Louisville Cardinals

How safe is Florida State from an upset to Louisville?

Florida State won the national championship last season. With Heisman winning QB Jameis Winston’s returning for this season, the Seminoles looked poised to repeat as champions.

On the surface, things look fine for Florida State. They have beaten Clemson (without Winston) and Notre Dame on the way to an undefeated record. As the visual shows, the college football playoff committee ranked them 2nd in their first rankings.

However, numbers reveal another side of Florida State. Computer rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule aren’t impressed. For example, both my team rankings and the Sagarin predictor rank Florida State 20th.

Florida State doesn’t look better when we dig deeper into the numbers.

On this site, I take yards per play and adjust for schedule to rank offense and defense. Florida State shows up at 29th when combining offense and defense into a team ranking. On Football Outsiders, Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau combine both drive and play based statistics before making schedule adjustments. They rank Florida State 11th.

Good computer rankings do not consider Florida State a top 10 team.

And the Seminoles face a stern test against Louisville tonight.

Florida State’s offense against Louisville’s defense

Jameis Winston and the Florida State offense have been great this season, ranking 7th in my adjusted yards per play. This unit led the comeback over North Carolina State from a 17 point deficit to win that game.

However, they face Louisville’s 3rd ranked defense. This is an incredible performance for a unit that lost 3 of 4 defensive line starters from last season.

Moreover, Florida State has struggled with pass protection this season. Defenses have sacked the QB on 5.8% of pass attempts, right near the 6% average. Louisville’s defense has generated sacks on 9.3% of pass attempts. Expect a long night for Winston.

Florida State’s defense against Louisville’s offense

Remember how Winston and the offense saved Florida State’s ass against North Carolina State? How does a team get 17 points down to an ACC door mat?

The defense stinks.

Well, the defense doesn’t stink. They rank 34th in my adjusted yards per play. Some teams would kill for a defense that good. However, a rank of 34th means severe regression for a Florida State defense that finished the last 2 seasons in the top 5.

The pass rush has been a problem. Florida State has sacked the QB on 4.2% of pass attempts. Notre Dame’s Everett Golson had ample time to look downfield against the Seminole’s defense.

However, Louisville’s offense hasn’t been great this season. They rank 69th by my adjusted yards per play, and QB Will Garnder has completed 57% of his passes, a steep decline from the 70% Teddy Bridgewater put up last 2 seasons. The offensive line hasn’t helped Gardner much, as Louisville has allowed sacks on 9.1% of pass attempts.

Louisville did get receiver DeVante Parker back from injury against North Carolina State. The preseason All-ACC receiver caught 9 passes for 134 yards in his only game of the season.

Prediction for Florida State at Louisville

Florida State has the edge in this game because their defense is better than Louisville’s offense. The Power Rank’s ensemble predictions give Florida State a 1.5 point edge.

However, if Louisville QB Will Gardner gets some time to throw to DeVante Parker, they might put up enough points to pull the upset. My numbers give them a 45.5% chance to win.

The markets also see the strength in Louisville. The opening line of Florida State by 7 moved to 3.5 by this afternoon.

Ensemble predictions for week 10

These predictions are a collaboration with Mike Craig, my partner in the prediction service. We use rankings based on margin of victory and yards per play as well as data from the markets to compute the spread and total in every game.

In this sample of predictions, the first number is a point spread in which a negative number predicts a victory for the home team. The second number is the total points scored by both teams.

All of these math predictions are available to members.

Kentucky at Missouri: -10.2, 48.5.

Boston College at Virginia Tech: -3.0, 41.3.

Illinois at Ohio State: -21.2, 62.4.

Arizona at UCLA: -10.8, 65.6.

Rice at Florida International: 5.1, 48.8.

Tennessee at South Carolina: -5.5, 56.8.

Northwestern at Iowa: -2.9, 41.2.

Brigham Young at Middle Tennessee State: 6.1, 62.4.

Virginia at Georgia Tech: -4.6, 59.0.

San Diego State at Nevada: -2.2, 50.5.

