Looking for sharp sports betting action for the NFL draft this week? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Big Ten players drafted – From Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza to Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr., there are 10 Big Ten players almost certain to get taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft. However, the chances for more than 10 get pretty slim.
The next two Big Ten players likely to get drafted are Ohio State DT Kaden McDonald and Washington WR Denzel Boston. While either could go in the 1st round, it seems unlikely that both go and bring the total to 12. There is value in Big Ten players under 11.5 players drafted in the 1st round, -125 at DraftKings.
To understand the value in this bet, I asked both Matt Freedman and Luke Swain for an NFL draft bet.
- Matt is a draft expert at Fantasy Life with a big board and updated mock (also check out the Fantasy Life Draft Guide).
- Luke, a bettor who goes by Vegas Refund, has an incredible mock draft spreadsheet (paid) that many bettors, including myself, use.
Both independently gave me this bet. Grab it now.
First wide receiver drafted – Ohio State’s Carnell Tate was widely expected to be the first wide receiver drafted. However, many consider Jordyn Tyson out of Arizona State the most talented wide receiver in this draft class. He has been behind Tate in most mock drafts because of an awful history of injuries.
Tyson’s stock is up after a successful workout on Friday attended by 18 NFL teams. A large fraction of mock drafts have Tate going to Cleveland with the 6th pick. However, NFL insider Evan Silva on the Establish the Run podcast said that he will replace Tate with OT Spencer Fano in his next mock draft.
This suggests value in Jordyn Tyson +200 as the first wide receiver drafted (price at FanDuel). The payout on this bet has gotten worse over the past few days, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Tyson rises to the favorite when the NFL draft starts on Thursday.
Detroit Pistons – Professional NBA bettor Eddie Walls lamented that he’s never seen a 60 win, top seed get as disrespected as much the Pistons. No one thinks Detroit will make the Finals despite:
- All NBA star in Cade Cunningham, who has played 3 games in returning from a collapsed lung.
- The best two way center in the conference in Jalen Duren.
- A top 3 defensive efficiency, which makes them built for the playoffs.
The markets support this disrespect, as Boston and Cleveland have better odds to make the Finals out of the Eastern Conference. These two teams did add star players in Jayson Tatum (coming back from an Achilles injury for Boston) and James Harden (traded to Cleveland at 36 years old) recently.
World Cup rankings by player ratings – Transfermarkt uses both community and expert opinion to rate players across the world, a wisdom of crowds approach. Their team rankings based on players is worth looking at in predicting the World Cup, which starts in two months.
In these numbers, Portugal ranks as the 4th best team in the world. Forget about a 41 year old Cristiano Ronaldo and consider these top players:
- Vitinha – playmaking midfielder for Paris St.-Germain (PSG), the best team in the world last season and a Champions League semi-finalist this season.
- Bruno Fernandes – another playmaking midfielder for Manchester United.
- Nuno Mendes – left back for PSG considered the best in the world at his position.
Player ratings will be an important part of my analysis for the World Cup.
Humor – It’s hilarious when Steve Harvey slaps a dude on Family Feud. How to end a relationship on national TV (:21).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply