THE POWER RANK

World Cup 2022 Match Predictions – First Matches in Group Play

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These predictions come from world football/soccer rankings that take match results from the past five years and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions alone will not beat the market but can be a useful tool in handicapping.

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Qatar hosting Ecuador – Qatar has a 41.4% chance to win. Ecuador has a 34.2% chance to win. There is a 24.4% chance for a tie.

Monday, November 21, 2022

England vs Iran – England has a 60.3% chance to win. Iran has a 13.7% chance to win. There is a 26.0% chance for a tie.

Senegal vs Netherlands – Senegal has a 15.7% chance to win. Netherlands has a 62.0% chance to win. There is a 22.3% chance for a tie.

United States vs Wales – United States has a 38.3% chance to win. Wales has a 29.2% chance to win. There is a 32.5% chance for a tie.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia – Argentina has a 68.8% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 9.7% chance to win. There is a 21.5% chance for a tie.

Denmark vs Tunisia – Denmark has a 63.1% chance to win. Tunisia has a 12.3% chance to win. There is a 24.6% chance for a tie.

Mexico vs Poland – Mexico has a 37.1% chance to win. Poland has a 36.2% chance to win. There is a 26.8% chance for a tie.

France vs Australia – France has a 66.5% chance to win. Australia has a 12.8% chance to win. There is a 20.6% chance for a tie.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Morocco vs Croatia – Morocco has a 28.0% chance to win. Croatia has a 48.0% chance to win. There is a 24.0% chance for a tie.

Germany vs Japan – Germany has a 45.6% chance to win. Japan has a 31.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Spain vs Costa Rica – Spain has a 71.9% chance to win. Costa Rica has a 8.3% chance to win. There is a 19.9% chance for a tie.

Belgium vs Canada – Belgium has a 62.0% chance to win. Canada has a 18.7% chance to win. There is a 19.3% chance for a tie.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Switzerland vs Cameroon – Switzerland has a 63.6% chance to win. Cameroon has a 13.2% chance to win. There is a 23.3% chance for a tie.

Uruguay vs South Korea – Uruguay has a 49.1% chance to win. South Korea has a 21.8% chance to win. There is a 29.1% chance for a tie.

Portugal vs Ghana – Portugal has a 79.4% chance to win. Ghana has a 3.7% chance to win. There is a 17.0% chance for a tie.

Brazil vs Serbia – Brazil has a 67.7% chance to win. Serbia has a 11.4% chance to win. There is a 20.9% chance for a tie.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

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7-Nugget Saturday, November 19, 2022

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Fading Argentina in the World Cup – While the markets have Lionel Messi and Argentina as the second favorite behind Brazil, the numbers disagree. It doesn’t matter whether you look at team based metrics like my rankings at The Power Rank or player based metrics like those of Twenty First Group.

You can fade Argentina by betting another team to win Group C. Mexico has a high floor but low ceiling as an international team; they have made it out of their group and lost in the Round of 16 in the last seven World Cups.

Poland is a solid European team, well organized and 22nd in my rankings. They have the luxury of goal scoring machine Robert Lewandowski of FC Barcelona.

My numbers give Mexico and Poland a 18.2% and 19.5% chance to winning the group. This suggests value in betting both at +550 at FanDuel to win Group C.

Washington at Houston, NFL Week 11 – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola notes that Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has had 10 turnover worthy plays in his last 4 starts. Only half of those plays turned into actual turnovers. His 6.9% turnover worth play rate is highest among all QBs starting this week by a 1.3% gap.

Rob isn’t high on Houston QB Davis Mills but notes that he protects the ball well. Mills has produced a 100.5 QB rating in 11 career home starts, a massive improvement from his 71.3 QB rating away from home. Houston comes off of a very misleading loss in which they made six trips into the Giants red zone and came away with one touchdown.

Rob likes Houston +3 at home. You can check out all of the great work Rob and his team do over at the sports betting media company The Hammer.

College basketball predictions – This a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank.

  • Gonzaga will beat Kentucky by 3.4 points at home. Gonzaga got beat down by 19 points at Texas as a 2 point underdog. They are favored to get back to their winning ways at home against Kentucky.
  • Michigan will beat Ohio by 15.8 points at home. Michigan lost to Arizona State by 25 as a 7 point favorite in Brooklyn this week. That’s what happens when a team goes 4-22 from three. They should rebound against a MAC opponent at home.
  • Indiana will beat Miami (OH) by 25.8 at a neutral site. Indiana got a tough 2 point road win at Xavier on Friday night as Trayce Jackson-Davis had 30 points. It should be much easier against Miami Ohio at neutral site in Indianapolis.

College basketball predictions get posted the day before games for members of The Power Rank to take advantage of opening lines.

USC at UCLA – The total in this rivalry game opened at 82.5, but it has since moved to 76.5 as of Saturday morning. There is more to this drop than the sticker shock of a total in the 80s.

On Wednesday’s Bet the Board podcast, Brad Powers notes the abysmal field conditions at the Rose Bowl as an undercover factor that may limit both dynamic offenses. Brad has watched more than 100 games at the Rose Bowl over three-plus decades and has never seen the field as sloppy as it was in UCLA’s upset loss to Arizona last Saturday.

