THE POWER RANK

5-Nugget Saturday, March 4, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

LSU at Florida, college basketball – Drew Martin of SportsGrid notes that Florida has lost six of their last eight games, giving up more than 80 points in three of their last four. The injury to Colin Castleton in these four games has hurt the Gators.

Florida struggles both rebounding and shooting, ranking near or at the bottom of the conference in both categories since the loss of Castleton. The “O Dome” can be a tough place to play, but Florida is in a down spin and should not be asked to cover a big number.

LSU comes into Gainsville at the bottom of the SEC standings. However, the Bayou Bengals have not quit on first year head coach Matt McMahon. The Tigers have played teams close of late, even getting their first conference outright win last week.  

Drew likes when terrible teams become decent because they stay under the radar. He sent me LSU +8.5 on Friday night, and he still thinks there is value on LSU +7.5. Follow Drew Martin on Twitter where he posts college basketball bets and write ups.

NBA assists prop – Alperen Senguin is a 20 year old Turkish center in his second season with the Houston Rockets. He has had a promising season, averaging 14.8 points and 8.6 rebounds as the starter.

However, Betscope notices some value on his assist prop. While most books have him at 4.5 assists, FanDuel has Senguin at 5.5. The season average of 3.9 assists for Senguin suggests value on under 5.5 assists, -156.

College basketball predictions – These are predictions can be calculated from The Power Rank member college basketball rankings page, currently available for free to the public.

  • Tennessee will beat Auburn by 4.4 points on the road. Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler for the season this week. There should be an adjustment, but probably not one that makes Auburn the favorite.
  • Texas will beat Kansas by 1.0 at home. The Jayhawks should get a 1 seed in the tournament. They are the better team in this game, but home court makes Texas the favorite.
  • Indiana will beat Michigan by 3.7 at home, Sunday March 5. After years of struggles with their shooting, Indiana is making 37.8% of their threes this season, 19th best in the nation. Expect a little regression, as Miller Kopp is making 46.2% from three, by far a career high.

NCAA tournament win probabilities – My interactive visual shows the probability for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. These numbers come from my points based college basketball team rankings, and the bracket is taken from ESPN on Friday.

Houston has the highest win probability, but a 2 seed UCLA has the second highest probability. Led by veterans Jamie Jaquez and Tiger Campbell, this team has won nine games in a row.

UCLA plays outstanding defense, as they rank first in my adjusted points per possession. My member numbers like UCLA by 3.1 points over Arizona, another national title contender, at home on Saturday.

College basketball humor – Fran McCaffery’s therapist told him not to yell at the referees. Instead, the Iowa coach did this.

After the stare down, Iowa came back from 10 down with 1:29 left in the game and beat Michigan State in overtime.

March Madness cheat sheet

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

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Tennessee and the 2023 NCAA Tournament

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It’s been almost a decade since Texas fired Rick Barnes, and maybe that wasn’t the best idea. 

Barnes has produced some strong Tennessee teams, most notably those heading into the 2018 and 2019 tournaments. Neither of these teams advanced past the Sweet Sixteen, but the program has been significantly better than Texas since Barnes left in 2015. 

In 2023, Barnes has his best Tennessee team yet. They rank 3rd in my member college basketball rankings and are a threat to win it all.

This team excels at defense. By my adjusted points per possession, Tennessee is the 2nd best team in the nation.

Tennessee is due for some regression, as they lead the nation in three point percentage allowed. Research by Ken Pomeroy shows a huge amount of randomness in this metric. Tennessee’s three point defense will regress.

Still, Tennessee shows extreme effort on defense. They are 9th in my adjusted two point percentage allowed. While I expect regression in three point defense, they should still be better than the college basketball average of 34.1% going forward because of their effort.

Tennessee is not as good on offense, as they rank 53rd in my adjusted point per possession. Santiago Vescovi has a sweet jump shot with his left handed release. However, they probably rely on him a bit too much. Vescovi is hitting 35.2% from three this season, a career low at Tennessee.

The offense probably leans on 5’9” point guard Zakai Zeigler to get a crucial bucket, and he’s making 46.6% of his two point shots (50.1% college basketball average, although the average will be lower for point guards). Now, Zeigler is out for the season with an ACL tear.

The biggest knock on Tennessee is the lack of elite talent. Their best player in terms of NBA potential is Julian Phillips, a 6’8” freshman wing. A recent mock draft from The Athletic has Phillips as the 24th pick in the 2023 draft.

Phillips returned to action against Alabama after missing four games with an injury. He seemed almost allergic to taking a shot, and his season statistics suggest why (46.0% from two, 27.0% from three). 

Phillips does seem like an athletic wing defender, the reason for his NBA potential. In an ideal world, Tennessee would trade Phillips to Gonzaga for Julian Strawther, a scoring machine that struggles to defend the dribble drive. Instead, Tennessee is stuck with another strong defender in Phillips.

Tennessee is an elite defensive team, but they might be a 1 seed to fade in the tournament because of the offense.

This is sample of The Power Rank 2023 Bracket Advice that focuses on the choice of champion, the most important pick in your bracket. The numbers are through Tuesday, February 23, 2023.