Arkansas at Mississippi State: -12.4, 58.6.

Wisconsin at Rutgers: 10.8, 60.5.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State: -11.9, 51.7.

Indiana at Michigan: -5.3, 59.2.

Georgia State at Appalachian State: -6.8, 70.5.

East Carolina at Temple: 13.0, 64.1.

California at Oregon State: -0.9, 63.9.

North Carolina State at Syracuse: -4.6, 57.8.

Cincinnati at Tulane: 7.4, 58.9.

Air Force at Army: 3.7, 57.3.

Wyoming at Fresno State: -8.5, 60.4.

Alabama won’t win the BCS title, and 6 other predictions from college football analytics

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Over at Grantland, I wrote about 7 predictions from college football analytics for the remainder of the season.

I pulled out my entire bag of tricks of this one. In addition to looking at yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule, they asked me to estimate the impact of Missouri QB James Franklin on the SEC East. That required dusting off my Monte Carlo simulation for calculating division win probabilities.

Also, three of my data visualization accompany the writing, one of which appears above in modified form.

To read the entire article, which includes sections on Baylor, Clemson, and Louisville, click here.

3 Surprising Factors for the Final Four

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

Numbers are most interesting when they reveal hidden truths in sports. In getting ready for the Final Four, we were surprised by these findings.

Louisville’s Defensive Rebounding

With athletes like Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng, Louisville should rebound the ball extremely well. And they do on the offensive glass, pulling down 35% of rebounds compared with a 27.5% Division I average. However, Louisville is an average defensive rebounding team, allowing their opponents to grab 27.1% of rebounds. This could pose a problem against Wichita State, an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Why does Louisville have such a discrepancy between offensive and defensive rebounding? It could come from Louisville’s high pressure defense that forces turnovers. VCU is another team that plays this style of defense. They grabs 34% of offensive rebounds, confirming the athletic ability apparent from watching them play. However, VCU’s opponents get 29% of offensive rebounds, suggesting that a high pressure, pressing defense makes it difficult to grab defensive rebounds.

Wichita State’s Defense

Wichita State has allowed 91.2 points per 100 possessions, 36th best in the nation. However, when we adjust this raw number for strength of schedule, their defensive rank shoots up to 12th in the nation. This adjustment comes from the 9 of 10 Missouri Valley conference teams that have an offensive efficiency in the top half of Division I teams. The Shockers are predicted to allow 88.2 points per 100 possessions against an average team.

The Shockers are a tough team that slows the game down and control the boards. While The Power Rank gives Louisville a 6 point edge, Wichita State could prevail by getting hot early from 3 point range. Then their excellent defense could take over, preventing baskets and the opportunities for Louisville to set up the pressure defense. Moreover, Louisville is less likely to make up a deficit quickly, as they only shoot 32.7% (222nd in the nation) from 3 point range.

Syracuse’s Field Goal Shooting

From the raw statistics, Syracuse is not a good shooting team. From 2 point range, they hit 48.6% of their shots against Division I opponents, 125th in the nation. However, this doesn’t account for the strength of their schedule. In the Big East, 10 of 15 teams had a raw field goal percent defense in the top 100.

We use our ranking algorithm to adjust 2 point field goal percentage for strength of schedule. Syracuse moves up to 62nd in the nation. They’re not the best shooting team in the country. However, the Orangemen will get the job done if Michigan has one of their poor defensive games. The Power Rank has Michigan favored by about 2 points over Syracuse.

Win Probabilities

From our interactive bracket, the four teams have the following likelihood of winning the tourney.

Louisville, 43.9%
Michigan, 25.0%
Syracuse, 17.5%
Wichita State, 13.5%

What do you think? Let us know about your basketball insights in the comments below.

Thanks for reading.

Can The Big East Crash The National Championship Game?

By Dr. Ed Feng 4 Comments

Fast forward to early December and imagine this scenario.

Alabama has just won the SEC Championship game. The undefeated Crimson Tide claim a place in the National Championship game.

