Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore by 2.5 at home
Green Bay will beat Atlanta by 0.0 on the road
Chicago will beat Seattle by 9.9 at home
New England will beat New York Jets by 9.7 at home
The predictions were 4 of 4 against the line for Wild Card Weekend. The lines were taken from USA Today on Friday night.
Anyone who looks at rankings certainly starts at one place: the top. This week the Power Rank has yet another #1 ranked team, the New England Patriots. Anyone who saw their incredible 45-3 Monday night drubbing of the previously #1 New York Jets should have known this ascension was coming. Right now the Patriots are as hot as Tom Brady in a pair of Uggs:
Perhaps what’s even more impressive is how far the Jets fell in The Power Rank due to this loss. They fell from a #2 spot with a rating of 5.93 to #11 and a rating of 2.21. In other words, this loss told the Power Rank’s algorithm the same thing it told NFL analysts – truly good teams may lose, but they do not get blown out. The Jets, and especially Mark Sanchez (17/33 for 164yds, 0 TD, 3 INT) , have been exposed and The Power Rank is reflecting just how much they got exposed without considering the hype or emotion surrounding this defeat.
AFC East matters aside, another interesting phenomenon has struck The Power Rank this week. All year, the AFC has dominated The Power Rank. Until three weeks ago when the Packers started their two week reign in the #1 spot, that realty had been the sole possession of AFC teams. For most of the season The Power Rank’s top ten has been dominated by AFC teams. Earlier in the season the only two NFC teams to crack the top ten were Green Bay and Atlanta, and then just barely.
NFC fans, redemption is close at hand.
If Green Bay’s rise to the #1 spot in week 11 was an indicator that the NFC was getting better, the top ten of week 13 has got to be the NFC’s coming out party. The top ten is now an even 5-5 split between NFC and AFC teams. The Packers (#2), Falcons (#5), Eagles (#6), Bears (#7) and Saints (#10) are leading the charge to restore dignity to the conference.
This rise is in spite of the anchor that is the NFC West, a divison that owns three of the bottom four spots in the Power Rank, and as of right now has no winning teams since the Rams and Seahawks are both at 6-6. To get a feeling of the impact that a division like the NFC West has on a conference, look at what happened to Green Bay this week.
It’s no surprise that Green Bay was surpassed by New England this week in the rankings, but it is curious that Green Bay’s rating dropped even though they beat San Francisco 34-16 last Sunday. While that appears to be a solid victory, the Niners were ranked so low (#29, -3.81) that the Packers rating dropped 0.27 after the victory.
Atlanta and their impressive 10-2 record is a team to watch in the NFC. They have been highly ranked all year but have had trouble rising in the ranks to an elite position. This week’s #5 spot is as close as they’ve come to the top. The reason Atlanta has a ceiling is that they have been dominant at home but have failed to beat a formidable opponent on the road. Both of their losses have been on the road at Pittsburgh (#3) and Philadelphia (#6). Their most impressive road win was a 27-24 nail biter at New Orleans when the Saints were still in their Super Bowl hangover.
Atlanta has been both the benefactor and victim of an overall weak schedule, which only gets weaker as the season comes to a close. Their final four games put them at Carolina (#32) and at Seattle (#30) before coming home to finish out against New Orleans (#10) and then Carolina again. Even if the Falcons drop a home game to the Saints, which is unlikely, they will cruise into the playoffs with a 13-3 record that will most likely be the best in the NFC.
Will homefield advantage carry the Falcons through to the Super Bowl? They’ve been undefeated at home all season including wins against Green Bay (#2) and Baltimore (#4), but those are also their only two truly impressive victories. In addition, those games were both one score games as they beat the Ravens by five and the Packers by only three.
Expect the Falcons to finish with the best record in the NFC and get the number one seed in the playoffs, but also expect The Power Rank to reflect their weak schedule and be a better predictor of their postseason success.
1. New England, 10-2, 8.24
2. Green Bay, 8-4, 6.55
3. Pittsburgh, 9-3, 5.47
4. Baltimore, 8-4, 4.80
5. Atlanta, 10-2, 4.54
6. Philadelphia, 8-4, 4.19
7. Chicago, 9-3, 2.89
8. Indianapolis, 6-6, 2.72
9. San Diego, 6-6, 2.46
10. New Orleans, 9-3, 2.33
11. New York Jets, 9-3, 2.21
12. Cleveland, 5-7, 1.51
13. Tennessee, 5-7, 1.49
14. Kansas City, 8-4, 1.19
15. New York Giants, 8-4, 0.84
16. Miami, 6-6, 0.70
17. Houston, 5-7, -0.76
18. Oakland, 6-6, -1.16
19. Dallas, 4-8, -1.26
20. Detroit, 2-10, -1.73
21. Tampa Bay, 7-5, -1.83
22. Minnesota, 5-7, -2.00
23. St. Louis, 6-6, -2.04
24. Jacksonville, 7-5, -2.09
25. Washington, 5-7, -2.63
26. Denver, 3-9, -2.92
27. Cincinnati, 2-10, -3.00
28. Buffalo, 2-10, -3.24
29. San Francisco, 4-8, -3.96
30. Seattle, 6-6, -4.17
31. Arizona, 3-9, -8.26
32. Carolina, 1-11, -11.05
Those fans that read last week’s post must know how crushed I felt when I saw the #1 ranked Green Bay Packers go to Atlanta and lose. Not only did I fear that they would lose their #1 spot, but I also trembled at the thought of the Packers having to visit Atlanta again in the playoffs.
At least one of those things didn’t come true. Since the Falcons are a highly rated team (#6 this week) the three point loss didn’t cripple the Packers’ position in the Power Rank. In fact, this three point loss was the Packer’s fourth three point loss this season, and it’s the only way they’ve lost in 2010.
Moving past my own NFC interests, the rest of the league is continuing the trends of the season: the top continues to flatten out, the middle continues to see lots of movement but few breakouts, and the bottom continues to be dominated by the NFC West. It’s really sad that three of the bottom four teams are all from that division, but it’s true.
For this week I’ve brought back the checkup graph that I did for week seven that charted how each team had changed in the last few weeks.
The most notable items on the graph are the teams at the top. With the exception of newcomer Green Bay, they have all maintained their places of dominance for the last five weeks with little ranking change. Their ratings, especially those of the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers, have plummeted. I think this is more a function of their schedules getting tougher and these teams having to play each other than it is an indication that they are getting weaker. If there isn’t parity in league there certainly is near the top this year.
The last thing I want to mention this week in Monday night’s game. After this past week’s Arizona (#31) and San Francisco (#29) showdown that couldn’t have held much less interest for the league, this week’s match between New England (#3) and New York (#2) should be one for the ages.
These two division rivals are both playing at the top of their games and will be treating this one like a playoff game. Expect things to get just as heated as the Cortland Finnegan/Andre Johnson brawl. The Power Rank predicts a 0.22 difference in favor of the Jets in a neutral field. I think home field advantage will tip the scales enough for the Pats to come away victors in this one.
The only thing that is fairly certain is that it will be fun to watch in spite of Gruden and Jaws.