THE POWER RANK

Is Alabama safe from an upset against LSU?

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Usually, I read the cookie cutter preview articles to make fun of the conventional wisdom in my own previews. However, the opening to the preview for LSU at Alabama nailed it.

So it’s not the “Game of the Century,” or maybe even the game of the week.

College football treated us to a tremendous Thursday night schedule. In Waco, Baylor’s offense looked human for the first time all season. They gained only 5.74 yards per play, not far above the 5.45 average.

However, the defense rocked. This unit, ranked 16th in my rankings before the game, held Oklahoma to 3.43 yards per play and 10 points. Baylor won by 29 points. My prediction in Grantland of their winning the Big 12 looks good.

In Palo Alto, Stanford pulled off a unique double. Their win over Oregon knocked the Ducks from the top of the BCS conversation. And the defense haraseed Oregon QB Marcus Mariota out of the Heisman picture.

However, the story of the game was the domination Stanford’s offensive line. By the second half, they left little doubt whether Stanford would convert a 3rd and short. The Cardinal chewed up the clock behind this massive unit.

Granted, Stanford got a bit lucky when D’Anthony Thomas fumbled at the Stanford 1 yard line, killing a drive. Not the play one expects from someone who said Oregon would score 40 points against Stanford.

Now the national title picture shifts to Tuscaloosa. Can LSU beat Alabama?

The injustice of schedule

First, let’s take a look at the big picture.

A loss to LSU does not knock Alabama over the national championship picture. LSU already has 2 conference losses, one of which came in a cross division game at Georgia. Meanwhile, Alabama enjoyed two cross division games against Tennessee and Kentucky, inferior teams to Georgia. The schedule screwed LSU this season.

If Alabama loses, they still win the SEC West by winning their remaining games. Then if they win the SEC title game, will the BCS keep out a one loss team from a conference that has won the last 7 national titles? I don’t know the answer to that, but I can imagine the pages of complaints on my Facebook feed from friends in SEC country.

And they have a point.

Role reversal this season

Last season, Zach Mettenberger took over the QB job for LSU. He was mediocre until the Alabama game, a night he suddenly turned into Andrew Luck. His precision passing gave LSU a late lead in the game, one that the defense could not hold in a dramatic Alabama win.

Mettenberger’s performance against Alabama made me look like an ass. In Sports Illustrated, I highlighted LSU’s pass offense against Alabama’s pass defense as a key edge for Alabama. Of course, Mettenberger never played that well again, especially in a bowl loss to Clemson.

This season, Mettenberger has lead a resurgance of LSU’s offense. They come into this game ranked 5th in pass offense. Morever, Alabama has been surprisingly weak in pass defense at 53rd in my rankings. Alabama had a huge edge in this matchup last season, but the opposite is true for Saturday night’s game.

Not your typical LSU team

Over the past few seasons, LSU has featured an elite defense full of future NFL draft picks. However, this unit has fallen off this season, ranking 29th in adjusted yards per play.

They face an Alabama offense that struggled with their execution early in the season. Coach Nick Saban stormed off the field at halftime against Ole Miss complaining about missed blocks. However, this unit has played much better recently, now ranking 14th in the nation in adjusted yards per play. They will have an edge against LSU’s defense.

Outlook

The line favors Alabama by 10, and my team rankings give a 16 edge to Alabama at home. However, I see this as a much closer game. Yards per play predicts a 50-50 game, mostly based on the new found strength of LSU’s offense. If Mettenberger excels and LSU makes a big play on special teams, they can beat Alabama.

Thanks for reading.

3 college football predictions from yards per play, week 7, 2013

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Rankings by yards per play on offense and defense.

Rankings by yards per play on offense and defense.

The Power Rank started as a method of ranking teams based on the final score of games. Based on research in statistical physics, this algorithm takes a team’s margin of victory and accurately adjusts for strength of schedule.

However, if you want to truly understand football, you have to dig past the final score. Offense, defense and special teams all make contributions to the outcome of the game.

To accurately evaluate the offense and defense, consider yards per play. This statistic captures an offense’s ability to move the ball and the defense’s skill in preventing this movement. I apply the ranking algorithm to yards per play to accurately account for strength of schedule in these numbers.

