THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • College Basketball
    • NBA
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

Members: Is home advantage greater in the NFL playoffs?

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

This content is for members only

Filed Under: Home Court / Field Advantage, Member Content, National Football League

How to Beat the Vegas Line in the NBA Playoffs

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

ThePowerRank_NBA_HomecourtYou’re looking for an edge in betting on NBA playoff games. Preferably, this edge would beat the line at greater than a 52.4% rate, the lowest rate for profitable wagering. Moreover, it should hold over a large number of games, like more than 600.

But conventional wisdom says that it is a difficult time for finding an edge. Every gambler in the world has 82 or more games of statistics and video on each team. These guys have dissected the tendencies of any player that has stepped on an NBA court for more that 5 minutes.

However, there is a simple winning strategy in the NBA playoffs: bet on the home team.

Home Court Advantage in the NBA Playoffs

I stumbled upon this edge by accident.

I was looking at home court advantage in the NBA playoffs versus the regular season. This analysis requires a little finesse in the playoffs since the better team can play more home games. Over the last 10 years, home court advantage has been greater in the playoffs (4.5 points) than in the regular season (3.2 points). The visual above shows these results, and my post over at the Wages of Wins journal has all the details of the analysis.

Mike Beuoy of Betting Market Analytics saw the post and wondered whether the Vegas line adjusted for this larger home court advantage in the playoffs. He found that the line has favored home teams by a half a point more in the playoffs than the regular season over the last 10 seasons. This 0.5 points is much smaller than the actual 1.3 point discrepancy.

How to win 53.5% of the time over 683 games

This suggests that there might be an edge. Sure enough, Mike did a database search over at SportsDataBase.com to show that betting on the home team has won 53.5% of games since the 2004 through April 24, 2013. (Clicking on the link will give you up updated win percentage.)

The uncertainty in this win rate over 683 games is about 2%, so it’s not certain that this strategy wins greater than 52.4% of the time. However, a simple analysis shows there is a 72% likelihood this strategy is profitable.

I have not double checked this calculation myself. And I would not dump my life savings into this betting strategy going forward. But this 53.5% win rate is an interesting curiosity from the increased home court advantage in the NBA playoffs.

If you have additional insight, please leave a comment below.

Thanks for reading.

Filed Under: Basketball analytics, Home Court / Field Advantage, NBA

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • Members: Super Bowl analysis for Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
  • Podcast: Drew Dinsick on Predicting NFL Conference Championship Games
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championship, 2020 season
  • Podcast: Chris Andrews on Predicting the NFL Divisional Playoff
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Divisional Playoff, January 16-17, 2021

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • College Basketball
    • NBA
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy