THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 8

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This week I am going to take a page out of the Fox News playbook.

Hey?  Where are you going?  Don’t worry, I’m not going to try to sell you Food Insurance.  I just want to focus this week’s discussion on the key battleground divisions the way news networks look at swing states while ignoring the rest of the country.  So Rams fans can breathe easy, I won’t be taking so many shots at your team this week.  Besides, you should all still be celebrating the (baseball) Cardinals victory!

Battleground Division #1 – NFC North

The NFC North is stacked with talent this year, led by the Super Bowl champion and The Power Rank leader Green Bay Packers (#1, 11.55).  Normally having a team like the Packers in a division would settle matters, but this year it does not.  The reason is that the Lions (#4,  5.17) are right on the Packers’ heels, and the Bears (#9, 3.78) are not that far behind.  That’s three top ten teams in one division.  The Lions may have a hard time keeping up their pace especially with their oft-injured quarterback having ankle problems last week, and the Bears are legendary for pulling wins out of thin air.  Just ask Dennis Green!  Even if the Packers’ high level of success continues and they lock up the division title early, the Bears and Lions will both still likely be in the playoff hunt, in fact if the playoffs started today both teams would receive a wildcard berth.  With a lot of division games left the NFC North division is going to be an interesting one to watch.

Battleground #2 – AFC North

What’s with the North being so good at football?  Although the AFC North doesn’t feature three top ten teams as the NFC North does, it comes very close.  This division is led by the Baltimore Ravens (#3, 7.80) but they are actually a half-game behind the Steelers (#11, 2.58) and only a half game ahead of the Bengals (#12, 1.69).  Now, I know nobody talks about the “top twelve” of any lists, but it is nonetheless impressive that this tight grouping all falls within the top 12 teams in The Power Rank.  It’s hardly a revelation to NFL fans that the Steelers and Ravens are going to be battling for a division title, or that the loser is likely to grab a wildcard spot.  What is unlikely is the upstart Bengals sticking their noses into the mix.  With a third solid team to contend with the Steelers and Ravens will not be able to take anything for granted this season, and the fight for a playoff berth may get ugly in this division that is known for misconduct both on and off the field.

Battleground #3 – NFC East

The NFC East doesn’t carry nearly as many strong teams as the NFC and AFC North divisions do, but with some schedule oddities the team that The Power Rank picks as the clear division favorite is lagging behind in the actual standings.  The Cowboys (#8, 3.85) should be running away with this division in light of the fact that their closest competition should be the Eagles (#18, -0.89) who are also struggling to find wins.  Instead the Giants (#24, -3.29) are leading the division with a 4-2 record.  True, it’s early in the season.  And yes, we at The Power Rank do think that as things shake out the Cowboys’ record will start to match their apparent strength.  Even so, with poor starts from teams with high expectations and surprising starts from teams with low ones, everyone is in the mix here and every game is going to be an especially heated contest.

Non-Battleground – AFC East

The Power Rank is scheduled to get some East Coast bias with our next software upgrade.  If you want to hear how this is the only division that matters this year (or any other) tune into ESPN.  We apologize for the inconvenience.  Sure, the AFC East has a lot of strength in top ten teams New England (#2, 9.77) and New York (#7, 4.36) but in spite of what some sports news anchors would have you believe, this is not news.  The addition of the up and coming Bills (#16, 0.41) is shaking some fans’ confidence in the Patriots and Jets getting their perennial playoff spots, but The Power Rank thinks otherwise.  The Bills are indeed a good team right now but good is not enough in a division that has contained two top ten (and usually top five) teams for the last few years.  This division will get down and dirty where it normally does (in the playoffs) with the teams it normally sends (the Pats and Jets).  Until then, my attention will be elsewhere.

NFL Rankings, Week 7

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Effect of lockout
What does The Power Rank say?
Have good leadership

Through the first six weeks of the season the results are decidedly lopsided.

Some of you faithful of The Power Rank are scratching your heads and thinking “Tom is off his rocker this week, doesn’t he remember that the average of all The Power Rank ratings always equals zero”? Even more of you must think I am insane, as the Power Rank shows that 18 teams have a rating over zero, while only 14 are below that magical mean.