The national championship game in 2011 season

To see the predictive power of yards per play, let’s go back to the 2011 season. To the chagrin of college football fans outside the South, LSU met Alabama in the national championship game. The team rankings picked a 4 point win for LSU. This seemed reasonable given LSU’s 3 point win at Alabama during the regular season.

However, yards per play told a different story. While LSU and Alabama had elite defenses, Alabama had the 9th best offense by adjusted yards per play while LSU ranked only 29th on offense. On a neutral site, yards per play suggested an Alabama win.

Alabama won the national title game 21-0.

Why were the team rankings off? Turnovers.

LSU had a +20 turnover margin during the 2011 season. This included a critical interception against Alabama in their regular season contest that prevented an Alabama score.

Turnovers tend to be random, as a team’s turnover margin has no power in predicting future turnovers. But these high impact events can greatly impact the final score, as seen in the regular season content with LSU and Alabama.

However, turnovers have almost no impact on yards per play, which makes it a useful metric for evaluating teams.

Let’s look at what yards per play says about 3 games this weekend.

Florida at LSU

LSU’s insanely difficult schedule continues. Out of the opposite division, the Tigers lost to Georgia and face Florida this weekend. In contrast, Alabama draws Tennessee and Kentucky out of the SEC East. There is no better example of the injustice of schedule in college football.

Over the past few seasons, LSU has featured a dominant defense with an offense that comes along for the ride. However, by yards per play adjusted for schedule, the opposite is true this season. The offense ranks 9th, mostly on the new found accuracy of QB Zach Mettenberger. The defense, which lost countless stars to the NFL, checks in at 38th.

Florida has the top ranked defense by yards per play and should slow down LSU’s offense. In addition, QB Tyler Murphy has taken over for the injured Jeff Driskel and completed 72% of his passes. Florida’s offense could be better than the 39th that their season long stats suggest.

Yards per play predicts an 11 point win for Florida on the road. This is quite different from the team rankings (4.6) and line (7) which predicted an LSU victory.

Georgia State at Troy

Saying Georgia State is a bad football team is like saying Erin Andrew is pretty. It does not justice to how truly awful this team has been in its first year as an FBS school. The Panthers are 0-5 with 3 losses to FCS schools in this transitional year.

Sun Belt rival Troy travels to Atlanta to play Georgia State this weekend. Larry Blakeney has coached this team for the last 22 years, an incredible tenure in this age of “what have you done for me lately”. Only a good coach could last this long. Let’s call an easy win for Troy.

Not so fast.

Georgia State is an 18 point underdog. This suggests Troy is 21 points better than the Panthers. However, the team rankings that use games from last season predict only a 12 point win for the road team Troy.

Moreover, Georgia State looks even better by yards per play. Troy’s defense has been awful, ranking 117th out of 125 teams. Georgia State will not scare anyone with their 95th ranked offense, but it looks like a good match up for the Panthers.

Even though Troy has the advantage on the other side of the ball, yards per play predicts a 5 point win for Georgia State. While there is certainly noise in such an early season prediction, it’s too big a difference from the line and the team prediction to ignore.

I almost didn’t post the analysis for this game. If you predict a team that went 1-11 as an FCS team last season will cover and they lose by 50, you look like an ass. However, my numbers get better each week. Moreover, Troy gave up 7.59 yards per play (5.54 FBS average) to South Alabama in a narrow 1 point win last week.

So I’m going with Georgia State.

Oklahoma and Texas

The Red River Rivalry in Dallas has some interesting story lines this week.

Texas has been terrible this season, and coach Mack Brown might lose his job and the over $5 million per season that comes with it. They have won the past two weekends against Kansas State and Iowa State, but required a bit of luck in both games. More on that soon.

Oklahoma finished last season 15th in my team rankings and had their lowest rating since 2005. Questions about the talent of the defensive line continue to surface for the Sooners.

However, Oklahoma is in much better shape than Texas. Oklahoma features the 29th best offense and should up points against the 79th ranked defense of Texas.

On defense, Oklahoma features the 29th best pass defense but only the 103rd ranked rush defense. Texas has been average in both passing and rushing so far this season. This implies they might be able to run the ball, which could be a problem for Oklahoma if Texas takes a lead. However, if Texas falls behind, they’ll find it hard to throw the ball, particularly with QB Case McCoy taking over for David Ash.

Overall, yards per points implies a 10 point win for Oklahoma. This number should probably be larger, since Texas scored on a hail mary against Iowa State, a play that depends more on luck than skill. This pushes the prediction closer to the line of 14.

Final Note

Yards per play is a powerful way to evaluate teams. However, it is far from perfect. It does not account for special teams, and turnovers can still impact the game.

When I say yards per play predicts a 10 point win for Oklahoma, it implies an expected point spread given equal impact of turnovers and special teams for both teams.

Members of The Power Rank have access to all my adjusted numbers and predictions. To learn more, click here.

Thanks for reading.

Do you pick Alabama or the field? A 2013 SEC college football preview

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SEC_win_prob_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is a guest post by Chad Peltier. Raised by an Ohio State fan but a graduate of the University of Georgia, Chad spends his spare time uncovering the deepest mysteries in football analytics.

Despite Alabama’s past stranglehold on the SEC (and college football in general), the SEC should be home to one of the tightest, most intriguing races in the country this season.

The numbers suggest that Alabama should remain the favorite, but a crop of other teams will challenge the Tide for supremacy. Texas A&M – with or without Manziel – LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida all have excellent shots at dethroning Nick Saban in the last year of the BCS.

For more on how the win probabilities are calculated, click here.

Let’s break down both divisions, starting with the East.

SEC East

The front end of the SEC East should be extremely familiar, with Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina vying for their ticket to the SEC Championship game. The Power Rank estimates a 92.7% chance that one of these three teams will win the SEC East.

Florida

East win probability: 27.6% (3rd). SEC win probability: 9.7% (5th).

Will Muschamp will field a talented but inexperienced squad in 2013, which includes a devastated secondary (losing Matt Elam and Josh Evans) and linebacker units (losing Jonathan Bostic).

The bigger problem might be the same as last year’s team – the lack of any game-breaking offensive threats. ESPN commentator David Pollack questions, “Where’s the talent? Where’s the offensive talent? I can name three receivers from Alabama and three receivers from Georgia off the top of my head that would be the No. 1 guy for Florida.”

Much depends on Jeff Driskel’s development in the passing game. Senior receiver Andre Debose was injured and is now out for the season, so new wide receivers coach (and former Kentucky head coach) Joker Phillips has his work cut out for him.

Georgia

East win probability: 29.8% (2nd). SEC win probability: 10% (4th).

The Gators’ Cocktail Party rivals lost all but four defensive starters to graduation and the NFL, but it’s simply a matter of reloading the already stockpiled talent at Georgia. The top-end talent is unbeatable on both offense and defense at Georgia, but the question is whether the depth at a few key positions – offensive line, linebackers, and the devastated secondary – can handle the long grind of physical games against USC, Florida, and (potentially) Alabama.

Reports from fall camp suggest that the offensive and defensive lines are deeper this season, with veteran players finally joining the game rotation. The offensive line will be anchored by five-star recruit John Theus, seniors Kenarious Gates and David Andrews, as well as newly eligible Kolton Houston. Star tailbacks Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall should have plenty of space to run behind this star line, while senior quarterback Aaron Murray will have the time necessary to target one of the deepest receiving cores in the country.

South Carolina

East win probability: 35.3% (1st). SEC win probability: 11.7% (3rd).

The final challenger in the East is South Carolina. Spurrier’s Gamecocks aren’t just a vehicle for creating Clowney highlights (though that wouldn’t be a terrible thing), but have been one of the most consistently good (but not great) teams in the SEC over the past four seasons.

Clowney loses his fellow defensive end Devin Taylor to the NFL, as well as four of five top running backs, three of the top four receiving targets, the top five linebackers, as well as the stud safety behind them, D.J. Swearinger. Spurrier has work cut out for him this season, but it’s impossible to discount how stable Spurrier has kept his Gamecock ship the past four seasons.

Rest of SEC East

Missouri and Tennessee look fairly similar as middle-of-the-road teams on paper. Tennessee first year head coach Butch Jones will attempt to find the cure for the Volunteers poor turnover margin the past few seasons. Missouri must turn its penchant for explosive plays in to some measure of offensive consistency. Dorial Green-Beckham will pace a deep receiving core that will attempt to reclaim the numbers from when Missouri was in the Big 12. Missouri and Tennessee have a slim chance to win the SEC based upon The Power Rank estimates, with a .5% and .4% win probability overall and a 3.4% and 2.8% chance to win the East respectively.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s already poor run defense will be hurt by the loss of the top three defensive tackles. Coach James Franklin has Vanderbilt playing its best football in the history of the program. But this is a critical year as Vanderbilt attempts to break out of the SEC cellar and into the middle of the road group of SEC teams. This is likely not the Commodores year, with a .1% win probability for the SEC and just a 1% chance of winning the East.

First year coach Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him at Kentucky, the reigning basement dweller in the SEC. UK brings a legacy of both underdeveloped and shallow depth as well as a negative turnover margin that will likely frustrate Kentucky fans until Stoops’ surprisingly good recruiting classes get on campus next year. Kentucky has close to no chance of winning the SEC (0.0%) and only a .1% chance of winning the East.

SEC West

While the SEC East is fairly evenly divided between great, middle, and poor teams, the West is more stratified. The top three overall SEC teams should reside in the West, including Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. However, Ole Miss is certainly doing its best to enter this group under second year head coach Hugh Freeze.

Alabama

West win probability: 62.2% (1st). SEC win probability: 46.7% (1st).

Alabama remains the obvious leader of the Western triumvirate, but it is nonetheless striking how dominant the numbers suggest that the Tide will be in 2013. In The Power Rank’s preseason rankings, the margin between the Tide and the second ranked Aggies (7.5 points) is larger than the difference between the second and seventh-ranked SEC teams (4.8 points).

QB AJ McCarron led one of the most surprisingly efficient offenses in the country. He only threw three interceptions while remaining explosive with receivers Amari Cooper, Kenny Bell, and Kevin Norwood and freshman running back TJ Yeldon. The offense should improve even further in 2013 behind McCarron’s experience and the addition of new threats Robert Foster, Altee Tenpenny, and Derrick Henry.

If there are any areas for concern for Alabama this season, the offensive line does lose its top three (All-American) linemen and hasn’t recruited quite as deeply as we might expect. Many of offensive line coach Mario Cristoball’s players are former three-star recruits that will be pressed in to action this season. Traditionally strong defensive lines at LSU and Georgia, as well as the surprisingly talented Ole Miss line could give the Tide trouble.

With the graduation of Dee Milliner and the Geno Smith’s arrest, Alabama has another pressure point at cornerback. However, the offensive line and cornerback positions are still more solid than many of the other top-10 teams. Alabama has a realistic shot at perfection once again behind a forgiving schedule.

Texas A&M

West win probability: 22.7% (2nd). SEC win probability: 13.7% (2nd).

This was an offseason controlled by Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel story-lines, but coach Kevin Sumlin has brought steady growth and consistently entertaining offenses to College Station that justify (most of) the hype.

Interestingly enough, Texas A&M has improved despite its atrocious turnover margin, which has been in the red since the 2007 season.

If anything might derail the Aggies’ ascent to the college football elite, it might be heavy personnel turnover and limited depth. Sumlin can claim the worst personnel turnover in the SEC, with heavy losses at offensive line, linebacker, and defensive line.

The key to 2013 will be the ability of incoming freshmen to fill the holes in the front seven to stop the rush attacks of LSU, and Alabama.

LSU

West win probability: 8.5% (3rd). SEC win probability: 4.6% (6th).

LSU’s season will be built on senior QB Zach Mettenberger, who hasn’t quite exploited his NFL-quality arm in his short starting career. LSU has been consistently good, but only elite in 2011 behind two senior quarterbacks and a dominant defensive line.

The Tigers are hurt by the departures of DE Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, but high-quality recruits should emerge to take the mantle.

With a 4.6% probability of winning the SEC and 8.5% chance at the Western title, the Tigers are just the sixth most likely to take home the SEC title. LSU probably doesn’t have the stars to dethrone Alabama this season, but its defensive line should match up well with the Tide’s offense to make things interesting.

Ole Miss

West win probability: 6% (4th). SEC win probability: 2.7% (7th).