March Madness cheat sheet

This analysis was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service for sports betting that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

5-Nugget Saturday, February 25, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College basketball bet – Andy Molitor of Betsperts notes that Towson is on the second leg of a brutal road trip to end the season at North Carolina Wilmington. Even though Thursday’s game at Charleston didn’t impact the standings, Towson played to win and didn’t cut back on minutes for key players.

While North Carolina Wilmington has lost production from last season, Andy likes the talent of small forward Trazarien White. In addition, they are good at getting to the foul line and making those foul shots.

Andy sees value in North Carolina Wilmington +2.5, a number available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning. This also agrees with The Power Rank’s member numbers, which see this game as a pick.

For more of Andy’s insights into college basketball, check out the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists – In The Logic of Sports Betting, authors Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow offer a key but counterintuitive tip: look for a weak market first, then do your handicapping.

Betscope makes finding the market easy. For example, here are two available bets on Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists in Denver at Memphis:

  • Under 47.5, +110, DraftKings
  • Over 47.5, -110, BetMGM

This is an example of a no hold market. You could bet $100 at DK and $110 at MGM and end up with your original $210 no matter what happens.

With no take by the sports books, take your best guess at the sharp side. Jokic has averaged 46.5 for points, rebounds and assists this season, and the under is often the sharp side on NBA props. I see value on the under at DraftKings.

However, you might think the Joker goes crazy and goes over. Either way, use Betscope to find these no hold markets for NBA, NHL and college basketball games.

College basketball predictions – This is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank that you can also deduce from my college basketball rankings.

  • Purdue will beat Indiana by 6.5 points at home. 7’4″ Zach Edey has had an outstanding season, but one might question the talent that surrounds this big man. Purdue started the season outside the top 25 in the preseason AP poll, a surprising predictor of NCAA tournament games.
  • Alabama will beat Arkansas by 6.1 points at home. Alabama star freshman Brandon Miller might have legal trouble in his future. Despite media outrage over this, Alabama let Miller play on Thursday night, and he dropped 41 points in an overtime win over South Carolina.
  • Gonzaga will beat St. Mary’s by 4.9 points at home. This game features Gonzaga’s 2nd ranked offense by my adjusted points per possession against the 6th best defense of St. Mary’s.

Ultimate guide to college basketball analytics – Ever wonder how Ken Pomeroy calculates his college basketball rankings? Or maybe how he comes up with his predictions for each game?

Do matchups matter in college basketball? For example, Alabama’s only weakness on offense is turnovers. Are they at a significant disadvantage against a team like Tennessee that forces a lot of turnovers?

I provide a detailed answer to these questions in my ultimate guide to college basketball analytics. If you find it useful, please share with a friend as we head into March.

NFL humor – “But I have to believe any of us, even you (Kirk), can win.” So many hilarious lines in this episode of Gridiron Heights.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of The Logic of Sports Betting mentioned in this article. Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow lay out all the basic concepts you need to become a winner.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Members: NFL Draft analysis

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I’m going to keep a running tab of my NFL draft bets here.

Devon Witherspoon +300 first cornerback drafted

Friday, March 10, 2023.

Benjamin Solak of The Ringer joined the Deep Dive podcast to talk about the NFL draft and cornerbacks.

Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez is the favorite as the first CB taken, as he seems to check every box. However, Solek notes that some teams will have Devon Witherspoon ahead of him. The exceptional film on the Illinois star makes up for concerns about his size.

While the market has moved already, Solek suggested value in betting Witherspoon at +300 as the first CB taken (FanDuel).

Tyree Wilson +650 first defensive player drafted

Friday, February 24, 2023.

A few things I like here. First, FanDuel just opened up this market for first defensive player, and many other books do not yet have it. It’s important to get value before the market gets bet into and becomes more efficient.

Wilson, the edge rusher from Texas Tech, is not considered the first defensive player off the board.

  • Georgia DT Jalen Carter is projected higher, but there is more positional value in an edge rusher.
  • Alabama edge Will Anderson is a beast, and probably goes ahead of Wilson.

However, Daniel Jeremiah, the one NFL insider you must follow for betting the draft, has Wilson ahead of Anderson in his latest mock draft. “There’s a lot of love for Wilson around the league. His combination of size, length and production has teams very intrigued.”

In addition, two other insiders at NFL.com have Wilson in their top 5. Grinding the Mocks, which uses a wisdom of crowds approach, has Wilson as the 5th pick. There is certainly a path in which Wilson becomes the top defensive player.

Podcast: Andy Molitor on college basketball betting

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Andy Molitor, the Director of Content at Betsperts, joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. Highlights include:

  • His contrarian take on college basketball in March (4:28)
  • His data driven process for betting college basketball (10:30)
  • General outlook for the NCAA tournament (26:25)
  • Purdue (29:14)
  • Gonzaga (34:30)
  • Can a defense get better in the NCAA tournament by sheer effort? (38:15)
  • North Carolina (41:04)
  • Alabama (47:22)

We also had a great conversation on books at the end. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on: