THE POWER RANK

Copa America win probabilities for 2016 at the knock out stage

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These Copa America win probabilities are based on my international soccer/football rankings that include competition since the start of 2012.

The calculations weight games by their importance. For example, a World Cup match is worth four times a friendly.

However, the rankings do not weight recent games more. This has interesting consequences for the above win probabilities.

United States

For example, the United States ranks 13th in my world rankings. The largest contribution comes from the 2014 World Cup in which they emerged from a group of death to make the knock out stage.

Other predictive rankings such as eloratings.net tend to weight recent matches more. With their struggles in last year’s Gold Cup, the United States ranks 22nd by this metric.

Still, the United States has a 16% chance to win the Copa America. They will enjoy home advantage in each of their matches, worth 0.56 goals.

Also, it looked like Colombia did the United States a favor when they lost Costa Rica. The United States won the group on goal differential and most likely avoided Brazil in the first knock out game.

Then Brazil lost to Peru 1-0 when the referee missed a blatant hand ball goal. Brazil fails to advance from the group, and Peru, 27th by my rankings, wins the group.

I ran the numbers for the situation in which the United States finished second to Colombia in the group. This means they play Peru and Chile/Mexico instead of Ecuador and Argentina. The United States had a 21% win probability, larger than their 16% chance.

Partial home advantage for Mexico

I’ve given Mexico a half home advantage, since El Tri always gets strong support from their fans on American soil. However, they only have a 10% chance to win.

Mexico faces a tough road through Chile and Colombia, the seventh and fourth ranked teams by my numbers, to make the final. Then they most likely face top ranked Argentina in the final.

Argentina

Argentina has the highest win probability at 32%. However, this is less than the about 58% chance (-140 as of Thursday morning) given by the futures market.

Note that superstar Lionel Messi has yet to start a match in this tournament because of an injury. He did score three goals as a reserve against Panama.

Win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

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Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 11.37.32 AMCan the United States win the 2015 Gold Cup?

Winning the Gold Cup means more than than just bragging rights over rival Mexico. With the win, the United States qualifies for the Confederations Cup in 2017, a key tune up tournament for the World Cup in 2018.

If another team wins the Gold Cup, they play a one game playoff against the United States, winner of the 2013 Gold Cup. The winner of this playoff represents North America at the Confederations Cup.

To determine win probabilities for the Gold Cup, I combined three different estimates into an ensemble prediction. Two came from my own calculations that rank international teams on offense and defense (see the bottom of this article), and a third came from the markets.

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The Gold Cup usually comes down to the United States and Mexico, but Costa Rica has emerged as a solid third team that made the final 16 of the World Cup last summer.

Let’s look at these three top contenders. The offense and defense rankings come from The Power Rank algorithm and use international matches since January 1st, 2011.

United States

12th offense, 27th defense

The United States looked fantastic in beating Germany in a friendly last month, and they also beat the Netherlands in another friendly. Both matches took place on European soil.

They need to play well at the start of the Gold Cup as their group has Honduras and Panama, two top 50 teams in my world soccer/football rankings. Meanwhile, Mexico has the dregs of CONCACAF (Guatemala, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, all ranked lower than 80th) in their group.

Coach Jurgen Klinsmann left central defender Matt Besler, who started every game of last year’s World Cup, off the Gold Cup roster. John Brooks will most likely start, and let’s hope they can improve a defense that has ranked 27th in the world over the last 4 years.

Mexico

11th offense, 9th defense

By the numbers, Mexico has a slight edge on the United States in my rankings. They don’t have the largest win probability though since the United States will enjoy home field advantage.

I’m not 100% certain the United States should get the full .59 goals for home field. If the United States and Mexico meet in Philadelphia for the final, there will be plenty of Mexican fans wearing green in attendance.

In my ensemble calculations, the market predictions most likely account for the semi-neutral type final in Philadelphia. They gave United States a 38% win probability with Mexico at 36%. The gap was bigger in my two calculations.

For Mexico, striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez broke his collar bone and will miss the Gold Cup. He scored 9 goals in 33 matches for Real Madrid last season.

Costa Rica

40th offense, 10th defense

Costa Rica had an amazing World Cup last summer. In winning their group, they sent Italy and England home before the knock out stage. Then they beat Greece to advance to the Round of 16.

Costa Rica relies on its defense, which is ranked 10th in the world over the last 4 seasons. They face a road game against Canada in Toronto in the group stage, but they should win their group before most likely playing the United States in the semi-final.

List of win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

1. United States, 39.1%.
2. Mexico, 33.6%.
3. Costa Rica, 11.7%.
4. Panama, 4.7%.
5. Honduras, 4.7%.
6. Jamaica, 2.3%.
7. Guatemala, 1.8%.
8. Canada, 1.4%.
9. El Salvador, 0.9%.
10. Trinidad and Tobago, 0.7%.
11. Haiti, 0.1%.
12. Cuba, 0.1%.

Can the United States beat Mexico in tonight’s Friendly in Mexico City?

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It seems like just yesterday that Charlie Davies scored at the Estadio Azteca to put the United States up 1-0 against Mexico.

Nope, that was 3 years ago. Mexico would come back with a long distance strike and fluky second half goal to win the World Cup qualifier 2-1.

Tonight, the United States travels to Mexico City again for a friendly, the first for these two teams on Mexican soil since 1984. So it was time to clean up my world football / soccer rankings. Previously, we discussed how a direct comparison of the two teams was difficult because the United States sent a reserve squad to the 2009 Gold Cup. Now, we’ve eliminated all games with the United States from that competition. And while we were at it, we eliminated all games with Mexico and Costa Rica from the 2011 Copa America, the South American competition in which these teams sent their under 23 team.

