THE POWER RANK

Alabama won’t win the BCS title, and 6 other predictions from college football analytics

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Over at Grantland, I wrote about 7 predictions from college football analytics for the remainder of the season.

Alabama_YPP_Oct12_2013

I pulled out my entire bag of tricks of this one. In addition to looking at yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule, they asked me to estimate the impact of Missouri QB James Franklin on the SEC East. That required dusting off my Monte Carlo simulation for calculating division win probabilities.

Also, three of my data visualization accompany the writing, one of which appears above in modified form.

To read the entire article, which includes sections on Baylor, Clemson, and Louisville, click here.

3 predictions for week 5 of college football, 2013.

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ncaaf2013_w4_noisyWe’re at a transition point with my analysis.

With four weeks gone, I have enough data to rank teams based on only data from this season. All 125 teams are now connected by games. I no longer need data from last season that could bias the results.

However, my rankings with only data from this season are noisy. The figure shows the top 10 teams in my team rankings.

There is no chance that Oregon is 53 points better than the average FBS team. Over the last 30 years, the 1995 Nebraska team had the largest rating at 41 points.

Baylor as the second best team in the nation? Not with a schedule that includes Louisiana Monroe and Buffalo.

Mizzou in the top 10? I have respect for Gary Pinkel, but let’s not get ridiculous.

My rankings are incredibly noisy at this point in the season. Hence, my team rankings and predictions still use games from last season.

My offense and defense rankings by yards per play are also noisy. We just have to live with it.

Let’s look at some games.

Note from Ed, Friday, September 27th, 2013: I’ve been tracking my picks on the Onside Sports app, a beautiful sports app for iPhone and Android. I’m 5-4 through last night. This week, I feel so uncertain about the 3 games below that I’m not picking any of them on the app.

Stanford at Washington State

When Stanford roughed up San Jose State 34-13 in their opener, the Cardinal were on track to live up to their preseason hype. San Jose State had almost beaten them last season.

However, San Jose State gets beat up at Minnesota, and suddenly the Cardinal don’t look as hot.

The offense has not been elite this season, ranking 29th in yards per play adjusted for schedule. They face a surprising Washington State defense that ranks 11th.

Stanford’s defense has been great, ranking 13th and continuing to have a party in the backfield every game. They should be able to lock down Mike Leach’s spread offense. However, you never know when the offense will click.

The game will be played in Seattle, so Washington State also has to travel for this home game. However, I see this as a danger game for Stanford. They should win, but not by a lot.

Wisconsin at Ohio State

Wisconsin likes to run the ball. Behind a physical offensive line, 63% of their plays have been runs this season. Moreover, the Badgers are 1st in rush offense by yards per play adjusted for schedule.

Can Ohio State’s rush defense match up? They have only allowed 3.4 yards per rush this season, 9th best in the nation. However, they have played 4 teams that do not run the ball well.

My adjustments for schedule put Ohio State’s rush defense at 94th. That’s most likely too low. But the true strength of their rush defense will play a huge factor against Wisconsin.

The line favors Ohio State by 7 while my team rankings have the Buckeyes by 5.8.

Mississippi at Alabama

Alabama beat Colorado State 31-6 last weekend, but the game left plenty of doubts about this year’s Crimson Tide.

Colorado State threw for 5.7 yards per attempt (221 yards on 39 attempts). The FBS average is 6.4 yards per attempt. Alabama’s defense let a cupcake walk into Bryant Denny and throw the ball.

Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M threw for 11.8 yards per attempt against Alabama. However, that was the reigning Heisman trophy winner. I think their performance against Colorado State was worse.

Even more strange, Alabama only ran the ball 39.6% of plays. Usually, they pound a lesser opponent into submission behind their offensive line. Not against Colorado State.

I’m not ready to count out Nick Saban’s team, even if my noisy rankings have his offense 81st and his defense 96th. One game can flip these numbers dramatically.

However, there is cause for concern. Mississippi comes to Bryant Denny this weekend. Alabama is a 16 point favorite, and my team rankings predict a 19.5 point win. But the noisy early season offense and defense rankings suggest that Alabama will not win by that much.

Thanks for reading.

5 factors in predicting Alabama at Texas A&M

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UCLA at Nebraksa.

Washington travels to Chicago to play a surprising Illinois team.

