Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College basketball prop – Texas Tech travels to Arizona for a huge Big 12 game at 6:30pm Eastern tonight. Members of The Power Rank have had access to my prediction of Arizona by 9 since yesterday (market Arizona -9.5).
For a bet on this game, let’s look at Arizona guard Jayden Bradley. He’s the steady veteran presence on a team with high upside players like freshman guard Brayden Burries and freshman big Koa Peat.
FanDuel has Bradley at +102 for 1+ threes, a market most likely impacted his 2 three pointers in his last eight games. Bradley has made 35.3% of his threes the past two seasons.
Based on a simple projection, I would predict 0.56 threes in this game. There is value in Jayden Bradley at +102 to make a three pointer.
Winter Olympics – Abnormally Dist is a former machine learning academic who became a professional sports bettor. You can learn more about him in my article The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals.
On his X account, Abnormal has been posting numbers on the Winter Olympics. For example, his numbers show value on Paula Moltzan at 12-1 to win the women’s giant slalom on Sunday, February 15. He also has prices for match ups if you can find a market for those.
Check out Abnormally Dist on X if you’re looking for sharp numbers on the Winter Olympics.
College basketball rankings – I have a number of different ways that I rank college basketball teams, and these methods give different answers on the best team in college basketball.
- Data from the current season. Whether I look at margin of victory or points per possession, Arizona is the top team.
- Market data. I take closing point spreads and adjust for strength of schedule. More recent games matter more, and Duke is the top team.
- Member model which uses both game and market data. This is similar to my college football model that tends to react quickly to recent performance, and Michigan is the top team.
For the next week, get free access to my member college basketball rankings, which also allows you to make predictions. These rankings will update on Monday and Friday.
North Dakota State football – In one of my daily minute videos, I looked at how North Dakota State football might fare in the Mountain West conference this upcoming 2026 football season. In the past six seasons not including 2020, North Dakota State would have been the highest ranked team in three of the past six seasons.
However, I missed that Boise State is leaving the Mountain West for the Pac-12. Without this excellent program, North Dakota State would have been the top Mountain West team in four of these six seasons. In addition, the 2024 Boise State with RB Ashton Jeanty that made the college football playoff was the only team in those six seasons significantly better than North Dakota State.
Some other of my minute videos looked at the problem with undefeated Miami (OH) basketball and how high Michigan basketball should be ranked.
Olympics humor – Male ski jumpers are using penile enhancement to gain an edge.
Ski suits are tightly regulated, as any increase in surface area can give an edge in lift. Male ski jumpers are injecting their penis with hyaluronic acid before getting fitted for a suit.
“Poor injection technique or incorrect dose would cause penile pain, disfigurement, deformity, infection, inflammation, sensory change, and sexual dysfunction.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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