For their opponent, there are two options. The first is a one loss Oklahoma team. While the Sooners lost early to Kansas State, they have steamrolled every opponent since. Their resume includes a decisive win over Notre Dame.

The second option is an undefeated Big East team.

Right now, Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati are all undefeated. However, none of these teams have earned a ranking in our top 25. The thought of one of these teams in the National Championship game should make you a bit queasy.

What’s the likelihood these teams remain undefeated?

Rutgers (27), 9.5%.
Cincinnati (30), 3.2%.
Louisville (44), 3.0%.

I was a bit shocked that Rutgers has almost a 10% chance. The Scarlet Knights have Army and Kent State on their remaining schedule, making their road the easiest of these three teams. Their most difficult remaining game comes at Cincinnati.

Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling and winning game at Arkansas this year. It’s not their fault that the head coach got fired during the off season, throwing the program into turmoil.

Would an undefeated Big East team deserve a spot in the National Championship game? Please leave us a comment.

Thanks for reading.

How is The Power Rank bracket for Amy Nelson doing? A Final Four preview

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

After the first weekend of the tournament, the bracket I filled out for Amy Nelson wasn’t doing so hot. For example, I had Kentucky, Wichita State, UNLV and Duke in the Sweet Sixteen of the South region. Only one team survived the first round. We were all fully aware of this the last day we shot for the Full Nelson episode on The Power Rank. In the video, I even say we didn’t pick the bracket to win the first two rounds.

How things change in a week. The top teams in The Power Rank played up to form through the second week of the tourney, capped by Ohio State’s win over Syracuse, an overrated one seed. Overall, Amy’s bracket got 3 Final Four teams (Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas). Luck certainly played a part in this result, as the injury to North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall made life easier on Kansas. But we’ll take it. Rumor has it that Amy’s bracket is still hanging around in the SBNation pool despite the rough first week. It would certainly benefit from an Ohio State win over Kentucky in the championship game. How likely is that?

1. Ohio State versus Kansas. (0.84)
Ohio State (2) will beat Kansas (5) by 2.1 at a neutral site. Kansas has a 43% chance of beating Ohio State.

Ohio State is a high IQ basketball team, as their passing consistently got the ball into the lane against Syracuse’s zone. Kansas is a basketball team that relies on their abundance of talent. Tyshawn Taylor exemplifies this trait, as he traded ill advised shot for unbelievable shot the entire second half against North Carolina. Ohio State’s Aaron Craft is a defensive star that will make Taylor’s life difficult in the Final Four. This game also features over 500 pounds of mass banging in the paint, as Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger will face Kansas’s Thomas Robinson. Sullinger has a better supporting cast, tipping the odds to a 57% chance that Ohio State makes the championship game.

2. Kentucky versus Louisville. (0.71)
Kentucky (1) will beat Louisville (8) by 6.3 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 30% chance of beating Kentucky.

This week, a Kentucky and Louisville fan got into a fight over this game at a dialysis center. That’s how much this game means to the people of the state. Kentucky, our highest ranked team this year, relies less on the 3 point shot than last year, a trait that makes this team more consistent on offense. Louisville is first in adjusted defense in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. This is surprising since Rick Pitino isn’t known as a defensive coach. In fact, Louisville has been a top 10 defensive team in 5 out of the 10 years that Pitino has coached. If the defense can slow down Kentucky like they did earlier this year and the Cardinals can actually hit some shots, they have a chance to pull off the upset.

Championship Odds

1. Kentucky, 40.7%
2. Ohio State, 28.7%
3. Kansas, 18.8%
4. Louisville, 11.7%

Kentucky has the highest likelihood of winning it all. However, I picked Ohio State in Amy’s bracket because the Buckeyes are wildly undervalued in the eyes of the public. Only 4.5% of brackets at Yahoo had Ohio State as the champ. Our numbers give a 18% chance that Ohio State beats Kentucky in the championship game.

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—The Power Rank featured on Full Nelson, a SB Nation documentary.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

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