Wisconsin travels to Arizona State.

Thank you college football for these intoxicating early season match ups. Well, thank you, Big Ten and Pac-12.

But at 3:30pm on Saturday, everyone will be watching Alabama at Texas A&M. Here are 5 factors to consider in predicting the outcome of the game.

An elite matchup on one side of the ball

Texas A&M and QB Johnny Manziel have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Based on yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule, they rank 2nd behind Georgia.

However, they face Alabama’s 2nd ranked defense (behind Florida). This is pure strength on strength, although one has to wonder whether 2 weeks of preparation for Alabama coach Nick Saban can tip the balance.

More on that later.

Alabama’s offensive line

If you saw any highlights from Alabama’s opening week win over Virginia Tech, you probably saw QB AJ McCarron getting sacked. Their offense struggled, gaining 3.5 yards per play compared with a 5.73 FBS average.

Alabama had to replace 3 offensive linemen chosen in the NFL draft (2 within the first 11 picks). If the team has any weakness, it’s along this front line.

However, Alabama didn’t protect McCarron that well last season. They gave up sacks on 6.25% of pass attempts, 83rd in the nation. But Alabama did run the ball at will, opening up the play action pass for big gains.

6.21 yards per rush

Texas A&M has played Rice and Sam Houston State, not quite the elite competition they will face in the SEC West. However, they gave up an astounding 6.21 yards per rush in those games. The FBS average is 5.08.

Alabama only rushed for 3.5 yards per rush against Virginia Tech. With all the warnings about small sample size, this looks like weakness against weakness.

Nick Saban

The Alabama coach knows how to prepare a team. His teams have played well in the last 3 national title games in which they’ve had over a month to prepare.

Since Alabama didn’t play last week, Saban has had two weeks to develop a defensive scheme to contain Johnny Manziel. I’m guessing this is a huge reason that Alabama is more than a 7 point favorite on the road. Vegas thinks Alabama, despite their troubles in week 1, are 10 points better than Texas A&M.

However, scheme doesn’t always overcome talent. Saban could only watch as Cam Newton, another mobile quarterback, brought Auburn back from a 24-0 deficit to beat Alabama in 2010.

The idiot factor

I’m all about numbers on this site. They are an essential element of understanding football. But numbers will never tell the complete story about football.

And numbers will never quantify what’s going on in Johnny Manziel’s head. He let a player from Rice, who probably spends most of his week on chemical engineering homework, goad him into a unsportsmanlike penalty.

Johnny Manziel has a temper. And I bet that temper might show up if he gets frustrated against Alabama’s defense. Or if a defender takes a shot at his head or knee during the game.

Manziel has lived a college football fantasy, with his Heisman trophy campaign last season. He probably hasn’t been frustrated on the football field since the LSU game last season, before he became a Heisman celebrity.

CBS Sports will have a Johnny cam on the QB during the game. It should be excellent television.

Prediction

My numbers say Alabama is at most 7 points better than Texas A&M. With 3 points for home field advantage, I predict about a 4 point edge for Alabama in this game.

The Prediction Tracker aggregates many different predictions for college football, and the average prediction is Alabama by 4.2 points.

But there are intangibles to consider, like Nick Saban’s prep time and Johnny Manziel’s temper. These factors are most likely pushing the line to 7.5 points in favor of Alabama. I think it was even higher earlier this week.

All factors point to better than even odds for Alabama to win on the road at Kyle Field.

Do you pick Alabama or the field? A 2013 SEC college football preview

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SEC_win_prob_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is a guest post by Chad Peltier. Raised by an Ohio State fan but a graduate of the University of Georgia, Chad spends his spare time uncovering the deepest mysteries in football analytics.

Despite Alabama’s past stranglehold on the SEC (and college football in general), the SEC should be home to one of the tightest, most intriguing races in the country this season.

The numbers suggest that Alabama should remain the favorite, but a crop of other teams will challenge the Tide for supremacy. Texas A&M – with or without Manziel – LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida all have excellent shots at dethroning Nick Saban in the last year of the BCS.

For more on how the win probabilities are calculated, click here.

Let’s break down both divisions, starting with the East.

SEC East

The front end of the SEC East should be extremely familiar, with Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina vying for their ticket to the SEC Championship game. The Power Rank estimates a 92.7% chance that one of these three teams will win the SEC East.

