Finally!! Win probabilities for the 2019 NCAA tournament

The field of 68 is set, and I’ve used my college basketball team rankings to calculate the win probabilities for each team. 

In addition, the results gets shown in an interactive data visualization. Hover over a team to get its probability to advance through each round. Hover over a game to see the odds that each team wins that game.

To check it out, click here.

You can get the tournament win probabilities by hovering over the center dot.  However, sometimes it’s easier to look at these results in a list. 

Here are the win probabilities for the top 20 teams in 2019.

1. Virginia, 21.0%
2. Duke, 18.2%
3. North Carolina, 12.5%
4. Gonzaga, 12.0%
5. Michigan State, 10.9%
6. Tennessee, 6.5%
7. Michigan, 6.3%
8. Kentucky, 4.5%
9. Texas Tech, 2.2%
10. Purdue, 1.0%
11. Florida State, 0.8%
12. Wisconsin, 0.5%
13. Houston, 0.5%
14. Virginia Tech, 0.5%
15. Kansas, 0.4%
16. Iowa State, 0.4%
17. LSU, 0.3%
18. Auburn, 0.3%
19. Buffalo, 0.2%
20. Louisville, 0.2%

You can use these numbers to apply the contrarian ideas I write about in my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

Or, if you don’t have much time, you can let me do the work for you.  My full bracket advice optimizes your chances to win your pool.  To learn more, click here.

Podcast: Adam Stanco on predicting March Madness, Part 2

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is the second of two with Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network. He’s a hoops expert and educates us on:

  • the player that makes Virginia a national title contender
  • whether Gonzaga can make a deep run in the tournament
  • the team with more NBA talent than any other college basketball team, even Duke

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Introducing: Pure Bracket Wisdom

Pure Bracket Wisdom is a daily podcast to get you ready to win your NCAA tournament pool in 2019.

To check out the trailer, click here:

The 10 part daily series launches on March 11th, 2019.  To subscribe on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Adam Stanco on predicting March Madness, Part 1

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network joins me to break down the top college basketball teams.  In this first of two episodes, we get into:

  • Duke, with and without Zion Williamson
  • Whether Michigan has enough offense to make a deep tourney run
  • Whether Michigan or Michigan State has a higher ceiling

Adam is a hoops expert and has an uncanny ability to catch things outside the numbers.  Remember, thirty some games is still a small sample size.

There’s also an announcement for my new March Madness audio project.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Joe Peta on predictive golf analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Joe Peta, writer, data scientist and Stanford MBA, joins me.  Joe cut this teeth on baseball analytics but has recently started working on golf with his book A 2019 Masters Preview.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The political figure Joe did work for as an accountant (2:35 to start Joe’s story)
  • The Strokes Gained framework for evaluating golfers (8:25)
  • How to predict golf tournaments like the Masters (24:38)
  • Why variance plays a much bigger role in golf than team sports, and how this relates to poker (15:10)
  • Evaluating Tiger Woods, both in the past and into 2019 (32:40)

I’ve always respected Joe’s work, and anyone who likes golf or data should enjoy this conversation.  Also, check out his new book A 2019 Masters Preview, which you can consume in one sitting.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.