At the knock out stage of Euro 2016, it’s any country’s trophy.
These win probabilities come from my world football/soccer rankings, which performed favorably in predicting matches according to an academic study.
The Economist cited this study in a recent article.
A few notes on the results.
- Germany is the top European country at 2nd in my rankings, but they haven’t impressed so far. In addition, their back four looks vulnerable.
- France has home field advantage, which gives them the largest win probability at 28.9%.
- Belgium has their golden generation of talent (8th in my rankings). However, they always seems to disappoint.
- Italy has a rich tradition of football excellence. However, this seems like the least skilled Italian team I’ve ever seen.
- England? Nah… or maybe their poor performance in big tourneys is bad luck.
Here are the win probabilities for Euro 2016 at the knock out stage for all 16 teams.
1. France, 28.9%.
2. Germany, 16.9%.
3. Belgium, 16.5%.
4. Spain, 9.6%.
5. England, 6.0%.
6. Portugal, 5.0%.
7. Croatia, 4.8%.
8. Switzerland, 3.9%.
9. Italy, 2.5%.
10. Poland, 2.1%.
11. Wales, 1.1%.
12. Hungary, 1.0%.
13. Iceland, 0.8%.
14. Slovakia, 0.4%.
15. Northern Ireland, 0.4%.
16. Republic of Ireland, 0.3%.