Members: How schedule adjustments work in college football

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Podcast: Rufus Peabody on predictive football analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor. He is also half of Massey-Peabody Analytics and the Bet the Process podcast.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How the Massey-Peabody model works (1:52)
  • The randomness of turnovers, both in college football and the NFL (3:06 to 7:02) To check out the Nebraska study, click here.
  • How Rufus deals with fast moving teams like Wisconsin and Michigan (8:30)
  • Whether Rufus is betting Miami in the NFL (12:55)
  • How to balance a model with subjective adjustments, with USC as an example (15:16)
  • How to construct a player based model for football (19:08)

Rufus is a pioneer in data driven predictions for football, and I think you’ll really enjoy this conversation.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

The Football Analytics Show is also available on Google Podcasts, Spotify and Stitcher.

Members: How to understand early season predictions

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Podcast: Preston Johnson on analytics for football betting

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Preston Johnson, professional sports bettor who uses analytics in his craft. He also appears on ESPN’s Daily Wager and writes for ESPN.com.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • how Preston went from betting to having an edge (3:58)
  • the two types of numbers he uses in football handicapping (8:24)
  • Michigan at Wisconsin (10:10)
  • how to balance preseason priors with data from the current season (13:34)
  • basic, data driven advice on NFL teasers (20:54)

In the course of our discussion, we talk about Syracuse, SMU and Maryland for college football and Denver and Green Bay in the NFL.

Preston talked about his strength of schedule adjustments, and how he compares them with my numbers (11:25), which are available to members of The Power Rank. You can learn more about a membership here.

Perhaps most important, Preston educated us on the Francesinha, a Portuguese sandwich.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on new discoveries in football analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Dr. Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus. He has his Ph.D. from the University of Nebraska and worked for years as a math professor at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • whether pass rush or coverage matters more for pass defense (2:19)
  • when the defense rushes the passer, whether the offensive line or quarterback has more influence in reducing this pressure (8:43)
  • how the best coaches instinctively understand analytics (15:02)
  • how Eric’s player based model for predicting the outcome of games works (19:40)
  • the intriguing team that could turn into Jacksonville 3.0 (29:26)

Eric does excellent work on the frontier of football analytics, and you’ll enjoy hearing him talk about his results.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

The Football Analytics is also available on Google Podcasts, Spotify and Stitcher.

For Eric’s article on whether offensive line or quarterbacks own pressure, you need a subscription to PFF.