You need an accurate assessment of college football teams. In particular, you need to know which teams have improved or declined in 2017 and adjust their rating appropriately.
Team rankings is a good start. The Power Rank’s college football team rankings take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule through an algorithm I developed.
However, points based rankings can be misleading. Turnovers can leave their imprint on the final score, as we will see in discussing Wisconsin below. As much as you might think teams control turnovers, analytics suggests randomness plays a big role in these pivotal plays.
To get an alternative assessment of college football teams, we’ll look at a different efficiency metric.
College football rankings by adjusted yards per play
Below, I show my team rankings based on yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule. To calculate these rankings, I first rank each offense and defense based on yards per play, a powerful efficiency upon which turnovers have little impact. The ranking algorithm makes the adjustments for schedule.
The offense and defense rankings get combined into one team rank in the list below. Unless otherwise noted, all rankings referred to in this article are offense, defense or team rankings by these adjusted yards per play.
The rankings below reflect data from only the 2017 season. As teams only have played at most 7 games, this reflects a small sample size. In addition, yards per play is not immune from randomness. That 50 yard pass play that went through the hands of the defender counts.
However, these rankings do provide insight into the rise and fall of teams. Here are the top 25 teams. The number gives an expected net yards per play difference against an average FBS opponent.
1. Oklahoma, 3.26
2. Oklahoma State, 2.95
3. Alabama, 2.93
4. Ohio State, 2.90
5. Georgia, 2.27
6. Washington, 2.11
7. Wisconsin, 2.09
8. Auburn, 2.01
9. Florida State, 1.98
10. Stanford, 1.84
11. Michigan, 1.84
12. Miami (FL), 1.79
13. Texas Tech, 1.78
14. Clemson, 1.73
15. UCF, 1.72
16. Notre Dame, 1.45
17. Wake Forest, 1.38
18. Oregon, 1.36
19. Penn State, 1.34
20. Louisville, 1.32
21. USC, 1.28
22. Washington State, 1.28
23. Michigan State, 1.22
24. North Carolina State, 1.16
25. LSU, 1.14
While this top 25 list has many stories, two teams stand out to me.
Wisconsin
The Badgers seemed to struggle this past weekend against Purdue. They won 17-9, but needed a last second defensive stand to a win a game in which they were favored by 17.
However, the final score doesn’t reflect what happened in the game. Wisconsin gained 494 yards on 6.96 yards per play. In contrast, Purdue had 221 yards on 4.02 yards per play.
Turnovers played a big role on the scoreboard, as the Badgers gave away the ball 3 times. Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor fumbled at the Purdue 4 yard line late in the game.
Wisconsin started the season 8th in my preseason rankings based on points. They have dropped 18th after 7 weeks of the season.
However, Wisconsin ranks 7th as a team by adjusted yards per play. The defense has been excellent as usual, but the gains come from the offense.
Wisconsin ranked 54th on offense in 2016 but have jumped to 9th over the first 7 weeks of 2017. Taylor has led a resurgent rush attack by gaining 7.8 yards per carry.
UCF
I laughed when I read Bill Connelly’s preview of UCF this preseason. He argued that everything head coach Scott Frost touches turns to gold based on his track record.
Dude, did you look at UCF’s offensive numbers last season? They ranked 115th in my adjusted yards per play. They ranked 117th in your own S&P+ numbers!
Then the season started, and UCF ended up first in my points based rankings after 4 weeks. I explained why this was a fluke, and why they would fall in the coming weeks.
UCF has fallen in my points based rankings, but only to 7th. They continue to plow through soft AAC competition.
The team rankings by adjusted yards per play suggests their improvement is real, as they rank 15th through 7 weeks of 2017. The offense has gone from the bottom of FBS to 6th this season, all with the same quarterback in McKenzie Milton.
The defense has slipped a bit. They ranked 19th last season in leading UCF to an unexpected bowl berth but has slipped to 49th this season.
Still, Bill is having the last laugh about Scott Frost.
Members of The Power Rank have access to these yards per play rankings broken down into offense and defense. You also get predictions for spreads and totals in college football and the NFL.
To learn more, click on the image or here.
The next 25 college football teams
Let’s look at the next 25 teams in my team rankings by adjusted yards per play.