So what changed? Mexico actually rose from 12th to 11th in our rankings. Those games from South America clearly held them back. The United States rose from 21st to 17th, which I believe is about right for this team. US fans should be thrilled if new coach Jurgen Klinnsman pushes this team closer to the top 10 by the start of the next World Cup. Check out the full rankings here.

With our crude model for game outcomes, we give the United States a 25% chance to win tonight at Azteca. Home advantage is huge in soccer, and the team shouldn’t expect too many Americans among the 100,000 plus fans. Mexico has a 54% chance to win, while there is a 21% chance for a tie.

Of course, these predictions don’t account for the absence of Clint Demsey for the United States and Giovanni Dos Santos for Mexico.

What Everybody Ought to Know About World Football / Soccer

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The FIFA rankings are terrible.

Behind the disguise of weighting factors and other funny math, the FIFA rankings are a table of results. Win a match, get 3 points. Draw a match, earn 1 point. Attempt to adjust for strength of competition and divide by the number of games played, and you have a rating for each country.

But tables are misleading. For example, Newcastle finished 5th in the English Premier League. However, they scored only 5 more goals than they allowed, only 8th best among 20 teams. Goal differential is predictive of team strength, so Newcastle got a bit lucky this year.

At least in the Premier league, each team plays every other team twice. Tables are even more misleading in world football since countries play schedules of differing strength.

Rankings for World Football / Soccer Teams by The Power Rank algorithmHere at The Power Rank, we have developed better ranking system based on years of research in statistical physics. Instead of counting up points for wins and ties, we solve a set of linear equations, the bedrock operation in modern data mining. Moreover, our algorithm accounts for margin of victory and strength of schedule in ranking countries. Using all major international competitions since 2009, our algorithm assigns each team a rating, which gives a team’s strength in goals compared to the average international team. So Spain’s 2.0 rating says they will beat the average team (Belgium) by 2 goals on average at a neutral site.

While we haven’t tested these predictions on international football yet, the predictions for American college football work quite well. Over the last 10 years of college football bowl games (late season games played at neutral sites), the rankings have predicted more game winners, 62.4%, than the Vegas betting line, 61.7%. This sample includes 314 games.

For world soccer, the rankings reveal some hidden truths that everyone ought to know.

Brazil is the best team in the world

They haven’t done so well in their last two major competitions. The Brazilians exited the World Cup in 2010 in the quarterfinals against the Netherlands. Coach Dunga left after this debacle. Then in last year’s Copa America, Brazil lost to Paraguay in the quarterfinals.

However, our algorithm still thinks highly of Brazil due to their consistent track record of success. They won the Confederation’s Cup in 2009. More importantly, they finished first in World Cup qualifying out of South America, a brutal stretch of 18 games against some of the best teams in the world. Lastly, tournament soccer leaves even the best teams in the world subject to random chance. Brazil lost to the Netherlands on a freak own goal by Felipe Melo. Their exit in Copa America came in penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw.

Let’s contrast Brazil with Uruguay, the 5th best team in the world. Uruguay had more success than Brazil in the World Cup (4th place) and Copa America (winner). However, they finished 5th in World Cup qualifying in South America, 10 points back of Brazil. Uruguay had to win a playoff against Costa Rica just to make the World Cup.

And then no one will ever forgot the luck bestowed upon Uruguay against Ghana in the World Cup. Tied late in the quarterfinal game, Uruguayian striker Luis Suarez intentionally blocks a sure goal with his hand. Then Ghana’s Asamoah Gyan missed the ensuing penalty kick, allowing Uruguay to win the game in penalty kicks. Watch it again here.

We mean no disrespect to Uruguay. It takes incredible talent and work to earn the 5th spot in these rankings. However, Brazil is the better team.

Is the United States better than Mexico?

Well, no. The Power Rank puts Mexico at 12th, while the United States comes in at 22nd.

However, this distinction rests on a single game. In 2009, the United States went to the Confederations Cup in South Africa. That summer also featured the Gold Cup, the North American championship held every two years. While the Americans sent their first team to South Africa, they played a reserve unit on home soil in the Gold Cup. The reserves played very well, making it all the way to the final against Mexico. Even through halftime, the championship remained tied at 0.

Then the wheels came off for the Americans. Mexico, who played first teamers like Gio Dos Santos and Gerardo Terrado, scored 5 goals in the second half. The U.S. line up featured Jay Heaps and Brian Ching, players who would not make the 2010 World Cup squad.

If we do not include games from the 2009 Gold Cup, the United States and Mexico are ranked 18th and 19th respectively. Clearly, better rankings would account for situations in which one team doesn’t play their first team. For now, we’re treating all international matches the same.

Who is the best team in Europe?

Spain and the Netherlands are 2nd and 3rd in the rankings, separated by less than a hundredth of a goal. Essentially, our algorithm does not make a distinction between these two teams. The finals of Euro 2012 could quite possibly be a rematch of the World Cup final two years ago.

Next week, we’ll reveal the full rankings and discuss how to use our algorithm to project the entire bracket for Euro 2012. If you’re interested in this, please follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

What do you think?

We would love to hear from you. Are there other games like the 2009 Gold Cup final in which one team didn’t play their first team? How necessary is it to include friendly matches in these rankings? Please leave us a comment.

Thanks for reading.