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Sweet Sixteen Predictions, 2011 Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

We were out dinner during the Pittsburgh Butler game last Saturday night. As the clock wound down, I did what any self respecting Dad would do and picked up my son out of his high chair so he could watch the game. Eli would have none of it. All through the last ten seconds of the game, which saw an amazing play for the go ahead layup by Butler and two controversial fouls, Eli kicked and fussed, clearly upset about my insistence that he watched this game. He didn’t seem to understand that he would ask me about this night a decade from now. Really, people thought Pitt was a bunch of chokers before Jamie Dixon’s team won a national championship? After the game, we headed out to my mother-in-law’s van to head home. Since Eli crawled into the back seat to play with some toys, I headed back to the restaurant to use the restroom. As soon as I left, he crawls up into his car seat and says “Bye, Daddy.” So much for showing my two year son the glory of March Madness.

In the Round of 64 and 32, The Power Rank went 24 for 42 against the line with 1 push and 5 games in which our prediction was too close to the line. That’s a 57.1% winning percentage. We found the wins by Butler, Michigan, Marquette and George Mason in the Round of 64 particularly gratifying, as The Power Rank called these winners while Vegas listed them as underdogs. However, we were humbled by the spectacular play of VCU and Florida State on Sunday night. Here are our Mountain West flavored predictions for the Sweet Sixteen:

San Diego State will beat Connecticut by 2.0

Duke will beat Arizona by 6.8

Brigham Young will beat Florida by 2.4, upset by lower seed.

Wisconsin will beat Butler by 4.6

Kansas will beat Richmond by 6.7

Florida State will beat VCU by 0.1

North Carolina will beat Marquette by 1.4

Ohio State will beat Kentucky by 5.1

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, Butler Bulldogs, Duke Blue Devils, Pittsburgh Panthers

Predictions for 2nd Round of 2011 NCAA Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Here are the predicted outcomes for this weekend’s games. The only upset is Washington over North Carolina by a slim half point. Can the veteran Husky squad beat the young Tar Heels? Otherwise, Kansas and Pittsburgh look like the most likely 1 seed to go down this round, although they are predicted to win by 4.9 over Illinois and 6.5 over Butler respectively. Last year, Kansas looked sluggish in a first round win over Lehigh and then went down to Northern Iowa in the second round. This year, Boston University was only down 4 at the half to Kansas. As for Pittsburgh versus Butler, it won’t be a pretty game, as both teams are well known for grinding out wins defensively. Butler has not had the greatest season, and guard Shelvin Mack looks like he lost his jumper in the off season, but the Bulldogs still gutted out the win against Old Dominion on Thursday.

Richmond will beat Morehead State by 3.0

San Diego State will beat Temple by 5.5

Connecticut will beat Cincinnati by 1.9

Kentucky will beat West Virginia by 3.0

Florida will beat UCLA by 2.9

Pittsburgh will beat Butler by 6.5

Brigham Young will beat Gonzaga by 4.9

Wisconsin will beat Kansas State by 4.1

Purdue will beat VCU by 7.9

Kansas will beat Illinois by 4.9

Notre Dame will beat Florida State by 5.2

Texas will beat Arizona by 4.9

Duke will beat Michigan by 7.1

Syracuse will beat Marquette by 1.5

Ohio State will beat George Mason by 8.2

Washington will beat North Carolina by 0.5

Predictions were 16 of 29 against the line in the first round for a 55% winning percentage.

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball, Kansas Jayhawks, North Carolina Tar Heels, Pittsburgh Panthers, Washington Huskies

NCAA Tournament 2011, First Weekend Preview

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

No school has dominated college basketball quite like UCLA. Starting in 1964, they won 10 of the next 12 NCAA tournaments under legendary coach John Wooden. The program returned to glory by winning the 1995 tournament, which made them an easy villian to root against as the 1996 tournament began. UCLA faced Princeton in the first round. The Ivy league kids with no athletic scholarships played with the champs all night. Finally, in their last possession, with the game tied, they executed perfectly and made a simple layup. 43-41 Princeton, and people everywhere erupted. This is what makes the first round of the NCAA tournament so special. No other event has the power to make millions of Americans scream so passionately for some priviledged kids from the east coast establishment.

The first round of this year’s tournament will hopefully feature similar excitement. For games with teams seeded higher than 10, The Power Rank predicts that the following games have the highest likelihood of an upset.

