THE POWER RANK

Podcast: NFL Injuries, College Football Playoff Probabilities and Mailbag

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This episode of The Football Analytics Show comes in 3 parts.

In part 1, I ask how many points RB Ezekiel Elliott, who got suspended for 6 games, is worth. How does this compare with QB Aaron Rodgers?

In part 2, David joins me to discuss my college football playoff probabilities.

  • Why does Penn State have the highest probability?
  • Why is Georgia so low?
  • Can Notre Dame survive their remaining schedule?

In part 3, I answer questions from listeners. Topics include data sources, games with the most value and how to get a prediction from adjusted yards per play.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

Analysis of 2016 College Football Playoff Semi-final games

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Let’s not coronate Alabama champion just yet. Over on Bleacher Report, I wrote about the College Football Playoff from an analytics perspective.

Alabama is the clear favorite, and I even like their chances to cover two touchdowns against Washington in the first semi-final.

But that dang football bounces in funny ways sometimes. A few turnovers here, maybe some subpar play from Nick Saban’s team, you never know.

Ohio State and Clemson features some interesting match ups, as both teams have their strengths on offense and defense.

To check out my analysis, click here.

Win probabilities for the college football playoff, 2016

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With the field set for the college football playoff, these are my member numbers for the semi-final games.

  • Alabama will beat Washington by 9.1 points (76.1 percent win probability).
  • Ohio State will beat Clemson by 2.7 points (58.5 percent win probability).

For the championship game, these are odds for possible match ups.

  • Alabama will beat Ohio State by 7.1 points (71.1 percent win probability)
  • Alabama will beat Clemson by 9.8 points (77.7 percent win probability).
  • Ohio State will beat Washington by 2.0 points (56.3 percent win probability).
  • Washington will beat Clemson by 0.7 points (52.2 percent win probability).

A lot more analysis is forth coming.

Numbers for all bowl games are available to members. To learn more, click here.

College football playoff probabilities before championship week, 2016

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screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-10-17-34-amOver at Bleacher Report, I wrote about my final college football playoff odds for the season. Alabama, Clemson and Washington are in with wins in their conference championship games, and the Big 12 is out.

There remains some uncertainty for the remaining top teams, most of which reside in the Big Ten. My article discusses the following:

  • Ohio State is not a lock, but it would take a lot to move them out of the top 4.
  • Michigan isn’t dead just yet.
  • How in the world is the champion of the conference with 4 of the top 7 teams on the outside looking in?

To check out the article, click here.

College football playoff probabilities after week 12, 2016

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screen-shot-2016-11-23-at-10-33-52-amOver at Bleacher Report, I posted my odds for each team to make the college football playoff. This week’s article looks at:

  • Michigan at Ohio State, a critical game in the playoff picture.
  • With 4 teams in the top 7, the chance that the Big Ten gets two teams.
  • Apple Cup between Washington and Washington State.
  • The USC dilemma, since the Trojans are generating much debate.

To read the article on Bleacher Report, click here.