THE POWER RANK

Baseball Playoff Preview

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Just one game. San Francisco had to win just one game in a three game series with San Diego to clinch a playoff spot. But of course the Giants lose the first two games of the series, causing sweat to bead up on the forehead of every Giants fan here in the Bay area. On Sunday, they finally got their win, a convincing 3-0 shutout. It’s really unfortunate for the Padres, a small market team with a payroll only a whisker higher than Pittsburgh, the lowest payroll club in the majors.

Before the Power Rank offers a playoff forecast, let’s review our post All-Star break forecast. While we picked 4 of 4 playoff teams in the AL as Minnesota overtook the lower ranked Chicago White Sox, we struggled with only one NL playoff team, Atlanta. Moreover, the Braves didn’t win their division, ending up as the Wild Card behind division winners Philadelphia. San Francisco overtook San Diego in the West while our Colorado pick for the Wild Card didn’t quite work out. But Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco were were all ranked 13 and above at the All-Star break, Cincinnati was 17th and barely better than an average team with a 0.04 value. Yet, the Reds managed to hold off St. Louis in the Central as the Cardinals managed to lose too many games to the bottom teams in their division.

Over the last few months, Tampa Bay and the New York Yankees have traded the top spot in the Power Rank, far ahead of the third ranked team. Many teams have occupied the third spot, including Boston, San Diego, Atlanta and Minnesota. Finally, a late season surge by Philadelphia vaulted them into third behind Tampa Bay and New York. Expect these three top teams to dominate their first round matchups, as their point values suggests they would be favorites even on the road. The series between San Francisco and Atlanta is a coin toss, with the Giants coming out ahead because of home field advantage. In the AL championship series, we finally get the series we’ve been waiting for all year: Tampa Bay and New York. This is another coin toss with Tampa Bay as a slight favorite with home field. The winner of this series will beat Philadelphia in the World Series.

Just remember though, anything can happen in a short series. Even Cincinnati has a chance.

Final Regular Season Rankings for Major League Baseball.
1. Tampa Bay, 96-66, 1.05
2. New York Yankees, 95-67, 1.02
3. Philadelphia, 97-65, 0.79
4. Boston, 89-73, 0.63
5. Minnesota, 94-68, 0.60
6. Atlanta, 91-71, 0.55
7. San Francisco, 92-70, 0.53
8. Texas, 90-72, 0.46
9. St. Louis, 86-76, 0.41
10. Toronto, 85-77, 0.39
11. San Diego, 90-72, 0.37
12. Colorado, 83-79, 0.30
13. Cincinnati, 91-71, 0.23
14. Chicago White Sox, 88-74, 0.19
15. Oakland, 81-81, 0.18
16. Florida, 80-82, 0.06
17. Detroit, 81-81, 0.05
18. New York Mets, 79-83, 0.05
19. Los Angeles Angels, 80-82, -0.04
20. Los Angeles Dodgers, 80-82, -0.15
21. Washington, 69-93, -0.49
22. Cleveland, 69-93, -0.51
23. Milwaukee, 77-85, -0.53
24. Chicago Cubs, 75-87, -0.59
25. Arizona, 65-97, -0.65
26. Baltimore, 66-96, -0.67
27. Houston, 76-86, -0.77
28. Kansas City, 67-95, -0.87
29. Seattle, 61-101, -0.91
30. Pittsburgh, 57-105, -1.70

When baseball executives meet physicists.

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What happens when baseball executives show up at a physics and computer science conference? I had the opportunity to find out this past Saturday at the Sportvision Pitchf/x conference in San Francisco. Sportvision might be the most recognizable small company in Silicon Valley, as they make the ubiquitous yellow first down lines on American football broadcasts. As a company with expertise in sensors and software, Sportvision has embarked on a new mission to making a digital record of every major league baseball game. This effort started with Pitchf/x, a technology that tracks the trajectory of pitches. The data for every pitch thrown in the majors in the last three season is available online. The baseball blog community has made a huge contribution in analyzing this data, and Sportvision highlights this work at their conferences. Many of the talks on Saturday focused on Fieldf/x, Sportvision’s new technology with the more ambitious goal of tracking every player and event on the baseball field.

It was a fascinating cast of people who attended the meeting. Greg Moore, an almost impossible combination of Southern California baseball jock and computer programmer, gratiously invited me. As part of the business team at Sportvision, he had the unenviable task of giving the last talk of the day. However, he managed to wake up the crowd after eight hours by promising a Mindf/x technology by 2015. One of the first people I met was Doc Rosenthals, who practiced neurosurgery for 29 years before quitting to pursue his passion for baseball. He and his collegue Fred Vint have started Scientific Baseball, a company that uses modern technology in youth baseball development. The man who organized the talks was Alan Nathan, the physics baseball guru. Alan retired from the Physics department at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign to spend more time on his physics of baseball research. In an excellent talk, carefully tuned to the non-physics audience, he explained his most recent results in ball bat collisions. Then there was Allison Binns, the young Harvard PhD in Sociology who left academic life to work in the Boston Red Sox’s front office. We met later that night when the entire conference attended the Giants game. In a quintessential San Francisco moment, she and her colleagues used the WiFi to agonize over every pitch of the Red Sox game playing on an iPad.

