Curt Cignetti took over Indiana in 2024 and had a remarkable season, going 11-1 before a playoff loss at Notre Dame. Usually, when a first year coach takes an awful program to success, the quants expect regression to the program mean.
However, there were signs that Indiana would be great again in 2025. Cignetti still had players from the previous year like WR Elijiah Sarratt and CB D’Angelo Ponds who projected as NFL draft picks. In addition, NFL scouts suggested that transfer QB Fernando Mendoza from California could go as high as the first round.
Last season, Indiana had a historic 16-0 season that ended with a national championship. So much for regression.
Heading into 2026, Indiana seems primed for another elite season. It starts with transfer QB Josh Hoover who had better numbers at TCU than Mendoza at Cal.
Passing success rate is my most trusted QB statistic, as it considers the context of every play. A three yard completion is a success on 4th and 1 but not on 1st and 10.
To compare Hoover and Mendoza, I’ll make adjustments for opposing defenses based on my algorithms at The Power Rank. These calculations account for situations like how Mendoza got to play the ACC’s worst pass defense in 2024 (Wake Forest) but Hoover didn’t play the worst Big 12 defense in 2025 (Oklahoma State).
At Cal, Mendoza was predicted to throw for a passing success rate of 44.8% in 2024, a solid mark compared to the college football average of 40.6%. For Hoover at TCU:
- 2025: 46.0%
- 2024: 47.1%
Hoover might have had worse metrics in 2025, but he lost WR Jack Bech and Savion Williams from the 2024 TCU team to the NFL.
It is nonsense to predict Hoover will do better than Mendoza because of these numbers. Hoover most likely falls short of the Heisman and getting picked first in the NFL draft. However, he does provide as solid a transfer QB as Indiana could have picked up.
There are many other areas of the roster full of excellent players. Here, let’s focus on the defensive line.
The depth chart suggests that two Kansas State transfers, Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi, will start for Indiana in 2026. According to Jordan Reid of ESPN, Osunsanmi is getting midround grades while Obiazor is a late round prospect.
But then three others transfers on the defensive line also project as late round picks: edge Josh Burham (Notre Dame), and tackles Tyrique Tucker (James Madison) and Joe Hjelle (Tulsa). Indiana also needs to find playing time for DT Stephen Daley, another late round prospect who was granted a 5th year of eligibility.
My market model takes win totals and backs out a rating and rank for every team based on its schedule. Indiana ranks 3rd, higher than their 6th in the preseason AP poll.
It would be disappointing if Indiana didn’t challenge Ohio State and Oregon not only for a Big Ten but a national title.
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