But there is more to The Power Rank than just averages.  To illustrate the lopsidedness of the league so far this season I created the following graph which shows the distribution of NFL teams by their rating (rounded to the nearest integer):

As you can see, the “0” row, which should be at the center of the main bulk of the teams, is actually closer to the high side of the middle of the main pack of teams.  The reason for this are the transcendent outliers, the top three teams:  #1 New England (10.63), #2 Green Bay (10.11), and #3 Baltimore (9.27).  These three teams have been so consistent and solid that the Power Rank shows them as head-and-shoulders above all other competitors.

To be fair, there is a team that is as transcendentally bad as the top three are good (Sorry Temple).  The Rams (#32, -9.68) are just struggling as a franchise even though the recent acquisition of Brandon Lloyd may provide the team with a target for Sam Bradford and the spark they have been missing.  Until that turnaround happens St. Louis is still stuck in their hole far below the rest of the Power Rank field.

After removing these outliers the mean of the remaining 28 teams drops from 0 to -0.76, a fairly significant drop in Power Rank terms.  Only six pairs of teams in the Power Rank are separated by a rating gap of more than 0.76:

#2 Green Bay (10.11) and #3 Baltimore (9.27)

#3 Baltimore (9.27) and #4 Detroit (6.58)

#5 San Francisco and (6.12) and #6 New York Jets (4.08)

#19 Washington (-0.28) and #20 Atlanta (-1.50)

#21 New York Giants (-1.64) and #22 Minnesota (-3.44)

#31 Kansas City (-6.93) and #32 St. Louis (-9.68)

0.76 rating points are significant enough that adding them to #18 Philadelphia (0.24) would move them four steps higher to #14, just ahead of current #14 Chicago (0.98).

To make matters worse, emergent powerhouses Detroit (#4, 6.58) and San Francisco (#5, 6.12) are stranded somewhere in the no-man’s-land between the blob of average teams and the island of Super Bowl favorites.  Personally I think they belong with the majority of teams, but we may have some Lions or Niners faithful in the audience that would beg to differ.  To please those fans, I also calculated the average ratings of only the yellow teams, making the assumption that the Lions and Niners are poised to continue their meteoric rises to join the ranks of the Patriots, Packers, and Ravens.

The average rating of the 26 yellow teams comes out to an unimpressive -1.27, a full half a point lower than the average with Detroit and San Francisco in the group.  That means that the average performance rate of the yellow teams fall somewhere between the Redskins (formerly) Grossman powered team, and the Atlanta Failcons.

A lot of people went in to this season expecting chaos due to the lockout, players not being ready, and teams being in turmoil with new staff unable to get familiar with their athletes.  I think what we are seeing here is a graphic representation of that chaos.  The teams at the very top (New England, Green Bay, and Baltimore) all have had very few roster and organizational changes between this year and last.  Stadium lockouts didn’t prevent Aaron Rodgers from calling a captain’s practice with Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson.  I’d bet my left hand that Ray Lewis was on top of his teammates, making sure they stayed fit and ready to come back and win.

On the other hand teams without strong veteran leadership, teams that made significant roster moves (Eagles), and especially teams that are under new head coaches have been left adrift in this sea of yellow.  One thing is certain.  12 teams are going to be in the playoffs.  It is likely that the cream of the early crop, the teams highlighted in blue and green, will make the cut.  But that will leave seven spots for teams from the yellow blob of mediocrity.

Are the 2-3 Cowboys (#7, 3.86) a playoff team?  Their record would suggest that they are not.  In fact, their record is tied with the #31 Chiefs (-6.93).  And what about the future of the 4-2 Giants (#21, -1.64)?  The Power Rank is not impressed, but they are getting wins.

Keep your eyes open.  The surprises of the 2011 season are just beginning, and truly anything can happen.  Just ask the Bengals and their newly gained draft picks…

NFL Rankings, Week 9

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Parity.  Noun.  A humorous or satirical imitation of a serious piece of literature or writing.

Oh wait…  that’s Parody. 

Parity.  Noun.  Equality, as in amount, status, or character.

A lot of talk about the NFL has focused on the parity of the league, and with the losers winning and winners losing this week, I figured the Power Rank should chime in with its own opinion on the matter. 

While complete parity according to dictionary.com’s definition above is impossible, especially in the eyes of the Power Rank, the ratings are moving in one direction: towards the middle.

