THE POWER RANK

MLS CONCACAF First Round

By Leave a Comment

The Champions League
MLS is five for five
More success awaits

CONCACAF Champions League is back, baby! This past week saw the first round of the group stages take place in the 16 team tournament. Each group contains 4 teams, and the top two will advance. Seeding is such that no team from the same country is in the same group, although Canadian and American MLS squads can be (as is the case in Group C with Dallas and Toronto). The tournament has been steadily gaining in importance in North America, and its winner earns a berth in the FIFA Club World Cup. In last year’s tournament, Real Salt Lake made it all the way to the final, taking an important step for MLS internationally. Can the American/Canadian league go further this year?

In any tournament format, it’s always impossible to say, but MLS is off to a flying start after going 5-0-0 in the first round. The format of home and away pairings means each team still has five more matches, so qualification for any club is far from assured. Fortunately, MLS sides are at peak condition being in the middle of their season, while clubs from other countries are still gaining match fitness as their leagues start up. However, the situation will be reversed for the knock-out stages next spring. This makes it important for MLS to get as many teams as possible through the first round.

Of all the wins earned by the MLS teams, there is one clear standout: FC Dallas’ win over Pumas in Mexico City. This marked the first victory ever for an MLS team on Mexican soil in 25 tries. Not only are Pumas one of the top Mexican clubs, but they play in the altitude and smog of Mexico City which gives the US national team so much trouble. While Pumas elected to rest many of their starters in favor of a younger side, after the first 15 minutes Dallas played at a level as high as their competition. Overall, FC Dallas has had an impressive run this season despite the loss of the last year’s MVP, David Ferreira, early in the campaign. Now, having gotten the most difficult match out of the way in the CONCACAF Champions League, they are in good shape to be playing deep into that tournament. The Power Rank can give us some insight about their chances, as well as the other MLS teams.

While The Power Rank doesn’t track foreign soccer leagues (yet!), even if it did, the Mexican and Central American leagues are only just starting so it would need to rely on last season’s data. In addition, it is difficult to compare across different leagues; enough data for a meaningful comparison wouldn’t exist until after the group stages. However, The Power Rank shows that MLS is contributing some of its top sides to the Champions League, with three of the top four (#1 LA, #2 Seattle, and #4 Dallas), and four of the top six (#6 Colorado). The final slot is the Canadian team Toronto FC, which currently resides in the rank’s basement. Of these teams, Seattle and Dallas have a great chance to go deep into the tournament. Both should be able to best the non-Mexican teams in their group, and can expect reinforcements later this year or early next spring for the knock-out stages in the forms of David Ferreira and Steve Zakuani. Additionally, both are young sides, which will hopefully help them recover full fitness earlier in spring should they make it out of the group stages. While LA is clearly the best team in MLS right now and should emerge from their group, question marks surrounding the return of David Beckham and Landon Donovan make it harder to tell how far this older team can go. As for Toronto, well, miracles can happen, even in Canada.

MLS Blog 8/13/11

By Leave a Comment

The New York Red Bulls
Played well over in London town
Not so good over here

I hereby declare the New York Red Bulls to be the most enigmatic team in MLS.  Since starting the season 5-2-7 and playing an attractive mix of possession and attacking soccer, the Red Bulls have nearly imploded, winning just once in their last ten games.  In fact, having played exactly 2/3 of their games, New York now have exactly as many draws (12) as decisions.  Of those decisions, half are wins and half are draws, so for the moment, they have the unlikely symmetry of an exactly average team.

The statement of the Red Bulls’ mediocrity flies in the face of all expectation.  New York pays more for designated players than every other team, and one of them, Thierry Henry, leads the league in goals.  Their center backs are two of the finest in MLS:  US international Tim Ream and Mexico international Rafa Marquez.  They recently traveled to London and won a European pre-season tournament by beating French side Paris St.-Germain and drawing against one of the top teams in the world: Arsenal.  While it was pre-season for these teams, New York played well.  Particularly against Arsenal, they were well organized in defense and opportunistic on offense.

