How do the markets rank Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers?

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Green Bay has been without QB Aaron Rodgers for 3 games, which lets us get a market estimate of his worth. We’ll do this through my market rankings which take closing point spread and adjust for schedule with my ranking algorithm.

After week 6, the markets rankings had Green Bay 5th in the NFL, with a rating of 3.9 points. This implies Green Bay would beat the average NFL team by about 4 points on a neutral field.

These current NFL market rankings only consider the 3 games for Green Bay since Rodgers got hurt.

1. New England, 8.07
2. Atlanta, 6.33
3. Pittsburgh, 4.71
4. Dallas, 4.49
5. Kansas City, 4.38
6. Seattle, 3.75
7. Philadelphia, 2.53
8. Los Angeles Rams, 1.98
9. Carolina, 1.84
10. New Orleans, 1.72
11. Tennessee, 1.52
12. Oakland, 1.20
13. Denver, 1.11
14. Minnesota, 0.99
15. Cincinnati, 0.01
16. Los Angeles Chargers, -0.05
17. Tampa Bay, -0.06
18. Baltimore, -0.12
19. Jacksonville, -0.19
20. Detroit, -0.67
21. Buffalo, -0.85
22. Washington, -1.04
23. Arizona, -1.32
24. New York Giants, -2.19
25. Houston, -2.22
26. Miami, -2.55
27. Chicago, -3.85
28. New York Jets, -4.55
29. Green Bay, -5.57
30. San Francisco, -6.21
31. Indianapolis, -6.21
32. Cleveland, -7.31

According to the markets, Green Bay has dropped into the bottom 5 of the NFL. They would now be expected to lose by 5.6 to the average NFL team on a neutral field.

While this 9.6 point drop seems too large for me, it does roughly explain the point spread against Baltimore. Giving 2.5 points for home field to Green Bay, these market rankings imply that Baltimore should be about a 3 point road favorite. The markets favor Baltimore by 2.

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Filed Under: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, National Football League

Does Aaron Rodgers draw more pass interference penalties?

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On my recent appearance on Beating the Book, we were discussing Aaron Rodgers and why he wasn’t playing as well. Host Gill Alexander thew out the idea that Rodgers’ performance might not seem as bad if we included drawn pass interference penalties.

I dug into the 2016 play by play data through week 10 to find out. Rodgers has drawn 7 pass interference penalties, just above the team average of 6.

Drawing pass interference penalties doesn’t seem like a skill, as Drew Brees has 3 while Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick have 12 and 11 respectively.

Rodgers does seem to draw pass interference penalties deep down the field. Here are the yardage gains on these penalties: 44, 18, 30, 40, 13, 28, 66. If you include these plays, it would help a pass offense that has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, 26th in the NFL.

Here are the full results for defensive pass interference penalties for all teams during the first 10 weeks of the 2016 season.

  • Arizona, 7.
  • Atlanta, 6.
  • Baltimore, 6.
  • Buffalo, 4.
  • Carolina, 6.
  • Chicago, 4.
  • Cincinnati, 9.
  • Cleveland, 6.
  • Dallas, 2.
  • Denver, 9.
  • Detroit, 9.
  • Green Bay, 7.
  • Houston, 6.
  • Indianapolis, 5.
  • Jacksonville, 12.
  • Kansas City, 1.
  • Los Angeles, 5.
  • Miami, 2.
  • Minnesota, 4.
  • New England, 5.
  • New Orleans, 3.
  • New York Giants, 7.
  • New York Jets, 11.
  • Oakland, 12.
  • Philadelphia, 3.
  • Pittsburgh, 5.
  • San Diego, 8.
  • San Francisco, 3.
  • Seattle, 6.
  • Tampa Bay, 7.
  • Tennessee, 9.
  • Washington, 6.
Filed Under: Aaron Rodgers, Football Analytics, Football Passing Analytics, Green Bay Packers, National Football League