THE POWER RANK

MLS Cup Final Preview

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Tough road for Houston
Taking on LA at home
Expect to see stars

The Power Rank uses past results to determine what is likely to happen in future matches. In that spirt, we’ll look back at the MLS Conference Finals to gain some insight into what will happen in the MLS Cup Final because they demonstrated a lot about the class of teams in MLS.

Starting in the Eastern Conference Final, the Houston Dynamo (#4) emerged victorious with a 2-0 win in Kansas City (#3). As someone with ties to both Houston and St. Louis, I was quite pleased with the result. However, the match itself was not a particularly great one. Relatively few good chances were created, with KC usually being contented with crosses into the box. Dynamo playmaker Brad Davis went down in a physical first half, but Houston stayed in the match by being compact in defense. Neither side really demonstrated a strong ability to possess and move the ball at will. In the end, even without Davis, Houston was still able to score off set-pieces while each side was unable to score when they had numbers in the box. In fact, Sporting Kansas City’s next best chances were off poor back-passes by Houston. While SKC’s season ended, they are a young team with a strong offense, so expect more from them next year.

Meanwhile out west, Real Salt Lake (#5) travelled to the Home Depot Center to take on the top ranked LA Galaxy (#1). This game captured how the various numbers that we use in the Power Rank relate to what’s going on on the pitch. First, the half a goal advantage for the home team was on full display on the Galaxy’s opening goal, which came from Landon Donovan by way of the penalty spot following a foul on Omar Gonzalez. The foul was definitely soft, and a significant portion of home field advantage is due to referee bias. Perhaps that was the case here, but fortunately, this was the only time the ref played a significant role in this game. What we got to witness for the rest of the game was a good team taking on a great one.

Here at the Power Rank, we consider that either team could win any game, so the objective of the rank is try to understand which team has the advantage. In soccer, advantage amounts to creating and finishing chances, while denying the other side the same opportunities. Quantifying a “good chance” is very difficult, but we can use human intuition in concert with the quantitative rankings to help understand the game. Prior to the frenetic finish, Salt Lake City had four really good chances. Three came off set pieces, with Alvaro Saborio scoring a nice header while Josh Saunders did well to block a short range effort that fell to Robbie Russell. Kyle Beckerman also hit the post after a set-piece scrum, while Fabian Espindola did the same following a good individual effort in the box. Had they converted all four chances, they would have won the game. However, it speaks to the difficulty of finishing in professional soccer that four goals is an unusually large tally, so while possible, scoring all four in would be an improbable event.

While it’s clear that Real Salt Lake is a good team, it’s telling that Galaxy striker Robbie Keane had five good chances just himself; more than RSL generated as a team in the first 80 minutes. Unfortunately for Salt Lake City, starting center back Nat Borchers was out while partner Jamison Olave was injured and not at 100%. That said, the real difference in this match was the play in the midfield. LA did an excellent job of working the ball through their midfield into good attacking positions. The forwards had support on the wings and through the center, resulting in many good chances for the Galaxy. In fact, the one fault in their game was poor finishing. RSL was not able to match this level of play, and were unable to effectively remove pressure from their back line. Their main problem was a lack of linking up between Kyle Beckerman and Javier Morales. Beckerman had a good game and played well on the ball, but couldn’t establish a rhythm with Morales, who often would up drifting wide. Instead, their attack revolved around getting the ball up to Espindola and letting him try to take on several defenders without support. In fact, aside from the first leg against Seattle (#2), Real Salt Lake has been unable to replicate their midfield partnership that was so effective last season.

So what did we learn from the conference finals? Well, the first thing is that Sporting Kansas City is not one of the elite teams in MLS. While good, this young side still has some growing to do and needs to resolve some defensive issues. We also learned that Real Salt Lake is not the same team they were last year. Certainly having Morales absent for most of the season was a significant loss, but he has yet to be the impact player he was before his injury. Only time will tell if this is temporary. Most definitely though, the LA Galaxy are firmly established as the class of MLS. They are 0.11 goals better than the second ranked Sounders, or put another way, they are over 10% better than the next best team based on the range of rankings.

