Carolina Panthers

Predictions for the NFL Wildcard Playoffs, 2014

The NFL Playoffs have arrived. Remember, there are favorites to win the Super Bowl, but no team has great odds to win three or four games in a row against the NFL’s best teams.

That makes picking Super Bowl winners very difficult. It depends on both good play and luck. Nonetheless, that’s what makes the playoffs great: anyone can win.

Last year featured the consensus two best teams in the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen often.

Finding edges in the playoffs is much more difficult than the regular season. There will be many more bets coming in and the public generally knows the worth of each team at this point. Valuing overlooked aspects like home field advantage and defense is important.

Let’s try to figure out who wins this week.

Cardinals @ Panthers

Over the last two seasons, the Arizona Cardinals have been the unluckiest team in the NFL.

Last year, the Cardinals won ten games but missed the postseason. This year, Arizona won eleven games but lost their first and second string quarterbacks to injury.

Now they travel to play a 7-8-1 Carolina team. And unfortunately for Cardinals fans, that 7-8-1 team is much better than them right now.

Ryan Lindley is the go-to quarterback for the Cardinals. He has nine career games, a 50% completion rate, and just threw his first touchdown pass last week.

Lindley will go up against a now healthy and very fast Carolina defense. The Panthers have given up more than 20 points in just one of their last six games and are beginning to look like the defense we saw last year.

The Carolina offense, on the other hand, hasn’t been great. Sure, they scored 34 points as a team last week but that was aided by two defensive touchdowns and incredible field position most of the game. Relying upon some fortunate bounces isn’t a sustainable way to win games.

Cam Newton will go up against a Cardinals defense that is a bit overrated. Early in the season, the Cardinals repeatedly found themselves in close games in which late turnovers and defensive touchdowns aided some victories.

In actuality, they’ve produced the 27th best sack rate and 21st best pass defense by yards per attempt adjusted for schedule.

Without being able to pressure Cam Newton, the Cardinals will find themselves in a bad situation. Newton will be able to exploit their defense on the ground and through the air.

The books have the line at Panthers -4.5. Considering they are playing at home, this line suggests the Panthers would be very small favorites on a neutral field.

The public will be largely backing the Panthers which should move this line towards the price of a touchdown. If you like the Panthers as much as I do this week, you may want to get them early or find another game to tease the line down with them.

I like to bet on defense and home field advantage. Panthers win big.

Ravens @ Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers come into the playoffs flying high. They’ve won their last four games by an average of 11.5 points against solid competition.

The Ravens have won three of four but haven’t played great in the last three games since cruising past the Dolphins. Baltimore slipped by the Jaguars, lost to the Texans who brought Case Keenum off the street, and pulled out a close one against the Browns led by Connor Shaw last week.

The Ravens defense has been about what one would expect in those games; however, the offense has been abysmal.

It all starts with QB Joe Flacco. This season, his 62% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt reminds you of quarterbacks named Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick.

The match up couldn’t be better for Flacco and the Ravens offense this week, though. Pittsburgh rates as the third worst pass defense in the NFL, just beating out Atlanta and Chicago.

That not-so Steel Curtain defense ranks 25th in sack rate and 30th in passing yards per attempt against. Look for Flacco, who hasn’t been great in road games over his career, to have some success.

I do believe the Ravens best chance of advancing through the Wildcard round was to draw the Steelers. That doesn’t mean I’d pick them to win this game.

The Steelers offense has been incredible. Pittsburgh has the fourth best pass offense, only trailing Denver, Green Bay, and Indianapolis.

Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell are as good of a trio that you will find in the NFL. Bell did hyperextend his knee late in Week 17 and is likely a coin flip to play this week. I still believe they have success against an average Ravens defense with a mixture of Josh Harris and Dri Archer in the backfield.

The opening line favors the Steelers by more than a field goal. The Power Rank’s ensemble predictions favors the Steelers by a point. I’ll agree and back the Steelers to win with home field advantage. This game is lined appropriately given that the Ravens offense and Joe Flacco continue to struggle this season.

Bengals @ Colts

I am really stuck coming up with an opinion for this game. If it weren’t the playoffs, I’d pass on this one entirely. I do believe the Bengals are a little better than most people think. However, they have a large match up problem this week.