Florida

East win probability: 27.6% (3rd). SEC win probability: 9.7% (5th).

Will Muschamp will field a talented but inexperienced squad in 2013, which includes a devastated secondary (losing Matt Elam and Josh Evans) and linebacker units (losing Jonathan Bostic).

The bigger problem might be the same as last year’s team – the lack of any game-breaking offensive threats. ESPN commentator David Pollack questions, “Where’s the talent? Where’s the offensive talent? I can name three receivers from Alabama and three receivers from Georgia off the top of my head that would be the No. 1 guy for Florida.”

Much depends on Jeff Driskel’s development in the passing game. Senior receiver Andre Debose was injured and is now out for the season, so new wide receivers coach (and former Kentucky head coach) Joker Phillips has his work cut out for him.

Georgia

East win probability: 29.8% (2nd). SEC win probability: 10% (4th).

The Gators’ Cocktail Party rivals lost all but four defensive starters to graduation and the NFL, but it’s simply a matter of reloading the already stockpiled talent at Georgia. The top-end talent is unbeatable on both offense and defense at Georgia, but the question is whether the depth at a few key positions – offensive line, linebackers, and the devastated secondary – can handle the long grind of physical games against USC, Florida, and (potentially) Alabama.

Reports from fall camp suggest that the offensive and defensive lines are deeper this season, with veteran players finally joining the game rotation. The offensive line will be anchored by five-star recruit John Theus, seniors Kenarious Gates and David Andrews, as well as newly eligible Kolton Houston. Star tailbacks Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall should have plenty of space to run behind this star line, while senior quarterback Aaron Murray will have the time necessary to target one of the deepest receiving cores in the country.

South Carolina

East win probability: 35.3% (1st). SEC win probability: 11.7% (3rd).

The final challenger in the East is South Carolina. Spurrier’s Gamecocks aren’t just a vehicle for creating Clowney highlights (though that wouldn’t be a terrible thing), but have been one of the most consistently good (but not great) teams in the SEC over the past four seasons.

Clowney loses his fellow defensive end Devin Taylor to the NFL, as well as four of five top running backs, three of the top four receiving targets, the top five linebackers, as well as the stud safety behind them, D.J. Swearinger. Spurrier has work cut out for him this season, but it’s impossible to discount how stable Spurrier has kept his Gamecock ship the past four seasons.

Rest of SEC East

Missouri and Tennessee look fairly similar as middle-of-the-road teams on paper. Tennessee first year head coach Butch Jones will attempt to find the cure for the Volunteers poor turnover margin the past few seasons. Missouri must turn its penchant for explosive plays in to some measure of offensive consistency. Dorial Green-Beckham will pace a deep receiving core that will attempt to reclaim the numbers from when Missouri was in the Big 12. Missouri and Tennessee have a slim chance to win the SEC based upon The Power Rank estimates, with a .5% and .4% win probability overall and a 3.4% and 2.8% chance to win the East respectively.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s already poor run defense will be hurt by the loss of the top three defensive tackles. Coach James Franklin has Vanderbilt playing its best football in the history of the program. But this is a critical year as Vanderbilt attempts to break out of the SEC cellar and into the middle of the road group of SEC teams. This is likely not the Commodores year, with a .1% win probability for the SEC and just a 1% chance of winning the East.

First year coach Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him at Kentucky, the reigning basement dweller in the SEC. UK brings a legacy of both underdeveloped and shallow depth as well as a negative turnover margin that will likely frustrate Kentucky fans until Stoops’ surprisingly good recruiting classes get on campus next year. Kentucky has close to no chance of winning the SEC (0.0%) and only a .1% chance of winning the East.

SEC West

While the SEC East is fairly evenly divided between great, middle, and poor teams, the West is more stratified. The top three overall SEC teams should reside in the West, including Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. However, Ole Miss is certainly doing its best to enter this group under second year head coach Hugh Freeze.

Alabama

West win probability: 62.2% (1st). SEC win probability: 46.7% (1st).

Alabama remains the obvious leader of the Western triumvirate, but it is nonetheless striking how dominant the numbers suggest that the Tide will be in 2013. In The Power Rank’s preseason rankings, the margin between the Tide and the second ranked Aggies (7.5 points) is larger than the difference between the second and seventh-ranked SEC teams (4.8 points).

