THE POWER RANK

3 Surprising Factors for the Final Four

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The Power Rank Interactive Bracket for the Final 4Numbers are most interesting when they reveal hidden truths in sports. In getting ready for the Final Four, we were surprised by these findings.

Louisville’s Defensive Rebounding

With athletes like Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng, Louisville should rebound the ball extremely well. And they do on the offensive glass, pulling down 35% of rebounds compared with a 27.5% Division I average. However, Louisville is an average defensive rebounding team, allowing their opponents to grab 27.1% of rebounds. This could pose a problem against Wichita State, an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Why does Louisville have such a discrepancy between offensive and defensive rebounding? It could come from Louisville’s high pressure defense that forces turnovers. VCU is another team that plays this style of defense. They grabs 34% of offensive rebounds, confirming the athletic ability apparent from watching them play. However, VCU’s opponents get 29% of offensive rebounds, suggesting that a high pressure, pressing defense makes it difficult to grab defensive rebounds.

Wichita State’s Defense

Wichita State has allowed 91.2 points per 100 possessions, 36th best in the nation. However, when we adjust this raw number for strength of schedule, their defensive rank shoots up to 12th in the nation. This adjustment comes from the 9 of 10 Missouri Valley conference teams that have an offensive efficiency in the top half of Division I teams. The Shockers are predicted to allow 88.2 points per 100 possessions against an average team.

The Shockers are a tough team that slows the game down and control the boards. While The Power Rank gives Louisville a 6 point edge, Wichita State could prevail by getting hot early from 3 point range. Then their excellent defense could take over, preventing baskets and the opportunities for Louisville to set up the pressure defense. Moreover, Louisville is less likely to make up a deficit quickly, as they only shoot 32.7% (222nd in the nation) from 3 point range.

Syracuse’s Field Goal Shooting

From the raw statistics, Syracuse is not a good shooting team. From 2 point range, they hit 48.6% of their shots against Division I opponents, 125th in the nation. However, this doesn’t account for the strength of their schedule. In the Big East, 10 of 15 teams had a raw field goal percent defense in the top 100.

We use our ranking algorithm to adjust 2 point field goal percentage for strength of schedule. Syracuse moves up to 62nd in the nation. They’re not the best shooting team in the country. However, the Orangemen will get the job done if Michigan has one of their poor defensive games. The Power Rank has Michigan favored by about 2 points over Syracuse.

Win Probabilities

From our interactive bracket, the four teams have the following likelihood of winning the tourney.

  • Louisville, 43.9%
  • Michigan, 25.0%
  • Syracuse, 17.5%
  • Wichita State, 13.5%

What do you think? Let us know about your basketball insights in the comments below.

Thanks for reading.

Check Out The 2013 Interactive Bracket for March Madness

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The Power Rank calculates the 416 win probabilities for March Madness, 2012.With every passing day in March, college basketball heats up that much more. Basketball junkies like us only have 16 days left until the committee announces the field of 68.

However, we couldn’t wait that long to see who would win the tourney. We took Jerry Palm’s bracket predictions from yesterday and calculated the win probabilities for each team to advance through each round. These odds are based on our college basketball team rankings, which give a win probability for each game.

We show these numbers in our interactive bracket (click here to open it up in a new tab). To unveil the win probabilities for a team to advance, hover over the team name. To discover the odds that a team wins a game, hover over the circle for that game.

Last year, Amy Nelson of SB Nation made this awesome video about our analytics and this interactive visualization.

You should draw your own conclusion from this year’s numbers. These 3 things jumped out at us.

Florida has largest chance of winning the tourney

What? The Gator team that has dropped 3 games in a weak SEC conference? The team that’s only 11th in the AP poll has a 12.8% chance of winning the tourney?

Florida is the top team in our college basketball rankings. Despite being more than a point and half better than even Indiana, they have lost 5 games this year because of their love affair with the 3 point shot. Over 40% of their shots come from behind the arc. Most nights, they shoot pretty well, hitting 38.4% of their 3’s for the season. However, they can also die by the 3.

Florida’s chance at winning the tourney would be even higher had Palm not put them in the Region of Death. The East region has Duke, Michigan and Syracuse in addition to Florida, all top 10 teams in The Power Rank. The committee takes geography into account when determining the bracket. Since most of the best college basketball teams are east of the Mississippi River, the bracket has regions of vastly differing strength.

Pittsburgh in the West

If the East is the Region of Death, then the West is the Region of Eternal Life. Due to geography considerations, the West has Gonzaga, New Mexico and Arizona as the top 3 seeds. While our numbers love Gonzaga (#3), New Mexico and Arizona are 19th and 15th respectively. One would expect the worst 2 and 3 seed to have a rank of 8th and 12th.

This unbalanced bracket opens the door for Pittsburgh, the 5 seed in the West. After an uncharacteristically poor season last year, the Panthers have surged back on the national scene with coach Jamie Dixon. Ranked 12th in The Power Rank, they have a 10.9% chance of making the Final 4 out of the West. It’s not as high as Gonzaga’s 25.3% chance, but it’s higher than most “experts” will give them.

First round upsets

The Madness of March starts that first Thursday (or Friday on a weird year) of the tourney when higher seeded teams get upset by double digit seeded teams. In Palm’s bracket, Oregon and Butler look most vulnerable.

Oregon has been overrated all year, rising to 19th in the most recent AP poll but only 49th in The Power Rank. They got exposed last night at Colorado, losing by 23. Wichita State has a 55% chance of upsetting Oregon in the first round.

Most people remember Butler for their consecutive championship game appearances from a few years back. However, this year’s team doesn’t have the same defensive toughness as those teams. Middle Tennessee State, who was our highest ranked team not to make last year’s tourney, has a 51% chance of knocking off Butler in the first round.

Interactive Bracket

What jumps out at you in our numbers? (Here’s that link to the interactive bracket again.) Let us know in the comments.

Thanks for reading.