Podcast: Adam Stanco on predicting March Madness, Part 2

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is the second of two with Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network. He’s a hoops expert and educates us on:

  • the player that makes Virginia a national title contender
  • whether Gonzaga can make a deep run in the tournament
  • the team with more NBA talent than any other college basketball team, even Duke

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Introducing: Pure Bracket Wisdom

Pure Bracket Wisdom is a daily podcast to get you ready to win your NCAA tournament pool in 2019.

To check out the trailer, click here:

The 10 part daily series launches on March 11th, 2019.  To subscribe on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Adam Stanco on predicting March Madness, Part 1

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network joins me to break down the top college basketball teams.  In this first of two episodes, we get into:

  • Duke, with and without Zion Williamson
  • Whether Michigan has enough offense to make a deep tourney run
  • Whether Michigan or Michigan State has a higher ceiling

Adam is a hoops expert and has an uncanny ability to catch things outside the numbers.  Remember, thirty some games is still a small sample size.

There’s also an announcement for my new March Madness audio project.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Joe Peta on predictive golf analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Joe Peta, writer, data scientist and Stanford MBA, joins me.  Joe cut this teeth on baseball analytics but has recently started working on golf with his book A 2019 Masters Preview.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The political figure Joe did work for as an accountant (2:35 to start Joe’s story)
  • The Strokes Gained framework for evaluating golfers (8:25)
  • How to predict golf tournaments like the Masters (24:38)
  • Why variance plays a much bigger role in golf than team sports, and how this relates to poker (15:10)
  • Evaluating Tiger Woods, both in the past and into 2019 (32:40)

I’ve always respected Joe’s work, and anyone who likes golf or data should enjoy this conversation.  Also, check out his new book A 2019 Masters Preview, which you can consume in one sitting.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

College basketball predictions for 2019

This season, I’m doing things different with my public college basketball predictions.

Usually, the public predictions page at The Power Rank has predictions based on team rankings, which take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule.

If you check out this page in the fall, you get these points based predictions for college football and the NFL.

For college basketball, I’m offering a sample of predictions usually saved for members of The Power Rank. These predictions take the points based predictions and add components based on the markets and preseason expectations. This ensemble approach almost certainly leads to more accurate predictions.

On the public part of my site, you will find a prediction for any game with a top 30 team by my numbers, as well as a random sample of other games.

For example, here are some predictions for Tuesday, February 12th.

Michigan will beat Penn State by 5.3 points on the road.

Michigan has become a defensive juggernaut this season, as they rank 2nd when I take points per possession and adjust for schedule.

Maryland will beat Purdue by 0.1 points at home.

Purdue has won 8 straight games. But don’t count out Maryland, a talented team that ranks in the top 25 by both my points and market based metrics.

Duke will beat Louisville by 6.1 points at home.

Duke has shot 32% from three this season, but they almost doubled this rate (13 of 21) in beating Virginia Saturday night. They won’t shoot that well every game, but they should be the tourney favorite because of their future NBA talent.

To check out all of today’s predictions, click here.

Fresh predictions get posted every morning, so check out that link even if you’re reading this later.