Looking for sharp Super Bowl prop action? Your curated list of bets and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Stefon Diggs receiving props – On the Establish the Run podcast, NFL expert Evan Silva made the case for New England WR Stefon Diggs.
Diggs has been quiet lately, but he plays over half of his snaps from the slot. This could mean a lot of opportunities against a Seattle defense that doesn’t allow many deep throws. Evan also notes that Diggs has caught 83% of his targets this season.
There are many ways to take advantage of this match up, but Evan talked about ladders, which means betting 40+ receiving yards all the way up to 80+ receiving yards. As an example, FanDuel has +118 for Stefon Diggs 50+ receiving yards.
Tackle and assist prop – Ryan Noonan at 4for4 is the expert at NFL tackle props, as he has won over 60% of his bets the past four seasons. I’ve tried to get his tackle insights into 5-Nuggets, but the market wasn’t mature enough by Saturday morning this season.
That changes for the Super Bowl. Ryan’s model gives a 62% chance that rookie Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori goes over 5.5 tackles and assists. The rookie should see plenty of opportunities on short routes, as the Seattle defense has not allowed many deep throws this season.
There is value in Nick Emmanwori over 5.5 tackes and assists, -138 at FanDuel. Check out Ryan’s complete write up on X for more.
Total number of players to throw a pass – The best markets to find value are those which only appear for the Super Bowl. On that same Establish the Run podcast, Adam Levitan discussed whether any player besides Drake Maye and Sam Darnold will throw a pass.
Only rookie WR Efron Chism III has thrown a pass for New England this season, and he might not be active for this game. For Seattle, Cooper Kupp threw a pass this season that got intercepted. In all of his Super Bowl appearances as offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels only let one player throw one pass besides Tom Brady: Julian Edelman threw one pass.
Adam likes total number of players to record a pass attempt under 2.5, -170 at FanDuel. I also owe Adam a personal thanks for getting Tetairoa McMillan at 10-1 to win NFL offensive rookie of the year, which won on Thursday. Follow all of Adam Levitan’s insights on the Establish the Run podcast.
More Super Bowl props in minute videos – I’ve been posting minute videos on social media this season, and these have continued with Super Bowl props this week.
Mack Hollins got off the injury report this week, which prompted a play on over 2.5 receptions. Then I learned that I’m on the opposite side of respected pro bettor Hitman on this bet, which is terrifying.
Still, the benefit of having a sharp on the other side is that the market doesn’t move. Not so for my prop on Hunter Henry, as over 3.5 receptions has moved from -114 to -128 on FanDuel.
I’ll post at least one more Super Bowl prop before the game. You can follow on X, YouTube or TikTok.
Football humor – Josh Allen used a golf ball with Tom Brady’s picture from his infamous NFL combine. However, Brady got the last laugh in this :27 clip.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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