Looking ahead to the MLS Cup Final, we’ll have Houston at Los Angeles. That’s right: at. While the final rotates between MLS cities, this year it takes place at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California. This makes the Galaxy 0.76 goal favorites to lift the MLS Cup. Win or lose though, it is highly unlikely the Dynamo could win by a large enough margin to overtake LA in the rankings, or even match Seattle to join the elite. So in the end, credit to the LA Galaxy for having a great season and setting the pace in Major League Soccer.

MLS Conference Finals Preview

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LA/RSL
It’s only one year too late
Still should be great though

This weekend witnesses the MLS Eastern and Western Conference Finals to determine which teams will compete for the MLS Cup. The action in the east has thus far been somewhat underwhelming, with the Dynamo’s (#5) visit to Philadelphia (#7) producing the only fireworks. A lackluster 1-0 win for Houston at home was enough to see off the Union. Similarly, Sporting KC (#3) registered 2-0 wins, both in Denver and at home, over a depleted Rapids (#10) side to advance 4-0 on aggregate. Colorado was the lowest ranked team to make it into the semifinals, and they showed it. Both Houston and Philly have reside in the top half of The Power Rank, but only Kansas City have truly distinguished themselves. They will be 0.64 goal favorites over the visiting Dynamo in the Eastern Conference Final.

As has been the case in recent seasons, the most exciting action was out west. Real Salt Lake (#4) traveled to Seattle (#2) with a three goal lead and chose to play a defensive game against the league’s number one offense. Despite an onslaught in the first half, their gamble seemed to be paying off as the Sounders just couldn’t find the back of the net. But things turned around just after halftime, and the last half hour was played with Seattle needing just one more score to force extra time. However, it was not to be, and the number two ranked team bowed out of the playoffs. After two legs against strong competition, it’s difficult to tell which RSL will show up. In Rio Tinto, RSL played very well, while in Seattle they were lucky the Sounders didn’t strike another time because they created few chances of their own.

That said, last year we would have begged for a game featuring LA and Salt Lake. This year we’ll get it, thanks to a 3-1 aggregate win for LA (#1) over the Red Bulls (#6). We were treated to a tie between the #1 and #2 ranked teams… not in terms of their rank, but their payroll. Unfortunately, each team was missing a key central midfielder in Juninho and Marquez following a brawl on the frozen tundra of Red Bull Arena (I never thought I’d write that!). My MVP candidate Omar Gonzalez did not acquit himself well in this match as he continually defended Red Bull striker Luke Rodgers from the outside. Unfortunately for Gonzalez, the goal is inside, and Rodgers leveled New York within four minutes off a great through-ball from Thierry Henry. While it looked for the first half-hour like the Red Bulls might get a winner, LA controlled much of the last hour and got two goals to see them through. They’ll host RSL as 0.74 goal favorites.

Based on each team’s post-season performance, we’re now in a position where four of the top five teams will be playing in the conference finals. Houston is now clearly upper-middle class, while LA is the best MLS side by nearly a tenth of goal. Only they and the now-eliminated Sounders can claim to be elite. Seattle’s 2-0 home victory may not have been enough to see them through to the next round, but at least it helped them regain most of their lost Power Rank rating. Meanwhile, Sporting KC and Real Salt Lake can’t decide if they’re upper-middle class or elite. RSL started the year on top and dropped off, while KC worked their way up. A win by either of them over the LA Galaxy will probably be enough to add a third team to the summit of MLS.

MLS Conference Semi-Finals 2nd Leg Preview

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The second legs of the MLS conference semi-finals take place Wednesday and Thursday, so today we’ll offer a short preview of them. Last weekend’s action led to a clearer separation at the top of The Power Rank, both in terms the top four and the top team. By virtue of their 1-0 win in New York (#6) and the Sounder’s (#2) 0-3 drubbing at at the hands of Real Salt Lake (#4), the Galaxy (#1) have established themselves as the class of MLS. They will be heavily favored to advance in LA this weekend over the Red Bulls as 0.81 goal favorites, in addition to having an away goal in hand.