The conference also provided a great chance to tell people about the Power Rank. Let’s check in and see how the second half predictions have worked out. The Rays and Yankees are tied atop the AL East, with Boston 7 games behind. It would be nearly impossible for the second place team in this division to not get the Wild Card into the playoffs. In the AL Central, Minnesota has a comfortable 4 game lead over the Chicago White Sox. While the Power Rank forecast did well in these two divisions, it is failing miserably in the NL Central. Here, 15th ranked Cincinnati has a 6 game lead over 8th ranked St. Louis. Since sweeping the Reds three weeks ago, the Cardinals have lost 7 games to bottom four teams in the division, none of which are higher than 24th in the Power Rank. Six games is a big deficit to make up, even for a significantly better team.

1. Tampa Bay, 81-50, 1.23
2. New York Yankees, 81-50, 1.21
3. Atlanta, 76-55, 0.81
4. Minnesota, 75-56, 0.68
5. San Diego, 76-54, 0.66
6. Boston, 74-57, 0.62
7. Philadelphia, 73-58, 0.56
8. St. Louis, 69-60, 0.47
9. Texas, 74-57, 0.42
10. Chicago White Sox, 71-60, 0.41
11. Toronto, 68-63, 0.36
12. Colorado, 69-61, 0.32
13. San Francisco, 72-60, 0.31
14. Florida, 65-65, 0.28
15. Cincinnati, 76-55, 0.20
16. New York Mets, 65-66, 0.20
17. Oakland, 65-65, 0.13
18. Los Angeles Dodgers, 68-64, 0.09
19. Detroit, 65-66, -0.08
20. Los Angeles Angels, 64-68, -0.08
21. Washington, 57-75, -0.42
22. Cleveland, 53-78, -0.60
23. Arizona, 53-79, -0.62
24. Chicago Cubs, 56-76, -0.75
25. Milwaukee, 62-69, -0.78
26. Houston, 60-71, -0.79
27. Seattle, 51-80, -0.80
28. Kansas City, 55-76, -1.00
29. Baltimore, 48-83, -1.01
30. Pittsburgh, 43-88, -2.03

Click here for a visual display of these rankings.

Major League Baseball, Second Half Forecast

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With the conclusion of the All Star break, the Power Rank offers a weather forecast for the second half of the season. Let’s start in the AL East, the division in which Major League Baseball still begins and ends. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays have traded the top position in the Power Rank back and forth all season while the Boston Red Sox have consistently been a distant third (see rankings at the bottom of the post). Boston will have a tough time catching either New York or Tampa Bay. Since the Power Rank rates the Yankees and Rays as equal, one has to look at the remaining schedule to see who has the advantage. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, they have 12 games remaining with the lowly Baltimore Orioles while the Yankees only have 6. Advantage Rays. Clearly, the second place team in the division gets the AL Wild Card.

The most interesting forecast comes from the AL Central, a division in which the Chicago White Sox hold a slim lead over the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins. Detroit is screwed. Not only are they the lowest team in the Power Rank but they have a significant number of games against AL East teams while Minnesota and Chicago play Oakland and Seattle. The Twins and White Sox seems to have similar schedules; the White Sox may have a slight edge with 7 games against the Baltimore Orioles while the Twins have 4. The Power Rank puts the Twins ahead of the Sox, but will this be enough to make up the 3.5 game lead in the standings?

As for the remaining divisions, the NL Central has the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals racing neck and neck for the division. The Cardinals are a significantly better team, and they hold the ultimate trump card: 12 games against the Pittsburgh Pirates to 6 for the Reds. It must be wonderful playing in a division with so many games against the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers and the Pirates. Bring up your prospects, throw them out their against division rivals. But the Power Rank has both the Cardinals and Reds quite low, as the algorithm expects more wins (and big wins) from the leaders of weak divisions. As for the other three divisions, expect San Diego, Atlanta and Texas to comfortably win their respective divisions, with the NL Wild Card going to the Colorado Rockies.

1. NY Yankees, 56-32, 1.26
2. Tampa Bay, 54-34, 1.19
3. Boston, 51-37, 0.89
4. San Diego, 51-37, 0.77
5. NY Mets, 48-40, 0.64
6. Atlanta, 52-36, 0.60
7. Colorado, 49-39, 0.58
8. Philadelphia, 47-40, 0.51
9. Minnesota, 46-42, 0.50
10. Florida, 42-46, 0.46
11. Texas, 50-38, 0.41
12. St. Louis, 47-41, 0.41
13. San Francisco, 47-41, 0.38
14. Chicago White Sox, 49-38, 0.22
15. Toronto, 44-45, 0.19
16. LA Dodgers, 49-39, 0.19
17. Cincinnati, 49-41, 0.04
18. Detroit, 48-38, 0.04
19. LA Angels, 47-44, -0.12
20. Oakland, 43-46, -0.14
21. Kansas City, 39-49, -0.41
22. Washington, 39-50, -0.46
23. Cleveland, 34-54, -0.58
24. Seattle, 35-53, -0.65
25. Arizona, 34-55, -0.79
26. Chicago Cubs, 39-50, -0.82
27. Milwaukee, 40-49, -0.82
28. Baltimore, 29-59, -1.10
29. Houston, 36-53, -1.23
30. Pittsburgh, 30-58, -2.17

Check out the site for a full explanation of these rankings and the numbers next to each team.