Looking for sharp World Cup betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Ecuador vs Curacao – Curacao allowed 7 goals against Germany in their first World Cup match, and this is likely impacting a market heavily shaded to over 2.5 goals against Ecuador. However, there are reasons to think goals will be scarce in this match.
- Ecuador is a defensive team that allowed only 5 goals in South American qualifying, by far the lowest total. During qualifying, they allowed two goals in four matches against Argentina and Brazil.
- Curacao’s four defenders play for clubs in Europe, mostly in the top league in the Netherlands.
My model based on international matches since 2022 predict 1.91 goals in this match. Along with the factors above, this suggests value in Ecuador vs Curacao under 2.5 goals, +156 available at FanDuel.
All of my World Cup match predictions are available at The Power Rank.
United States men’s national team – The USMNT has already won Group D, and the offense has sparkled with 6 goals in two matches. However, let’s put these goals in perspective.
- The US benefitted from an own goal against both Paraguay and Australia. While the offense generated a decent opportunity in each case, the defenders could easily have done better.
- Folarin Balogun’s first goal against Paraguay came off a deflected pass from Christian Pulisic that landed right on his strong foot. While this shot generated 0.16 expected goals (xG), there was good fortune in this outcome.
According to Opta data, the United States has generated 2.5 xG in these two matches. There is some good fortune in scoring six goals based on these opportunities.
As group winner, the USMNT most likely gets Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32 and then an aging Belgium in the Round of 16. There is a reasonable path to the quarterfinals.
Germany World Cup future – A blue blood of international soccer with four World Cups victories, Germany has not made it out of the group stage since winning in 2014. However, let’s not discount this team because of the last two World Cups.
Germany showed more strength in a friendly win over the United States than their 7-1 dismantling of Curacao. Kai Havertz could have had a second goal against had a ball not barely gone out of bounds. He and Jamal Musiala give the Germans two powerful offensive weapons.
Germany’s more recent problems have been on defense, as they rank 17th in my world football/soccer rankings based on international matches since 2022. However, center back Jonathan Tah easily snubbed out any attacks from the United States, the same offense that dominated a solid Paraguay team.
My player model based on FC 26 ratings has Germany as the 5th best team in the World Cup. They are not as talented as Spain and France, but they have a high ceiling because of their quality players. There is value in Germany at 13-1 to win the World Cup, but shop for better prices on prediction markets like Kalshi.
Oregon football – Since 2023, Oregon is 1-5 against teams that played in the national championship:
- two losses Washington in 2023
- 1-1 vs Ohio State in 2024
- two losses to Indiana in 2025
Oregon is 37-0 against everyone else, notes Bill Connelly of ESPN in his Big Ten preview.
Oregon is poised to break out with a national championship in 2026, as QB Dante Moore returns after turning down the NFL. He will be joined by an abundance returning talent on both offense and defense. For example, key contributors from last season CB Brandon Finney Jr. and S Aaron Flowers were both freshman.
Oregon’s biggest challenge will be replacing both coordinators. Dan Lanning promoted from within, and Bill has Oregon 2nd behind Ohio State in his preseason college football rankings. Follow all of Bill’s work in both college football and soccer.
World Cup humor – The Tartan Army has captured America’s imagination as they support Scotland at the World Cup. A duck only enhances the charm (:20).
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