THE POWER RANK

The accuracy of The Power Rank’s 2014 college football predictions

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How did my college football predictions do in 2014? Here, I look at not only my posted numbers for all games but also the forecasts made on this site and other outlets such as Grantland, Deadspin and Bleacher Report.

It’s 2015, and I’m making a full effort to track and report on all of my predictions. It started with baseball this spring, and it will continue through football and basketball.

Let’s get started.

Best prediction

Before the BCS title game, I wrote on Deadspin about how Ohio State presented a terrible match up for favorite Oregon. Ohio State had a vicious rushing attack that had just mauled a strong Alabama defense. Oregon had an average rush defense.

During the game, Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott gashed Oregon for 246 yards on 36 carries (6.8 yards per carry). Despite 4 turnovers, Ohio State won 42-20.

In the comments of the Deadspin article, a reader wrote this:

It is the start of the fourth, and it is creepy how on point your predictions are.

Two of my preseason predictions make honorable mention.

Auburn to regress

Auburn had a dream season in 2013, as they rose from the ashes of the SEC West to win the conference and play in the BCS championship game. However, they got the benefit of a few lucky plays (a tipped hail mary completion against Georgia, a field goal returned for a touchdown against Alabama).

In August, I wrote about how Auburn would have a tough 2014 season because of their schedule and the small chance they benefit from those lucky type plays again. Auburn fans didn’t like that I called them lucky.

Auburn couldn’t reproduce those plays in 2014. After a magical 12-2 season in 2013, they fell to 8-5 last season. Part of their demise was a tough cross division game at Georgia that they lost.

TCU to win the Big 12

My other favorite preseason prediction was that TCU would win the Big 12.

I actually went against my numbers on this one as Oklahoma had a higher win probability. However, no one gave TCU a chance, and I had them ranked 14th in the preseason.

TCU had a tremendous season as they went 12-1 and finished as co-champions with Baylor of the Big 12.

Worst prediction

Grantland asked me to predict the Heisman winner during the preseason. I don’t make player predictions, so I had some fun and picked Stanford QB Kevin Hogan.

I thought I had some strong reasoning, but Hogan came no where near the Heisman conversation. He led a Stanford offense that made red zone stalls a season long habit. This led to a disappointing 8-5 season.

Halfway through the season, Grantland gave me a do over and asked for another Heisman prediction. This time I go with Bo Wallace, the quarterback of a 6-0 Ole Miss team. Part of my reasoning was his improved completion percentage the first half of the season, an oh so huge sample size to make a judgment.

I wrote the following about my Wallace pick.

It’s hard to deny a blond quarterback from an unexpected SEC contender.

Then Wallace had a terrible second half of the season. He couldn’t make a play in a close game against LSU, and Ole Miss lost their first game of the season. The once mighty Rebels lose two more SEC games before getting blown out by TCU 42-3 in a bowl game.

Don’t ask me about the Heisman.

The Ohio State season end surge

For predictions based on my numbers, I was disappointed to not predict Ohio State’s surge at the end of the season. Before the Big Ten title game, they were 13th in my team rankings. Their loss to a bad Virginia Tech team at home pulled them down.

Then Ohio State plays the 3 best games any college football team has ever put together. They become the first national champion in the playoff era.

Member predictions

Members get access to my best predictions for spreads and totals.

The member predictions with the most value are the college football totals, which were posted from week 6 to the end of the season in 2014. These predictions went 53.3% against opening totals (273-239-4) and 51.5% against closing totals (260-245-9).

However, these numbers do not tell the entire story. When the predicted total differed from the opening total by more than 4 points, the market total moved in the direction of the prediction 90.4% of the time (122-13, with two totals that didn’t move).

On average, the final total moved 3.5 points in the direction of the model prediction. Some refer to this as closing line value.

For the entire 2014 season, spread predictions for members were 50.1% against the opening line (367-366-19) and 48.6% against the closing line (357-378-8). Modifications will be made to this model for 2015.

To learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank, click here.

Public predictions

On the predictions page, I posted a margin of victory for each college football game.

These predictions got the game winner correct in 70.4% of games (539-227). It’s interesting that my preseason model, which doesn’t use data from the regular season, predicted a higher percentage of game winners (71.1% on 482-196 with no predictions on the other games).

Against the markets, the public predictions won at 49.9% against the opening line (370-371 with 18 pushes) and 48.5% against the closing line (363-385 with 9 pushes). It’s tough to beat the markets on every game.

The public predictions will be reworked this season. There’s room for great improvement, especially since these predictions were 53.8% against the opening spread through week 8 of the season.

Playoff probabilities on Bleacher Report

Playoff predictions on 11-18-2014.

On Bleacher Report, I predicted which teams would make the four team playoff based on the committee rankings. To learn more about these simulation methods, click here.

Overall, I thought the predictions did pretty well. Mississippi State was first in the committee’s first rankings. However, my numbers thought they wouldn’t make it due to tough games at Alabama and Ole Miss. Mississippi State lost both games and didn’t make the playoff.

By week 12 of the season, Alabama, Oregon and Florida State had the highest chance to make the playoffs by my calculations. Eventually, all 3 of these teams made the playoff.

However, the predictions were off the last week of the season as my numbers had TCU instead of Ohio State for the last spot. As I mentioned earlier, it was difficult to predict Ohio State’s surge at the end of the season based on their previous numbers.

However, my methods also need work. I had no way of knowing how the committee would value a conference championship. For 2015, I’ll account for this in my model.

Even with this improvement, there are still human factors out of my control. Though the committee placed an emphasis on a conference championship, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby still presented them with co-champions in Baylor and TCU. It might make more sense to crown Baylor the champion as they beat TCU.

My other decent predictions

Some of my other predictions had the right idea but didn’t nail it.

Thanks for reading.

The top 26 college football teams of 2015 by recruiting rankings

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Nick_Saban_StatueHow talented is your college football team? If only recruiting hype mattered, which teams would contend for next season’s college football playoff?

Here, we use recruiting rankings to rank college football teams for 2015. Sure, recruiting rankings don’t always accurately access the talent of teenagers. Five star recruits fail while a three star recruit like Johnny Manziel wins the Heisman in his freshman year.

However, recruiting rankings look pretty good in the big picture. Matt Hinton showed that five star recruits have the highest chance to become an All-American, with diminishing chances for four and then three star recruits.

I developed a regression model that uses four years of team recruiting rankings from Rivals to predict on field performance. This on field performance is defined by the team rankings at The Power Rank. The regression model simply assigns a weight to each of the past four years.

Will these rankings accurately predict next season?

We’ll count down the top 26 teams of 2015 below. But don’t go telling people “ED FENG THINKS USC IS BY FAR THE BEST TEAM IN THE PAC-12.” Not true.

The regression model is a poor predictor of team performance by The Power Rank. It’s much better to just look at the year end rating from the previous season. (For you math types, the recruiting model explains 25% of the variance in team ratings, while the year end rating from the previous season explains 57%.)

This model will never describe teams like Wisconsin, a program that never has a top 25 recruiting class but contends for a conference title every year. It will also overrate programs (cough, cough, Notre Dame) that never live up to their talent level.

But hell, it’s fun to look at which teams have the most talent according to recruiting rankings. It will help pass the long 7 month off season.

Honorable mention

Wisconsin ranks 44th. Former coach Gary Andersen, who left for Oregon State this winter, lamented the tough academic standards that prevented him from recruiting some players to Wisconsin.

TCU and Baylor rank 37th and 40th respectively. Guess coaching matters, as these should be top 10 teams next preseason.

Missouri checks in at 32nd. Low recruiting rankings haven’t stopped Gary Pinkel’s team from winning the SEC East the past two seasons.