QB AJ McCarron led one of the most surprisingly efficient offenses in the country. He only threw three interceptions while remaining explosive with receivers Amari Cooper, Kenny Bell, and Kevin Norwood and freshman running back TJ Yeldon. The offense should improve even further in 2013 behind McCarron’s experience and the addition of new threats Robert Foster, Altee Tenpenny, and Derrick Henry.

If there are any areas for concern for Alabama this season, the offensive line does lose its top three (All-American) linemen and hasn’t recruited quite as deeply as we might expect. Many of offensive line coach Mario Cristoball’s players are former three-star recruits that will be pressed in to action this season. Traditionally strong defensive lines at LSU and Georgia, as well as the surprisingly talented Ole Miss line could give the Tide trouble.

With the graduation of Dee Milliner and the Geno Smith’s arrest, Alabama has another pressure point at cornerback. However, the offensive line and cornerback positions are still more solid than many of the other top-10 teams. Alabama has a realistic shot at perfection once again behind a forgiving schedule.

Texas A&M

West win probability: 22.7% (2nd). SEC win probability: 13.7% (2nd).

This was an offseason controlled by Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel story-lines, but coach Kevin Sumlin has brought steady growth and consistently entertaining offenses to College Station that justify (most of) the hype.

Interestingly enough, Texas A&M has improved despite its atrocious turnover margin, which has been in the red since the 2007 season.

If anything might derail the Aggies’ ascent to the college football elite, it might be heavy personnel turnover and limited depth. Sumlin can claim the worst personnel turnover in the SEC, with heavy losses at offensive line, linebacker, and defensive line.

The key to 2013 will be the ability of incoming freshmen to fill the holes in the front seven to stop the rush attacks of LSU, and Alabama.

LSU

West win probability: 8.5% (3rd). SEC win probability: 4.6% (6th).

LSU’s season will be built on senior QB Zach Mettenberger, who hasn’t quite exploited his NFL-quality arm in his short starting career. LSU has been consistently good, but only elite in 2011 behind two senior quarterbacks and a dominant defensive line.

The Tigers are hurt by the departures of DE Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, but high-quality recruits should emerge to take the mantle.

With a 4.6% probability of winning the SEC and 8.5% chance at the Western title, the Tigers are just the sixth most likely to take home the SEC title. LSU probably doesn’t have the stars to dethrone Alabama this season, but its defensive line should match up well with the Tide’s offense to make things interesting.

Ole Miss

West win probability: 6% (4th). SEC win probability: 2.7% (7th).

Ole Miss should be one of the most interesting teams to follow in 2013, with the allure of a still new head coach and an exciting offense. Plus, the Rebels welcome a stellar class of young recruits (including the top overall freshman Robert Nkemdiche, five star receiver Laquon Treadwell, and top offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil), and return a defensive line that has the talent (if not depth) to compete with the top offensive lines in the SEC.

The key for Coach Freeze is depth in 2013, as quality depth helps to create consistency. There is perhaps no team in the SEC that is more in need of consistency than the Rebels, who have fielded drastically different teams for the past five years. In fact, the only thing consistent about the Rebels has been their poor turnover margin, which has been negative for the past four seasons.

If Freeze can bring any measure of consistency to the program, then Ole Miss should have a 2.7% of capturing the SEC crown and a 6% shot at the Western title. Ole Miss is just outside the “good” group of SEC teams, with almost the same chance to be the Western representative as LSU.

Rest of SEC West

Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas make up the bottom tier of the West and the SEC as a whole. All had down years in 2012 and shared terrible turnover margins, but things might get worse before they get better for both Arkansas and Mississippi State. These two teams have almost no chance at the SEC title and only a .1% probability of winning the West. Dan Mullen has one of the more difficult jobs in the country, competing in the loaded SEC West and now vying with resurgent instate rival Ole Miss.

Auburn, on the other hand, benefits from a wealth of returning starters and the relative familiarity of first year head coach Gus Malzhan’s offense. Auburn’s team culture suffered heavily under Chizik’s staff, with the team not buying in or giving full effort commensurate with the talent levels on the field. With the Tigers’ talent, new team ethos, and new offensive system, the Tigers should rejoin the good or at least middle-pack teams in the SEC this season. New first string quarterback Nick Marshall will determine Auburn’s ceiling this year, but Auburn still just has a .3% probability of winning the West (.1% overall).