So what’s up with New York back here in the good ol’ US of A?  As I pointed out, the Red Bulls have strong forwards, speedy wingers, and strong center backs.  However, goalkeeper and midfield have been problem spots.  They recently traded midfielder Dwayne De Rosario to DC to make room to sign keeper Frank Rost.  Since, they have only managed one win out of six games.  It had been hoped at the beginning of the season that De Rosario would be able to complete the team by pulling the strings on the attack from the midfield.  While at this point there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment, New York does not seem to be performing any differently with or without him. After leaving the Red Bulls, though, he’s averaging a goal a game with United.

With their recent problems, New York has dropped to 10th in The Power Rank. However, they’re in 3rd place in the East, which would see them into the playoffs. Certainly don’t count them out, but the De Rosario situation illustrates a lingering problem: the lack of a central midfielder who can possess and distribute the ball. De Rosario has always been more of an attacking midfielder, which wasn’t what they needed with their strong array of forwards and wingers. Until they can pick up a true #10, don’t expect them to be able to keep pace with the top sides in MLS.

MLS Preview for July

By Leave a Comment

British invasion
It’s MLS versus the world
Enjoy this July

You can tell it’s July when you starting hearing about top European soccer clubs playing matches in America. Most foreign leagues start up in August so this is the time when teams in those league are having their pre-season tune-ups. The US has been a destination of choice in recent years for these clubs because of the improved quality of MLS sides, and of course, the money factor: top European sides can sell out stadiums over here. American soccer teams will face three of the top four English teams, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal, as well as Spanish runners up Real Madrid. It all culminates at the end of the month when the MLS All-Stars try their luck again against Man U. after getting dominated last year.

Of course, the British invasion is reminder that the MLS season is rapidly approaching it’s halfway point, with some teams having already played more than half of their games. With so many games, The Power Rank is getting a good measure of each team’s relative quality. The rankings demonstrate that the West is yet again the dominant conference as it occupies the top four spots. That means you can expect another ranting blog post about the foolishness of the seeding process for the playoffs in a few months. However, the league has quite a bit more parity this year with no team having as high a value as Real Salt Lake ended last season with (to see what a league with less parity looks like, check out the top of the MLB rankings).

One of the most interesting things to note at the top is that teams 2 through 4 have each suffered a long-term injury to a key player. Now that LA will be without goalkeeper Donovan Rickets for the next month or so, we’ll see if they can cope as well. Of all these injuries, Real Salt Lake have suffered the most. They ended last year’s rank as clearly the best side and started this season just the same, but after suffering a tough defeat in the Champions’ League finals followed by a devastating injury to midfielder Javier Morales, they have fallen to third in The Power Rank. It will be interesting to see how well they continue to contend through the rest of the season in a loaded Western Conference.

Looking east, Philly is giving hope to this year’s expansion teams (both ranked in the bottom four) by moving into the top third. New York has had a bit of bad luck in that they have the second most number of ties. A break here or there and they would be comfortably in charge of the lesser conference. Also keep an eye on Kansas City who had to start the season with 10 consecutive road games while construction was completed on their new Livestrong Stadium. They are ranked number 7, but have a whole lot of home games in front of them. This year, the last four playoff spots will be based on standings in a unified table, and if the season ended today the West would claim three of them with Sporting KC squeaking in for the fourth.

The possession receiver in soccer

By 1 Comment

Power play up top
Quite important in soccer
Think Keyshawn Johnson

Since soccer is not as well known by American athletic enthusiasts as are other sports, from time to time I’ll devote this space to going a little more in depth on some of the positions and strategies of the game. After all, it is execution in these areas that separate the bottom feeders in The Power Rank from the top teams. This week I’ll be talking about hold-up forward play, as demonstrated by Steven Lenhart of the San Jose Earthquakes this week (and yes, I’m from the bay area, of course I’m a ‘Quakes supporter).

After starting the season at the bottom of the The Power Rank, San Jose has risen to 8th riding a 6-game unbeaten streak. The past two games they have had to make do without last year’s Golden Boot winner Chris Wondolowski, currently on duty with the US national team. In these two games, they’ve outscored their opponents 6-2 to finally bring both their goal differential and Power Rank score into positive territory. A big part of the reason has been the play of Lenhart in his role as the hold-up forward. This particular position is easy to understand because of the many similarities it shares with a position in football: the possession receiver.

