. Pittsburgh avenged their regular season loss to the Jets with a 5 point win in the playoffs, leading to a 0 average point differential. Overall, Green Bay outperformed Pittburgh against 4 of these 5 teams. Vegas accounts for these games in starting Green Bay as a 2.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh.

The Power Rank also considers these common opponents when ranking these two teams. However, the algorithm also accounts for games which link Pittsburgh and Green Bay by two teams. For example, Pittsburgh beat Oakland by 32, who lost to San Francisco by 9, who lost to Green Bay by 18. We’ll spare you the math; this sequence favors Pittsburgh. The algorithm actually accounts for sequences with any number of teams between Pittsburgh and Green Bay. It’s a little difficult to track all these sequences with pencil and paper.

In the end, The Power Rank has Green Bay by 2.6 points over Pittsburgh, very close to the Vegas line of 2.5. In essence, it’s a coin flip to determine whether Green Bay wins by 3 or more or Pittsburgh loses by less than three or wins. When our prediction and the line are this close, it is not advisable to wager money. This has happened in two playoff games this year. In the other 8 games, The Power Rank beat the line in 6. We’ll see see how 2.6 does on Sunday.