The Bengals front seven will not be able to stop Andrew Luck. In the few games that the Colts offense has struggled, it’s been mostly due to pressure on Luck where he’s become turnover-happy.

The Bengals have the second worst pass rush in the NFL. That’s a large mismatch since Luck takes sacks at the fifth best rate in the NFL.

Luck should be able to extend plays with his legs and inside the pocket while allowing the athleticism of T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Colby Fleener to really shine. Cincinnati’s secondary has been impressive, recently blasting Peyton Manning into mediocrity, but stopping Luck on the indoor turf in Indy is a different story.

The Bengals did take the Steelers down to the wire last week. The ten point difference doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Bengals were already inside of field goal range while down three with around three minutes left in the game before A.J. Green fumbled and cost his a team a shot to win the game.

In the process, Green was injured on the play and is questionable for Sunday’s contest. Green may be the best offensive player and threat for the Bengals. His potential absence or limited play should not be taken lightly.

There still is a slight misconception that the Colts defense isn’t very good. They represent the tenth best secondary and eighth best sack rate. According to The Power Rank, they rate overall at tenth, right between the Lions and Patriots.

Nearly every statistical aspect of this game tells me the Colts win easy. While the Colts have struggled recently, I think they play their best at home this weekend in their most important contest of the season. This agrees with the ensemble prediction of Colts by 4.8.

Lions @ Cowboys

As I’ve stated before, the Cowboys are the most publicly-driven point spread each week. I was amazed when I saw a Cowboys -7.5 pop up Monday morning. A bottom five defense is going up against an incredibly talented offense and is laying more than a touchdown in the books.

If we evaluate this game at an offense versus defense standpoint, I think it’s safe to say the Lions offense is a better match up for the Cowboys defense than the Cowboys offense against the Lions defense.

Detroit’s offense certainly hasn’t lived up to its talent level, but they’ve shown some flashes of what one would expect. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Reggie Bush could give this Cowboys questionable defense some nightmares this week.

Detroit’s passing offense ranks right about average; however, they’ve spent a large portion of the season without their most important offensive player, Calvin Johnson. Either Orlando Scandrick or Brandon Carr will cover Johnson this week, while the other gets Golden Tate.

Both Scandrick and Carr have played better than expected this season but they still have their hands full dealing with all that speed in a dome and on turf.

Stafford has struggled at times dealing with pressure and their front line hasn’t protected him at a great rate. However, the Cowboys don’t get to quarterbacks that often (4.25% sack rate).

Not to mention, the Cowboys haven’t historically played great at home. Even with a substantial home field advantage, this game should be much closer than anticipated.

We all know how good the Cowboys offense has been this year. Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant are as good as they come in the skill department. They will give any defense problems.

The Lions do boast the best run-stopping defense in the NFL and a top ten secondary. If the Lions secondary can find a way to stop Dez Bryant from catching multiple touchdowns this week and force Tony Romo to use Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley, they’ll have a great chance to win this game.

They will be without Ndamukong Suh who was suspended for stepping on Aaron Rodgers’ injured calf. Suh’s absence has a huge effect as he may be the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL. [Editor’s note: for some reason, the NFL has cleared Suh to play in this game.]

I am not suggesting the Cowboys are much worse than the Lions. I still think they win this game with superior offensive abilities.

This entire Cowboys team has been better than expected. However, the fact that the largest line of the week by a wide margin is given to the team with relatively no defense and no great home field advantage is a shock.

I expect the Cowboys to pull this one out, and the ensemble predictions agree (Dallas by 2.3). Take the points.

Enjoy the playoffs, all. It’s the best time of the year and it doesn’t last long. May the luckiest team win!

Frank Brank founded cheapseatanalytics.com, a site devoted to analytical sports information and betting systems. He majors in baseball but also covers the NFL and NHL. You can follow him on Twitter @realFrankBrank.

Predictions for week 17 of the NFL, 2014

By Frank Brank Leave a Comment

Week 17 of the NFL is one of, if not the hardest, week to predict outcomes of football games. You must consider which teams will play full out and which will sit starters or play cautiously. To avoid these situations, let’s focus on important games to both teams.

The analysis below is based on calculations available to members of The Power Rank. The offense and defense rankings for passing consider yards per attempt and adjusts for strength of schedule, since the NFC South is just that bad.

