Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA player prop – Jalen Williams of Oklahoma City strained his left hamstring in game 2 of the series with San Antonio. He missed game 3, and it seems like the Thunder should be cautious with their young star because he re-aggravated the same injury from earlier this month.
If Williams doesn’t play in game 3, this implies more minutes for Jared McCain and Cason Wallace. Both went over their points prop in game 2 without Williams, but McCain’s 24 point outburst has moved his points prop up two points.
The market actually went down for Wallace, who has averaged 8.6 points in 26 minutes during the regular season. With an potential increase in minutes, there is value in Cason Wallace over 6.5 points, -130 available at FanDuel (game Sunday at 8pm Eastern).
Portland at Toronto, WNBA – This Saturday night game (6pm Eastern) features the two expansion teams in the league this season.
There should be a lot of points, as both teams rank in the bottom four in defense by points per possession allowed. Both teams are better on offense, and Toronto ranks 7th in points per possession out of 15 teams despite an awful opening game against Washington.
In addition, this game should be played at a high tempo, especially since Portland has been pressing. Assuming about 85 possessions for both teams, league average efficiencies (probably an underestimate) give 182 points. There is value in Portland at Toronto over 175.5 points, -108 available at FanDuel.
Super Bowl favorite – Seattle is the defending NFL champion. With the return of QB Sam Darnold, it seems like they should be favored again in 2026.
Let’s check this with my NFL preseason market model. In this calculation, I take market win totals and back out a rating and rank based on a team’s schedule. Five other teams have a win total of 10.5 like Seattle, but the Seahawks are highest rated among these five teams because of a tough NFC West division.
However, this market model only has Seattle second behind the Los Angeles Rams, who added two excellent cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. If 38 year old QB Matthew Stafford holds up, the Rams should be the Super Bowl favorite as Seattle must deal with the losses of CB Tariq Woolen and S Coby Bryant.
Check out the full NFL preseason market rankings on the public part of The Power Rank.
My appearance on College Football Betting 900 – This week, I joined Korey Betts on this podcast for an in depth conversation on process. Among other topics, we discussed:
- Why I don’t bet my model alone (most of the time)
- Whether AI will dominate sports betting
- Why NFL spreads might be easier than college football spreads
Check out this conversation on Spotify and X (Twitter).
Basketball humor, life lesson – On the New Heights podcast, Shaquille O’Neal told the story of his first dunk. As a junior in high school, he missed a finger roll lay up in a game.
During a timeout, Shaq’s dad took him outside into the hall and smacked him upside the head (or whatever Shaq meant by “WAPP” on the podcast). “F*ck Magic Johnson. You’re Shaquille O’Neal, start dunking that sh*t. I’m tired of watching that sh*t.”
Shaq tells the coach to give him the ball, and he dunks it. His dad celebrates in the stands. “That’s what the f*ck I’m talking about.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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