Ole Miss should be one of the most interesting teams to follow in 2013, with the allure of a still new head coach and an exciting offense. Plus, the Rebels welcome a stellar class of young recruits (including the top overall freshman Robert Nkemdiche, five star receiver Laquon Treadwell, and top offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil), and return a defensive line that has the talent (if not depth) to compete with the top offensive lines in the SEC.

The key for Coach Freeze is depth in 2013, as quality depth helps to create consistency. There is perhaps no team in the SEC that is more in need of consistency than the Rebels, who have fielded drastically different teams for the past five years. In fact, the only thing consistent about the Rebels has been their poor turnover margin, which has been negative for the past four seasons.

If Freeze can bring any measure of consistency to the program, then Ole Miss should have a 2.7% of capturing the SEC crown and a 6% shot at the Western title. Ole Miss is just outside the “good” group of SEC teams, with almost the same chance to be the Western representative as LSU.

Rest of SEC West

Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas make up the bottom tier of the West and the SEC as a whole. All had down years in 2012 and shared terrible turnover margins, but things might get worse before they get better for both Arkansas and Mississippi State. These two teams have almost no chance at the SEC title and only a .1% probability of winning the West. Dan Mullen has one of the more difficult jobs in the country, competing in the loaded SEC West and now vying with resurgent instate rival Ole Miss.

Auburn, on the other hand, benefits from a wealth of returning starters and the relative familiarity of first year head coach Gus Malzhan’s offense. Auburn’s team culture suffered heavily under Chizik’s staff, with the team not buying in or giving full effort commensurate with the talent levels on the field. With the Tigers’ talent, new team ethos, and new offensive system, the Tigers should rejoin the good or at least middle-pack teams in the SEC this season. New first string quarterback Nick Marshall will determine Auburn’s ceiling this year, but Auburn still just has a .3% probability of winning the West (.1% overall).

Overview

Between new head coaches at Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee, the relative parity between Georgia, Florida, LSU, USC, and Texas A&M, and the stellar recruiting classes, the SEC races will be exciting in 2013.

Besides the (fairly) easy pick for Alabama to return to the SEC Championship, it’s difficult to pick an eastern representative between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. As of now, an Alabama-South Carolina bout or Georgia-Alabama rematch is the most probable outcome, but the margins are extremely slim.

As for the eventual SEC champion, we return to our original question: Alabama or the remaining 13 SEC teams?

Take the field. At 53%, the odds are in your favor.

The injustice of schedule in college football – how analytics can determine conference win probabilities

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Brass Scales Of Justice Off Balance, Symbolizing Injustice, Over WhiteCollege football has a short season. Eight or nine games determine whether your teams wins its division or conference.

This conference schedule used to include all other teams in the conference, a round robin format. Then SEC commissioner Roy Kramer added Arkansas and South Carolina so his 12 team conference could hold a championship game. The Big Ten added Penn State to grow to 11 teams.

When conferences get bigger and separate into divisions, your team can no longer play every other team in the conference. While each team plays a round robin in its division, the cross division schedule can vary greatly.

For example, consider the Big Ten Legends division. Michigan plays Ohio State, a national title contender for most people, Penn State and Indiana from the other division. Michigan State plays Indiana, Purdue and Illinois, arguably the worst 3 teams in the conference.

The schedule imbalance is worse for LSU in the SEC West, as they face Georgia and Florida, two national championship contenders, from the other division. Alabama faces Tennessee and Kentucky instead.

This imbalance in schedule greatly affects your team’s chance to win its division.

Let’s put some numbers behind this injustice.

How to determine win probabilities for a conference

The game of football is inherently random. A fumble or a tipped pass can flip the results of a game in a single play. It can even derail Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty for a few weeks, as AJ McCarron thew a goal line interception to seal their loss to Texas A&M last season.

To account for this randomness, I use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the 2013 college football season. This method employs random numbers to sample the many outcomes that can happen during the season.

Monte Carlo is the same technique Ed Thorpe used to test how his black jack strategy would perform in a casino. He did pretty well in those casinos, inspiring a generation of kids like Jeff Ma to win millions in Las Vegas.