The team rankings shown in the visual aggregate these offense and defense rankings with calculations based on margin of victory. The predictions come from these ensemble rankings and add a constant factor for home field.

Panthers @ Falcons

Sadly, either the 22nd or 28th best team by The Power Rank will win the NFC South and host a playoff game.

When evaluating football games, a large portion of the analysis and focus should depend upon the offensive and defensive match ups for each team. I believe the Panthers have a decent advantage on Sunday.

The Falcons have the worst pass defense in the NFL. They also don’t pressure the quarterback, ranking 31st in sack rate.

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers don’t throw the ball particularly well but I don’t foresee much of an issue against this defense.

The Panthers offensive weakness is pass protection, as they rank 22nd in sack rate allowed despite having an extremely athletic, mobile quarterback in Cam Newton. However, the Falcons front can’t get to anyone, so Newton will have success running and throwing the ball.

Contrary to popular belief, the Falcons have been just slightly above average on offense. They rank just one half of a yard ahead of league average in adjusted yards per pass attempt.

Similarly, the Panthers pass defense has been just slightly above average this season. As they’ve gotten healthier and as the season has worn on, they’ve gotten better, allowing more than 20 points in one of the last five games.

The ensemble predictions suggests a one point win for the Falcons. The public has backed the Falcons at a three to one rate early, moving the line from Falcons by three to Falcons by four already.

I’d gladly take the Panthers north of three points with the money line having some value as well.

Cowboys @ Redskins

Now that the Cowboys have clinched a home playoff game, this game will be a matter of seeding in the upcoming weeks.

Like I wrote last week, the Cowboys are the most hot and cold team in the eyes of the public. If they are winning, they’re highly respected. If they are struggling, they get no public backing.

Looking back on it, it’s somewhat comical that the Cowboys were four to five point underdogs at Tennessee in Week 2.

I also wrote last week about the one fatal flaw in Robert Griffin’s struggles and how he could exploit the Eagles poor secondary with a little bit of time in the backfield. As the Cowboys have generated very little sacks on defense (4.6% sack rate), Griffin should be able to find similar success against a bottom five secondary.

There’s also a chance the Cowboys play it a little safe in this game. Sure, seeding is important in the playoffs, but keeping everyone healthy could be equally important for an offense that relies heavily on their offensive line and just a few skill position players.

There’s little chance the Redskins have given up at this point. Robert Griffin is playing for a starting job next year, whether it’s with the Redskins or another team, and DeSean Jackson definitely hasn’t taken a play off.

This match up is much closer than one would expect as both teams do not play defense. The six and a half point line is too many points to lay for the slightly better defense at home. If you move this game to Dallas, this line would suggest the Cowboys to be nearly two touchdown favorites.

That’s too many points to lay for a cautious team with a horrendous secondary. The Skins have another chance to win this week. The numbers agree, giving the Cowboys an edge of only 1.4 points.

Bengals @ Steelers

The game of the week is Cincinnati traveling into Pittsburgh for the AFC North Championship and the opportunity to host a playoff game. Considering how well both of these teams have played in recent years at home, this game should be of high importance to each team.

Most of the public, and the books, will more than likely remember the 21-point win by Pittsburgh in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. However, the full season statistics suggest the Bengals have better match up with the Steelers this week.

The Steelers have the 4th best pass offense while the Bengals feature the 7th ranked pass defense, which is surprising. It’s safe to expect the Bengals to hold the Steelers offense under 42 points this time around.

The mismatch comes on the other side of the ball. The Bengals passing game hasn’t performed as well as one might expect from their talent. But the Steelers pass defense is bad (30th) and has been exploited over the top.

The Steelers have won games with big plays on offense. It’ll be a little harder this week against a good, underrated Bengals defense.

A standard three points to the home team gives the Steelers a slight edge. The Power Rank says Steelers by a point. Flip a coin, the last possession determines the outcome in the game of the week.

Thanks for reading. We’ll cover all of the games next week as the playoffs get underway.