Overview

Between new head coaches at Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee, the relative parity between Georgia, Florida, LSU, USC, and Texas A&M, and the stellar recruiting classes, the SEC races will be exciting in 2013.

Besides the (fairly) easy pick for Alabama to return to the SEC Championship, it’s difficult to pick an eastern representative between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. As of now, an Alabama-South Carolina bout or Georgia-Alabama rematch is the most probable outcome, but the margins are extremely slim.

As for the eventual SEC champion, we return to our original question: Alabama or the remaining 13 SEC teams?

Take the field. At 53%, the odds are in your favor.

The Top 25 College Football Teams of 2013 by Recruiting Rankings

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Nick_Saban_StatueRecruiting rankings do matter.

Each year, Rivals assigns a rating or points value to each school that describes the talent of the players who signed a letter of intent. For Sports Illustrated, we developed a model that takes the Rivals ratings and predicts future team performance. To compare the rankings from this model with the preseason AP poll, we looked at which rankings better predicted the final AP poll.

The Rivals model did as good or better than the preseason AP poll on 46 out of 100 teams over the last 4 years. This is remarkable given the limited information the recruiting model has compared with the writers that vote in the AP poll.

To get the full story on SI.com, click here.

Before we count down the top 25 teams for 2013, we note the following about this regression model.

  • The regression model has learned from the past by relating recruiting ratings to the team ratings from The Power Rank algorithm. For example, recruiting data from 2009 to 2012 were fit to The Power Rank’s results for the 2012 season. Our team ratings from the regular season have picked the winner in 62.8% of bowl games over the last 11 years, a better percentage than the Vegas line (62.2%). Part of the accuracy of the recruiting model depends on our team ratings.
  • We used the final AP poll as the measuring stick for the accuracy of the Rivals model and the preseason AP poll. This poll has problems, as it strongly considers wins but almost ignores margin of victory. However, it was the most relevant measurement of team strength for a general college football audience.
  • The 100 teams we looked at were the top 25 teams in the preseason AP poll over the last 4 years. This puts the recruiting model in a better light, since this set of teams didn’t include teams highly ranked by the recruiting model but outside the AP top 25. For example, the recruiting model had Auburn 7th heading into the 2012 season. The preseason AP poll had Auburn 28th, which more accurately predicted their disasterous season.

With the passing of National Signing Day 2013, we now have the Rivals ratings to predict the 2013 college football season. The predictions are based the past 8 years of team performance.

25. Stanford. The Cardinal only had 12 scholarships to offer incoming freshmen. Since the number of recruits directly affects the Rivals team rating, Stanford only had the 61st ranked class this year, a far cry from their 5th ranked class a season ago.

24. Miami (FL). Miami coach Al Golden can’t walk off campus without tripping over a highly touted high school player. However, impending NCAA sanctions made recruiting difficult this year, as they had the 44th best class, much worse than their 9th ranking a year ago.

23. Virginia Tech. Despite two down years, coach Frank Beamer still recruited the 22nd ranked class. The Hokies need QB Logan Thomas’s passing to improve or groom a better passer.

22. California. The Bears continue to recruit well despite the coaching change from Jeff Tedford to Sonny Dykes. However, this ranking is probably too high. The Cal offense will be learning a new spread system under Dykes, while the defense lost coordinator Clancy Pendergast to USC.

21. Washington. The Huskies have continually improved their recruiting rank over the last 4 year, rising from 28th in 2010 to 18th in 2013. Hopefully, some of the linemen recruiting during this time will give QB Keith Price better protection next season.

20. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers pulled in the 17th best class, by far the 3rd best class in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, Michigan and Ohio State were way ahead, and Nebraska has to travel to Ann Arbor this season.

19. South Carolina. With all the media chatter about the talent in Columbus and the draw dropping hits from Jadeveon Clowney, you might think South Carolina is a top 10 recruiting team. In reality, their 16th ranking in 2013 was their best over the last 4 seasons.

18. Tennessee. The Rivals model had the Vols 13th in the nation last season, which was way too high. With new coach Butch Jones taking over, this year’s 18th ranking is also probably too high.