How does this work for college football? Suppose Michigan has a 53% chance to beat Nebraska at home this season, as my preseason rankings predict. In a simulation, Michigan wins this game with 53% probability. Just like an actual football game, the simulation takes the uncertainty heading into the game and turns into the certainty of a win or loss. The simulation repeats this random picking of game winners for each game.

Flipping coins is the easy part of simulating the college football season. The computer then calculates the win loss record from the game results to determine the winner of the division. In the case of a tie, this gets complicated. The computer looks at head to head records and division records to determine a champion.

This simulation is repeated many times, and the win probability for a team is the fraction of simulations that it wins its division or conference.

The win probabilities for each game come from my preseason rankings. These are based on a regression model that considers a team’s rating in The Power Rank, turnovers and returning starters.

SEC West

This is the toughest division in college football. In my preseason rankings, three of the top 5 teams in the nation come from the SEC West. LSU brings up the rear behind Alabama and Texas A&M at 5th in the nation.

The schedule will make life even more difficult for the Tigers this season. Here are the cross division games for the top 3 teams; the first team is a rivalry game played every year.

  • Alabama – Tennessee, at Kentucky
  • Texas A&M – at Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • LSU – Florida, at Georgia

LSU faces Florida and Georgia, two teams that could contend not just for the SEC East title but also the national championship. Instead, Alabama faces two struggling programs in Tennessee and Kentucky with first year head coaches. This discrepancy surfaces in the win probabilities for the SEC West.

The Power Rank's preseason prediction for SEC WestAlabama has a 62% chance of winning the SEC West, while LSU has only a 9% chance. LSU coach Les Miles has complained about the schedule before, even suggesting that a “random computer draw” pick the cross division games. You know something is wrong when a football coach suggests using computers.

Big Ten Legends Division

Each Big Ten team also plays a fixed cross division game each year. For the three teams expected to contend for the Legends division, this game is first in these lists of cross division games in 2013.

  • Nebraska – at Penn State, Illinois, at Purdue
  • Michigan – Ohio State, at Penn State, Indiana
  • Michigan State – Indiana, Purdue, at Illinois

Michigan plays Ohio State, a potential national title contender, while Nebraska and Michigan State duck the Buckeyes this year. Michigan and Nebraska both play at Penn State, a program still in good shape despite the devastating sanctions from the Jerry Sandusky scandal. Instead, Michigan State gets arguably the 3 worst teams in the conference.

The Power Rank's preseason prediction for the Big Ten Legends Division.This division is an interesting case study for schedule imbalance since my preseason rankings rate these 3 teams so closely. Only a point and a half separate Nebraska from Michigan State, with Michigan in between.

In my simulations, Michigan State has a 34% chance to win the division. Michigan has a 19% chance despite a higher rating than the Michigan State. Nebraska, which has a home game against Michigan State, has 38% chance. The schedule does no favors for Michigan.

These odds are calculated from my preseason rankings, which rank Ohio State 16th in the nation. This is contrary to the national consensus that the Buckeyes will contend for the national title. If the Buckeyes are actually one of the top 3 teams in the country, the gap in win probability between Michigan and Michigan State will get larger.

Pac-12 North

Out west, teams play a nine game conference schedule. This includes the 5 teams from within the division and 4 of 6 teams from the other division. The California schools (Stanford, California in the North, USC and UCLA in the South) play each other each season.

These schools insisted on keeping these rivalries intact when the conference grew from 10 to 12 teams. And no one will argue against playing a historic rival every year, especially with the ticket sales these games generate. However, these games will have an impact on the Pac-12 North division.

Here are the cross division games for Oregon and Stanford, two highly ranked teams expected to contend for the division.

  • Oregon – at Colorado, UCLA, Utah, at Arizona
  • Stanford – Arizona State, at Utah, UCLA, at USC

In essence, Oregon plays at Colorado, the worst team in the South, while Stanford plays at USC, the best team in the South. As a result, Oregon has a 73% chance to win the division, while Stanford has a 19% chance.

The Power Rank's preseason projection for the Pac-12 NorthA big part of this discrepancy is that the preseason rankings have Oregon rated a touchdown better than Stanford. Whether this holds up depends on how well new Oregon coach Mark Helfrich does after Chip Kelly left for the Philadelphia Eagles. However, schedule also plays a role in these odds.