Additonal Leans:

Jaguars +10, Bills +10.5, Rams +13

NFL Rankings, Week 5

By Tom Kellogg 2 Comments

Okay New England, we get it. You’re good at football. And St. Louis, it is likely that you’re already thinking more about the race to acquire Andrew Luck than the race to make the playoffs. But today I’m not interested in the highs and lows of The Power Rank, I’m taking a shot at it’s sweet, juicy center.

To get a look at what truly constitutes the center of the Power Rank grouping, I used a mathematical formula for Standard Deviation, something that defines the variation from the mean (or average) in a data set. If you’re enough of a nerd to not stick your tongue out at that definition and want to know more, you can look at Wikipedia’s explanation.

If you’re like me and most math classes made you go crossed-eyed and start drooling on yourself, all you really have to understand is that the bulk of a group (about 68%) falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean on either side, and that the bulk of the remainder (about 27%, for a total of 95% of the whole) falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

In other words, teams whose rating falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean (always 0.0 for the Power Rank) are all horribly mediocre. Ok, that’s my inner pessimist coming out. A more optimistic view for Eagles and Falcons fans might be to say that they are “on the bubble” when it comes to elite NFL teams (or horrible NFL teams, but we won’t dwell on that). On the other hand, teams that exceed 2 standard deviations of distance from the mean are truly in a class of their own, either high class or low class depending on which side of the curve they are on.

That’s about as much explaining as I can do, although further questions about the mechanics of this process can be emailed to Ed, who will no doubt be able to give you a thorough explanation of the math that goes into this process. For my part, I just plug numbers into a free online calculation program and analyze the output. Ah… sweet, sweet technology.

On to football.

The standard deviation in this week’s power rank is 5.49. That means that the bulk of teams will fall between 5.49 and -5.49, almost all teams will fall between 10.98 and -10.98, and teams beyond those ratings are truly special.

Congratulations to the Patriots (#1, 15.79) and the Packers (#2, 11.31) for pushing the limits and existing beyond the norm. Perhaps even more congratulations are deserved by St. Louis (#32, -9.89) for not exceeding the norm…

Very few teams fall between the first and second standard deviations. On the high side only Baltimore, Detroit, and New Orleans (by a hair) make the grade as especially good teams, whereas on the low end Denver, Arizona, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, and St. Louis all currently qualify as truly not very good teams.

That leaves the other 21 teams in the true statistical middle of the road. Being in the middle isn’t all that bad, as you are supposedly as close to the top as you are to the bottom. This is great news for 2010’s weekly bottom dweller Carolina, who finds themselves just within the boundaries of that first standard deviation, but not great news for teams hoping to return strong and make another playoff run like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, or Philadelphia. Most importantly for these middling teams, their current ratings are not a death warrant for the season, they have no cause for alarm and no need whatsoever to join in the chase for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

A few things to consider for these middle teams:

1. The current standard deviation is almost 1 point bigger than it was at the end of last year when it ended up at 4.59.

2. At the end of last season The Power Rank was a little more balanced with one team above 2 standard deviations (New England) and one team below (Carolina). Currently the two teams exceeding 2 standard deviations from the mean are both on the high side. Most likely, either New England or Green Bay will fall back into the sweet center during the season.

3. When one (or both) of the juggernauts fall they will bring that standard deviation down with them. This will cut some teams out of of the running for average status (look out Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Carolina!) but on the upside a few teams may be thrust into greatness without needing to earn it (it may finally be the year for Houston or San Diego to go all the way).

4. When the standard deviation shrinks a couple struggling teams may also become hopeless. But come on, we are only one quarter of the way through the season! Now is the time for Vikings fans to Ponder over whether or not they can finish out 12-4, Miami fans to Marshall their courage, and Colts fans to… oh, who am I kidding? Without Manning they have lost their identity… they should focus on battling St. Louis and Kansas City in the race for the #1 draft pick in 2012.

NFL Rankings, Week 13

By Tom Kellogg Leave a Comment

Anyone who looks at rankings certainly starts at one place: the top. This week the Power Rank has yet another #1 ranked team, the New England Patriots. Anyone who saw their incredible 45-3 Monday night drubbing of the previously #1 New York Jets should have known this ascension was coming. Right now the Patriots are as hot as Tom Brady in a pair of Uggs:

Perhaps what’s even more impressive is how far the Jets fell in The Power Rank due to this loss. They fell from a #2 spot with a rating of 5.93 to #11 and a rating of 2.21. In other words, this loss told the Power Rank’s algorithm the same thing it told NFL analysts – truly good teams may lose, but they do not get blown out. The Jets, and especially Mark Sanchez (17/33 for 164yds, 0 TD, 3 INT) , have been exposed and The Power Rank is reflecting just how much they got exposed without considering the hype or emotion surrounding this defeat.

