THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Four teams to watch during the tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Gabe Avins won a state high school basketball championship in California. The junior at the University of Pennsylvania has graciously agreed lend his basketball wisdom and analytics prowess to The Power Rank. Moreover, he endorses our interactive bracket with the win probabilities for each team to make each round. This is his first post.

The rank and rating next to each team name is from The Power Rank college basketball rankings. The rating gives a predicted point spread on a neutral court against the average DI team (this year, Charleston Southern).

Ohio State (2nd, 17.8). Don’t let Sunday’s loss to Michigan State fool you—the Buckeyes are legit. In the week leading up to the conference final, Ohio State beat Michigan State in East Lansing (the only team to do so this year) and easily handled tournament bound Purdue and Michigan on a neutral court. Much of their success can be attributed to their stout defense, which ranks first in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency statistic and allows offensive rebounds on only 24.8% of possessions (best among NCAA tournament teams). The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense either, turning the ball over on only 17.4% of possessions (25th best in NCAA) and converting 53.8% of their 2-point field goals (12th best).

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Championship Game.

Wichita State (8th, 14.0). Arguably the most dangerous of the mid-majors, Wichita State sits at 8th in The Power Rank and in the top 20 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. This is a veteran bunch—their top five scorers are all seniors, headlined by do-it-all center Garrett Stutz and the sweet shooting Joe Ragland (50% 3FG). The selection committee did them no favors, however, putting them in the same half of the bracket as both Kentucky and Indiana. Look for the Shockers to get past Indiana and play Kentucky tough.

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

Murray State (22nd, 11.6). The Racers probably have a legitimate gripe with the selection committee after receiving a #6 seed despite being the only team in the field with one loss. Isaiah Canaan is as dangerous as they come at the point guard position, leading an offense that ranks 9th in the NCAA in effective FG% and 5th in 3FG%. If they get by Colorado State, a third round game with Big East powerhouse Marquette looms. The Power Rank sees an incredibly close game here, predicting Marquette by 0.7 (essentially a toss up). However, from our interactive bracket, Murray State actually has a higher chance of making the Sweet 16 (38%) than Marquette (37.7%) since Marquette faces a tougher first round test in the winner of the Iona versus BYU game.

Prediction: Loss to Missouri in the Sweet 16.

Belmont (29th, 10.2). Belmont comes into the tournament riding a 14-game win streak that they will try to build upon in Nashville. The Bruins will look to ride their offense to a successful opening weekend; the team ranks 12th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and sports a 55% effective FG% (good for 5th in the NCAA). Though the #3 seed knocks off the #14 seed more than 80% of the time historically, The Power Rank gives Belmont a 44.5% chance of scoring the upset and favors the Bruins over both of their potential second round opponents, SDSU and NC State.

Prediction: Loss to Kansas in the Sweet 16.

For more content, follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, Belmont Bruins, College Basketball, Murray State Racers, Ohio State Buckeyes, Wichita State Shockers

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championships
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 21, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member