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College basketball player prop – March comes early, as Michigan and Duke play a neutral site game in Washington DC at 6:30pm Eastern. In this game with the top two teams in my member rankings, my best model has Michigan by 2.6 points.
To find value, let’s look to Michigan wing Trey McKenney. Even though he doesn’t start, McKenney is arguably the best wing player on this team. The freshman is not afraid to shoot the basketball.
The market have McKenney’s points prop at 9.5 points because of his season long average of 10.0 points. However, in his last eight games, the freshman has not played less than 20 minutes and has only failed to hit double digit points once.
There is value in Trey McKenney over 9.5 points, -105 available at FanDuel.
NBA spread on Sacramento at San Antonio – Carl Sack is a long time professional NBA bettor. He is seeing value in this game that features a top 5 team in San Antonio hosting a Sacramento team in tank mode.
The market has hung a huge number with San Antonio -18. However, there are many reason to take the huge underdog no matter how ugly.
San Antonio has no reason to win by margin, and Carl expects the Kings to play their best possible line up given their injury situation. In addition, a number of trends in favor of Sacramento. For example, teams who are double digit road dogs and coming off a double digit home loss have covered 57.2% over the last 30 years
There is value in Sacramento +18 at San Antonio. Check out all of Carl’s work over at KillerCappers.com.
Arizona at Houston, College Basketball – Two teams with national championship aspirations meet in a huge Big 12 clash. My member numbers have Houston by a point at home. However, there is an important injury situation.
Arizona freshman big Koa Peat has a lower leg strain and will not play. He also missed the last game against BYU, and my prediction (Arizona by 9.5) matched the closing market (Arizona -10). However, Houston is another level up from BYU.
The market has moved from Houston -4.5 to -5.5 at home against Arizona, a strong indicator the strength of this Houston team.
United State vs Canada, Olympic men’s hockey final – The Winter Olympics end with a banger of a hockey game. The Athletic uses a player based model from Dom Luszczyszyn to come up with a prediction for this final.
Team Canada has the stars, as Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have the highest net ratings by this model. In contrast, the United States left a few top goal scorers at home but makes up for it with a strong team.
Overall, The Athletic model gives Canada a 51% chance to win the gold medal, which assumes Sydney Crosby plays after missing the semi-final. The market has moved towards Canada (-125 to win at FanDuel). It should be a fun, competitive final.
Follow Dom Luszczyszyn for all of his hockey analytics and betting insights.
Sports humor – ESPN really did make the best commercials back in the day. The :30 Michael Jordan commercial is understated and perfect.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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