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NFL season long player props – Every year, Connor Allen of 4for4 Football posts his analysis on NFL season long player props. Every year, he reminds us that the under wins at an astonishing rate.
This year, Connor offers a new insight: if a player goes over his season long total, he tends to go over by a significant margin. The average margin of going over ranges from 48% for rushing touchdowns to 28% for receiving yards.
Follow Connor Allen for all of his NFL expertise.
NFL receiving yards prop – Washington WR Terry McLaurin suffered through an injury plagued season in 2025. The markets have downgraded McLaurin, as FanDuel has his season prop at 900.5 receiving yards.
In the five seasons prior to 2025, McLaurin never failed to hit 1,000 receiving yards. He had his highest regular season total of 1,118 receiving yards in 2024 with QB Jayden Daniels, another Washington player who suffered through injuries last season. As noted in last week’s newsletter, the Washington receiver room looks weak behind McLaurin, which suggests more targets for the veteran.
There is value in Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards. However, this seems like an opportunity to harness the wisdom of Connor Allen in the previous nugget and take some alternative overs:
- +155 for 1,000+ yards.
- +450 for 1,250+ yards.
These bets are under Player Milestones on the FanDuel app, although I couldn’t find them on the website version.
Ohio State football – The offense was excellent last season as Ohio State ranked 2nd in my adjusted success rate. This unit returns QB Julian Sayin, RB Bo Jackson and four of five starters on the offensive line.
Could the weakness on this offense be the receivers? While Jeremiah Smith is the best wide receiver in college football, Ohio State will then rely on top recruit Chris Henry Jr. and Brandon Inniss, who only had 271 yards on 46 targets last season.
Ohio State has a rich tradition at wide receivers, and I expect their passing game to still thrive this season. But suppose they struggle at Texas in week 2 when the opposition double teams Smith on every play. Then people might ask how much credit former coach Brian Hartline, who left for UCF this past offseason, should get for Ohio State’s recent history at receiver.
LeBron James – The 41 year old veteran made a surprise decision to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers. The consensus is that his addition does not make Philadelphia a title contender. But why?
Coach Thorpe, a writer at TrueHoop, offers an interesting perspective. The Sixers beat Boston in the playoffs this past season, and one reason was how star point guard Tyrese Maxey mentored rookie wing VJ Edgecombe. Even after an awful Game 1 against Boston, Maxey encouraged the young player to keep shooting.
Edgecombe entered the off season with grand plans of becoming a huge part of the future. Then the Sixers acquired star wing Jalen Brown in a trade and signed James. These moves certainly limit his usage this upcoming season and potentially his development.
Check out the excellent NBA coverage at TrueHoop from Henry Abbott and others.
College football humor – The SEC has not won a national championship the past three season, and now teams face a 9 game conference schedule instead of 8 in past seasons. In response to the chatter during SEC media days, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti responded by saying, “We don’t run a hype machine up here in the Midwest. We believe everything is earned not given. And when we fall short, we say we fell short. We don’t cry a river, whine and complain.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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Claiming the high ground on ‘no whining’ is rich coming from a guy whose entire competitive advantage was fielding an entry-level NFL roster in a college conference. Cignetti is a loud mouth who average starters age last year was 23. Must be tough playing against those 18 and 19 year old kids.