THE POWER RANK

The top 10 college basketball teams in 2015 by Sweet 16 appearances

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tom_izzoWhich school has the best college basketball program?

It’s an easy question to answer with only analytics. We could take an average rating from computer rankings over the past 10 years to find the best programs.

However, college basketball is a sport that almost entirely relies on the postseason for its popularity. Any legitimate ranking must consider success in the NCAA tournament.

To balance analytics with post season success, I propose ranking programs by Sweet 16 appearances over the past 10 years. With such a long time period, it’s difficult for a non-elite team by the numbers to have enough tournament success to make this list. The top 10 below includes all the traditional college basketball powers.

In addition, the Sweet 16 seems like an appropriate balance between making the tournament and winning the entire contest. It’s not enough to just make the field every year, but there’s too much randomness in winning the tourney. In the past 10 years, only two programs have won more than one tournament (Florida and Connecticut), and neither made the tournament in 2015.

To break ties among programs with the same number of Sweet 16 appearances over the last 10 years, I looked at appearances in the past 9 seasons. If this didn’t break the tie, I looked at successively shorter time periods until one program came out ahead.

The rankings below show the top 10 college basketball programs by Sweet 16 appearances. Only one program had 7 appearances over 10 years, which shows the parity in college basketball. Even the best programs have years in which they lose before the second weekend of the tournament.

Teams that missed the cut

Gonzaga has made the tournament each of the past 10 years but did not make this list. While they have become a brand name program in college basketball, Gonzaga has struggled in the tournament with only 3 Sweet 16 appearances.

Ohio State and UCLA have 5 Sweet 16 appearances each but lost out to the teams below based on the tie breaker method. Ohio State hasn’t make the second weekend of the tournament the last two years, while UCLA had 3 straight appearances early in the 10 year window.

10. Xavier

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Xavier is the only program in the top 10 not from a power conference. Sean Miller led the Musketeers to the first two Sweet 16 appearances, while Chris Mack has reached the Sweet 16 in half of his 6 seasons.

9. Wisconsin

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2008

Bo Ryan has made the NCAA tournament in each of his 14 years as Wisconsin’s coach. They have made the Sweet 16 in half of the past 10 years, and the 2015 team led by Frank Kaminsky might be the best of all these teams.

8. Arizona

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2009

Sean Miller coached Arizona for the last 4 Sweet 16 appearances. However, Arizona only had 1 appearance between 2006 and 2010 as the program transitioned from long time coach Lute Olsen to Miller.

Arizona has a great team in 2015, and I think they have the best chance of beating Kentucky should they play in the Final Four.

7. Kentucky

5 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010

With their undefeated season so far in 2014-2015, one might expect Kentucky to be higher on this list. However, the Wildcats struggled in the early years of this 10 year period as they transitioned from Tubby Smith to Billy Gillispie (whoa, remember him?) to John Calipari.

Even within the last 5 years, Kentucky had a down year in 2013 when they lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Even the best programs can’t escape the vagaries of luck in this era of one and done players.

6. Florida

6 Sweet 16’s: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006

Billy Donovan has had tremendous success at Florida, winning back to back championships in 2006 and 2007. However, it doesn’t always run smoothly in Gainesville. Florida didn’t make the tournament in 2008 and 2009 when the stars from the championship teams left. They also didn’t make the tournament this year.

5. Duke

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006

Back in the Christian Laettner years, Duke made four straight Final Four appearances and won two championships. Even Mike Krzyzewski can’t duplicate that success in this era of parity and one and done players.

Duke has fallen victim to two of the biggest Round of 64 upsets recently, as they lost to 15 seed Lehigh in 2012 and 14 seed Mercer in 2014.

4. Kansas

6 Sweet 16’s: 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

Bill Self has an incredible streak of 11 straight Big 12 regular season championships. He also hasn’t made the Sweet 16 the past two seasons. In 2015, Kansas lost Wichita State, a program in their own state they refuse to schedule during the regular season.

3. North Carolina

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007

I thought North Carolina would be lower on this list, as Roy Williams has had some subpar teams in recent memory. North Carolina didn’t make the tournament in 2010, and they didn’t make the Sweet 16 in 2013 and 2014. However, they still have 6 appearances over the last 10 years and squeak ahead of Kansas with their Sweet 16 appearance in 2015.

2. Louisville

6 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2009, 2008

Rick Pitino has the Louisville program in great shape, as they almost always feature a top 10 defense by adjusted points per possession. However, their offense has been the problem in 2015. If they can find enough offense in the soft East Region this year, they could make another Final Four appearance.

1. Michigan State

7 Sweet 16’s: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008

Tom Izzo’s teams continue to perform well in March. In 2015, Michigan State beat Virginia to make the Sweet 16 for the 7th time over the last 10 years, tops in the country. I doubt Michigan State would have the highest rating averaged over the past 10 seasons, but they continue to have success in the tournament.

Finally!! Interactive win probabilities for March Madness in February

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int_bracket_Feb14_2014Do you find bracketology weird?

There’s an industry of people that predict how a committee will seed the NCAA men’s basketball tournament next month.

I get it. Fans want to know whether their team will make the tourney and where they’ll be seeded.

But isn’t the more important question how far your team will advance? Or whether they will win the tourney?

The odds of advancing in the tourney

For the last 2 years, The Power Rank has calculated the odds for each team to advance through the tourney. This starts with the college basketball team rankings, which imply a win probability for each game. The multiplication and addition of these numbers gives the odds for advancing through the rounds.

Usually, these results appear after the bracket is announced on Selection Sunday. However, I thought you might be interested in these results much earlier.

The interactive data visualization shows win probabilities based on ESPN’s bracket projection. Hover over a team to see their probability to advance through each round. Hover over a game to see the odds for each team to win the game. To play with the interactive visual, click here.

Let’s look at few features of these results.

A more competitive tourney

Arizona tops my rankings, and they appear as a one seed in the bracket prediction. However, they have only an 11% chance to win the tourney. To put this in perspective, Kentucky had 16.5% to win the tourney in 2012.

The lower win probability for Arizona results from their rating, or a projected margin of victory against an average college basketball team. Arizona has a rating of 17.8, tops in the nation. However, this rating is more than a point lower than Kentucky in 2012 as they headed into the tourney.

These ratings will change before the tourney starts, but it looks like a more competitive tourney than ever.

The value in Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh had Syracuse on the ropes at home on Wednesday night. They held a one point lead with 4 seconds remaining. But then Syracuse freshman Tyler Ennis hit a dazzling 35 foot shot to win the game.

Pittsburgh got robbed of a big win, sending them down to a 7 seed in this project bracket. However, the Panthers are 16th in The Power Rank. They have a 2% to win it all.

Almost no one will pick Pittsburgh as their champion in your pool. If Pittsburgh does actually win, you stand an excellent chance to win the pool, even if it has up to 100 entries.

However, Pittsburgh was also a good value pick last season, with a 1.5% win probability as an 8 seed. They lost in the first round to Wichita State.

Check out the interactive March Madness bracket

To play with the win probabilities, click here.

Also, I give advice on how to fill out your bracket when the actual bracket is announced. To get this information, sign up for my free email newsletter. Just enter your email address and click on “Sign up now”.