Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and wisdom, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Las Vegas, position of first pick – The Raiders have the 7th pick in the NFL draft, and they have a host of needs ranging from a long term solution at QB to offensive line.

However, FanDuel suggests they will go in a different direction. In the market for the 7th pick, they have two cornerbacks at the top:

• Christian Gonzalez +250
• Devon Witherspoon +350

The sum of the break even probability for these two players is 50.7%. Assuming that they don’t trade the pick, this suggests value on Las Vegas to take a cornerback at +175 at DraftKings.

I talked about this bet on Monday on the Covering the Spread podcast, but I feel more confident in it now that the FanDuel market for the 7th pick hasn’t budged all week.

Hendon Hooker draft position – Pro bettor Hitman notes that a large number of respected insiders think Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker goes in the first round. These people include Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, James Palmer and Ian Rappaport. It really does seem like the NFL Network has a monopoly on trusted draft sources.

Based on this information, Hitman thinks that Hooker is more likely to go in the first round than not. This suggests value on +100. You can also take advantage of this insight with over 4.5 quarterbacks in the first round (+102 at FanDuel now but given out to members of The Power Rank at +144).

Follow Hitman on Twitter for all his NFL insights.

Offensive linemen in the first round – As we get closer to the NFL draft on Thursday, April 27, some events get way more certain. It’s not surprising to see markets move into the -400 territory.

On the 5th Year Option podcast, draft expert Drew Dinsick thinks that the number offensive linemen is one of these markets. He thinks over 5.5 should be priced at -900. FanDuel has -440, which suggest value on -380 at DraftKings.

The episode of the 5th Year Option is particularly good, as Luke (@VegasRefund) summarized all the key points from a podcast with respected insiders Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager. For example, Jeremiah will have Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron in the first round in his final mock draft.

Arsenal at Manchester City, Premier League – Arsenal holds a five point edge over Manchester City, but the latter has played two fewer games. Arsenal would have a bigger lead if not for a tie against last place Southampton on Friday.

Based on xG on FBRef.com adjusted for schedule by least squares, here is my prediction for their critical match on Wednesday.

• Manchester City hosting Arsenal – Manchester City has a 54.8% chance to win. Arsenal has a 23.8% chance to win. There is a 21.4% chance for a tie.

The market at Pinnacle like the favorite even more, as Manchester City has a 65% break even probability to win at home.

NFL draft humor – The draft will make you look silly, as this footage 2014 on Johnny Manziel shows. If you don’t have two minutes, start at 1:03 with the infinite wisdom Skip Bayless, who reportedly makes $8 million a year as a commentator.

We should probably ask @merrilhoge for his advice on draft prospects more 👀.

🎥 – safetiesfirst on TikTok. pic.twitter.com/P7kMUSeOwl

— uSTADIUM App (@uSTADIUM) April 13, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Toronto vs Tampa Bay, NHL playoff series – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola notes that Tampa Bay ended the season rather poorly. A expected goals share of 48.8% at 5v5 since the NHL Trade Deadline is the third worst amongst all playoff teams.

Tampa Bay has the edge between the pipes but only due to Andrei Vasilevskiy’s pedigree. Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov has a 21.24 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) this season, the eight best mark in the league.

Despite his hometown bias, Rob likes Toronto +1000 to sweep Tampa Bay. While it is difficult to bet this kind of long shot, weird and random things happen in hockey all the time. Look no further than Columbus sweeping Tampa Bay in the first round at 40 to 1 a few years ago.

Rob’s NHL model also likes Toronto -150 (DraftKings) to win the series against Tampa Bay, which starts on Tuesday. You can get more of Rob’s hockey wisdom on Edge Work, the Hammer’s NHL betting podcast and YouTube channel.

European soccer/football predictions – These predictions come from xG (expected goals at FBRef.com) adjusted for opponent with a least squares algorithm. Let’s first look at two Champions League matches in quarterfinals that are still competitive.

• Inter hosting Benfica (Inter leading 2-0) – Inter has a 38.2% chance to win. Benfica has a 38.4% chance to win. There is a 23.4% chance for a tie. Benfica at 1.6 xG at home compared to 1.4 for Inter; a large chunk of Inter’s xG came from a penalty shot that was hardly earned.
• Napoli hosting Milan (Milan leading 1-0) – Napoli has a 56.1% chance to win. Milan has a 21.6% chance to win. There is a 22.3% chance for a tie. Napoli’s leading goal scorer Victor Osimhen missed the first match and is questionable with a abductor injury.

Let’s also look at an interesting Europa League match.

• Sevilla hosting Manchester Utd (tied 2-2) – Sevilla has a 18.4% chance to win. Manchester Utd has a 59.8% chance to win. There is a 21.7% chance for a tie. Sevilla got quite lucky to equalize in the first match, and ManU had a 1.7 to 0.6 xG advantage.

Golden State at Sacramento, NBA playoffs – Long time winner NBA Guru notes that Sacramento coach Mike Brown knows Golden State inside and out, as he was their lead assistant last year. Teams that know each other often result in low scoring games.

