In 2020, rookie Justin Herbert took over at QB for the Los Angeles Chargers in their second game. They immediately went 0-6 in one score games.

It was fashionable to blame coach Anthony Lynn for these failures as Herbert put up great numbers. Record in one score games regresses to the mean of 0.500, but Lynn was putting this prediction to the test. For example, he called a run play with :24 left in the game and no timeouts against the Bills.

The Chargers finished the season 4-0 in one score games, as even Lynn couldn’t defeat the forces of regression. This didn’t help his job security though, as he got fired after a 7-9 record.

As Brandon Staley takes over as head coach, expectations are high for the Chargers in 2021. The biggest reason is Herbert as he enters his second year. In 2020, he posted a 67% completion percentage, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

While these are remarkable numbers for a rookie, there are some worrying signs. For pass offense, I look at success rate on pass plays after my adjustments for opponent. In 2020, the Chargers ranked 20th.

In the Football Outsiders Almanac, Derrik Klassen notes that while second year QBs often make a jump, this is usually because of mediocrity in their rookie years. This doesn’t apply to Herbert.

Moreover, the Chargers have big question marks on defense. Staley led the Rams to a resurgence on defense in 2020, a coaching performance that led his new head coaching gig. But this was a one year sample size in Staley’s first year as an NFL coordinator.

This off season, the Chargers lost CB Casey Hayward Jr, a stalwart in their secondary the past 5 seasons. They expect to replace him with second round draft pick Asante Samuel Jr. from Florida State. CB Michael Davis and Chris Harris Jr. return, but the latter is 32 years old and past his prime.

The Chargers do get Derwin James back this season. The safety excelled in all aspects of the game as a rookie in 2018. However, he played only 299 snaps in 2019 and missed all of 2020 due to injury.

I intended to focus this newsletter on the Chargers at Washington in week 1. My predictions like Washington by 1.2 points, and I talked about betting Washington +1 on FanDuel’s Covering the Spread podcast this week.

However, the market has shifted to favoring Washington by 1.5 points. With no value, I can’t suggest that game anymore. That would be more shitty than pouring Bud Light down the throat of a beer aficionado.

This market move suggests a downgrade on the Chargers. However, their win total hasn’t budged (9.5 wins, +110 to go over on FanDuel). This discrepancy might make sense if a key player like Herbert were out for the Washington game. However, the Chargers have no key injuries.

Normally, I would never suggest betting a mature win totals market right now. But due to the large line movement in another strong market, I like the Chargers under 9.5 wins, -110 on DraftKings.

Sports betting with a PhD edge

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There is an easy way to use analytics as an NFL offense: call more play action. On these plays, the offense fakes a run, gets the defense to commit towards the line of scrimmage, and then throws the ball.

Play action is more efficient than other pass plays. More on that later.

But my favorite aspect of play action comes from analysis by Josh Hermsmeyer. In a 2018 study on FiveThirtyEight, he found that it didn’t matter how often an offense called play action.

Using NFL player tracking data, Hermsmeyer quantified the wasted motion of the middle linebacker. The amount of wasted motion was constant whether the offense had called its first or twelfth play action. 

It is amazing that NFL defenses care so much to stop the run.

In an episode of the Preview Series on The Football Analytics Show podcast, I talked about how Buffalo OC Brian Daboll has used play action. According to Pro Football Reference, Daboll called play action on 21.3% of pass plays in 2019, 18th most in the NFL. This increased to 30.4% in 2020 (4th) as the offense exploded under QB Josh Allen.

Because of Allen, Daboll and a talented defense, Buffalo is a primary Super Bowl contender.

However, data does suggest that play action might be losing its edge. Pro Football Reference has published play action data for each team the past two seasons and gave the following NFL average:

• 2019: 8.07 yards per attempt
• 2020: 7.75 yards per attempt

In 2019, an NFL offense gained 1.09 more yards per attempt on play action than other pass plays. This dropped to 0.65 in 2020.

This drop most likely comes from noise.

But if there is some signal in these results, it suggests that defenses are adapting and not caring so much about stopping the run. Of course, it is crazy to think all defenses will evolve at once. That’s as crazy as thinking you can get a dopamine addicted Twitter troll to read Infinite Jest.

Let’s speculate about one team that takes a modern approach and doesn’t get fooled by play action: Kansas City. The reason is simple: they don’t care to stop the run at all.

Over the last 3 seasons, Andy Reid’s defense has finished dead last in my adjusted rush success rate. Dead last. If the Chiefs don’t care to stop the run, then they most likely won’t get fooled by play action.

Kansas City isn’t an excellent pass defense, but they did rank 11th in my adjusted pass success rate in 2020. In addition, they have Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball.

When I’m watching Kansas City host Cleveland on Sunday, I’ll be watching how their linebackers react to run plays. If they wait until the running back has the ball before approaching the line of scrimmage, it gives this Super Bowl contender one more edge.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

The analytics are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL. If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you’ll immediately get my information on NFL QBs to fade in 2021.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”