The possession receiver distinguishes himself from other types of receivers by trading speed for size, and usually having the softest hands on the team. Keyshawn Johnson, formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is always who I think of in this role. His big body allowed him to screen defensive backs and make plays when oriented towards the inside of the field. Possession receivers aren’t going to blow by a corner and score, but by keeping a drive going, they can put other players in the position to do just that.

In a similar way, a hold-up forward will use his body to screen defenders. While soft hands obviously don’t come into the picture, the same basic idea of being able to trap an incoming ball, either with feet or chest, does. This allows the forward to possess the ball and keep it away from the defense while his back faces the opponent’s goal. By holding up the ball, the forward gives his supporting players a chance to get forward, which is particularly important in transitioning from defense to offense as the midfielders and outside backs need time to run up the pitch. After they arrive, the forward can distribute the ball to them.

Of course, this being soccer the analogy isn’t perfect. After distributing the ball back to his teammates, the hold-up forward is still a forward, so it’s his responsibility to get into the other team’s 18-yard box and put the ball in the back of the net. Lenhart’s second goal of the match exemplified this style perfectly. He was able to gently one-touch a ball into the path of fellow forward Khari Stephenson. This let Stephenson strike the ball with both precision and power, so the goalkeeper could only punch the ball away rather than holding onto it. But Lenhart had already pushed forward and was rewarded with an easy finish by being the first player to the loose ball.

I’ll conclude with a programming note. The US Men’s National Team is currently playing the North American Gold Cup. This is the most important tournament the USMNT will play in until the 2014 World Cup, so do yourself a favor and check it out on Fox Soccer Channel.

Los Angeles Galaxy have a new look in the midfield

By Leave a Comment

New York and L.A.
A spectacle to behold
See what money buys

There was a lot of money on the pitch this past Saturday night as the New York Red Bulls traveled to face the LA Galaxy.  Between these two teams, they have five of the six most expensive designated players in the league.  Both occupy first place in their respective conferences, with the Red Bulls ranked #2 and LA #3 in The Power Rank.  MLS has been hoping for a strong New York-LA rivalry for many years to help electrify the country’s two biggest markets.  So with all that hype, did the match live up to it?

Unequivocally, yes!  Both teams played hard and with passion in what was an open and exciting game.  There were many good attacks, many shots on goal, and quite a few great saves.  The match ended at a 1-1 draw with each team capitalizing on one of the very few mistakes made by their opponent.  This is what the fans wanted, a competitive match decided by skill rather than by lucky bounces.  In the end, a draw was probably fair, although I think if there were to be a winner, LA deserved it more.

So let’s look in a little more detail at the Galaxy.  A 4-1 drubbing at Real Salt Lake not withstanding, the stars have shown brightly in LA this year.  While they finished last season as winners of the Supporter’s Shield for best regular season record, they fell to 3rd in The Power Rank by the end of the playoffs, and yours truly was critical of the over-reliance on the Beckham long-ball which dragged them down at the end of the year.  This season, however, they look like they could even be more dangerous… and could the reason be because Beckham is starting to get older?

Throughout his career, David Beckham has played predominately as a right-winger, which is a position that requires speed.  Speed is one of the first things go as one ages, so this season Galaxy coach Bruce Arena has moved Becks into the center of the midfield where he doesn’t need to be as fast.  What this has done has allowed Beckham to be more involved in the passing game, partnering with Juninho to move the ball around the midfield.  It has also gotten him closer to LA’s playmakers since he can deliver the ball more directly to striker Juan Pablo Angel, and most importantly, Landon Donovan has moved to the right side.  This is a more natural position for Landon and let’s him and Beckham connect with short, accurate passes.

All of this is not to say that David Beckham no longer bends it like, well, Beckham.  He is still capable of delivering a masterful long ball.  The difference this year is that he doesn’t always have to, and rather can pick and choose when to go over the top and when to maintain possession.  Both he and Donovan are now also looking for more through balls to the strikers, giving the Galaxy a more dynamic attack.  All of this can be illuminated with a simple analogy with football.  If Peyton Manning threw deep every play, most NFL defenses could shut him down because the Colts offense would become one-dimensional.  By mixing up different passes and having a good run game, Manning can keep his offense balanced and defenses off balance.  The Galaxy look to have found the same mix.