Perhaps the most intriguing first leg match was Seattle vs. RSL in Salt Lake City. Real was finally able to pair a healthy and fit Javier Morales with Kyle Beckerman in the midfield, and they played like the Real Salt Lake of last season. They dominated the Sounders, and even though their first goal looked to have been offside, will take a deserved 3-0 lead back to Seattle. However, this difference is not insurmountable as RSL’s two starting center backs are out, opening the door for the Sounders and their top ranked offense to make up the goals.

Out east, Sporting KC (#3) grabbed a 2-0 win at Colorado (#9). The Rapids will also be facing numerous injury problems for the return leg in Missouri, while their 0.79 Power Rank deficit makes it likely that Colorado’s title defense will soon come to an end. A slightly (just) more interesting game will take place in Houston as they host the Philadelphia Union. After winning 2-1 in Philly, the Dynamo not only have a goal advantage but two away goals in the bag. The Union have the firepower to potentially come back, but the Power Rank thinks this is unlikely as they’ll be 0.52 goal dogs. Contemplating all the match-ups, the odds are that three of the top four ranked teams will be involved in the conference finals. Check back later in the week when we break down the matches which will determine who plays in the MLS cup final.

MLS 2011 Playoff Preview

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MLS playoffs
More parity than last year
Red Bulls as spoilers?

The MLS regular season has ended, so now it’s time to look at what The Power Rank can tell us about the playoffs. First, the good news: despite the point differential between conferences, in which Eastern Conference champions Sporting KC (#3) would have finished 5th in the Western Conference, there’s actually quite a bit of parity between the conferences. It worked out this year that 5 teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs, and indeed 9 of the rank’s top 10 made the playoffs. The lone exception was Columbus (#11) edging out the Fire (#10), but both play in the east.

Now for the bad news: the true elite teams, LA (#1) and Seattle (#2), both reside in the west, so fans will not be treated to a championship game pitting these sides against each other. This fact alone reveals the foolishness of the playoff system in a league in which each team plays every other team exactly twice. Because of this format, The Power Rank shows that the first playoff match featuring New York (#6) traveling to FC Dallas (#8) might be one of the most critical postseason matches. If Dallas wins, then the winner of Columbus at Colorado (#9) will play LA in the Western Conference semifinals. The Galaxy would be expected to score 0.8 more goals than the Rapids and a whopping 0.98 goals more than the Crew over a two game playoff. In contrast, KC would be favored by only 0.34 goals over Dallas.

However, if New York wins, the situation would be quite different. The Red Bulls are the most underrated squad by points based on their rank. Because they took the final playoff spot, if they beat Dallas, they will play LA. Even so, the Galaxy should still have a 0.62 goal advantage, but KC could potentially have as much as 0.56 goal edge if the Crew pull off the upset. In this bizarre scenario, the Galaxy end up with only a slight advantage over Sporting KC despite besting them by 16 points during the regular season.

Of course, a possible playoff round against the New York could be the least of LA’s concerns. In the one guaranteed marquee match up of the conference semifinals, Real Salt Lake (#4) will take on the Seattle Sounders (Seattle has a 0.5 goal advantage), setting up what could be one of the best matches of the playoffs if LA ends up winning their semifinal. Home field advantage for the Galaxy could be crucial as they would only edge the Sounders by the slightest margins on a neutral field: 0.01 goals. The Eastern Conference playoffs should still be exciting, as Philly is only a 0.12 favorite versus Houston, while KC would only have a 0.10 goal margin if the Union emerge from their semifinal. However, as has been the case for the past few years, the Western Conference champion will most likely be deserving of the MLS cup.

MLS Blog 19 October 2011

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How to determine
Individual awards?
And do they matter?