AFC East matters aside, another interesting phenomenon has struck The Power Rank this week. All year, the AFC has dominated The Power Rank. Until three weeks ago when the Packers started their two week reign in the #1 spot, that realty had been the sole possession of AFC teams. For most of the season The Power Rank’s top ten has been dominated by AFC teams. Earlier in the season the only two NFC teams to crack the top ten were Green Bay and Atlanta, and then just barely.

NFC fans, redemption is close at hand.

If Green Bay’s rise to the #1 spot in week 11 was an indicator that the NFC was getting better, the top ten of week 13 has got to be the NFC’s coming out party. The top ten is now an even 5-5 split between NFC and AFC teams. The Packers (#2), Falcons (#5), Eagles (#6), Bears (#7) and Saints (#10) are leading the charge to restore dignity to the conference.

This rise is in spite of the anchor that is the NFC West, a divison that owns three of the bottom four spots in the Power Rank, and as of right now has no winning teams since the Rams and Seahawks are both at 6-6. To get a feeling of the impact that a division like the NFC West has on a conference, look at what happened to Green Bay this week.

It’s no surprise that Green Bay was surpassed by New England this week in the rankings, but it is curious that Green Bay’s rating dropped even though they beat San Francisco 34-16 last Sunday. While that appears to be a solid victory, the Niners were ranked so low (#29, -3.81) that the Packers rating dropped 0.27 after the victory.

Atlanta and their impressive 10-2 record is a team to watch in the NFC. They have been highly ranked all year but have had trouble rising in the ranks to an elite position. This week’s #5 spot is as close as they’ve come to the top. The reason Atlanta has a ceiling is that they have been dominant at home but have failed to beat a formidable opponent on the road. Both of their losses have been on the road at Pittsburgh (#3) and Philadelphia (#6). Their most impressive road win was a 27-24 nail biter at New Orleans when the Saints were still in their Super Bowl hangover.

Atlanta has been both the benefactor and victim of an overall weak schedule, which only gets weaker as the season comes to a close. Their final four games put them at Carolina (#32) and at Seattle (#30) before coming home to finish out against New Orleans (#10) and then Carolina again. Even if the Falcons drop a home game to the Saints, which is unlikely, they will cruise into the playoffs with a 13-3 record that will most likely be the best in the NFC.

Will homefield advantage carry the Falcons through to the Super Bowl? They’ve been undefeated at home all season including wins against Green Bay (#2) and Baltimore (#4), but those are also their only two truly impressive victories. In addition, those games were both one score games as they beat the Ravens by five and the Packers by only three.

Expect the Falcons to finish with the best record in the NFC and get the number one seed in the playoffs, but also expect The Power Rank to reflect their weak schedule and be a better predictor of their postseason success.

1. New England, 10-2, 8.24
2. Green Bay, 8-4, 6.55
3. Pittsburgh, 9-3, 5.47
4. Baltimore, 8-4, 4.80
5. Atlanta, 10-2, 4.54
6. Philadelphia, 8-4, 4.19
7. Chicago, 9-3, 2.89
8. Indianapolis, 6-6, 2.72
9. San Diego, 6-6, 2.46
10. New Orleans, 9-3, 2.33
11. New York Jets, 9-3, 2.21
12. Cleveland, 5-7, 1.51
13. Tennessee, 5-7, 1.49
14. Kansas City, 8-4, 1.19
15. New York Giants, 8-4, 0.84
16. Miami, 6-6, 0.70
17. Houston, 5-7, -0.76
18. Oakland, 6-6, -1.16
19. Dallas, 4-8, -1.26
20. Detroit, 2-10, -1.73
21. Tampa Bay, 7-5, -1.83
22. Minnesota, 5-7, -2.00
23. St. Louis, 6-6, -2.04
24. Jacksonville, 7-5, -2.09
25. Washington, 5-7, -2.63
26. Denver, 3-9, -2.92
27. Cincinnati, 2-10, -3.00
28. Buffalo, 2-10, -3.24
29. San Francisco, 4-8, -3.96
30. Seattle, 6-6, -4.17
31. Arizona, 3-9, -8.26
32. Carolina, 1-11, -11.05

NFL Rankings, Week 9

By Tom Kellogg 2 Comments

Parity. Noun. A humorous or satirical imitation of a serious piece of literature or writing.