26. Michigan State

Mark D’Antonio has produced a mighty fine team the last two seasons despite mediocre recruiting. With the probably return of QB Connor Cook, the Spartans should still be a very good team in 2015.

25. Penn State

Coach James Franklin came to State College with a reputation for recruiting, and he seems to be delivering. But can he fix QB Christian Hackenberg, the supposed NFL prospect whose completion percentage slipped from 59% to 56% from his freshman to sophomore year?

24. Arizona State

Coach Todd Graham has elevated the level of recruiting in Tempe. Arizona State was outside the top 25 from 2009 through 2013 but has drawn the 20th best class the last two seasons.

23. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs had an amazing 10-3 year (well, they could have done better with a bowl win over Georgia Tech) and translated their success into the 16th best class this season. That’s their best rank since 2003.

22. Virginia Tech

Frank Beamer is still getting good recruits to come to Blacksburg? Virginia Tech was a perennial top 25 team in The Power Rank but have fallen off since the 2011 season.

21. Michigan

Michigan has had two successive small recruiting classes, which has reduced their team rank the past two seasons. When recalculating these rankings using average stars per recruit, Michigan ranks 17th.

20. Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes had a rough season. They ranked 17th in my ensemble rankings but finished with a losing 6-7 record. Al Golden recruited the 26th best class but 16th by average stars.

19. Oregon

Oregon always plays above their rank by recruiting numbers. However, 2015 will be a tough test for Mark Helfrich, as he loses QB Marcus Mariota and has many leaks to plug on the defense.

18. Mississippi

Two years ago, Hugh Freeze made a big splash on recruiting day by signing multiple five star recruits on his way to the 7th best class. However, he hasn’t been able to replicate that success the last two years. It remains to be seen whether their successful 2014 season was a fluke or not.

17. South Carolina

Steve Spurrier really had issues on defense this season, as South Carolina finished 37th in my team rankings in 2014. They didn’t finish outside the top 20 the previous four seasons.

16. Stanford

At least once during every Stanford game, I scream at coach David Shaw for some unthinkably bad decision. However, he wins games, and the 2014 Stanford team was much better than their 8-5 record suggests.

15. Oklahoma

In 2014, the Sooners won a huge bowl game over Alabama and entered the next season overrated. In 2015, they blew their bowl game against Clemson and will probably be underrated heading into next season. Bob Stoops continues to recruit at the same level, so expect them to challenge TCU and Baylor for the Big 12.

14. UCLA

The Bruins had a tremendous signing day, finishing with the 4th best class by average stars per recruit. Let’s see if this makes them into the top 10 team that people expect each preseason.

13. Texas

Charlie Strong recruited the 12th best class to Texas. This is a fine haul anywhere except Texas, a program that had one class outside the top 5 from 2006 through 2012 under Mack Brown.

12. Florida

It seemed like new coach Jim McElwain had a good National Signing Day when five star CeCe Jefferson committed. However, Jefferson still hasn’t sent his letter of intent, and Florida has the 23rd best class, their worst rank in any year since 2002.

11. Tennessee

Butch Jones recruited his second straight 5th ranked class. Perhaps Tennessee can finally overcome the curse of Phil Fulmer, the Hall of Fame, national championship winning coach they fired in 2008.

10. Georgia

Mark Richt always recruits well. That’s why he can find a freshman (Nick Chubb) to replace the best running back in the country (Todd Gurley) when he gets hurt.

9. Clemson

Dabo Swinney recruited the best class of his tenure as Clemson head coach (4th by team, 7th by average stars). With a healthy DeShaun Watson at QB for the next two seasons, the future looks bright for the Tigers.

8. Texas A&M

The numbers back up Kevin Sumlin’s reputation as a top recruiter. Texas A&M had its third straight top 10 class in 2015, a feat they didn’t achieve the previous 7 years. Now, they need to fix that defense that has stunk for two straight seasons.

7. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish recruit well no matter the coach. However, their play hasn’t lived up to their top 10 recruiting rankings, even under Brian Kelly. Since he arrived in 2010, they have finished 32nd, 21st, 11th (reached title game against Alabama), 23rd and 39th in my team rankings.

6. Auburn

It should scare the rest of the college football world that Auburn landed Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator. He was an excellent DC at Texas, and his reputation helped Auburn land top recruit Byron Cowart.

5. LSU

Les Miles had only the 13th ranked class by average stars. This is only the second time since 2007 that his recruiting class by average stars finished outside the top 10.

4. Florida State

The Seminoles had the top ranked class in 2015 by average stars. Jimbo Fisher needs some of these guys to step in on a defense that struggled this season.

3. USC

Did these recruits see USC get gashed by Boston College this season? And they still decided to play for Steve Sarkisian and his 9-4 record this past season? USC had the top ranked recruiting class in 2015.

2. Ohio State

For a team that won the first college football playoff, a 9th ranked recruiting class (10th by average stars) seems like a poor haul. However, Ohio State didn’t have one five star recruit on their offensive line that powered their running game this season.

1. Alabama

Duh? What did you expect? Nick Saban must be torturing himself because USC had a better ranked class (the first time since 2010 that Saban didn’t have the top ranked class by Rivals). However, Alabama still ends up at the top of these rankings that look at a four year window.

How the SEC impacts the college football playoff in 2014

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sec_west_week11_2014After week 11 of the college football season, the selection committee for the playoff has only one SEC team in its top 4. Undefeated Mississippi State tops the rankings, but TCU jumped over Alabama for the 4th and last playoff spot.

Is the strength of the SEC finally catching up with the conference? After week 11, four of the top six teams in my team rankings hail from the SEC West. All 7 teams are in the top 20. As these teams beat each other up, it seems doubtful any team will have few enough losses to make the playoff.

However, the numbers suggest the SEC will most likely get 2 teams in the playoff. Let me explain.

Mississippi State at Alabama

Mississippi State has enjoyed a magical season in which they remain undefeated and QB Dak Prescott has shot up the Heisman polls. However, life gets more difficult as they travel to Alabama this weekend.

Alabama looks like the most balanced team in the nation. I rank offense and defense by taking yards per play and adjusting for schedule. Alabama has the 7th and 2nd ranked offense and defense respectively. Miami, a team discussed later, is the only other team with two top 10 units.

In contrast, Mississippi State has the 9th ranked offense but the 37th ranked defense. Quarterback Blake Sims and the Alabama offense should get their points against this defense.

In The Power Rank’s ensemble predictions, which aggregate a number of predictors, Alabama is an 11 point favorite to beat Mississippi State. The markets started by favoring Alabama by 7, but this spread jumped to 9.5.

The glory of not playing in the SEC championship game

However, a Mississippi State loss does not eliminate them from the college football playoff. They could still win the SEC West since Alabama must play a tough Auburn team in two weeks. Overall, Mississippi State has a 34.9% chance to win the SEC West.

sec_west_week11_2014

But Mississippi State doesn’t have to win the SEC West. If they lose to Alabama, they will drop in the committee rankings but perhaps not too far. Remember, this would be their first loss, and the committee might keep them in the top 4.

If Mississippi State wins their remaining games but finishes 2nd to Alabama in the West, they won’t play in the SEC championship game. But this is a good thing. The selection committee drops teams after a loss, just like the polls. This means it’s bad to lose late in the season. Mississippi State can’t lose the last week of the season if they don’t play.

We saw this type of phenomena in the BCS era. In 2011, Alabama lost to LSU during the regular season and finished 2nd in the SEC West. They stayed at home the last week of the season but earned the second spot in the national title game over Oklahoma State.

Auburn at Georgia

The SEC East could also have huge implications for the selection committee. This weekend, Auburn travels to Athens for a game against Georgia. Both teams feature high powered offenses that should score plenty of points.

