Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College basketball player prop – Melvin Council is a solid, veteran guard who transferred to Kansas from St. Bonaventure this season. While he has played well most of the season, he has only averaged 8.3 points in his last three games.
This presents an opportunity, as Council has been much better the rest of the season. He has averaged 14.0 points in Big 12 games, and his minutes did not go down in the past three games. A simple model projects 12.8 points for Council against Arizona today, and who knows when another Darryn Peterson cramp will lead to more shots for Council.
There is value in Melvin Council over 11.5 points, -120 at FanDuel. Kansas travels to Arizona in huge Big 12 game that tips at 4pm Eastern.
Top down NBA betting – The SharpStack +EV tool uses data from sharp sportsbooks to find value at other books. Here are a few NBA player props today with value.
- Marcus Smart under 7.5 points, -106 at DraftKings. Other books like FanDuel have 6.5 points for this prop. Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State tips at 8:30pm Eastern.
- Cody Williams under 3.5 rebounds, -140 at BetMGM. Other books have 2.5 rebounds or a higher price for under 3.5 rebounds. New Orleans at Utah tips at 9:30pm Eastern.
- Brandin Podziemski under 6.5 rebounds, -138 at FanDuel. Most other books have 5.5 rebounds for the Golden State guard.
These props do move fast, so grab them while you can. Use the code thepowerrank to get 25% off SharpStack.
Live by the three, die by the three – Alabama coach Nate Oats has embraced analytics, and he recognizes that three points is greater than two. Alabama teams under Oats have always shot a lot of threes, but they have leveled up their three point rate this season.
Alabama has taken 54.3% of their field attempts from three this season, the most in the nation. This is big jump from their 46.6% from last season. Guard Labaron Philon has taken over with the highest usage on the team and has taken 150 threes already this season.
My member numbers have Alabama ranked 12th in the nation, and they face a tough road test at Tennessee. Philon missed their last game due to injury but seems likely to play. My best prediction has Tennessee by 2.7 points at home.
The nasty trick the NFL Combine plays on you – After running a 4.29 second 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine, Matthew Golden shot up NFL draft boards. The data of Benjamin Robinson shows how Golden’s draft stock rose after the combine, and Green Bay took him with the 23rd pick of the 1st round.
Golden had a solid rookie year with 445 receiving yards on 33 receptions despite dealing with injuries. While he may still become a star, the NFL has not been as kind to other speedsters like John Ross and Henry Ruggs.
In general, a wide receiver’s 40 yard dash time has very little ability to predict NFL performance. Be cautious as you watch the wide receivers run at the NFL Combine on Saturday.
Football humor – “If you get this one, I will die.” Alex Trebek roasts the Jeopardy nerds who know nothing about American football in a hilarious 1:30.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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