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NFL playoff teasers – On the latest Props & Hops podcast, host Matt Landes and pro bettor Hitman broke down a number of games for moving spreads through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
For example, the markets have Jacksonville +2.5 at home. Even if you think the Los Angeles Chargers will win, there is plenty of room for Jacksonville to cover +8.5.
With the uncertainty of Baltimore’s QB situation, Cincinnati -8.5 to -2.5 is a great second leg. The markets may move further towards Cincinnati (Pinnacle had -10 on Friday), so it makes sense to bet this now.
Market movement – This is based on NFL data from Unabated odds screen for Circa sports book.
- Seattle at San Francisco – The spread reached San Francisco -10.5 on Monday before moving back towards Seattle. The weather report calls for rain and high winds, which makes it difficult to score the points to cover a big spread.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville – This game was at pick on Monday before moving to Chargers -2.5 later in the week. With the news that WR Mike Williams won’t play, some books like Caesars moved to Chargers -1.5 on Friday, but not Circa.
- Miami at Buffalo – This spread has been as low as Buffalo -9 this week but has moved to -14 with news that Skylar Thompson will start for Miami.
- Baltimore at Cincinnati – This spread was Cincinnati -6.5 on Monday and got as high as -10 at some books during the week.
Daniel Jones and turnovers – On The Football Analytics Show, Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points noted how well the Giants QB has been with avoiding turnovers this season. I asked him how much credit new coach Brian Daboll deserved for this play.
Kevin noted that Jones had become better at turnover prevention before Daboll arrived. The young QB lost over 100 expected points to fumbles and turnovers his rookie year. But then this number dropped from 80 to 60 over the next two seasons before going to 30 this season.
NFL injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information comes from ESPN.
- Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson will not play, as he tweeted about the instability of his knee. Tyler Huntley was limited in practice on Thursday, and Baltimore had not named a starter as of late Friday night.
- Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has a concussion, and back up Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a pinkie injury. Rookie Skylar Thompson will start against Buffalo.
- Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams is out against Jacksonville.
- New York Giants CB Adoree’ Jackson, along with other injured players, looks ready to go against Minnesota.
Garrett Riley – While Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has been loyal to his assistant coaches, he fired his offensive coordinator this week and brought on Garrett Riley of TCU.
Here are how Riley’s offenses have fared in this three seasons as OC:
- 2020, SMU, 46th.
- 2021, SMU, 28th.
- 2022, TCU, 25th.
These results are solid but not elite. The success of Riley’s older brother at Oklahoma and USC probably helped him get this upgrade.
Gonzaga basketball – Up 1 point in the final seconds at BYU, Gonzaga played a magnificent defensive possession and didn’t allow a shot to hit the rim. This gave Gonzaga their third straight conference road win of 5 or fewer points.
However, defense has been an issue this season. Gonzaga ranks 78th in my points per possession adjusted for opponent, as they no long have shot blocker Chet Holmgren.
Gonzaga is still elite on offense (8th in adjusted points per possession), but their defense will need to improve to contend for a national title. My numbers like them to win by 19.6 at home against Portland on Saturday.
College football humor – “We’ll make this exit interview brief. I know TCU has that rehab appointment to get to.”
Football betting with a PhD edge
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