Georgia gets running back Todd Gurley back for the game. This is one factor that drove the markets to open with Georgia as a 2.5 point favorite.

However, you have to wonder how much impact Gurley will have when his backup Nick Chubb has averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Our ensemble predictions give Auburn a slim 0.5 point edge on the road.

Despite trailing Missouri in the SEC East standings, Georgia (7-2, 5-2 SEC) has a 49.4% chance to win the division. This probability will only go up if they beat Auburn in their last SEC game. Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC) still has 3 conference games, two against tough SEC West opponents (Texas A&M and Arkansas).

sec_east_week11_2014

If Georgia wins the East, they will most likely be a significant underdog in the SEC championship game. However, Georgia almost certainly makes the playoff if they win the game. The current 15th ranked team in the committee rankings would have earned a top 4 spot, which will make it even more impossible for the committee to determine the top 4 teams.

Ensemble predictions

Here are a sample of the ensemble predictions I’ve been working on with Mike Craig, my partner in the prediction service.

The first number gives a predicted point spread, and a negative number implies a win for the home team. The second number is the total points scored.

Florida State at Miami (FL): -2.1, 59.1.

Nebraska at Wisconsin: -6.6, 54.9.

Michigan State at Maryland: 8.0, 55.3.

Rice at Marshall: -22.2, 63.5.

Indiana at Rutgers: -7.1, 60.5.

Memphis at Tulane: 10.6, 45.6.

Akron at Buffalo: 4.2, 54.9.

Missouri at Texas A&M: -7.2, 56.2.

Toledo at Northern Illinois: -1.0, 64.9.

San Diego State at Boise State: -15.6, 53.2.

Virginia Tech at Duke: -3.5, 45.4.

Texas at Oklahoma State: -0.9, 45.7.

Wake Forest at North Carolina State: -16.8, 43.4.

Mississippi State at Alabama: -11.0, 55.7.

Temple at Penn State: -13.3, 38.8.

Auburn at Georgia: 0.5, 66.7.

Ball State at Massachusetts: -2.4, 60.4.

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan: -11.6, 49.3.

Southern Miss at UTSA: -8.3, 47.4.

North Texas at UTEP: -1.2, 51.2.

All of these math predictions are available to members of The Power Rank.

College football’s best conference and 5 predictions for Thanksgiving weekend, 2013

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I was watching the Arizona State and UCLA game last weekend when the Pac-12 standings popped onto the screen. It said that Utah had 1 conference win.

One conference win? The Utes have only beaten Stanford?

Despite their 4-7 record, Utah is a good team. In their non conference schedule, they beat BYU and Utah State, team ranked 22nd and 47th in The Power Rank. In conference, they have played almost all opponents tough, coming within a touchdown of beating UCLA despite throwing 6 interceptions. Overall, Utah ranks 27th in The Power Rank.

If a team with one conference win ranks 27th, how good is the Pac-12 overall? The visual shows the ranking of conferences by averaging over each team’s rating (The Power Rank’s estimate of that team’s expected margin of victory over an average FBS team).

Computer rankings of conferences in college football, 2013.

The Pac-12 slightly edges out the SEC as the top conference. While this does not conclusively show the Pac-12 is the better conference, it does suggest the two conferences are closer than anyone thinks.

A few other insights from the visual.

  • How bad is the bottom of Conference USA? UTEP (121st), Florida International (124th) and Southern Miss (125th) are the bottom of the FBS barrel.
  • There is a clear distinction between the top 5 conferences and rest. The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East) does not make the cut… not by a mile.
  • If not for the brilliance of Florida State, the Big Ten might move past the ACC as the 4th best conference.

The Pac-12 has been remarkably tough this season. We’ll look at games with national title implications today, and none will involve a Pac-12 team.

Alabama at Auburn

Last season, Auburn did not win a single SEC game. This meltdown landed them 76th in The Power Rank by year’s end and got coach Gene Chizik fired, two years after winning a national title.

Former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn took over as head coach and immediately elevated this team, as Auburn ranks 17th in The Power Rank. Some programs always have talent, which makes a quick turn around possible. As another example, Jim Mora has performed miracles at UCLA over the past two seasons.

Auburn has only one loss all season, and a win over Alabama gives the Tigers the SEC West title and a place in the conference championship game. Can Auburn win?

Auburn has an advantage because of their 11th ranked offense based on yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule. They run an up tempo spread attack that runs the ball on 69% of plays. However, they are also efficient through the air. QB Nick Marshall has led Auburn to the 14th best pass offense (yards per attempt adjusted for strength of schedule).

Check out this match up visual for Auburn’s offense against Alabama’s defense. Better defenses appear further to the right to facilitate comparisons.

auburn_bama_Nov2013

Auburn has an edge in the passing game.

Members of The Power Rank have access to interactive visuals like this for all college football teams. For more information, click here.

Alabama is the favorite in this game, and this edge depends on their 15th ranked offense over Auburn’s 40th ranked defense. The Crimson Tide offense started slowly this season. Coach Nick Saban would get steamed each week at their poor execution. This poor play prompted me to predict that Alabama wouldn’t win another championship on Grantland.

But with each passing week, Alabama makes me look more stupid. They are clearly executing better and can throw downfield with QB AJ McCarron.

The line favors Alabama by 9.5, but my yards per play numbers predict a 3 point win. Either way, the margin is close enough that a few turnovers or big plays on special teams could flip the result in favor of Auburn.

Ohio State at Michigan

What will be higher: the win probability for Michigan (25%) or the fraction of red in the Big House on Saturday?

Michigan has struggled this season, losing 3 of their last 4 games. Meanwhile, an undefeated Ohio State creeps further into the national title game conversation each week despite their weak schedule.

Ohio State has a prolific offense, ranked 5th by yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule. While their rushing attack behind Carlos Hyde gets most of the attention, they can also throw the ball well. QB Braxton Miller has completed 68% of his passes, leading the 29th best pass offense in the nation. They face a Michigan defense ranked 32nd.

Ohio State does not have such an elite unit on defense. Their 22nd ranked defense is good, but has allowed teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern to stay in games. They face a Michigan offense that has caused their fans more indigestion than Uncle Tony’s nachos last Thanksgiving.

Florida State at Florida

Florida State has jumped to elite this season. The Power Rank gives them a rating of 36 points, which implies they would beat the average FBS team by this margin. Over the last 30 years, this puts them behind only 1995 Nebraska (41 points) and just head of 2011 Alabama (35 points, beat LSU in title game).

Florida State might not maintain this level with at least 3 more games on their schedule. But the Seminoles look potent on both sides of the ball. The offense and defense rank 4th in the nation by yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule.

Florida could stay in this game. Just like Auburn and UCLA, the Gators always have talent, no matter how many wins they have this season. Despite a rash of injuries, their defense still ranks 10th in the nation, which could keep them in this game. However, they continue to struggle on offense, with the 95th ranked unit.

Both the team rankings and yards per play predict a 25 point win for Florida State.

Texas A&M at Missouri

Not many people are talking about Missouri in the national title picture. However, the one loss Tigers will win the SEC East if they beat Texas A&M. If Missouri then beats Alabama or Auburn in the SEC championship game, the BCS title game either includes Missouri (potentially over an unbeaten Ohio State team) or excludes the champion of the conference that has won the last 7 titles.

The offenses will dominate the game between Missouri and Texas A&M.

Missouri has senior QB James Franklin back from a separated shoulder. Their 10th ranked defense faces a Texas A&M defense that has struggled at 92nd in the nation.

Texas A&M’s offense has been just as potent this season as last when QB Johnny Manziel won the Heisman. Both units ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per play adjusted for schedule. Manziel will look for redemption after a terrible game against LSU last week.

The line started at Missouri by 3 but has since moved to 4. Both the team rankings (10) and yards per play (6) predict a bigger margin of victory for Missouri, suggesting some value in this game.

