Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL interception prop – Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder has thrown one interception in his career. The second year player has a 0.5% interception rate over 203 attempts.

However, interception rate is not a good predictor of future interceptions. Instead, my research has shown the utility of looking at bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended.

Ridder has a bad ball rate of 13.8%, worse than the NFL average of 11.6% since the start of the 2020 season. However, even if we assume Ridder is NFL average at throwing interceptions, my model gives a 48.9% chance he throws a pick against Jacksonville in London.

There is value in Ridder over 0.5 interceptions, +144 at FanDuel. Members of The Power Rank have access to other NFL interception props for week 4.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, NFL Week 4 – On the Forward Progress podcast, an All-Star line up of betting professionals made the case for the Saints.

• Hitman does not consider Jameis Winston much of a downgrade from Derek Carr, who is questionable due to a shoulder injury.
• Rob Pizzola noted the strength of the New Orleans defense and likes that RB Alvin Camara is back for the offense.
• Dr. Eric Eager doesn’t think that Philadelphia is that good, and Tampa Bay got thumped by the Eagles last week.

The entire panel does not always agree on a side, but they like New Orleans. As of Saturday morning, you can grab New Orleans -3, -118 at DraftKings.

Catch Forward Progress live every Wednesday on YouTube for invaluable NFL information and bets.

The Unabated line – Based on the polling of sharp bettors, the Unabated line aggregates the market at sharp sports books. I’ve found it to be an excellent predictor of market movement.

For example, the Unabated line had Pittsburgh -3, +109 at Houston yesterday when I posted it for members. Since then, DraftKings and FanDuel moved from -2.5 to -3.

Here are some insights from the Unabated line.

• CFB: USC -22, +100 at Colorado. The markets are leaning against Coach Prime hype, as USC -21.5 is still available for this noon Eastern kickoff.
• NFL: Philadelphia -9.5, +101 vs Washington. The Eagles haven’t looked great, but they host Washington. FanDuel has Philadelphia -8.5 as of Saturday morning.
• NFL: Denver -3, -109 at Chicago. It might make you throw up to bet it, but there is probably value in Chicago +3.5, -118 (DraftKings and FanDuel).

Sign up for Unabated to get access to this remarkable tool for all games.

Do you make this mistake in predicting football? As an analytics person, you know better than to judge based on a small sample size. But do you know why this is so difficult?

The most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show digs into the cognitive science behind our tenuous relationship with randomness. I give you lots of examples, both old and new. I hope it feels like a short audiobook, but replacing the boredom with music.

NFL humor – This is ESPN these days. Someone complains about something getting too much attention, only to bring it more attention (if that’s possible). Mad Dog is entertaining though.

Enough with @taylorswift13 Let me just watch the games!!!! @FirstTake

For more videos of Mad Dog Unleashed download or visit the SiriusXM App https://t.co/Ko0A3kMSJT pic.twitter.com/Z69xx13oql

— Chris Mad Dog Russo (@MadDogUnleashed) September 27, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Carolina at Seattle, NFL Week 3 – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Tanner Busick, the Head of Analytics at Dr. Bob Sports, talked about a number of reasons he likes Carolina side.

First, Carolina has struggled against two aggressive man coverage defenses this season, as their receivers struggle to get separation. Seattle plays more zone defense, and Carolina has been much better against zone than man coverage this season.

Tanner’s model makes Seattle a 3.5 point favorite, and he talked about the value in Carolina +6 on the podcast. Now, veteran QB Andy Dalton will start instead rookie Bryce Young, but Tanner does not think this is a downgrade.

This implies value in Carolina +5.5 at Seattle, a widely available number on Saturday morning. Check out The Football Analytics Show for two other NFL bets Tanner was kind enough to provide.

NFL touchdown prop – On the Covering the Spread podcast, JJ Zachariason, founder of Late Round Fantasy Football, likes Jacksonville RB Travis Etienne to score a touchdown.

As an 8 point favorite against Houston, Jacksonville will more likely have a favorable game script. This implies more carries for Etienne late in the game.

In addition, JJ notes that DraftKings has a price -110 for Etienne anytime touchdown scorer while other books have odds with a higher probability. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has this prop at -175 while Caesars is at -127.

There is value in Etienne -110 anytime touchdown scorer.

Ohio State at Notre Dame, College Football Week 4 – On the Cover 3 podcast, betting expert Bud Elliott talked about the strength of the two defenses and how they might approach this game:

• Notre Dame’s defense will force Ohio State to run the ball.
• Ohio State’s defense will see if Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman can throw outside to his wide receivers.

Bud has enough doubts on both of these items to like under 55.5 points. In addition, the Unabated line, a powerful predictor that comes from an ensemble of sharp sports books, has a total of 55 (-103 fair price).

Ohio State and Notre Dame kick off at 7:30pm Eastern on Saturday in a must watch game among a very compelling week 4.

Football Analytics With Python and R – As Dr. Eric Eager writes in the introduction of his new book:

We wrote this book for people who want an introduction to data science but do not want to learn from classic datasets such as flower measurements from the 1930s.

In Chapter 2, Eric asks whether QB performance on short or deep passes is more stable. He uses 20 yards in the air as the barrier between short and long passes.

Looking at yards per attempt from season to season, Eric found more predictability for short than long passes. In fact, the R-squared value for long passes is only 0.054, which implies a large random element on these deep throws.

This week, Eric’s book Football Analytics with Python & R was released as a paperback. I have used O’Reilly books in many aspects of my technical education, and Eric’s book will launch many careers in football analytics.

College football humor – Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz needs his unit to score 25 points per game to keep his job. With a 41 point performance against Western Michigan, Ferentz had an outburst of his own that makes Coach Prime seem like a preschool teacher.

👀Brian Ferentz responds to his critics pic.twitter.com/4WKwUTwwnh

— Heavens! (@HeavensFX) September 18, 2023

Does it matter that the video was a fake? Nah, it’s still funny.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for members of The Power Rank.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”