How to fix the imbalance in schedule

With today’s mega conferences in college football, your team no longer plays every other team in the conference. This can lead to an imbalance of schedule across teams in a division, as you can see in SEC West, Big Ten Legends and Pac-12 North this 2013 season. This imbalance will affect your team’s odds of winning the division.

In my next blog post, I’ll suggest how to fix this problem. There’s no perfect solution, except for going back to 1991 and convincing Roy Kramer not to add to additional teams to the SEC. But fans deserve better.

Do you have any suggestions for how to fix the imbalance in conference schedule? Let me know in the comments.

The Top 25 College Football Teams of 2013 by Recruiting Rankings

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Nick_Saban_StatueRecruiting rankings do matter.

Each year, Rivals assigns a rating or points value to each school that describes the talent of the players who signed a letter of intent. For Sports Illustrated, we developed a model that takes the Rivals ratings and predicts future team performance. To compare the rankings from this model with the preseason AP poll, we looked at which rankings better predicted the final AP poll.

The Rivals model did as good or better than the preseason AP poll on 46 out of 100 teams over the last 4 years. This is remarkable given the limited information the recruiting model has compared with the writers that vote in the AP poll.

To get the full story on SI.com, click here.

Before we count down the top 25 teams for 2013, we note the following about this regression model.

  • The regression model has learned from the past by relating recruiting ratings to the team ratings from The Power Rank algorithm. For example, recruiting data from 2009 to 2012 were fit to The Power Rank’s results for the 2012 season. Our team ratings from the regular season have picked the winner in 62.8% of bowl games over the last 11 years, a better percentage than the Vegas line (62.2%). Part of the accuracy of the recruiting model depends on our team ratings.
  • We used the final AP poll as the measuring stick for the accuracy of the Rivals model and the preseason AP poll. This poll has problems, as it strongly considers wins but almost ignores margin of victory. However, it was the most relevant measurement of team strength for a general college football audience.
  • The 100 teams we looked at were the top 25 teams in the preseason AP poll over the last 4 years. This puts the recruiting model in a better light, since this set of teams didn’t include teams highly ranked by the recruiting model but outside the AP top 25. For example, the recruiting model had Auburn 7th heading into the 2012 season. The preseason AP poll had Auburn 28th, which more accurately predicted their disasterous season.

With the passing of National Signing Day 2013, we now have the Rivals ratings to predict the 2013 college football season. The predictions are based the past 8 years of team performance.

25. Stanford. The Cardinal only had 12 scholarships to offer incoming freshmen. Since the number of recruits directly affects the Rivals team rating, Stanford only had the 61st ranked class this year, a far cry from their 5th ranked class a season ago.

24. Miami (FL). Miami coach Al Golden can’t walk off campus without tripping over a highly touted high school player. However, impending NCAA sanctions made recruiting difficult this year, as they had the 44th best class, much worse than their 9th ranking a year ago.

23. Virginia Tech. Despite two down years, coach Frank Beamer still recruited the 22nd ranked class. The Hokies need QB Logan Thomas’s passing to improve or groom a better passer.

22. California. The Bears continue to recruit well despite the coaching change from Jeff Tedford to Sonny Dykes. However, this ranking is probably too high. The Cal offense will be learning a new spread system under Dykes, while the defense lost coordinator Clancy Pendergast to USC.

21. Washington. The Huskies have continually improved their recruiting rank over the last 4 year, rising from 28th in 2010 to 18th in 2013. Hopefully, some of the linemen recruiting during this time will give QB Keith Price better protection next season.

20. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers pulled in the 17th best class, by far the 3rd best class in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, Michigan and Ohio State were way ahead, and Nebraska has to travel to Ann Arbor this season.

19. South Carolina. With all the media chatter about the talent in Columbus and the draw dropping hits from Jadeveon Clowney, you might think South Carolina is a top 10 recruiting team. In reality, their 16th ranking in 2013 was their best over the last 4 seasons.

18. Tennessee. The Rivals model had the Vols 13th in the nation last season, which was way too high. With new coach Butch Jones taking over, this year’s 18th ranking is also probably too high.

17. Oregon. Over the last 4 years, the Rivals model has consistently underrated the Ducks. The preseason AP poll was more accurate each year. Will this continue after head coach Chip Kelly handed the program over to Mark Helfrich?

