THE POWER RANK

Bleacher Report college football playoff articles after week 12

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Screen Shot 2015-11-25 at 11.11.25 AMOver on Bleacher Report, I predicted the committee rankings on Saturday night and then calculated playoff odds based on the actual committee rankings.

Oklahoma gave me a hard time with the predicted rankings. They barely beat TCU, so I kept them 5th behind Notre Dame and Iowa.

The committee decided they liked Bake Mayfield’s hair and jumped Oklahoma to 3rd ahead of Notre Dame and Iowa. They probably deserve the spot, but there’s not much reason behind the jump.

To check out the latest probabilities for each team to make the playoff, click here.

College football playoff predictions after week 11

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Screen Shot 2015-11-20 at 9.32.33 AMLast weekend, a number of top 10 teams lost, and I thought this ended their playoff hopes.

As a Stanford alum, their loss to Oregon was particularly crushing. It gave the Cardinal two losses, and almost everyone thought the Pac-12’s playoff hopes were over.

Not the playoff committee. Stanford dropped to 11th, certainly within striking range of the top 4 by the end of the season.

I predicted a much bigger drop for Stanford in my Sunday morning Bleacher Report column that projects the committee rankings. The same goes for Baylor, Utah and LSU.

Stanford (24%) and Baylor (20%) are very much alive for a playoff spot. For all of my calculations, click here.

I should note that I wrote the Baylor section before hearing that QB Jarrett Stidham might not play against Oklahoma State.

Here are the top 25 of the ensemble rankings (available to members) that drive these playoff odds calculations for Bleacher Report.

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma
5. TCU
6. Clemson
7. Mississippi
8. Oregon
9. Stanford
10. Notre Dame
11. Georgia
12. LSU
13. Florida State
14. Florida
15. UCLA
16. USC
17. Michigan State
18. Mississippi State
19. Wisconsin
20. Auburn
21. Arkansas
22. Oklahoma State
23. Michigan
24. North Carolina
25. Tennessee

It’s not an error that Oregon is in the top 10 or that Iowa doesn’t appear in the top 25.

College football playoff probabilities after week 10

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Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 9.49.02 AMWill your team make the College Football Playoff?

Over on Bleacher Report, I posted my probabilities for each team based on the current committee rankings and simulations of the season. Clemson has the highest chance after their win over Florida State, while Stanford edges out Notre Dame for the fourth highest probability.

To check out all the numbers on Bleacher Report, click here.

It’s also work checking the same calculation by FiveThirtyEight. They have Baylor a bit higher and LSU a bit lower, but otherwise the two sets of calculations give roughly the same results.

My article on Bleacher Report also looks at other issues:

  • Does Notre Dame necessarily make it if they win out?
  • How the hell did Iowa jump Baylor in the rankings?
  • How does new Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham change their odds?
  • Stanford can’t overlook Oregon this weekend

To read the article, click here.

I also did this calculation last week, which I forgot to post on the blog. To check out the numbers after the first committee rankings, click here.

Predicted playoff committee rankings after week 10

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Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 12.09.41 PMI didn’t love how my predicted committee rankings turned out last week.

Last year, the committee ranked teams by losses in their first rankings of the season. So I based my predicted rankings on that idea.

However, the committee reversed course this year and ranked one loss Alabama and Notre Dame ahead of a number of undefeated teams. Both teams had a close, fluky loss to top 25 team, so it does kind of make sense.

This week, I use the committee rankings from last week to predict how things change. Alabama almost certainly takes the second spot after beating LSU. But we’ll see how far LSU drops.

Clemson holds onto the top spot, deservedly so. Their next test might come on New Year’s Eve in the playoff.

To check out the predicted rankings and article, click here.

Predicted college football playoff rankings after week 9, 2015

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Screen Shot 2015-11-02 at 3.48.41 PMHow will the college football playoff committee rank teams this week? I’ve been posting my predictions all season, but there’s a right answer this week.

Last year, the committee sorted teams by losses in their opening rankings. This led me to make some adjustments to this week’s rankings, especially for undefeated Iowa and Oklahoma State.

Undefeated Memphis and Houston also caused some problems. It’s tough to know where the committee with rank these non Power 5 teams, so I put them behind the one loss teams.

To check out my predictions, click here.

We’ll see how these predicted rankings do Tuesday night at 7pm Eastern.