As the MLS season enters it’s final week, discussion of season awards begins to dominate the airwaves almost as much as talk of the playoffs.  While the playoffs offer a great spectacle, one has to wonder at the value of individual awards in a team sport.  Of all the player honors MLS hands out, two are clearly the most quantitative: the Golden Boot, going to the player who scores the most goals, and the Goalkeeper of the Year.  Typically, the best keeper judged by some combination of their goals allowed average (GAA) and their number of saves.  The GAA metric is clearly not a function only of the keeper, as a strong defense will prevent shots from even coming his way.  While goals scored and saves made are not perfect measures either, they at least correspond to an action taken by a player (albeit at the discount of actions taken by other players).

So the question is:  does having a player who scores a lot of goals or a keeper who makes a lot of saves correspond to being highly ranked?  To answer that question, we performed a regression of rank versus number of goals scored by the most productive player on a team and the number of saves their keeper made.  For an apples to oranges comparison, we considered the total number of saves rather than that by a single keeper, which is reasonable since most teams rely on just one person between the sticks anyway.  While the correlation coefficient for the number of goals scored by the top goal scorer has a coefficient of 0.023, that number is statistically insignificant (for those who care, the R-squared value is 0.058 and the p-value is 0.33).  What this means is we cannot discern a clear connection between having a one good striker and being highly ranked.  Why?  Well strikers don’t score goals, teams score goals, and the object of soccer is to have the team score a lot, not necessarily an individual.  There is also some evidence from other sports that having one good player actually reduces the value of his teammates (see “Wages of Wins” by David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and Stacey Brook).  So while the Golden Boot is fun for fans, having the winner doesn’t guarantee a successful season.

In contrast, measuring the number of saves by a keeper does have a statistically significant impact (R-squared is 0.34, p-value is 0.011):  it correlates to a lower ranking with a coefficient of -0.009.  The statistics indicate this only accounts for part of a team’s performance, but still this result seems counter-intuitive.  However, the reason is quite clear.  A keeper with a lot of saves is a keeper who gets a lot of opportunities to block shots, hence, someone who’s goal is under a lot of pressure.  So a keeper who saves the average percentage of shots will have more saves if he plays behind a poor defense… but opponents will still score more goals.  Hence, measuring the number of saves is actually a better measurement of the incompetence of the team’s defense rather than the skill of the keeper.

However, we can’t resist suggesting a few players worthy of some accolades.  While the Power Rank can’t determine who generated the most value over the course of the season (yet!), it can suggest places to look.  In addition to providing an absolute rank, a team’s offensive and defensive abilities can be individually assessed.  The top 5 teams in each category are in the tables below, with the value being the expected number of goals scored or conceded against an average opponent. 

Defensively, the LA Galaxy (#1) are best by 0.27 goals, so someone on their defensive side would make sense.  Goalkeepers Donovan Rickets and Josh Saunders essentially split the time this year, and the Galaxy tend not to play with someone in a strictly defensive midfield role.  Therefore center-back Omar Gonzalez seems the best choice of this group as the anchor of their defense.

Meanwhile, the top ranked offense is owned by the Seattle Super Sounders (#2).  In terms of standard statistics, two of their players have distinguished themselves:  Fredy Montero (12 goals, 8 assists) and Mauro Rosales (5 goals, 13 assists).  Because they are both so good, it’s hard to declare one of them as being the most valuable, especially when they are only 0.06 goals better than the next best team, DC United (#12).  While Charlie Davies has scored 11 goals for the Screamin’ Eagles, their side really picked up with the addition of Dwayne Derosario.  The Canadian has scored 12 goals for DC along with 7 assists (he also had 3 goals and 5 assists with Toronto (#18) and New York (#6) this year).  These numbers make him a good choice offensively.  Between the two, Gonzalez would be a better honoree because this has been a defensive season, and LA’s defense is so much better than that of their closest competitor.  However, the MVP is often an “Offensive Player of the Year” award (right, Heisman committee?), and DeRo is the likely recipient if United make the playoffs, while Gonzalez is probably going to receive Defensive Player of the Year honors.