16. UCLA. In talent rich Southern California, the Bruins always recruit well. They finally lived up to that talent last season under first year head coach Jim Mora. Their 11th ranked class this year should continue this trajectory.

15. Texas A&M. New coach Kevin Sumlin is getting tons of credit for recruiting the 10th best class this year. Of course, it helps that Johnny Manziel (a 3 star recruit) led the Aggies to their best season in more than a decade.

14. Mississippi. The Rebels and coach Hugh Freeze had a magical signing day, landing two top 10 recruits on the offensive and defensive line. Their 7th ranking is by far their best since 2002. However, three of their rivals in the SEC west are ranked higher in these rankings.

13. Clemson. With their dramatic, come from behind win against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, the Tigers will surely be an overrated top 10 team in the preseason AP poll. This ranking in the teens seems more appropriate.

12. Oklahoma. In the past 12 years, the Sooners have recruited a top 10 class 7 times. However, none of these top 10 classes have occurred during the last 3 seasons. Coach Bob Stoops needs more talent on the defensive line to start contending for national titles again.

11. Texas. Even Mack Brown can’t recruit after 3 subpar seasons. The Longhorns had the 23rd ranked class, their worst since 2002. Their usually excellent defense really needs help after last season.

10. Georgia. How would the Bulldogs recruiting class would have fared if the coaches had told QB Aaron Murray to spike the ball during the waning moments of the SEC championship game? A win over Alabama would have landed Georgia in the national title game against Notre Dame. Instead, they had the 12th best class, a fine rank but the second worst for coach Mark Richt over the last 12 years.

9. Michigan. After a disasterous 3 seasons under Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke has turned around this program both on the field and recruiting trail. The Wolverines notched the 5th ranked class after finishing 7th last year. These are their two best ranked classes over the last 8 years.

8. USC. While we kept hearing about the defections from the Trojan’s class, no one mentioned that coach Lane Kiffin still had five 5 star recruits coming to campus, more than any other school (yes, even Alabama). Lack of talent will not be a problem for USC.

7. Auburn. Yes, feel free to call BS on this one. The Tigers continue to recruit well. But unless the next Cam Newton and Nick Fairley show up on campus this fall, Auburn will not return to elite status this season under new coach Gus Malzahn.

6. Florida State. Call BS on this one at your own risk. Despite disappointing loses to NC State and Florida this year, expect the talent rich Seminoles to exceed expectations next season.

5. LSU. It’s a bit shocking that top recruit Robert Nkemdiche picked Ole Miss over LSU. There’s more certainly in winning games in Baton Rouge. Still, coach Les Miles landed the 6th best class in the nation.

4. Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish took full advantage of their undefeated regular season and landed the 3rd best class in the nation. While we should expect Notre Dame to be good next year, 4th is probably too high.

3. Ohio State. The Buckeyes will not surprise anyone this year. In coach Urban Meyer’s first season, Ohio State started the year 18th in the preseason AP poll. Now, with an undefeated season and a 2nd ranked recruiting class, anything but a national title will be a disappointment.

2. Florida. Last year, first year coach Will Muschamp landed the 3rd ranked class despite finishing 7-6. Somehow, a 11-2 season this year got the Gators the 4th ranked class (although they did top the rankings before National Signing Day). Talent is never a problem at Florida.

1. Alabama. Duh. What did you expect? After going 7-6 in his first year at Alabama, coach Nick Saban still recruited the top ranked class in 2008. This started a streak of top ranked classes for Alabama in 5 of the last 6 years. The rest of the SEC should resort to a voodoo consultant to bring bad turnover luck to Alabama next season.

Outlook

No one should take these rankings too seriously. With the short season and the youth of the players involved, college football is incredibly difficult to predict during the preseason. And these rankings have their problems. There’s an incredibly high likelihood that Boise State will be better than the 60th best team in the nation next year.

However, these rankings are still useful, and not only because they are six months ahead of the preseason AP poll. As with all predictive analytics, use these rankings has a guide to help navigate expectations for next season.

Moreover, this is only the beginning of our preseason college football predictions. To keep up to date, sign up for our free email newsletter below.

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