Clemson at South Carolina

South Carolina could lose this non conference game and still make the SEC title game. They win the SEC East if Missouri loses to Texas A&M. Then there is the potential for a 3 loss team to win the SEC championship game.

This game should be close, as both the line and my team rankings predict only a 4 point win for South Carolina at home.

Thanks for reading.

Is Alabama safe from an upset against LSU?

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Usually, I read the cookie cutter preview articles to make fun of the conventional wisdom in my own previews. However, the opening to the preview for LSU at Alabama nailed it.

So it’s not the “Game of the Century,” or maybe even the game of the week.

College football treated us to a tremendous Thursday night schedule. In Waco, Baylor’s offense looked human for the first time all season. They gained only 5.74 yards per play, not far above the 5.45 average.

However, the defense rocked. This unit, ranked 16th in my rankings before the game, held Oklahoma to 3.43 yards per play and 10 points. Baylor won by 29 points. My prediction in Grantland of their winning the Big 12 looks good.

In Palo Alto, Stanford pulled off a unique double. Their win over Oregon knocked the Ducks from the top of the BCS conversation. And the defense haraseed Oregon QB Marcus Mariota out of the Heisman picture.

However, the story of the game was the domination Stanford’s offensive line. By the second half, they left little doubt whether Stanford would convert a 3rd and short. The Cardinal chewed up the clock behind this massive unit.

Granted, Stanford got a bit lucky when D’Anthony Thomas fumbled at the Stanford 1 yard line, killing a drive. Not the play one expects from someone who said Oregon would score 40 points against Stanford.

Now the national title picture shifts to Tuscaloosa. Can LSU beat Alabama?

The injustice of schedule

First, let’s take a look at the big picture.

A loss to LSU does not knock Alabama over the national championship picture. LSU already has 2 conference losses, one of which came in a cross division game at Georgia. Meanwhile, Alabama enjoyed two cross division games against Tennessee and Kentucky, inferior teams to Georgia. The schedule screwed LSU this season.

If Alabama loses, they still win the SEC West by winning their remaining games. Then if they win the SEC title game, will the BCS keep out a one loss team from a conference that has won the last 7 national titles? I don’t know the answer to that, but I can imagine the pages of complaints on my Facebook feed from friends in SEC country.

And they have a point.

Role reversal this season

Last season, Zach Mettenberger took over the QB job for LSU. He was mediocre until the Alabama game, a night he suddenly turned into Andrew Luck. His precision passing gave LSU a late lead in the game, one that the defense could not hold in a dramatic Alabama win.

Mettenberger’s performance against Alabama made me look like an ass. In Sports Illustrated, I highlighted LSU’s pass offense against Alabama’s pass defense as a key edge for Alabama. Of course, Mettenberger never played that well again, especially in a bowl loss to Clemson.

This season, Mettenberger has lead a resurgance of LSU’s offense. They come into this game ranked 5th in pass offense. Morever, Alabama has been surprisingly weak in pass defense at 53rd in my rankings. Alabama had a huge edge in this matchup last season, but the opposite is true for Saturday night’s game.

Not your typical LSU team

Over the past few seasons, LSU has featured an elite defense full of future NFL draft picks. However, this unit has fallen off this season, ranking 29th in adjusted yards per play.

They face an Alabama offense that struggled with their execution early in the season. Coach Nick Saban stormed off the field at halftime against Ole Miss complaining about missed blocks. However, this unit has played much better recently, now ranking 14th in the nation in adjusted yards per play. They will have an edge against LSU’s defense.

Outlook

The line favors Alabama by 10, and my team rankings give a 16 edge to Alabama at home. However, I see this as a much closer game. Yards per play predicts a 50-50 game, mostly based on the new found strength of LSU’s offense. If Mettenberger excels and LSU makes a big play on special teams, they can beat Alabama.

Thanks for reading.