26. TCU, 1.07
27. North Texas, 1.02
28. Mississippi State, 0.90
29. Utah, 0.79
30. Boise State, 0.69
31. Georgia Tech, 0.68
32. Mississippi, 0.68
33. Fresno State, 0.67
34. San Diego State, 0.66
35. Appalachian State, 0.65
36. Iowa State, 0.64
37. Arizona, 0.62
38. Purdue, 0.60
39. Texas, 0.47
40. Nebraska, 0.43
41. Indiana, 0.43
42. Kansas State, 0.41
43. UTSA, 0.41
44. Virginia Tech, 0.38
45. California, 0.37
46. UCLA, 0.37
47. Northern Illinois, 0.32
48. Southern Miss, 0.31
49. Minnesota, 0.31
50. UNLV, 0.31
This leads us to one of the best stories in college football this season.
Fresno State
How the hell is Fresno State 33rd?
The Bulldogs struggled through an awful 1-11 season in 2016, as coach Tim DeRuyter got fired during the season. They brought in former Cal coach Jeff Tedford to save the program.
Tedford had some brilliant offenses at Cal. However, it didn’t look he could do too much with a unit that ranked dead last in the FBS in 2016.
Fresno State started the season 1-2, with two losses to playoff contenders Alabama and Washington. Then Tedford turned to QB Marcus McMaryion, a player who transferred from Oregon State in August.
The offense has been stellar in winning 3 games since the change. Fresno State has gained 7.1 and 8.9 yards per play against Nevada and New Mexico respectively. The offense ranks 23rd based on data in 2017.
The offensive coordinator also plays a role in this story. Tedford brought in Kalen DeBoer, who had worked miracles in getting Eastern Michigan’s offense to rank 67th in 2016.
Eastern Michigan’s offense has fallen off a cliff in 2017 (120th), while Fresno State has surged.
Can Fresno State keep it up? Remember, these rankings are based on a small sample size, and Fresno State thumped some bad defenses in Nevada and New Mexico. You have reason to doubt whether a QB that couldn’t win the job at Oregon State can keep Fresno State as a top 25 offense.
These are the rest of the team rankings by adjusted yards per play.
51. West Virginia, 0.30
52. Florida, 0.26
53. Memphis, 0.22
54. South Carolina, 0.19
55. New Mexico State, 0.18
56. Maryland, 0.15
57. Colorado State, 0.14
58. Northwestern, 0.14
59. Buffalo, 0.14
60. Iowa, 0.12
61. Missouri, 0.10
62. Middle Tennessee State, 0.10
63. Houston, 0.09
64. Arizona State, 0.08
65. Texas A&M, 0.04
66. Florida Atlantic, 0.04
67. SMU, 0.03
68. Syracuse, 0.02
69. Virginia, 0.01
70. Troy, -0.08
71. New Mexico, -0.11
72. Idaho, -0.14
73. Ohio, -0.19
74. Duke, -0.21
75. South Florida, -0.22
76. Colorado, -0.24
77. Navy, -0.31
78. Marshall, -0.35
79. North Carolina, -0.36
80. Arkansas, -0.37
81. Tennessee, -0.38
82. Vanderbilt, -0.42
83. Boston College, -0.53
84. Baylor, -0.55
85. Oregon State, -0.57
86. Eastern Michigan, -0.58
87. Toledo, -0.61
88. Kentucky, -0.65
89. UAB, -0.69
90. Utah State, -0.72
91. Florida International, -0.81
92. Rutgers, -0.82
93. Louisiana Tech, -0.82
94. Air Force, -0.85
95. Arkansas State, -0.85
96. Brigham Young, -0.89
97. South Alabama, -0.90
98. Western Michigan, -0.94
99. Pittsburgh, -0.97
100. Connecticut, -0.97
101. Wyoming, -0.99
102. Hawaii, -1.02
103. Miami (OH), -1.04
104. Nevada, -1.06
105. Cincinnati, -1.11
106. Massachusetts, -1.14
107. Kansas, -1.15
108. Tulane, -1.16
109. Coastal Carolina, -1.17
110. Central Michigan, -1.19
111. Temple, -1.22
112. San Jose State, -1.25
113. Tulsa, -1.33
114. Illinois, -1.37
115. Bowling Green, -1.40
116. Army, -1.46
117. Louisiana Monroe, -1.51
118. Akron, -1.56
119. Georgia State, -1.67
120. Old Dominion, -1.68
121. Georgia Southern, -1.69
122. Louisiana Lafayette, -1.70
123. Charlotte, -1.83
124. Western Kentucky, -1.93
125. Kent State, -1.99
126. Texas State, -2.08
127. Rice, -2.09
128. East Carolina, -2.14
129. Ball State, -2.27
130. UTEP, -2.40