In week six I posted a graph that showed the distribution of NFL teams by their rating rounded to the nearest integer (graph is also displayed below).  At the time I was arguing that the league had parity, but within tiers.  There was an elite tier with highly rated teams jockeying for the top, a middle tier that contained more than half the league, and a bottom tier that could only be called a football pit of despair.

My argument was that teams would move within those tiers, but that breaking out would be difficult.  Well, it’s only been three weeks and my predictions still hold but are looking shaky. 

With so many highly ranked teams taking it on the chin in the last couple weeks and no teams left with less than 2 losses, the Power Rank has compressed significantly.  The only exception to this is the hopeless outliers from Carolina. 

In spite of this obvious compression, something else is still going on.  I’ve given teams the same color in the week nine graph that they had in the week six graph, and the visible result in that little movement has occurred from the previous tier system.  The top teams are still at the top, and the bottom teams are still on the bottom.

There are a couple of notable exceptions to this.  Green Bay has moved into the top tier by shutting out the Jets and absolutely drubbing the Cowboys.  To be fair though, the Packers were already on the higher side of that middle tier.  On the other end Seattle has fallen from the middle to join the lower ranks, but has only dropped two ranks from #25 to #27. 

Two other teams have made more significant moves.  Oakland stands out like a sore thumb, an island of red in a sea of yellow.  They have moved to #17 in week nine from #29 in week six.  

The Raiders’ rise is only matched by the fall of the Cowboys, which has been so horrific and complete that it seems like it could have been a Greek tragedy.  They were only at #20 in week six, but have since fallen to #31 in week nine. 

Other than those teams, the rest of the league has stayed in their respective groups.  So yes, the playing field is becoming more even and the gap between the good and the bad has narrowed…  the ugly Panthers not withstanding.  What this comparison does show is that while the lines between the tiers are blurring they still do exist.  

Is that parity?  I say no.  It’s true that there are no teams dominating the league, but some are very clearly better (or worse) than others by a signifcant margin.   

1. Pittsburgh, 6-2, 6.27
2. Baltimore, 6-2, 5.78
3. New York Jets, 6-2, 5.44
4. Indianapolis, 5-3, 5.35
5. Green Bay, 6-3, 4.96
6. Tennessee, 5-3, 4.83
7. New England, 6-2, 3.30
8. Atlanta, 6-2, 2.80
9. Kansas City, 5-3, 2.47
10. San Diego, 4-5, 2.21
11. New Orleans, 6-3, 1.85
12. New York Giants, 6-2, 1.82
13. Philadelphia, 5-3, 1.75
14. Cleveland, 3-5, 1.13
15. Detroit, 2-6, 0.72
16. Miami, 4-4, 0.39
17. Oakland, 5-4, -0.05
18. Minnesota, 3-5, -0.43
19. Washington, 4-4, -0.45
20. Houston, 4-4, -0.49
21. Chicago, 5-3, -0.97
22. St. Louis, 4-4, -1.21
23. Cincinnati, 2-6, -1.72
24. Denver, 2-6, -2.70
25. Tampa Bay, 5-3, -3.48
26. San Francisco, 2-6, -3.80
27. Seattle, 4-4, -4.16
28. Arizona, 3-5, -4.47
29. Jacksonville, 4-4, -4.57
30. Buffalo, 0-8, -4.94
31. Dallas, 1-7, -5.43
32. Carolina, 1-7, -12.23

NFL Preview

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After months of drama, it’s time to forget Roethlisberger’s indiscretions, Favre’s indecision, and Al Davis’ incompetence and start the NFL season. Here is the Power Rank’s 2010 NFL preview.

AFC East.

If you’re like me you’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knocks and head coach Rex Ryan has intimidated you into believing that his Jets are going to repeat their playoff run. Darrelle Revis (CB, 24) has a contract, Ladanian Tomlinson (RB, 21) is in town, and Mark Sanchez (QB, 6) has a season of experience under his belt. Add this to an underrated receiving corps and you’ll be hearing lots of “J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!” cheers this winter.

The division doesn’t stop in New York though. Randy Moss (WR, 81) and Tom Brady (QB, 12) are getting older but they’re still a major threat to any defense and head coach Bill Belichick can be expected to field a competitive team as he always does, even if they won’t be as dominant as they have been in the past.

The Miami Dolphins and their wildcat offensive scheme can be expected to make a splash again this year with the addition of receiving phenom (and headcase) Brandon Marshall (WR, 19). It will be interesting to see how Ronnie Brown (RB, 23) and Ricky Williams (RB, 34) will perform when teams can’t stack the box against them and their dominant offensive tackle Jake Long (T, 77).

The Bills have done little to improve, and their record will show it this year.

AFC North.

It’s the Raven’s year. Ray Rice (RB, 27) is looking to improve on a great season and Joe Flacco (QB, 5) is expected to break out with new targets like Anquan Boldin (WR, 81) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (WR). With a rock solid Greg Mattison coached defense led by Ray Lewis (MLB, 52) to keep opponents at bay, the Ravens are looking to play a game in February this year.

The Steelers and the Bengals will be looking to spoil the Raven’s Superbowl dreams with teams loaded with talent. The Bengals offense of Carson Palmer (QB, 5), Terrell Owens (WR, 81), and Chad Ochocinco (WR, 85), reads like an All-Star program… from the 2004 season. If they can collectively shake off the dust they will be a killer trio, but don’t expect this scenario to be likely. Pittsburgh enters the season without Big Ben (QB, 7) and in disarray offensively. But you can’t count out a Pittsburgh defense that’s 2 seasons removed from Superbowl glory. Expect some late season heroics that will see the men in black in the hunt for the postseason.

The Browns have been making moves to improve their team, but with Montario Hardesty (RB, 31) shredding his ACL they seem to be the wrong moves. At least they got rid of Brady Quinn though, right?

AFC South.

The Colts haven’t gone anywhere. Peyton Manning (QB, 18) will continue to be the best in the NFL (and possibly history) and he’s got all of the same targets that he had last year, plus Anthony Gonzalez (WR, 11). The really bad news for Colts haters: Bob Sanders (SS, 21) is back and is looking good in the defensive backfield.

Don’t expect to see anyone else take this division, but don’t be surprised if there’s at least one and maybe even two wildcards coming from the South. The Texans are a lot of analyst’s breakout pick this year, but they have been for the last few years running. Matt Schaub (QB,8) has the tools on the outside led by Andre Johnson (WR, 80), but injuries and running back controversy may continue to plague this team.

The Titans return with Chris Johnson (RB, 28) hoping to repeat and improve on his 2000 yard season, but that may prove difficult with the loss of blocker Kevin Mawae (C). Vince Young (QB, 10) rounds out the offensive attack that will keep the Titans competitive with any team in the NFL.

The Jaguars’ explosive back Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, 32) is expected to start the season healthy, but preseason injuries leave doubts about his effectiveness this year. With little passing attack and a lackluster defense, expect the Jags to stay in limbo this year.

AFC West.

Yet again, it’s going to be all Chargers this year in the AFC West. Phillip Rivers (QB, 17) will continue to throw touchdowns with or without Vincent Jackson (WR, 83), and running back Ryan Matthews (RB, 24) from Fresno State seems to be everyone’s pick for Rookie of the Year. Don’t forget the explosive and versatile Darren Sproles (RB, 43) and the solid defense that will help the Chargers slide into what may be the easiest playoff slot in the NFL this season.

Let’s look at the other quarterbacks in this divison: Cassel (KC), Orton/Tebow/Quinn (DEN), and Jason Campbell (OAK). Some people are big on Jason Campbell (QB,8) to finally breakout, others think Matt Cassel (QB, 7) will regain his Patriot glory… don’t buy it. These guys are mediocre at best and the only target worth mentioning on all three teams is Dwayne Bowe (WR, 82) of Kansas City. Don’t expect to see any of these teams in January this year. If you’re like me, you’re just hoping that rookie Tim Tebow (QB, 15) will get a chance to skipper the Broncos and show what his athleticism and poor mechanics can do.

NFC East.

The best division in the NFL is just too close to call. The Cowboys bring back Tony Romo (QB, 9), a stacked backfield, a nasty defense, and a possible future star in Dez Bryant (WR, 88). The Eagles return with their signature defensive power and a very young but very talented offense led by Kevin Kolb (QB, 4), DeSean Jackson (WR, 10), Jeremy Maclin (WR, 18), and Brent Celek (TE, 87). The Giants didn’t get the better of the Manning brothers but Eli (QB, 10) is a solid performer with good targets in Steve Smith (WR, 12) and Hakeem Nicks (WR, 88), and the third strong defense in the division.

