Looking for sharp World Cup betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Programming note: I’m on vacation next week, so I’ll be sending my annual recommendations email on July 4th. I’ll be back with the regular 5-Nuggets on July 11.
Colombia vs Portugal – Tim Lawson, who goes by The Bettor Life on X, bets on soccer outside of the World Cup. For this match, he notes that Portugal’s true skill is somewhere between their lackluster draw with Congo and domination of Uzbekistan.
Colombia was able to generate 0.98 against Congo, more than the 0.65 of Portugal (data from Opta). Colombia wants to win but should be satisfied with a draw since they lead Portugal by two points in the standings.
Tim likes Colombia +0.5 which gives you the double chance to win with either a Colombia win or draw. He sent me this bet at -110. The market has moved to -130 (DraftKings) but there is still value. As always, shop around for the best number for this match at 7:30pm Eastern on Saturday.
United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina – As group winners, the USMNT got a tremendous gift in playing Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32. This team ranks 74th in my latest world football/soccer rankings which consider international matches since 2022 and adjusts for strength of schedule.
Bosnia-Herzegovina might have advanced out of Group B but never generated more than 1.0 xG in any of three matches, even against lowly Qatar. They have had good fortune in scoring 5 goals on 1.87 xG.
Against the USMNT, look for these players to make a contribution:
- Center back Tarik Muharemovic plays for Serie A Sassuolo club at 23 years old.
- Winger Kerim Alajbegovic scored his first World Cup goal against Qatar at 18 years old.
My model gives a 79% chance for the USMNT to advance to the Round of 16. Check out the predictions page for the advancement odds for all teams.
Fading Croatia – In 2026, Croatia is old and uninspiring. Against Panama, they started 40 year old Luka Modric and 32 year old Mateo Kovacic in midfield. At left wing, 37 year old Ivan Perisic roamed in the final third.
England thrashed Croatia 4-2 in the first match of this World Cup with the strong underlying fundamentals of 3.34 xG. England followed this up with 1.36 xG in a 0-0 draw with Ghana, which reflects poorly on Croatia.
I sent Ghana to beat Croatia at +490 to members of The Power Rank yesterday. The market has moved to Ghana +410 but there is still value as I would estimate the win probability at 24%.
Breakout NFL wide receiver – In an NFL ruled by pass offenses, nothing helps a a team quite like a breakout wide receiver. Finding such a player has obvious fantasy football implication as well.
To find the next possible breakout player, let’s search the data for a wide receiver with two criteria:
- solid efficiency numbers last season (better yards per route run than 1.5, the NFL average for wide receivers)
- optimal age for wide receivers (ages 23 to 27 according to the work of Timo Riske at PFF)
An interesting player to satisfy these criteria is 25 year old Tyquan Thornton of Kansas City. The 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL draft struggled with injuries in three seasons with New England before getting released in 2024.
In 2025, Thornton had a promising 1.7 yards per route run with Kansas City in a limited role. That could increase with an aging Travis Kelce and the legal problems of Rashee Rice.
World Cup humor – “Amazing! I love it.” There have been so many social media clips of people discovering American food for the first time, but this Japanese dude is my favorite.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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