THE POWER RANK

The top 10 college basketball teams in 2015 by Sweet 16 appearances

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tom_izzoWhich school has the best college basketball program?

It’s an easy question to answer with only analytics. We could take an average rating from computer rankings over the past 10 years to find the best programs.

However, college basketball is a sport that almost entirely relies on the postseason for its popularity. Any legitimate ranking must consider success in the NCAA tournament.

To balance analytics with post season success, I propose ranking programs by Sweet 16 appearances over the past 10 years. With such a long time period, it’s difficult for a non-elite team by the numbers to have enough tournament success to make this list. The top 10 below includes all the traditional college basketball powers.

In addition, the Sweet 16 seems like an appropriate balance between making the tournament and winning the entire contest. It’s not enough to just make the field every year, but there’s too much randomness in winning the tourney. In the past 10 years, only two programs have won more than one tournament (Florida and Connecticut), and neither made the tournament in 2015.

To break ties among programs with the same number of Sweet 16 appearances over the last 10 years, I looked at appearances in the past 9 seasons. If this didn’t break the tie, I looked at successively shorter time periods until one program came out ahead.

The rankings below show the top 10 college basketball programs by Sweet 16 appearances. Only one program had 7 appearances over 10 years, which shows the parity in college basketball. Even the best programs have years in which they lose before the second weekend of the tournament.

Teams that missed the cut

Gonzaga has made the tournament each of the past 10 years but did not make this list. While they have become a brand name program in college basketball, Gonzaga has struggled in the tournament with only 3 Sweet 16 appearances.

Ohio State and UCLA have 5 Sweet 16 appearances each but lost out to the teams below based on the tie breaker method. Ohio State hasn’t make the second weekend of the tournament the last two years, while UCLA had 3 straight appearances early in the 10 year window.

10. Xavier

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Xavier is the only program in the top 10 not from a power conference. Sean Miller led the Musketeers to the first two Sweet 16 appearances, while Chris Mack has reached the Sweet 16 in half of his 6 seasons.

9. Wisconsin

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2008

Bo Ryan has made the NCAA tournament in each of his 14 years as Wisconsin’s coach. They have made the Sweet 16 in half of the past 10 years, and the 2015 team led by Frank Kaminsky might be the best of all these teams.

8. Arizona

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2009

Sean Miller coached Arizona for the last 4 Sweet 16 appearances. However, Arizona only had 1 appearance between 2006 and 2010 as the program transitioned from long time coach Lute Olsen to Miller.

Arizona has a great team in 2015, and I think they have the best chance of beating Kentucky should they play in the Final Four.

7. Kentucky

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010

With their undefeated season so far in 2014-2015, one might expect Kentucky to be higher on this list. However, the Wildcats struggled in the early years of this 10 year period as they transitioned from Tubby Smith to Billy Gillispie (whoa, remember him?) to John Calipari.

Even within the last 5 years, Kentucky had a down year in 2013 when they lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Even the best programs can’t escape the vagaries of luck in this era of one and done players.

6. Florida

6 Sweet 16’s: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006

Billy Donovan has had tremendous success at Florida, winning back to back championships in 2006 and 2007. However, it doesn’t always run smoothly in Gainesville. Florida didn’t make the tournament in 2008 and 2009 when the stars from the championship teams left. They also didn’t make the tournament this year.

5. Duke

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006

Back in the Christian Laettner years, Duke made four straight Final Four appearances and won two championships. Even Mike Krzyzewski can’t duplicate that success in this era of parity and one and done players.

Duke has fallen victim to two of the biggest Round of 64 upsets recently, as they lost to 15 seed Lehigh in 2012 and 14 seed Mercer in 2014.

4. Kansas

6 Sweet 16’s: 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

Bill Self has an incredible streak of 11 straight Big 12 regular season championships. He also hasn’t made the Sweet 16 the past two seasons. In 2015, Kansas lost Wichita State, a program in their own state they refuse to schedule during the regular season.

3. North Carolina

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

I thought North Carolina would be lower on this list, as Roy Williams has had some subpar teams in recent memory. North Carolina didn’t make the tournament in 2010, and they didn’t make the Sweet 16 in 2013 and 2014. However, they still have 6 appearances over the last 10 years and squeak ahead of Kansas with their Sweet 16 appearance in 2015.

2. Louisville

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2009, 2008

Rick Pitino has the Louisville program in great shape, as they almost always feature a top 10 defense by adjusted points per possession. However, their offense has been the problem in 2015. If they can find enough offense in the soft East Region this year, they could make another Final Four appearance.

1. Michigan State

7 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Tom Izzo’s teams continue to perform well in March. In 2015, Michigan State beat Virginia to make the Sweet 16 for the 7th time over the last 10 years, tops in the country. I doubt Michigan State would have the highest rating averaged over the past 10 seasons, but they continue to have success in the tournament.

Billy Donovan is a bad tournament coach

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billy_donovan_mopyFlorida hired Bill Donovan as coach in 1996. But ten years into his tenure as coach, his tournament record looked poor. Check out this five year stretch of appearances.

  • 2001, lost in 2nd round as a 3 seed
  • 2002, lost in 1st round as a 5 seed
  • 2003, lost in 2nd round as a 2 seed
  • 2004, lost in 1st round as a 5 seed
  • 2005, lost in 2nd round as a 4 seed

You may remember their first round game in 2002. Creighton guard Terrell Taylor hit a cross over, Jordanesque jumper to pull off the 12 over 5 upset.

You can hear the pundits right now as the Gators entered the 2006 tournament.

“Billy Donovan isn’t a good tourney coach.”

“He just doesn’t get his players ready for the moment.”

“Look at how he underperformed the last 5 years as such a high seed each year.”

Florida won consecutive national titles in 2006 and 2007. The pundits shut the fuck up.

The curse of small sample size

You should never make judgements on coaches in a small sample size of tournament games. Florida played 158 games over those 5 years and won enough games to never get seeded lower than 5th. How can you restrict your judgement of Billy Donovan to 5 of those games?

A naive athletic director might have fired Billy Donovan after 2005. Each year, other athletic directors make hires based on success in the tourney, such as Andy Enfield at USC after his run with Florida Gulf Coast last season.

So next March, you’ll hear all kinds of talk about how Michigan State’s Tom Izzo is a great tournament coach. His Spartans just lost an Elite 8 game to Connecticut, a game no thought they should lose.

Next March, you’ll hear even more chatter about how Pittsburgh’s Jamie Dixon stinks it up in the tourney each year. However, Dixon consistently fields good teams at Pittsburgh. They will break through one of these years.

Here’s the truth: Tom Izzo and Jamie Dixon are both great coaches. So is Billy Donovan.

Can Florida win the Final Four in 2014?

After 3 straight years of failures in the Elite 8, Florida advanced to the Final Four this season. It’s not his most talented team. The most highly touted NBA prospect, Chris Walker, barely plays after missing time early this season.

But the Gators bring the defense every game, ranked 2nd in my efficiency rankings that adjust points per possession for strength of schedule. Point guard Scottie Wilbekin gets all the headlines, but watch out for his back court mate Michael Frazier, a 45% shooter from 3 point range.

Their opponent Connecticut also brings the defense, ranked 11th in my efficiency rankings. On offense, point guard Shabazz Napier runs the show, but watch out for their shooters. They don’t take a lot of 3 point shots, but they hit 39% of them. Niels Giffey was hitting over 50% of his 3 pointers until he went 0-5 against Michigan State. Connecticut needs him or DeAndre Daniels to hit some shots to knock off Florida.

Florida has a 66% chance to beat Connecticut (predicted spread of 5.5).