Higher totals tend to go under in the NBA playoffs. Going back 25 years, totals at 230 or higher are 26-15 to the under. These games go under by an average of 6.9 points per game.

Andrew Wiggins will return for this game, which gives Golden State a much needed defensive presence. Sacramento point guard De’Aaron Fox will play his first NBA playoff game, and NBA Guru expects some nerves from him early in the game.

NBA Guru likes under 237 in Golden State at Sacramento. Check out his long term winning record over at Dr. Bob Sports.

Bijan Robinson, NFL draft – Benjamin Robinson isn’t satisfied. Grinding the Mocks, his wisdom of crowds tool to predict the NFL draft, has led to consulting work with NFL teams. However, he is looking to do even better.

On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Benjamin discussed future plans to include NFL big boards into his draft predictions. These big boards look at talent, not the position at which a player will be taken.

Without this big board information, Benjamin thinks his estimate on Texas RB Bijan Robinson’s draft position of 20.4 is too high. He has the talented running back at 8th in his mock draft, and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has Robinson at 14th to New England.

Keep this in mind when Robinson’s draft position appears at the bigger sports books.

Soccer humor – Despite an abundance of money, Chelsea is 11th in the Premier League table and has had the consistency of three managers this season.

pic.twitter.com/Oc4PCcx6gs

— TF Videos (@TF_Video) April 12, 2023

Chelsea got thumped 2-0 at Real Madrid last week. With the return match at home, Chelsea has a 12.5% break even probability to advance at Pinnacle. Chelsea is +700 to advance (12.5% break even probability).

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Champions League predictions – These predictions are based on xG (expected goals from FBRef.com) adjusted for opponent with a least squares algorithm. The calculation includes data from the top five leagues, Portugal (to get more data on Benfica), the Champions League and Europa League.

• Manchester City hosting Bayern Munich – Manchester City has a 59.2% chance to win. Bayern Munich has a 20.5% chance to win. There is a 20.4% chance for a tie.
• Benfica hosting Inter – Benfica has a 50.2% chance to win. Inter has a 27.5% chance to win. There is a 22.2% chance for a tie.
• Milan hosting Napoli – Milan has a 33.1% chance to win. Napoli has a 42.8% chance to win. There is a 24.1% chance for a tie. Napoli top scorer Victor Osimhen is questionable with an injury.
• Real Madrid hosting Chelsea – Real Madrid has a 51.6% chance to win. Chelsea has a 25.0% chance to win. There is a 23.4% chance for a tie.

In the past, I’ve tried doing Europe rankings based on goals, but the results from a single season didn’t make sense. There are a limited number of Champions and Europa League matches to connect the top clubs.

xG is a more stable metric than goals, and these predictions based on xG are close to the markets. This is promising.

Portland at Los Angeles Clippers – Sharp quantitative bettor Drew Dinsick notes how hard Portland is trying to tank. However, this huge Clippers spread is absurd given how well some replacement players have been shooting. (Was that a Kevin Knox sighting?)

This spread gets even tougher to defend if Kawhi Leonard and other key Clippers see reduced minutes with the playoffs on the horizon. Either a surprisingly competitive game or a back door cover are reasonable outcomes.

Drew runs a player based model, and an assumption of 32 minutes for Kawhi coming off a 42 minutes against the Lakers gives the Clippers by 13. Drew likes Portland +17.

Follow Drew on Twitter for all of his NBA, NFL draft and tennis insights.

Will Levis draft position – QB Anthony Richardson lit up the NFL combine, and his draft stock has soared in response. The former Florida QB is the favorite to get picked third.

With the rise of Richardson, the stock of Kentucky QB Will Levis has plummeted. Benjamin Robinson puts together a wisdom of crowds estimator at Grinding the Mocks, and this tool has an average draft position of 11.4 for Levis. The Player Charts feature on Grinding the Mocks show the decline of Levis over time.

In addition, sharp NFL mock drafters like Daniel Jeremiah have Levis going to Tampa Bay with the 19th pick. Maybe the world has realized Levis can’t throw a football with any kind of accuracy. This all suggests value on over 7.5 draft position, and you can get +140 at DraftKings.

The Masters – Brooks Koekpa is on fire with a -12 over two full rounds at Augusta National. However, DataGolf has a different golfer with the best probability to win.

Based on their predictive analytics, Jon Rahm has a 36.7% chance to win compared to 33.1% for Koepka. It helps that Rahm has only completed 11 holes from Round 2, as weather delayed the completion of the round on Friday.

Ann Arbor Analytics Meetup – Tej Seth and I will be hosting a gathering this upcoming week. Come connect with like minded people at Ashley’s at 338 South State Street from 7-10pm on Friday, April 14, 2023.

Golf humor – “Hey look, it’s the Aaron Rodgers of golf,” says Patrick Reed to Rory McIlroy. Yeah, kick a guy when he doesn’t make the cut as the favorite. Annie Agar transitions from putting NFL teams to golfers in an uncomfortable meeting.

The Masters meeting pic.twitter.com/HSQkAsJRo3

— Annie Agar (@AnnieAgar) April 5, 2023

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
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• Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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