17. Oregon. Over the last 4 years, the Rivals model has consistently underrated the Ducks. The preseason AP poll was more accurate each year. Will this continue after head coach Chip Kelly handed the program over to Mark Helfrich?

16. UCLA. In talent rich Southern California, the Bruins always recruit well. They finally lived up to that talent last season under first year head coach Jim Mora. Their 11th ranked class this year should continue this trajectory.

15. Texas A&M. New coach Kevin Sumlin is getting tons of credit for recruiting the 10th best class this year. Of course, it helps that Johnny Manziel (a 3 star recruit) led the Aggies to their best season in more than a decade.

14. Mississippi. The Rebels and coach Hugh Freeze had a magical signing day, landing two top 10 recruits on the offensive and defensive line. Their 7th ranking is by far their best since 2002. However, three of their rivals in the SEC west are ranked higher in these rankings.

13. Clemson. With their dramatic, come from behind win against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, the Tigers will surely be an overrated top 10 team in the preseason AP poll. This ranking in the teens seems more appropriate.

12. Oklahoma. In the past 12 years, the Sooners have recruited a top 10 class 7 times. However, none of these top 10 classes have occurred during the last 3 seasons. Coach Bob Stoops needs more talent on the defensive line to start contending for national titles again.

11. Texas. Even Mack Brown can’t recruit after 3 subpar seasons. The Longhorns had the 23rd ranked class, their worst since 2002. Their usually excellent defense really needs help after last season.

10. Georgia. How would the Bulldogs recruiting class would have fared if the coaches had told QB Aaron Murray to spike the ball during the waning moments of the SEC championship game? A win over Alabama would have landed Georgia in the national title game against Notre Dame. Instead, they had the 12th best class, a fine rank but the second worst for coach Mark Richt over the last 12 years.

9. Michigan. After a disasterous 3 seasons under Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke has turned around this program both on the field and recruiting trail. The Wolverines notched the 5th ranked class after finishing 7th last year. These are their two best ranked classes over the last 8 years.

8. USC. While we kept hearing about the defections from the Trojan’s class, no one mentioned that coach Lane Kiffin still had five 5 star recruits coming to campus, more than any other school (yes, even Alabama). Lack of talent will not be a problem for USC.

7. Auburn. Yes, feel free to call BS on this one. The Tigers continue to recruit well. But unless the next Cam Newton and Nick Fairley show up on campus this fall, Auburn will not return to elite status this season under new coach Gus Malzahn.

6. Florida State. Call BS on this one at your own risk. Despite disappointing loses to NC State and Florida this year, expect the talent rich Seminoles to exceed expectations next season.

5. LSU. It’s a bit shocking that top recruit Robert Nkemdiche picked Ole Miss over LSU. There’s more certainly in winning games in Baton Rouge. Still, coach Les Miles landed the 6th best class in the nation.

4. Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish took full advantage of their undefeated regular season and landed the 3rd best class in the nation. While we should expect Notre Dame to be good next year, 4th is probably too high.

3. Ohio State. The Buckeyes will not surprise anyone this year. In coach Urban Meyer’s first season, Ohio State started the year 18th in the preseason AP poll. Now, with an undefeated season and a 2nd ranked recruiting class, anything but a national title will be a disappointment.

2. Florida. Last year, first year coach Will Muschamp landed the 3rd ranked class despite finishing 7-6. Somehow, a 11-2 season this year got the Gators the 4th ranked class (although they did top the rankings before National Signing Day). Talent is never a problem at Florida.

1. Alabama. Duh. What did you expect? After going 7-6 in his first year at Alabama, coach Nick Saban still recruited the top ranked class in 2008. This started a streak of top ranked classes for Alabama in 5 of the last 6 years. The rest of the SEC should resort to a voodoo consultant to bring bad turnover luck to Alabama next season.

Outlook

No one should take these rankings too seriously. With the short season and the youth of the players involved, college football is incredibly difficult to predict during the preseason. And these rankings have their problems. There’s an incredibly high likelihood that Boise State will be better than the 60th best team in the nation next year.

However, these rankings are still useful, and not only because they are six months ahead of the preseason AP poll. As with all predictive analytics, use these rankings has a guide to help navigate expectations for next season.

Moreover, this is only the beginning of our preseason college football predictions. To keep up to date, sign up for our free email newsletter below.

Thanks for reading.