THE POWER RANK

Tigers, Indians in dead heat for AL Central in 2015

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Screen Shot 2015-03-25 at 11.32.18 AMWho will win the AL Central in 2015?

To answer this question, I aggregated win total predictions in my first article for the Detroit News. I’ll bring a numbers based perspective on the Tigers all season (every other week early in the season, once a month when college football picks up in August).

The model combines the markets with 6 different predictions based on analytics. The ensemble predicts a dead heat between the Tigers and Indians atop the AL Central, as their win totals differ by less than half a run.

I’ll say more about this ensemble model in a few weeks, but here are the results for all 30 MLB teams.

1. Washington, 93.4.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers, 92.7.
3. St. Louis, 88.5.
4. Los Angeles Angels, 87.6.
5. Seattle, 87.2.
6. Boston, 86.2.
7. Pittsburgh, 84.2.
8. Cleveland, 83.9.
9. Detroit, 83.6.
10. Chicago Cubs, 83.4.
11. San Diego, 83.3.
12. San Francisco, 83.2.
13. Oakland, 82.9.
14. Toronto, 82.3.
15. Baltimore, 81.9.
16. New York Yankees, 81.3.
17. New York Mets, 81.2.
18. Tampa Bay, 80.7.
19. Miami, 80.7.
20. Kansas City, 80.3.
21. Chicago White Sox, 79.5.
22. Milwaukee, 78.8.
23. Cincinnati, 77.2.
24. Houston, 75.9.
25. Texas, 75.8.
26. Colorado, 72.5.
27. Atlanta, 72.3.
28. Minnesota, 72.3.
29. Arizona, 72.0.
30. Philadelphia, 68.5.

Major League Baseball, Second Half Forecast

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With the conclusion of the All Star break, the Power Rank offers a weather forecast for the second half of the season. Let’s start in the AL East, the division in which Major League Baseball still begins and ends. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays have traded the top position in the Power Rank back and forth all season while the Boston Red Sox have consistently been a distant third (see rankings at the bottom of the post). Boston will have a tough time catching either New York or Tampa Bay. Since the Power Rank rates the Yankees and Rays as equal, one has to look at the remaining schedule to see who has the advantage. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, they have 12 games remaining with the lowly Baltimore Orioles while the Yankees only have 6. Advantage Rays. Clearly, the second place team in the division gets the AL Wild Card.

The most interesting forecast comes from the AL Central, a division in which the Chicago White Sox hold a slim lead over the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins. Detroit is screwed. Not only are they the lowest team in the Power Rank but they have a significant number of games against AL East teams while Minnesota and Chicago play Oakland and Seattle. The Twins and White Sox seems to have similar schedules; the White Sox may have a slight edge with 7 games against the Baltimore Orioles while the Twins have 4. The Power Rank puts the Twins ahead of the Sox, but will this be enough to make up the 3.5 game lead in the standings?

As for the remaining divisions, the NL Central has the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals racing neck and neck for the division. The Cardinals are a significantly better team, and they hold the ultimate trump card: 12 games against the Pittsburgh Pirates to 6 for the Reds. It must be wonderful playing in a division with so many games against the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers and the Pirates. Bring up your prospects, throw them out their against division rivals. But the Power Rank has both the Cardinals and Reds quite low, as the algorithm expects more wins (and big wins) from the leaders of weak divisions. As for the other three divisions, expect San Diego, Atlanta and Texas to comfortably win their respective divisions, with the NL Wild Card going to the Colorado Rockies.

1. NY Yankees, 56-32, 1.26
2. Tampa Bay, 54-34, 1.19
3. Boston, 51-37, 0.89
4. San Diego, 51-37, 0.77
5. NY Mets, 48-40, 0.64
6. Atlanta, 52-36, 0.60
7. Colorado, 49-39, 0.58
8. Philadelphia, 47-40, 0.51
9. Minnesota, 46-42, 0.50
10. Florida, 42-46, 0.46
11. Texas, 50-38, 0.41
12. St. Louis, 47-41, 0.41
13. San Francisco, 47-41, 0.38
14. Chicago White Sox, 49-38, 0.22
15. Toronto, 44-45, 0.19
16. LA Dodgers, 49-39, 0.19
17. Cincinnati, 49-41, 0.04
18. Detroit, 48-38, 0.04
19. LA Angels, 47-44, -0.12
20. Oakland, 43-46, -0.14
21. Kansas City, 39-49, -0.41
22. Washington, 39-50, -0.46
23. Cleveland, 34-54, -0.58
24. Seattle, 35-53, -0.65
25. Arizona, 34-55, -0.79
26. Chicago Cubs, 39-50, -0.82
27. Milwaukee, 40-49, -0.82
28. Baltimore, 29-59, -1.10
29. Houston, 36-53, -1.23
30. Pittsburgh, 30-58, -2.17

Check out the site for a full explanation of these rankings and the numbers next to each team.