The only team the won’t be on top of this royal rumble is Washington. The Redskins’ strategy of overspending on aging stars will continue to haunt them as Donovan McNabb (QB, 5) and Clinton Portis (RB, 26) will not live up to their 2004 stat lines, which will only be a shock to the Washington front office.

NFC North.

As a Packer fan, it pains me to say the you can expect to see more purple this January. Brett Favre (QB, 4) is back for one reason, and that is to win a Superbowl. The hall of famer is backed by the single most dominant player in the game, Adrian Peterson (RB, 28), and pass rushing media darling Jared Allen (DE, 69) (for more on Allen, check out this week’s Fine Line).

The Packers will be one of the most dangerous teams on the gridiron this year. Aaron Rodgers (QB, 12) is enjoying a statistically unprecedented start to his career with a bevy of targets that can score almost at will. Veteran slant receiver Donald Driver (WR, 80) and burner Greg Jennings (WR, 85) are joined by the emerging talent of Jermichael Finley (TE, 88), James Jones (WR, 89), and Jordy Nelson (WR, 87). Charles Woodson (CB, 21) and Clay Matthews (OLB, 52) lead the defense with the most takeaways in the league, but the Green Bay defense also has some big holes that make them more porous than consistent, which will cost them over the season.

The Bears welcome new offensive coordinator Mike Martz who will have little to work with this year. Calling Jay Cutler (QB, 6) a gunslinger won’t make him Brett Favre (MIN), and even though Matt Forte (RB, 22) is poised for comeback year it won’t be enough to keep this offense from stalling on a weekly basis.

The Lions are likely to continue to be the worst team in the NFL, but at least they are rebuilding aggressively with Matthew Stafford (QB, 9), Calvin “Megatron” Johnson (WR, 81), and Jahvid Best (RB, 44). Look for this squad to make waves in my 2013 season preview.

NFC South.

The reigning Superbowl champs won’t have the magic of 2009, but the Saints will still be a force this year. Drew Brees (QB, 9) and his targets Marques Colston (WR, 12), Jeremy Shockey (TE, 88), and emerging Robert Meachem (WR, 17) will perform on a weekly basis in one of the most potent offenses in the league. The defense was a surprise last year and won’t perform quite as well as last year, but the noise of the awakened “Who dat” nation will support them at home as a solid 12th man.

The Falcons whole team hit a sophomore slump last year as Matt Ryan (QB, 2), Michael Turner (RB, 33), and Roddy White (WR, 84) all failed to live up to high expectations as the team was plagued with injuries and misfortune. Expect this year to go by more smoothly, for Turner to return to dominance, and the Falcons to become competitive again.

The Panthers and Buccaneers have always been known for solid defenses but their lackluster offensive traditions will hold them back again this year. Carolina wisely dumped Jake Delhomme, but haven’t filled the spot with experience, and that will cost them. Tampa Bay also has quarterback woes even though Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE, 82) is sure to be one of the best targets in the league.

NFC West.

Someone has to get into the playoffs by default from this division, and it’s a shame.

The 49ers will most likely win out in this division with a nasty defense led by Patrick Willis (MLB, 52) and under the tutelage of head coach Mike Singletary. Their offense will continue to pound the ball on with Frank Gore (RB, 21) and the new addition of veteran running back Brian Westbrook the ground attack may be even more potent that usual. Vernon Davis (TE, 85) will snag a few touchdowns from Alex Smith (QB, 11) but don’t expect the passing attack to be featured in San Francisco this year.

The Cardinals still have Larry Fitzgerald (WR, 11) and Steve Breaston (WR, 15), but they’ve lost Anquan Boldin (WR) and Kurt Warner (QB), and have recently cut Matt Leinart (QB). For a team that lives and dies with their air attack, you can expect this team to die many painful deaths on the field this year.

Pete Carroll seems to be cleaning house in Seattle this year, cutting TJ Houshmanzadeh (WR) and picking up 6 million dollars of his salary while the Ravens enjoy his talent. Veteran running back Julius Jones is also unemployed this fall. The message from Seattle: we’re rebuilding, don’t expect us to win this year.

St. Louis seems to have picked a gem in Sam Bradford (QB,8) who’s looked sharp leading the offense this preseason, but the Rams’ problems go beyond what one rookie quarterback can fix. Expect Bradford and Steven Jackson (RB, 39) to pull out a couple wins this year but not a whole lot more than that.