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College basketball player prop – Auburn’s Johni Broome excels in every facet of the game except free throw shooting. The 6’10” center scores, rebounds, blocks shots and has even shown a flair for great passes.
Broome is the leader of a deep Auburn team that could contend for the national title. He might not continue to hit 37.1% of this threes (free throw and three point percentages are correlated for players), but he leads an Auburn team ranked 6th in my most trusted college basketball numbers.
As with most star players, Broome has seen more minutes in SEC play. He hasn’t scored less than 14 points in any of his last 10 games and has averaged 16.3 points per game this season. There is value in Johnny Broome over 15.5 points, -139 available at Caesars.
Denver at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA – Pro bettor Eddie Walls forecasts a slow, grind it out affair in this playoff atmosphere type game.
Denver plays at the 28th slowest pace out of 30 NBA teams. In addition, the Nuggets have a top five defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.
Denver guard Jamal Murray is questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, Eddie notes how the Lakers play defense against top competition. Even though the total has dropped this morning, he likes Denver at Los Angeles Lakers under 228, -110 available at Ceasars.
Same Game Parlays – “It’s not just hard. It’s an impossible problem from the operator side to get it right all the time.” These are the words on Ed Miller, co-author the book Interception – The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting, on SGPs.
On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Ed explained that sports book use simulations to price a SGP. These simulations must follow which basketball players tend to play together, and whether this changes.
With the impossibility of getting these factors right all the time, you can beat SGPs by following the sport for the little details the simulation gets wrong. In hockey, Ed gives the example of when two players begin to play on different instead of the same line.
Ed also talked about other ways to beat the modern sports book in a must listen episode of the podcast. Also, see below for an opportunity to get his book Interception.
Drafting NFL wide receivers – Tej Seth of Sumer Sports looked at which NFL combine metrics correlate with draft position and NFL productivity. Examining these two factors reveals which metrics might be overvalued.
For NFL wide receivers, vertical jump and bench press had the highest correlation with actual productivity in the league (measured by total yards per season). Surprisingly, 40 yard dash time had the least correlation of any combine metric.
Not surprisingly, 40 yard dash time had the highest correlation with draft position. NFL decision makers overestimate the implication of speed for wide receivers. For example:
- John Ross, 9th pick in the 2017 draft.
- Henry Ruggs, 12pick in the 2020 draft.
Also, you’ll never guess the NFL combine metric that correlates most for QBs in this fascinating work from Tej.
Betting humor – You know sports betting has gone mainstream when SNL gets involved. If only one could bet on friends.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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