Marquette (11) over Xavier (6)

Utah State (12) over Kansas State (5)

Richmond (12) over Vanderbilt (5)

Belmont (13) over Wisconsin (4)

Missouri (11) over Cincinnati (6)

Gonzaga (11) over St. John’s (6)

Ranked 24th in The Power Rank, Marquette is a solid team that somehow ended up with an 11 seed. While we would never tell the selection committee what to do, it seems like a team who plays in a brutally tough Big East conference with 11 teams in the tournament and only lost to tournament teams out of conference should get a higher seed. We predict that Marquette will beat Xavier by 2.6 points. Utah State, ranked 21st in The Power Rank, got a 12 seed because the selection committee didn’t think too highly of their marque win over St. Mary’s, a team that didn’t make the field of 68. Utah State plays an old fashion, pass and look for a good shot style of basketball, and they certainly have the firepower to knock off an erratic Kansas State team. While the remaining 4 teams above aren’t predicted to win, Richmond, Belmont, Missouri and Gonzaga should give their higher seeded opponents all kinds of trouble.

Moving on to the 2nd round, we note that at least one double digit seed wins two games and makes the Sweet Sixteen each year. Who will it be this year? Marquette with their 11 seed is a good bet, as they would likely play Syracuse in the second round. Marquette beat Syracuse by 6 at home during the regular season. We also like odds of a double digit seed coming out of the Tucson region that features both Utah State (12) and Belmont (13). Belmont, a small school in Nashville, Tennessee, will run eleven guys out on the court and fire up threes in their first round game against Wisconsin. A win might result in a second round game with Utah State, which would guarentee a double digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

Finally, consider the Michigan State Spartans and coach Tom Izzo, a program that always overachieves in the tournament. After beginning the season highly regarded in the polls, they consistently underachieved and finally hit rock bottom in late January as a key player was suspended for the rest of the season and they lost by 20 at Iowa. However, this is the same team that traveled to Durham and gave Duke all they could handle. The Power Rank sees their first round game with UCLA as a toss up and predicts a close 2.5 point loss to Florida in the second round. That’s a reasonable path to the Sweet Sixteen for the 10th seeded Spartans.

One last word about filling out your brackets. While The Power Rank is a useful tool, picking only the higher ranked teams in every game is unlikely to win your pool. For any pool with more than 10 people, someone is going to get lucky. Maybe your friend’s brother who doesn’t know that a basketball is round but somehow picks an 11th seeded Washington in the Sweet Sixteen because the campus is pretty. So get a little creative in making your picks. Last year, my friend Jeremy Jones picked the higher ranked teams if The Power Rank predicted a margin of victory greater than two. If the point spread was less than two, Jones called the upset. Hmm, Princeton is back in this year’s tournament. In a neutral court playoff against Harvard this Saturday, they hit a buzzer beating shot that lifted them to a one point win. That might be the karma a team needs to win a few games in the tournament.

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, Belmont Bruins, College Basketball, Michigan State Spartans, Princeton Tigers, UCLA Bruins, Wisconsin Badgers

Early First Round NCAA Tournament Prediction 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Here’s an early look at The Power Rank predictions for the First Four and the opening round of the NCAA tournament. We’ll update this after the four games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Clemson will beat UAB by 3.1

North Carolina Asheville will beat Arkansas Little Rock by 5.1

USC will beat VCU by 3.5

UTSA will beat Alabama State by 4.8

Louisville will beat Morehead State by 6.9

Vanderbilt will beat Richmond by 1.0

Cincinnati will beat Missouri by 1.4

Connecticut will beat Bucknell by 7.3

San Diego State will beat Northern Colorado by 11.7

Temple will beat Penn State by 1.0

Kentucky will beat Princeton by 9.5

Butler will beat Old Dominion by 1.0

Florida will beat UCSB by 9.4

Brigham Young will beat Wofford by 9.9

St. John’s will beat Gonzaga by 1.5

Utah State will beat Kansas State by 1.5, upset by lower seed.

Wisconsin will beat Belmont by 1.2

UCLA will beat Michigan State by 0.1

Notre Dame will beat Akron by 10.9

Texas A&M will beat Florida State by 0.3

Kansas will beat Boston University by 16.1

Purdue will beat St. Peter’s by 13.0

Illinois will beat UNLV by 1.5, upset by lower seed.

Texas will beat Oakland by 7.1

Michigan will beat Tennessee by 0.6

Arizona will beat Memphis by 5.9

Duke will beat Hampton by 17.5

George Mason will beat Villanova by 0.5

North Carolina will beat Long Island by 7.0

Marquette will beat Xavier by 2.6, upset by lower seed.

Washington will beat Georgia by 6.0

Syracuse will beat Indiana State by 9.7

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball

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