Oh wait… that’s Parody.

Parity. Noun. Equality, as in amount, status, or character.

A lot of talk about the NFL has focused on the parity of the league, and with the losers winning and winners losing this week, I figured the Power Rank should chime in with its own opinion on the matter.

While complete parity according to dictionary.com’s definition above is impossible, especially in the eyes of the Power Rank, the ratings are moving in one direction: towards the middle.

In week six I posted a graph that showed the distribution of NFL teams by their rating rounded to the nearest integer (graph is also displayed below). At the time I was arguing that the league had parity, but within tiers. There was an elite tier with highly rated teams jockeying for the top, a middle tier that contained more than half the league, and a bottom tier that could only be called a football pit of despair.

My argument was that teams would move within those tiers, but that breaking out would be difficult. Well, it’s only been three weeks and my predictions still hold but are looking shaky.

With so many highly ranked teams taking it on the chin in the last couple weeks and no teams left with less than 2 losses, the Power Rank has compressed significantly. The only exception to this is the hopeless outliers from Carolina.

In spite of this obvious compression, something else is still going on. I’ve given teams the same color in the week nine graph that they had in the week six graph, and the visible result in that little movement has occurred from the previous tier system. The top teams are still at the top, and the bottom teams are still on the bottom.

There are a couple of notable exceptions to this. Green Bay has moved into the top tier by shutting out the Jets and absolutely drubbing the Cowboys. To be fair though, the Packers were already on the higher side of that middle tier. On the other end Seattle has fallen from the middle to join the lower ranks, but has only dropped two ranks from #25 to #27.

Two other teams have made more significant moves. Oakland stands out like a sore thumb, an island of red in a sea of yellow. They have moved to #17 in week nine from #29 in week six.

The Raiders’ rise is only matched by the fall of the Cowboys, which has been so horrific and complete that it seems like it could have been a Greek tragedy. They were only at #20 in week six, but have since fallen to #31 in week nine.

Other than those teams, the rest of the league has stayed in their respective groups. So yes, the playing field is becoming more even and the gap between the good and the bad has narrowed… the ugly Panthers not withstanding. What this comparison does show is that while the lines between the tiers are blurring they still do exist.

Is that parity? I say no. It’s true that there are no teams dominating the league, but some are very clearly better (or worse) than others by a signifcant margin.

1. Pittsburgh, 6-2, 6.27

2. Baltimore, 6-2, 5.78

3. New York Jets, 6-2, 5.44

4. Indianapolis, 5-3, 5.35

5. Green Bay, 6-3, 4.96

6. Tennessee, 5-3, 4.83

7. New England, 6-2, 3.30

8. Atlanta, 6-2, 2.80

9. Kansas City, 5-3, 2.47

10. San Diego, 4-5, 2.21

11. New Orleans, 6-3, 1.85

12. New York Giants, 6-2, 1.82

13. Philadelphia, 5-3, 1.75

14. Cleveland, 3-5, 1.13

15. Detroit, 2-6, 0.72

16. Miami, 4-4, 0.39

17. Oakland, 5-4, -0.05

18. Minnesota, 3-5, -0.43

19. Washington, 4-4, -0.45

20. Houston, 4-4, -0.49

21. Chicago, 5-3, -0.97

22. St. Louis, 4-4, -1.21

23. Cincinnati, 2-6, -1.72

24. Denver, 2-6, -2.70

25. Tampa Bay, 5-3, -3.48

26. San Francisco, 2-6, -3.80

27. Seattle, 4-4, -4.16

28. Arizona, 3-5, -4.47

29. Jacksonville, 4-4, -4.57

30. Buffalo, 0-8, -4.94

31. Dallas, 1-7, -5.43

32. Carolina, 1-7, -12.23

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