If we see similar conditions tonight, it’ll be an uphill battle for the Trojans and Bruins to light up the scoreboard, regardless of the edges the offenses will have over the defenses.

Key Injuries – The NFL injury information comes from ESPN, while the college football information comes from USA Today unless otherwise noted.

  • Arizona QB Kyler Murray is a game time decision because of a hamstring injury against San Francisco (game in Mexico City on Monday night). Back up Colt McCoy, who played last week against the Los Angeles Rams, has been limited in practice this week because of a knee injury.
  • Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is questionable against Carolina because of an illness.
  • Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is off the injury list (concussion) and will play against New Orleans.
  • Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is probable to play against Mississippi after missing last week against LSU with a shoulder injury.
  • Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is questionable against Iowa with an upper body injury.
  • Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders has missed the last two games. While he is listed as questionable against Oklahoma in the Bedlam rivalry game, Sanders told the media that he will play.

Limiting sharps – The Washington Post ran an excellent profile of the difficulties faced by professional sports bettors, as online sports books have gotten more aggressive with limiting sharp bettors. The article calls out DraftKings, BetMGM and PointsBet as the books most likely to limit sharps, while Caesars and WynnBET offer the highest limits.

While you should have some healthy skepticism over how main stream media covers sports betting, the Post did speak with pro bettors Rufus Peabody, Rob Pizzola and Spanky and book maker Chris Andrews of South Point. This article is definitely worth your time.

NFL humor – First and 10 deep in enemy territory. What play should you call? How about having a running back throw to a 45 year old QB? What could possibly go wrong?

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
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Other emails offer analysis of college football, NFL and World Cup games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

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Ensemble win probabilities for World Cup 2022

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The biggest sporting event in the world starts on Sunday. To get you prepared, The Power Rank runs its own win probabilities for all 32 teams based on world football/soccer rankings that take match results and adjust for opponent based on a propriety algorithm.

Despite the sophistication of my predictive analytics, it is always more accurate to combine predictions from a number of accurate sources. The win probabilities below come from a combination of the markets, my numbers and a few other sources such as FiveThirtyEight.

Let’s take a look at the results for a few teams.

Brazil, 18.3% win probability, highest – There is no predictor, market, data or otherwise, that does not make Brazil the favorite. Despite all this talent, it’s still better than 4 in 5 that Brazil does not win the World Cup.

Argentina, 11.5% win probability, second highest – While the markets have Argentina as a strong second favorite, the data and analytics do not like them. My numbers at The Power Rank have Argentina with the 8th highest win probability, and FiveThirtyEight has them at 4th.

In addition, the player composite rankings from Twenty First Group and Transfer Markt also do not like Argentina, as both metrics rank the country 7th. Lionel Messi is still a great player, but he is now 35 years old and at the twilight of his career. 

Part of the belief in Argentina stems from a 1-0 win over Brazil in the Copa America final in the summer of 2021. However, Brazil dominated that match. Argentina might be the one team to fade in the markets.

England, 8.6% win probability, 5th highest – England never ranks that well as a team. In my rankings at The Power Rank, they rank 8th after an appearance in the final of Euro 2021. This is the highest they have been over the last decade. England has the 7th highest win probability by FiveThirtyEight, a model that is mostly team based.

However, England has top notch talent. Transfer Markt rates England as having the most valuable World Cup squad, and the metrics of Twenty First Group have them second behind only Brazil.

United States, 0.9% win probability, 15th highest – Don’t expect the US to win this international tournament. However, if they beat Wales, they should emerge from Group B along with England.

However, do not discount Iran, the 32nd best team in my rankings. Iran has Mehdi Taremi, an excellent goal scorer for FC Porto, a top team in Portugal and regular Champions League participant.

Become a member of The Power Rank

While you can check out the win probability for all 32 teams over at The Power Rank, only members of The Power Rank get access to all of these ensemble win probabilities.

These more accurate numbers give you the best chance to win any World Cup pool. In addition, I provide my advice on how to win your pool (hint: it’s a lot like how to win a different tournament pool that happens in March).

In addition, members get access to:

  • College football and NFL spread and total predictions
  • College basketball spread predictions, available the day before the games get played
  • My research into American football, such as on home and rest advantage

To learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank, click here.

Podcast: Matt Freedman on betting the NFL in 2022

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Matt Freedman, the director of content at FantasyPros and BettingPros, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • The hilarious way his fantasy football career got started (4:38)
  • Matt’s NFL model and handicapping process (12:56)
  • Are NFL power ratings useful? (19:19)
  • NFL home advantage (24:27)
  • A Week 11 NFL bet on Chicago at Atlanta (28:02)
  • Dallas at Minnesota (32:24)
  • Detroit at New York Giants (36:20)
  • San Francisco vs Arizona and QB injury adjustments (39:00)
  • A surprising prediction for the rest of the NFL season (44:06)

Matt has been on the podcast to talk NFL player props and draft betting, so I was thrilled to learn that he was digging into betting sides and totals this season. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Support the podcast on Patreon.